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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    There are too many top FA left to sign to shake out the lower level deals. With Bellenger still out there, no team will trade for Kepler, should that be our rout until he is off board. There is still a lot of FA to shake out before teams really see what they need going forward. Being we are unlikely to go out and sign a top FA, the expected biggest moves will be via trade. Really, you could make this comment about most teams, being most are just talking to players. Yes, some teams made some moves so far, but there are much more pending FA and trades to come than have been done.
  2. Trov
    The first 2 trades would be a big risk. Giving up your young controllable talent for 1 pitcher is always a risk. Even more so because we gave up a lot of our depth the last few years for pitching. We were fine giving up Arraez last year knowing we had Julien and Lee in the wings to fill in sooner or later. We were fine dealing away Steer and CES for similar reason. However, now if we dealt either Lee or Julien our depth really thins out and if either get injured, or just not continue to develop as we hope we have no real back up plan. E-Rod or Wallner are not as much of issue to replace, but we had a ton of depth of 2nd/3rd base guys over last couple years, now we have much less depth. However, he is a good pitcher, but we never know if it is time for an injury for him.
  3. Trov
    The players have agreed to this system. The system has gone through changes over the years, but the players agreed. The big issue with the players in recent years was that teams learned you can win with young cheaper guys more than you generally can with vets making much more. The system shifted and so the players wanted something for the young controlled guys. However, the vets want theirs, just as the vets before them. I am sure if the players wanted to work out a system based on actual output they would, but then many of the high priced vets would lose money.
  4. Trov
    I believe Buchanan has the St. Paul Saints record for RBI's in a game. At least he did at one point. I was at that game. It was after the Padres released him of course.
  5. Trov
    Brian Buchanan was traded to Padres for Jason Bartlett. Who was included in the trade as mentioned.
  6. Trov
    Every season you are rolling the dice with pen guys. Even if you go out and sign a top one, they are so risky. Mainly because their margin for error is so small. If a starter goes out and gives up 3 runs in 6 innings we say that is quality, to have a 4.50 ERA. However, if a relief guy has that much of an ERA we say at best they are a back of pen guy. We expect them to go out and never give up runs. When they do, we hope it is when we can afford to give up 1 or 2. If a pen guy gives up 1 run in a 1 run game we are upset that they blew the lead. However, if they give up 1 run in a 3 run ball game get through their inning we are fine, we say good job you did not blow the lead. The performance may have been the same, or in example 2 maybe even worse than in example 1, but we praise the success based on the situation. We all know when you do not have a good pen how rough it can be. Even worse when the pen guys blow leads in close games over and over. We always want them to be perfect in close games and have their bad games in blow outs either way. That just cannot always be the situation. Take a look at Clase for Cleveland last year. He most likely cost his team a chance at playoffs because he blew 12 saves. He converted 44 saves, but blew 12. He converted about 79%, but 12 times he failed his job. Duran for us, converted 27 saves and blew 5. he converted about 85%. If he blew 1 more he would have been at 81%, 2 more 79%. So not far from Clase, but Clase was asked to be better in more chances. Clase pitched 10 more inning but 16 more games. Coming into the season Clase was considered a top closer, and just about any team would have wanted him, but he did not have a good season. The point is, there is almost no one that is a for sure pen guy and you are always rolling the dice.
  7. Trov
    I would point out that Terry Ryan was not the GM when most of the trades on the Twins side of Young and follow up were made. It was Bill Smith. Then Ryan came back. So I do not blame Ryan for the Young trade but Bill Smith. What is interesting is the Young trade traces back to the Chuck Knoblauch trade tree as well, as Bartlett was obtained as part of that tree. I was most upset by the inclusion of Bartlett in the deal. The Garza for Young, at the time seemed like a decent thought. Young was considered a top hitter up and coming, and Garza, although a good pitcher, was not a fan of the Twins coaching him and we have no clue if he would have been nearly as good with us. Also, no way would we have been as good of trading him and got back as good of a deal like the Rays did.
  8. Trov
    Why would we trade SWR for Grisham? I would not want to do that trade straight up. What about Grisham says he should play every day in a line up? Grisham has been below league average hitter last 2 years. He is not considered a top defender. I see no upside for him. We can find him or someone like him on waivers, heck we put people like him on waivers and they pass through normally.
