South Dakota Tom

I think any potential Miami trade will come down to the internal assessment of Alex Kiriloff's wrist - if they believe in him, I could see the Arraez/Kepler deal, but would rather have multiple years of Luzardo than 2 of Lopez.

I believe it is a team option either way - it "locks in" if he gets 550 ABs.

Something else this does is open up the “come see what we got” cupboard. Brings attention and potential competitive bidding to our whole roster. Makes trades possible if it is perceived you have an excess supply.

I agree that Max's trade value is low right now, and I like his ability to bounce back and become either very valuable relative to his salary and options, in which case we keep him, or at least "more valuable" for purposes of a mid-season trade. I think, given Buxton's injury history that having Max as a really good fielding RF is important and creates the least drop-off when Max goes to CF. Don't know how much the shift changes are going to impact his BA, but right now the "perception" is that they won't very much, and that's a reasonable gamble to say that it will and bank on his defense and a little better contact (and comfort at the plate, as he's no longer trying to steer his contact in directions his swing doesn't want to go). Hey, the best time to trade Max Kepler was the winter of '19 - not now. The clearest way I see to clean this up (over and above the CC acquisition as an offseason move) is a trade of Arraez for someone like Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins (pretty equivalent values on Cot's). That would open up 1B for Kiriloff on a full-time basis, give us 4 years of control over a young starter who finished '22 pretty well and could profile into any starting rotation with cost control. We haven't sold high on a player in a long time.

I've made pleas (well, at least loud suggestions) that the Twins can perform best by snatching the second-tier free agents, starting about a week from now and on through January. Once the top FAs are gobbled up by big spenders, there are relative bargains available. Those remaining jobless will start to look to solidify the available offers and choose among them. No one (short of a handful) want to begin February without a pretty clear view of where he will play. Once half the teams in the league have hit their theoretical ceilings on payroll, the remaining teams compete against fewer suitors. On the other hand, there comes a point pretty early in the process where all the best players are gone. A team resorts to second-tier FAs or gutting the farm system in order to make substantial improvements (at least from outside the organization). A dozen or so teams must always swim in this end of the pool - counting on internal improvement, player development, and trades of even moderately-priced veterans in order to continue to stock the minors until a group of them simultaneously catches fire and opens a window of contention. The Twins can continue, and probably with moderate success, to exist in that middle strata. Wait until the biggest markets buy up the best players and hit their spending caps, and then use their now-relatively-grand spending power to elbow out the also-rans for the pick of the remaining crop. If a team is uber-successful in identifying the best of that second tier of talent, bargains are out there, and a combination of bargains can set a team up for a season or two. With the needs of the team this year, however, my tune is changing. The players we need don't reside completely in the aftermath of the early shakeout period. We need a high-end RH hitting outfielder. We need a job-sharing catcher. We need one more frontline starter. We need at least one (more) superstar in the field to plug into the top three in the daily lineup. My path to that end is riskier, certainly, than the middle-of-the-pack strategy outlined above. It starts with Rodon. 4 yrs/$110M. If we can get Correa for 10/$300, that's next. If not, pivot to Xander at 6/$175. That's adding $60M/yr already, and I want Haniger and Vasquez, which means I'm trading Kepler (he's the most expensive of the surplus of LH OFs) and Arraez (don't trust his knees or defense) to gain a couple more high-upside arms to help bolster the starting pitching pipeline. I assume we'd still be adding a total of $70M to the payroll, pushing $160M. And I'm (I know, I know) bringing back an old friend - highly motivated on a 1-year prove-it deal. I like the lineup - Buxton, Polanco, Bogaerts, Haniger, Kiriloff, Miranda, Larnach, Sano, Vasquez/Jeffers. I like the rotation - Rodon, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan (with Ober, Winder, SWR, Paddack, Varland, Enlow, Catarino, Balazovic behind) and some from that group as middle relief. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Xander Bogaerts ($29.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Mitch Haniger ($12.00M) DH: Miguel Sano ($3.0M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($4.65M) Backup C: Christian Vasquez ($8.0M) SP1: Carlos Rodon ($27.5M) SP2: Sonny Gray ($12.0M) SP3: Tyler Mahle ($8.0M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Kenta Maeda ($9.0M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Ronny Henriquez ($0.70M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) RP: Emilio Pagan ($4.0M) Payroll is 8.71% over budget

