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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    First, if we are hoping he is as good as Gallo, well lets move on already. Second, from what I have heard Severino is not a good defender at any position, where Gallo was always considered a top defender, even with the weak offense profile. I believe Severino will fall more into the Sano kind of profile, weak defender, has power but will strike out a ton.
  2. Trov
    I fully agree to never go into a season expecting a rookie to take the job out of camp and run with it. Many do have the ups and downs. Just look at some of the top guys last year. De Le Cruz last year, he broke out with one of the hottest months of any rookie ever. Then he played well below replacement level the remaining 3 months. Not saying he is the guy that finished the season, but point is even after super hot starts there may be fall off. We saw that with Wallner and in part Julien. Julio Rodriguez was the opposite, he was a top prosect and he started his first month just terrible but since, other than a bad month in June last year, he has been good to great. Hot starts for prospects mean nothing, and same with cold starts. I have high hopes for Lee, but he has not tore up each level, mainly just been steady. Do not expect he will come in and be an MVP type guy, just a solid piece.
  3. Trov
    It is not a dumb idea, but I would not do it. Does he provide that much defense to 1st base, most likely not. Would this save his knee wear and tear, most likely not due to the diving and stretching. Would it keep him on the field any more, most likely not, being as a DH he still missed a ton of time last year. He gets hurt hitting just as much, if not more, than fielding. The knee issue came up from base running 2 years ago. He has missed time with hip issues running out ground ball. The only way he can stay fully healthy is if he just hits HR and if not walk to dug out, and that may not even keep him healthy.
  4. Trov
    Larnach has little value in trade. He has never taken off as a hitter, plays corner OF, a position that is filled easy, is not elite at any one thing. Most teams know he is 4th OF on our list at best, and we have more depth behind him in coming years. I could see him as part of a package, but if he is traded straight up it will not be for anything of super value.
  5. Trov
    There are 3 on that list I think may get picked. Kersay, Prato and Sabato. Position players are rarely taken in rule 5 because hard to stash them like pitchers. The teams most likely to take a chance on them are teams like KC and Oakland/Vegas. Teams that have no chance next year and can take a year of poor play from a guy if need be in hopes of development. I am not high on any of them and do not feel it would be a huge deal to miss any of them.
  6. Trov
    Now lets hope he can develop even a little bit of a bat. He did grow a little bit of power, and still young. Just turned 21. He still has plenty of time to develop some bat, but if he can play elite defense with even a little bit of offense he should hopefully slot in to SS right around the time we need to move CC off.
  7. Trov
    I agree with not going for Burns. His price will be too high for 1 season. No way will we resign him because he will be looking for a mega deal, and a team will pay it hoping he can be closer to 2021 than the rest of his career.
  8. Trov
    Severino reminds me of Sano in part, not fully, but a sub standard defender that has huge power. Sano did it more as a younger guy, but Severino was injured when he was younger. Both strike out a ton. Severino being a switch hitter could be nice. However, if he does not cut down on strike outs he will be in big trouble at MLB level. Sano only struck out at about 28% in last minor season, and 36% at first season at MLB. Severino struck out at 33% last year in minors. I fully expect that rate to jump a bit as is normal. Do not be surprised if he gets up to 40% or more, unless he makes some changes.
  9. Trov
    Reducing payroll because you have too is never a great thing, but we are not in a position where we need to sell off contracts like Padres may be at. However, if we are forced to play some of the young guys it could pan out, because in general they tend to be as effective as many vet FA end up being. One reason the players started to get annoyed when they were not getting paid because teams saw the production of a 24 year old rookie was about as good as a 33 year old vet in most cases.
  10. Trov
    Both have clear trade value versus who is free agents. Polanco should have much higher trade value. He has been more consistent on offense over his career than Kepler. Also, he has another year on his contract after next. Kepler plays a position that is much easier to be filled. His defense is one thing that does help set him apart though.
  11. Trov
    I know fans feel burned from reaching to those leagues for players. The problem was the fans overhyped them and the FO at the time did as well. I do not expect this FO to just go and sign one giving an MLB spot and forgo other options. Lee sounds like an interesting option. He is young still, and if he can play top notch defense in CF, he could fill that roll and we can deal with a drop off in hitting. I mean would he be that much worse than Taylor?
  12. Trov
    It is easy to point out the players we signed that did not work well, but without showing who we passed on that maybe could have been had it is hard to say we failed. I mean because you signed bad players does not mean there was better options there.
  13. Trov
    FA pitchers rarely do work out. There are the few 1 year deals that work out well for vet pitchers that learn how to pitch at upper age, then they get deals that work out, but no one really expected them to. They are very few and far between. Then the high end names, outside of the few future HOF guys, most pitchers over 30 do not live up to their contracts over the length of it. The Twins are not alone in this, it is just the nature of pitchers. Even when a guy has a good season in the contract it does not mean they lived up to the 4 plus years they normally sign to. Yes, people can point out the few HOF pitchers that worked out, but when you look at the whole, you will find much more bad contracts than good ones.
  14. Trov
    Ryu strikes me a smoke and mirror guy. He will get outs and you always wonder how. One day he will fall of the cliff, but he seems to keep chugging along. I would be willing to take a flier on him for depth to basically replace Madeda, not looking to fill in for Gray.