  9. Trov
    Kepler is not untouchable, and most likely at peak value right now. If a team is willing to part with the right package I see no reason to keep him for one more year. That being said, I doubt the return for him will be that big and I would agree not to just dump him to save money. I do not expect he will repeat what he did second half of last year again,
  10. Trov
    The asking price will be very high for Tampa, and they normally get the better of those types of deals. I am always weary when Tampa starts floating out guys coming off career years for them that still have years of control. It makes me wonder, what do they know that we do not? Maybe it is they have people in wings they can replace or maybe there is a big flaw that will get figured out, or injuries will start to set in.
  11. Trov
    I agree Detroit looks to be on the move, but we thought that last year and they still faltered. If their FO can stop making bad moves, I know it is a new FO so the old track record of bad contracts, and bad trades may be behind them.
  12. Trov
    I see no reason they should be worried he will be taken, and if he is they should not miss him too much. He is too old for a non contending team to want to take him. Unless the team thinks they are like 1 or 2 seasons from competing and an average 4th OF is their missing piece. Position players are rarely taken in rule 5 because they cannot be stashed at end of bench like a pitcher. Also, guys that are hitting their primes are less likely to be taken as well. If he is taken, good for him and hope he plays well, but most teams take pitchers or young lottery tickets in rule 5 not a 4th OF.
  13. Trov
    I am a no on O'neill. He is not good on defense, and not that good of a hitter. Why give up anything for a guy like that? We know St. Louis will most likely DFA him at some point, with his price and output my guess he goes unclaimed. I think we can get a rookie or waiver claim to fill in for cheaper than what O'Neill will do.
  14. Trov
    Santana should be on the list. I do not care that we did not "draft" him but traded for him, he was still under the same rules of the rule 5 draft. The trade was decided before the draft was done, had we not been contacted by Marlins to basically pay for our draft cost so they could get Camp, we most likely would have taken Santana, according to reports on the draft. The story goes we were contacted by Marlins to set the trade up in advance, that we would draft Camp for them, they would draft Santana for us, and they would send us cash as part of a trade. Unlike in NFL you cannot just trade picks like that. I get it, technically we did not draft him, but come we basically did, he was a rule 5 pick that we still had under the same rules and we traded our rule 5 pick for him. So please lets stop hitting the technical rule and just call him our rule 5 pick like he basically was. I would get it if the trade was not set up before hand but it was. I mean in NBA the same thing happens, you cannot trade picks on day of NBA draft, but teams agree in principle, and the team that holds the pick draft the player, and the player wears the hat of the team that drafted him, despite everyone knowing he is getting traded the second the NBA can sign off on the deal.
  15. Trov
    I never say a player is "untouchable" because it is relative to what the return is. Generally, when we say "untouchable" we mean the likely return is not expected to be equal. I think anyone would trade any of the players on this list straight up for Ronald Acuna Jr. I know I sure would. However, it is unlikely that deal would happen. Prospects are even less in the untouchable world. No matter how highly touted the prospect is, they are still just lottery tickets. Many would have said Sano was "untouchable" when he was a prospect but now if we could have traded him for something of value we would have. That being said, I would agree that the return for any of the players mentioned would have to be a very good return and not just a bench player, back of rotation guy, or pen guy. We would need to be true impact player returns.
  16. Trov
    No way should Seattle do Kepler straight up for Gilbert, but mixing Kepler, Polanco, and a prospect may be had for Gilbert. We do not know how bad Seattle may feel those holes need to be filled, and what else they can get for their pitching surplus. I do not expect any move until the pitching market shakes out though. Until the international guy signs, Snell and Montgomery will not sign. Any team with surplus pitching should not make trades, unless they feel too good to turn down until the FA market shakes out.
  17. Trov
    It will sure be interesting to see what Ohtani signs for. Before the second TJ surgery I was estimating close to what rumors have him at. Right now rumors are $550 to $600 mil. I would have found that reasonable based on his two-way play. However, coming off a second TJ he will be 1 year from pitching again, and there is not a good track record of returning on 2 TJ surgeries. If he cannot provide full value as a pitcher then he is a DH, a very good one, but a DH none the less. If he can regain some value will it be as a starter again? I get that you can always fall back on him being a hitter if he cannot pitch, but that is a lot of money for a DH that might pitch again down the road. Looks like the big spenders do not care and willing to take a huge risk.