I think the "if this guy's our SS, we're doomed" logic is misplaced. We've got money to spend, but if you spend $35M/yr on Correa, now we're down to $15M to address catcher, SP, RP, and RH OF. It sure strikes me that depth at C, SP, RP and RH OF are far worse than depth at SS, if you look beyond the first half of 2023. Some things are going to have to work out right for this team to win - it won't happen if you dedicate 75% of your available capital on a SS, especially one on a long contract. If we're going to be truly good, Lewis (and I'm betting on Brooks Lee) will be the stalwart SS on the team. We add 1 above-Gray SP, 1 above-Alcala/Lopez RP, a 2nd catcher, and a Haniger-type RF, and hope/trust that Jeffers, Arraez, Polanco, Lewis/Lee, Miranda, Kiriloff/Larnach, Buxton, Haniger, with a rotating DH and a Farmer, Gordon, 2nd catcher, Lewis/Lee (we'll see who actually moves to 4th OF, probably not either of these guys) backstock is enough. 3 yrs of deGrom at $35M, trade for a Jays catcher, trade Kepler to add 1 name to the Duran, Lopez, Alcala, Jax, Thielbar, Moran, Sands, Winder, Ober, Pagan relief pile, keeping at least 2 of them for 2+-inning stints. deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan (Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Canterino). You don't like that team? I haven't booked it on Roster Resource, but I'm thinking $50M between deGrom (who is probably closer to $40M) and Haniger, shed Kepler and save a few dollars getting a young RP, trade for a catcher, we're still under budget.

Omar Narvaez, Tucker Barnhart, both bat left-handed (as do Stephen Vogt and Jason Castro but I'm leaving them off this list). I think Sean Murphy from the A's (who want to get Langaliers more playing time) might be a worthwhile investment and is not yet 28. We do need depth at that position, so something is going to happen.

I would love to see a Sean Murphy signing now that the A’s brought up Langaliers. I don’t think CC is signing up again either (though it is possible) but I feel like they’ll use Palacios or even Urshela as SS until Lewis is ready and hope that they can rotate AK, Arraez, and Miranda at 1b. Miranda plays 3rd, or Urshela. If Larnach is healthy and we have Celestino and Gordon to sub in the OF, I don’t see any more position player moves. As many have said, structure the bullpen to have 3-4 multi-inning guys (1x through the order), some of whom you can rotate between AAA and the big club and 4-5 more 1-inning guys, all but one of whom you are willing to waive if they aren’t pitching well so you don’t get stuck with big contracts and clogged lineups. If any reasonable combination of Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Ober, Winder, Paddock, Maeda, make up a starting 5, those relievers become crucial. My personal opinion is that flexibility and numbers of arms are more important than “going out and getting two veterans.”

Until injuries take us down a different path, I think we keep 14 pitchers through May. That means Garlick and Godoy (once Sanchez is ready to catch regularly) go down. Celestino goes down when Kiriloff is available, leaving Gordon, Arraez, Larnach, and Sanchez beyond the primary 8 in the field to be DH and bench. Good question, too, as to which of those gets added when we have to have 13 position players at end of next month Lots more questions when Sonny returns - one of the starting six is going to have to move into the shoes of Winder as long reliever #1, and then Winder returns when/if a starter goes down (probably back to long relief with the #6 starter back in the rotation, with Winder being starter #7). When we're capped at 13 pitchers at the end of May, you are going to be down to one long man (demoted 6th starter) and Jax goes down as we'll need 7 one-inning guys (right now Smith, Duffey, Coulombe, Duran, Thielbar, Stashak and Pagan). Can't have six starters and two long relievers with a 13-man pitching staff. Does Winder take the place of one of the short guys? Does Jax?

