South Dakota Tom

Quick answer, though, is yes. Yes, you can watch them practice. Yes, you can wander from field to field. If you come during the first two weeks (before games are played), you can just hang out in the bleachers for nothing - at least last time I was there - and watch Tony O and Rodney Cline and a host of other coaches with the players, hanging on the bullpen rail and listening to the sound of ball hitting mitt. It is delicious. I like spring training games as well, but to me, those first days of practice-only are a baseball purist's dream time.

Ted, a lot of these projections can differ widely depending on whether the author is talking about what "will" happen versus what the author predicts, or would like to see. This is a perfect case in point. I, too, like Thorpe's projectability, and feel he will show himself to be a strong rotation candidate. OTOH, it sure appears that a rotation of Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey, and Maeda is going to be hard to dislodge, barring injury. I would also suggest that, given the roster opening(s), Chacin would be easy for management to slot into the remaining spot. That would leave Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Dobnak (all with options) as 1-3, with Duran and Balazovic in the wings, as well as the return of Pineda and Hill at some point in the season. I know you are putting no timeline on any of this (nor am I); I'm just suggesting that Thorpe's opportunity arises primarily with an injury during spring training to one of the guys above him, occurring before Pineda's return. My fear is that the leash on Chacin (even to exploit him as a showcase candidate for trade value) will be long enough that he alone will bridge the gap until 40 games in. If TSD (Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak) doesn't crack the top 5 in the first month, it is going to be increasingly difficult for them to find a place when Pineda and Hill push them to the 8-10 slots, with Balazovic and Duran behind. Once Balazovic and Duran have half a season more under their respective belts at AA or higher, I would put them on an even playing field with TSD - those 5 will fight for their own pecking order in spots 8-12. For the 2020 season, however, my guess is that Thorpe is #8 on that list based on in-season performance. Just not sure he will be so much better than 5-7, quickly enough, for it to matter.

Like the old Casablanca line: "I am shocked..... shocked that gambling is going on in this establishment." "Your winnings, sir."

I like knowing both the age of the player and the age relative to his competition; knowing one without the other is the opposite of valuable - it's un-valuable.

He is, according to many (our team included) the highest-ranking FA left on the market. I'm sure his agent sees this as a chance to take a minor-league invite deal, or wait for a couple of weeks until a team really needs a starter and get a major league deal. There will be injuries in spring training, and then he goes from a make-good deal for one year, 1-2M plus incentives (if he makes the team), with a potential team-option 2nd year at 4-5M, to a guaranteed 2-3M with a roster spot and FA after. What would you do? Not surprised he's waiting it out.

Hey, that was my 100th post! And I've only been here since, well, the beginning....

I think they'll avoid right-handers in all of the 3-5 slots (though my initial take was close to yours); I also like Josh D in the 3-hole, as a guy who takes a lot of walks and is projected to be our WAR leader. I also like Josh (as an OBP guy) being ahead of Cruz and Sano in the lineup. And separating Kepler and Rosario by at least one slot, so you don't have LH just at 1/2 and 7/8. Obviously, there are changes when Avila (LH bat) or Marwin or Ehire (switch hitters) or Jake Cave (LH) are playing. So maybe: Arraez Polanco J. Donaldson Cruz Kepler Sano Rosario Garver Buxton

Just a question I've been pondering (maybe someone will direct me to more on this): my sense is that any pitcher who routinely faced this obstacle is inherently better than his statistics would show. If this is as widespread as suggested, are we going to see a deflation of offensive statistics this year (beyond the tweaks to the baseball itself) merely because a percentage of ballplayers no longer know what pitch is coming? And won't folks point to any decrease by an individual player (or especially an entire team) to be "evidence" of their participation in this scheme? Not to carry this too far, but won't that increase the pressure on the cheating teams to figure out a way to continue to cheat so as not to be perceived as "cheaters?"