  18. Trov
    The nature of how the game works is most FA signings are of less value than an arbitration or pre-arbitration player. Most players sign at or after their peak, and teams are hoping that players peak will last into mid to late 30's. However, only a very few players even play above league average late into 30's and they are HOF bound generally. The problem is once you sign one of these guys, even more so for mid-market teams, you are stuck with him for better or worse. Normally paying them for same level of play you could get a rookie to do, but paying them what a superstar output should be. This is why when so many fans call for spending huge on top FA pitchers, generally even higher risk than position players, I always respond with never more than 4 years, and would prefer 3. Fans call the Twins cheap for not going out to try and sign some of these FA pitchers, but it is not being cheap to not want to connect yourself to a terrible starting pitchers for 4 season after good 1 to 3 seasons. The talk of Bucks contract is that one it was cheaper because of his health risk. It is also a risk because one thing that made him amazing is his speed, something that will go away as he ages and continues to have lower body injuries. If he loses his speed he will lose much of his value because his speed put him so over the top. Not saying he is nothing without it, but he much less without it. When signing a player to long term deal into mid to late 30's you need to project how much will they hold up. Is their best skills going to go fade? For pitchers do they rely just on velo, and if so will they adjust when that fades? For hitters is speed their main tool, how will they adjust when that fades?
  19. Trov
    I think people are overhyping Julien as a "stud". I say this because he was unplayable against lefties. He had an OPS of .447 against lefties. Yes, he did very well against righties overall with OPS .898, but right now he looks to be a platoon guy not a everyday stud. Lee has not shown the on base percentage Julien has shown, but the slugging is close to each other. Lee is a better lefty hitter than righty, but he still has been better against lefties than Julien has. I am still high on Julien, but if he cannot get on base against lefties then he is not a stud. Remember everyone thought Miranda was going to be a stud after his rookie year too, now he is outside looking in. I am always willing to move a guy for the right deal. Not sure who would be available though. I would not do it for a 1 or 2 year guy really, unless we know we can resign to a few more years. Also, they would need to be 27 or younger right now to go after in my opinion.
  20. Trov
    I think one they wanted to bring up the TV deal situation, because it affects more than just the Twins, and several teams are in a similar boat. I also think they wanted to come out to fans and let them know not to expect a big splash in FA. We normally never expected it, but over last few years we have made some bigger signings than anyone expected. Some fans still want the Twins to spend like Padres, despite Padres needing to cut even more payroll and take out loans to cover payroll.
  21. Trov
    The first baseman from Miami sounds interesting option. That is the type of position player that normally does get taken. He is of an age that he will either make it and have his best next couple of years, or he will not cut it and you let him go for not that much money spent.
  22. Trov
    I think the agreement was much higher than I would have offered him. I wonder if Reds expect possible 9th inning roll, and he has shown that is not his roll. He reminds me of Hawkins, a guy who was good and at times great set up guy, but once you tried to get him to be the "closer" he would falter.
  23. Trov
    I agree the price is high, and the bat is not been good, but I believe he helped the pitching staff even when he was not behind the plate for the game. I would not sell him for pennies on the dollar, but if we can get a fair value return I would be open to it, but do not just look to dump the dump.
  24. Trov
    I do not see him getting traded mainly because his value is not super high. He carried the team in second half for most part, but he is not a long time elite hitter. His defense is good, but outside of that his type can be found in FA, or in minor leagues.
  25. Trov
    This is where some self scouting needs to be done. Is the team sold that Julien is going to be a leadoff guy for years to come? If so, will Lee be a top hitter for years to come too? Can you play Lewis, Lee, CC, and Julien in same field? Mainly would one move to 1st or OF? Similar will Wallner make the needed adjustments over his career? I never put huge stock on a rookie season, even more so when it was mainly an early hot streak. I remember when Badoo had huge first month and everyone was upset we did not protect him, but since he has been below league average, because league adjusted to him and he did not adjust back. Wallner had some hot streaks, but overall did seem to get better later in year, so there is hope there. However, big issue is that both were unplayable against lefties. It was so bad their numbers against lefties in the season we would pull them every chance we had against a lefty. Their OPS were both below .500 against them. So will either learn to put up a even a passable at bat against lefty? If not, neither have super high value because they are platoon players, not stars. Then other question is what are other teams willing to give up for them? Do they fill a hole without leaving too much of one on our team? Julien is unlikely to leave much of a hole, and this year Wallner would not either, depending on other moves. The Rays have been know to do this, they trade guys at peak value getting good things from other teams and the player regresses. Unless both Julien and Wallner improve against lefties, if they regress at all against righties they are replacement players at best.
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