Reaction on WS media won’t be pretty. Someone mentioned something about “kicking it around” IIFC.

For the old man record, it was George “Scrap Iron” Gadaski. I remember a Saturday morning when he got to beat Nick Bockwinkle. Our jaws dropped.

Some things are going to have to go right for the team. One pitcher coming up and dominating would be necessary to any recipe for (ultimate) success, and probably a second stalwart #4+ along with playoff-worthy starters among the 1-4 we already have. You think a frontline starter is coming along who is gonna get inexpensive as the year rolls on? Best chance of that is a rental (my preference) in the Doyle Alexander mode. Best part is that we can do both. Adding that final piece becomes good strategy on a team that is one piece away, but this whole thing never happens without one or two young pups pitching nosebleed baseball.

All these issues dovetail together. You use Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Strotman, early in the season, you are maximizing their major league innings but push them into a place they may not be ready for. You sign Cueto or Archer, those next-man-up players are going to use up their innings in the minors. Under both scenarios, they aren't available later in the season, as none of them has a sufficient workload track record to produce an entire season of starting pitching. Do you rely on other teams fading, and other pitchers becoming available (and affordable) later in the season? We might not like it, but I think the team views the combination of a 28-man roster and the additional off-days through the first month to avoid having to make any decision at all (unless something falls into their laps). Just hope that they are still competitive and don't get off to a 2021-like start and their season is finished in the first month. I see them using Jax, Cotton, Stashak, and Thorpe to open or fill in innings in the early part of the season, when fewer spot starts are needed. Then they promote one of Balazovic, Duran, Strotman, Winder or Enlow (or others) or rotate some combination of those guys. Given that each one can be sent back down 5 times, it appears you can rotate five guys five times each every five days gives you 125+ days of baseball even if each guy only starts one game. You would like to think that some of them will do well enough as a 5th starter to justify multiple starts before being rotated back out again. With careful management of their innings in the minors (2-3 inning starts, 50-60 pitch limits) that might stretch an entire season. These things do have a way of working themselves out - someone from the minors elevates into a clear starter (Canterino, Varland, Henriquez, Sands, Woods Richardson), or Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Strotman levels up successfully. We're going to need some of that to happen in almost any set of circumstances.

Twins need a 15-man bullpen. Every contract they sign with a 40-man guarantee is one less spot to rotate or test young starters in short stints. They need to pick a path (and as much as we are skeptical I think they are). No way to sign these guys plus run 5-7 arms up and down. I like the selections here but deny that we can maximize our burgeoning corps and any hope for the future with every “win now” roster-block we add.

I liked this the most of any I have read. Lots of moves but the shaken-up team has a lot of upside. Maybe I just like trades more than FA signings. Thanks for taking your shot!

Rosenthal had an interesting article today in the Athletic about promoting starting pitching by limiting the size of a pitching staff, and losing your DH when you pull your starter, but I think the greatest impact is going to be on pitching. I can see the Twins using a Rays-like deployment of pitchers, having perhaps 4 or 5 starters who go 5, then spreading the innings among the remaining 8-9 "relievers." Given that the chances of us obtaining 5 starters (meaning, at least 3 "new" starters) who average 5 innings each is remote, we need several 2-3 inning guys. Maybe 150 innings is the new 200. Anyway, if we get 5 starters who get to 150 innings (and I know it won't be the same 5 guys all season), we still need about 670 innings from the relievers (and that's assuming we lose half our road games so I'm averaging 8.75 innings/game). Trotting Duffy, Alcala and Rogers out for an inning each every other game is only going to cover 250 of those, so somewhere we need 420 innings out of the remaining 5. I think the only way we get there is to have 10 guys, including the ones with options who float between AAA and MLB, keeping arms fresh. The list has a lot of those guys on it, though - Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Duran, Woods-Richardson, Strotman, Smeltzer, Barnes, Dobnak, Stashak, Thielbar, Jax, etc. They can potentially have these guys get their feet wet pitching 2-3 inning stints, and if one or more shows that he should be in the top-5, so much the better. I'm guessing we won't have 5 locked-in starting spots at any point in the season for longer than a couple of weeks. Assuming they don't increase the roster size, or if they do, imposing a 13-pitcher limit, we are going to have a short bench, and (as mentioned above) with the need for positional flexibility and rotating time off, we would have a difficult time using a full-time DH. Arraez, Donaldson, Garver, Sano playing or DH'ing 5 times a week with one day off (coupled with the pitching strategy set forth above) is the most Baldellian of tactics.