The reason I would advocate for standing pat at this point is two-fold (and largely already addressed): 1. We have a plethora of starters, when you include the additional four of Smeltzer, Dobnak, Graterol and Thorpe. Everyone says on one hand that they want to give the rising players a shot, and this is a locked-in way to do it. Further, leaving room with players who have options in that rotation allows transportation up and down from Rochester. Once Pineda and Hill join the rotation, we have five guaranteed contracts on the books already and a much better idea by mid-summer of who the top five might be and just how good (or bad). 2. The pickings are wickedly slim right now. Not only don't we know for certain that we need someone else, but adding a guaranteed contract right now puts us in a horrible position for flexibility. Sign someone now and then what do you do if Graterol blossoms, Dobnak stands tall, Thorpe keeps missing bats, and Alcala/Balazovic forces our hand? I know, I know, good problem to have, but a problem. No one wants to "waste" the first month of the season or treat it like old September when you could bring up a bunch of minor league guys and test them out. I don't feel like our 4-5 starters fall into that category (and maybe that's where we differ most). Plus, the number of teams designated for tanking in February, and the number of teams out of it in June/July are wildly different and if we are to find a solid trade of a frontline starter for prospects, I just don't see that happening now.

He is first-year arb eligible this year (2020), meaning arb years in '21 and '22. Assuming he is (as you say) $5.4M this year, there seems to me no way he earns $33M in his last two arb years. So a 3/$38M only allows him to know his income with certainty right up until free agency. That being the case (and I am not familiar enough with salaries paid to higher-end arb 2 and 3 pitchers), don't we look at these situations as risk/reward and try to buy out at least one free agent year, rather than solely a gamble on how much he increases his income through arbitration alone? If we assume $10M in 2021, and $15 in 2022, he'd be owed $30M (more or less) from now through the end of the 2022 season. I don't think $25M for his first free-agent season is without any worthy consideration, but doesn't this have to be a 4-year deal at a minimum in order to talk about risk/reward at all, other than minor (and at least somewhat predictable) arbitration awards variations in years 2 and 3?

I do think at least two of Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe or Graterol will be in the early-April five (maybe you were already assuming Brusdar). But I do think there will be one more add in a high-ceiling trade or a couple of fliers - Walker plus one (Wood, Jimmy Nelson?). I also believe they trust Romo and Clippard over May (and equal with Duffey).

My sense last year was that the team's ability to scramble players up and down during the season was as valuable to their overall effectiveness as any individual contribution. It seemed weirdly effective to run 10 pitchers through 4 roster spots. "Solid bullpen" = no ability to remove a player without waivers?

Yet every year, there are a couple that remind us why non-guaranteed contracts with an invite are not bad things. I'm not saying these guys won't get major league deals, but there will come a time of the year in early February when the "fall through the cracks" pitchers can be had. We have both opportunity and some innings to give them in spring...and this is assuming we sign at least one more rotation lock, via trade or free agency. Lots of internal candidates, I know, but we right now have 2 rotation locks for the start of the season, and 3 for the last 3/4 of the season. Hope we don't get to Desperation Point (and don't think we will) but would love to know what Plans C-D-E-F and G are right now.

If it comes down to Ryu on a 3-year AAV near $20M with no compensation attached versus MadBum wanting 5 years at AAV $20M with a lost draft pick, I choose Ryu on the shorter deal. The length of this contract is more important than the dollars for me. Same reason why both Cole and Strasburg are not realistic targets.

I like that plan - thought about Wood at the deadline as he was coming back with Cincinnati (glad that didn't happen in retrospect); I'll endorse the above but put Pineda on a two-year deal or one plus a team option(makes all of them that much more tradeable if it ever came to that and locks up 2-3 years of pitching all in one off-season).

I don't disagree with the Dobnak game 2, Odo game 3 decision. The "decision" was made by the FO in July, when they already knew that Big Mike was going to be suspended (barring a miracle), saw that we were (most likely, and if they didn't foresee it because the Indians were catching up, shame on them) headed for the post-season, and didn't do anything to bolster the starting rotation. I can take some losing. I just implode when they play so poorly. I'm old enough that I was an adult in '87 and '91, so that takes some of the sting out of the post-season losses. But not much. Not much.

Depends on where you start the discussion. If you start with "I want Dobnak, Stashak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer in the lineup" it becomes, I don't know, easier. Add Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, and Littell, you have 9. Add Berrios and Odo, you have 11. Last guy? I say Brusdar. (yes, I know this leaves Gibson and Perez off the roster). 13 position players are pretty set - 2 catchers, the 6 infielders you mention, the 4 outfielders, and Cruz. Either Astudillo is off, or Adrianza, and I choose to leave Astudillo off (that one is toughest - I love the contact play). Going back to the first paragraph, though, I think that combination gives us the best chance at flexibility, lots of guys who can pitch more than one inning, and I agree with a separate poster who suggested starting the bullpen game in game two, using Berrios in 1 and 5 (if necessary, or your game 1 starter in the ALCS), bullpen in 2 and 4, and Odo in game 3. Just weird enough to work.