The "dump so-and-so" trade philosophies are the opposite of my thinking. Sano? You'd be selling low. Kepler? Same. The sell-high candidates right now are Buxton, Polanco, Miranda and possibly Donaldson (esp if there is an NL DH), and since I want my team to be actually good, I think the only one of those that I would actively shop would be JD. Yes, we would eat some salary, but it would open up 3b for Miranda, extra Arraez at-bats, and if Sano does actually shed 30 pounds, he can play there as well on occasion. I agree with the one-year SS free-agent thinking (though my dream SS is Trea Turner if LA keeps Seager). I don't think we're out-bidding for the top SS anyway, so the Galvis/Iglesias/Simmons combo would pave the way for a mid-season Lewis/Martin promotion (wishful thinking). Celestino is my opening day LF, and an outfield of Celestino, Buxton, Kepler is very strong defensively. Kiriloff/Polanco/Iglesias/Miranda (Arraez/Gordon); Celestino/Buxton/Kepler (Larnach or Rooker); Garver/Jeffers. Sano is DH. All 3 outfielders can play center, as well as Gordon; Polanco is backup at SS, with Gordon in emergencies. Arraez can get ABs as 2b/3b (no more outfield) and some DH, Kiriloff can play LF, Miranda can have a few days at 2b with Arraez or Sano at 3b and Polanco DH or day off. DH is Kiriloff or Sano (whichever isn't playing 1b that day) with Larnach, Arraez, Garver. Gordon is our pinch-runner late in games. $ (no more Donaldson, no 3rd arb year for Berrios, no Colome) is all spent on Buxton and pitching (and I've advocated for Pineda and Rodon, filling every bullpen slot with existing players, extra starters, or low-cost fliers). Plan B is keep JD, and substitute Miranda for Celestino in the above scenarios.

Hard to argue, but this is subjective, right? When I thought of my answer, before reading the article, I said Arraez, Colome and Donaldson. Maybe some recency bias in there with Colome, but Josh has put together a pretty fine season without much recognition and Luis will forever be underrated until he wins that batting crown.....

Someone currently in AA, probably, though if a AA pitcher goes off, he could easily be on the team before the end of 2022 (I'm not trying to get into whether or not someone qualifies for prospect status). My first thought was Woods Richardson, but I'm going with Blayne Enlow. Is it harder to pick a pitcher because if any of them are any good, they'll make the big club? Would I be smarter to pick a position player who is blocked or potentially blocked (Lewis, Martin) by age and our signing of a one-year shortstop?

Already hoping for the best with Maeda but it feels like the whole timeline is shifting. Good-case scenario? Maeda, Big Mike, Carlos Rodon, Ober and Ryan. Another $10M/yr for Pineda and 5/110 for Rodon is well within the budget. Bad is trotting out next year’s version of Bailey, Shoemaker, Sanchez types. Better is running out a lot of rookies for 100 innings each as the result won’t be pretty but it will be fun to watch. Best is Maeda, Rodon, trade for a Sixto Sanchez or Zach Gallen by giving up some serious minor league talent and have Ober, Ryan, Dobnak, Duran, Balazovic, Winder et al rotate 3-5.