Noticing a lot of “3 runs (1 earned)” throughout. Nothing harder for a hurler than having to get extra outs. Is this just a Twins MiLB problem, or are field conditions an issue? Typically, guys can either field their position or they can’t - any sense that the same dedication is being made to overall defense as it is to receiving or framing for catchers (I realize that is “defense” as well)?

I'm like a death-row inmate - except I get to go outside and smoke.

Is this like "Sugar Rush" where they have to put down the spatulas (phones) at 3? Who keeps the clock on this?

17 minutes (and like most soccer games, this one goes "extra time" to announce deals) is plenty of time. Plenty. plen.....

You add Thor and Diaz to this team right now, and we are absolutely top-end for at least this year and next. Giving up prospects 1 and 2 is tough, but as an earlier poster noted, this is why we stockpiled position players (or at least took BPA) so that we could deal from positions of strength to fill holes. And then we'd have two years to fill a DH and 1B spot when Cruz and Cron depart (and yes, I trust Larnach, Rooker, Wade, Jaylin Davis, plus every free agent, waiver claim, and available trade to fill those holes). Sign Big Mike to a 2-year deal and hope Graterol is ready sooner rather than later, and we are solid around the diamond - Garver/Astudillo, Cron, Arraez, Polanco, Sano, Rosario/Buxton/Kepler, Cruz - Berrios, Thor, Pineda, Graterol, Perez/someone - maybe Gibson on a QO and then trade him mid-season next year when Graterol is ready. I think one nice thing that we've seen this summer is that we have enough depth to fill a 5th starter role as well as some long relief and maintain flexibility in the pen without inking long-term relief pitchers. Frankly (and I've said this before), I'd rather have 3-4 BP stalwarts and a rotation of 12 others filling the last 4 slots.

This trade is going to hurt, no doubt. I think, however, if you are going to pry Thor from the Mets, you have to make it sweet and there is no low-ball alternative. My sense is that it is going to take Lewis, plus maybe an Alcala or Duran or Enlow as the top two in the return. But I'd do it. Kiriloff is necessary to take over LF if Rosario leaves (which I think he will). With Polanco and Arraez (plus Gordon and Javier) I think middle infield is covered. My second pickup is Alex Wood (FA after the season); don't know what that would take, but wouldn't require anything in our top 10, even if it took a couple of prospects outside the top 10. We would march into the playoffs with Berrios, Thor, Gibson, Odorizzi and Wood; Pineda and Perez to the BP. I would try to resign Pineda, give Gibson a QO, and try very hard for a 3-year deal with Wood. Next year, it is the same lineup on the offensive end (Arraez is already replacing Schoop) and Astudillo takes over for Castro. The BP takes care of itself with the arms we have, as I'm not a fan of trading prospects for relief. Most of our prospect pool remains intact (other than the cherry on top), and the hope is that Graterol can slide into the rotation by mid-season, and we're rolling with Snydergaard, Berrios, Wood, Gibson/Perez, and Graterol next season, while maintaining a fluid bullpen that can continue to rotate 10-12 arms because there are very few long-term commits and options remaining. Then fight like heck to extend Berrios, Sano, Buxton and Wood in the winter and this team could be young, fast, powerful, and across-the-board talented for years.

Scrolling down past the Falvey interview on MLBTradeRumors, and reading between the lines of his stance on the deadline, a name popped up that I think we might see. Alex Wood hasn't pitched all year, but is a week or two away from his rehab being complete. He is a free agent in the off-season and would come pretty cheap from Cincinnati (and I just predicted they would make a second-half charge. Oops.) I can see a move like that to "add depth" coupling it with the potential for Wood to start, long-relieve, and potentially be on the list of those we might try to sign in the off-season. As suggested, a move like that could bolster the bullpen by freeing up one starter to slide over, if it isn't Wood himself.

Just looked at Roster Resource, and counted 38 on the 40-man roster; am I missing someone? Also, much discussion about the glut of players who must be added this fall, but can't put my finger on a list anywhere. Just wanted to go through the annual exercise of seeing who I would keep and let go and expose to the Rule 5, and am lacking (knowledge) (intelligence) (perseverance)(all of the above)? Can someone help? Thanks.