These articles are interesting, but incomplete. We could trade 100+ different players, if you include minor leaguers. The more interesting exercise is to assess where players fit in to a global plan for the team, and I'm talking specifically about 2022, since this season should only be used for audition purposes from here on out. My global plan keeps Buxton, for life or something close to it. My global plan says we need starting pitching, relief pitching, a shortstop, and the rest would be hopeful "upgrades" but more likely "bounce-backs." We can run around the diamond, but I like our catching depth and upside; I think Kiriloff is the first baseman of the future, so Sano comes into play (I believe he's our DH next year, since his resurgence is one of those stars you cling to and just dumping him when he's at his lowest value seems shortsighted); 2b is Polanco; 3b is JD, but in my optimistic future, it's Miranda and we use JD's salary for upgrades elsewhere. SS is Martin or Polanco with the other - or Miranda or Arraez - at 2b, but the position most ripe for a FA (Semien, Story, Baez, don't think LA is going to be outbid for Seager, or Correa from Houston) - here we also have to consider that our #1 and 2 prospects still have "SS" after their names, even if that designation has a multiple-position slash as well, Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, 4th OF (Celestino, Refsnyder, Garlick?). Rooker is a backup DH, who we might have to risk losing as there isn't room for him on the active roster. Starting pitching/relief pitching. Maeda, resign Big Mike, Ryan?, Balazovic?, Winder?, Ober? I feel like the rest of them lack the stuff or are too far away yet. The one guy I would like to add on a long-term deal is Rodon - I like guys who have always had the stuff, and are now just figuring it out. Relief corps - I have already gone on too long, so I'll let someone else put that together. I think there's enough in the system, if we keep Rogers and add at least one young controllable power arm from outside the system and fill the rest with the AA/AAA arms that have been oft-mentioned for call-ups this year or starters who don't make the cut. Maybe "what does it look like?" seems just a happier exercise than "who do we dump?"

I would also like to know the future of the "two position players on each side of second base" question. Max's value increases substantially if they cannot shift on him, as he's been unwilling or unable to go to the opposite field. Really hard to assess his value without knowing what the rules are going to be for the next several years.

Perception being more important than reality, I only see deals happening for the expiring contracts - that means Cruz, Pineda and possibly Simmons, possibly Robles. This FO has no desire to retrench, or to admit defeat of their long-term plan by giving up any of Polanco, Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Maeda, Rogers, or Kepler (many of whom would be "selling low" at this point). As much as we (and I say "we" as diehard fans) understand that the JD contract would be beneficial to move to improve payroll flexibility. it is a hard sell to the general public. Strikes me the future scenarios should be focused on minor league promotions, whatever return we can get for expiring contracts, and whatever payroll flexibility arises from those same contracts for 2022 and beyond.

Lots of good points above. Whenever you trade a mlb player at the deadline because the team is out of contention, you "could" get a middling mlb or AAA ballplayer back, or a prospect with upside. It's a gamble, but the upside prospect is probably worth the risk when they pan out, rather than a known quantity with limited ability to help the big league club. Plus, (again as pointed out) it takes some time for these long-shot, low-level, crap-shoot prospects to realize their ultimate value - whether zero or something substantial. And could you please (for those of us who don't know the prospects by face or uniform number), add a parenthetical with the name of the person pictured whenever you use a photo? Thanks.

The article last week indicating we needed to go 13-5, or 12-6, over the stretch through the end of June, was spot on. The hard part is facing the future once we don't do that. If it is clear that Berrios and Buxton are not going to sign extensions (or the team isn't willing to pay what it takes to get them to sign), time is our enemy. Their value drops with each passing week, until the narrative becomes "but they are only signed for (half a season) (one more year)." Much easier to tweak a strong lineup than retool, but it is hopeless to waste your most tradable assets on the tiny possibility that 2021 (or even a bounce-back 2022 that leads to above-average second-tier baseball) is worth clinging to. Stinks thinking about trading Berrios and Buxton (and Cruz and Pineda and Simmons), but if it brings back, I don't know, young controllable pitching, they couldn't be any more unwatchable than they are now.....