  15. Trov
    Personally, I would not be willing to sign any one of them to a 5 year deal or more. They are all 30, and many pitchers have a fall off after 30. They start to lose velo and unless they figure out how to pitch with less velo they have great regression. None of them have the track record to think they will be on HOF path, and mainly just those are guys that pitch well into mid to late 30s. They are all buyer beware type guys.
  16. Trov
    I did not hear about the loan the Padres had to take out. Maybe, they really could not afford the payroll they were building like some thought. If Padres have to do fire sale and cut costs it will be interesting to see how bad of trades they have to make. Miami did that with Stanton, turned out well for them as he has been way overpaid in New York. Wacha has shown he can be a reliable starter again, I would be willing to take him on.
  17. Trov
    This division, outside of the Twins, do not look like anyone really trying to win next season. KC barring a huge surprise is still deep in rebuild. They have a superstar at SS, but outside of him they lack much. White Sox appear to be blowing it up with the new FO and go full rebuild. Detroit keeps trying but always seem to be just missing something, mainly pitching. They could come up next year and had some good stretches, doing well against the division, I expect they will be in second place next year. Cleveland is out their HOF manager, and that alone should be huge because I feel he kept that team going like Lou Brown. They cannot find offense outside of really 2 or 3 main guys. They always seem to find pitching, and should have a good rotation again, but they cannot score enough runs, the pen really hurt them last year, with their closer blowing a ton of saves.
  18. Trov
    I do not expect the Twins to put him on 40 man. I also would only expect a few teams willing to bring him in on rule 5. They would have to be a team that his no where close to competing and really needs a DH or first base guy. Position players are less likely to be taken in rule 5, and he really is not that great to make sure you keep him.
  19. Trov
    I see Polanco getting traded, and Kepler staying. Kepler has a long track record of being average, and just had a really good season 2019, and a great second half of last year. He is a good defender and average bat. That has value, but corner outfield guys are all over the place. For us though we do not have a ton of guys ready to go. Larnach, maybe can fill in, or some of our others, but none have shown the same level of defense and offense has been about on par. Wallner can play right, but then we need to fill left. We also still not sure who will fill CF. Polanco when healthy has shown to be a very good bat. He also has a second option on his contract, so if he has a good year the team taking him can bring him back for cheaper contract again. However, for us, we have a ton of depth at infield, unless we non-tender Farmer, we have Lewis at third, CC at short, Julien at 2nd, plenty of options as 1st, with hopefully healthy Mirand backup either 3rd or 1st, Lee ready to come in for any position. That just makes Polanco more expendable for us.
  20. Trov
    I am sure they will look at some of the relief pitchers, but outside of that not too many treasures in non-tender guys. The one name that kind of jumps out as a possible outside relief guys is Austin Meadows. He was highly touted prospect, he was just injured a ton. I would not want Twins to go for him, but he seems like someone that could have a good year or 2 if healthy. I am sure there are a few hoping we try to nab Badoo, so he will no longer be the one we let go. Despite him being below replacement level player.
  21. Trov
    He just had surgery on shoulder and expected to miss most if not all of 2024. Hard to pay a guy in his last year of team control to rehab the whole year. That is why he would be a non-tender. It is possible they sign him to a 2 year deal get him back for next year, or get a very low arb price.
  22. Trov
    The last 2 off-seasons they waited and signed CC both times. They did not go out and overbid for him. There have been reports we had been in the bidding on other FA in past that just went elsewhere, and believe sometimes we were reported to be either top or near top money. After you are making crazy money you can be willing to take a little less for other reasons. Sure, it looks like dumpster diving at times, but going out and snatching up guys quickly does not always work out well either. In terms of the pitchers, I would be all for Rodriquez, but he has risk too, but no way would I want Bauer. He is a headcase in a half. Even without his personal issues that led to Dodgers eating millions to tell him to stay home, the team that drafted him traded him for not much because of his personality. Cleveland traded him when they were in first place and he was doing decent, not cy young level but good. Dodgers signed him to huge deal, 30 mil plus a year and paid him to not pitch. Then no team wanted to sign him last year, so he went to Japan. Maybe he has matured after that, but all reports are he is terrible clubhouse guy and I would not want him around just for that. I believe in baseball having a good clubhouse is important because of how much time you spend together. When you have a guy no teammates want to be around it leads to issues.
  23. Trov
    I do not see them trading him this offseason, unless a great deal for a young controllable starting pitcher comes along. Someone like Pablo Lopez for example. I do not know of any team willing to part with someone like him for a guy that will be 1 or more years from MLB. As pointed out, not many teams willing to part with a top starter in off-season for prospects. It just tells your fan base we are not trying this year. I would say Oakland would have been in that world, but I do not know of any pitchers that would be worth much. There may be a few other teams that clearly are out of it next year, but do they have someone we want? I see the team keeping him, hope he continues to show his bat will play at MLB level to give them options. The hope is Jenkins will be right there with him as well, and then they could play both, look to trade someone to fill other holes. Part will depend on what we do with CF next year. If Buck can ever play it again, that is one thing, or if Martin shows he can man it then that frees up the ability to move E-Rod, but if Martin cannot play there, and Buck is cooked, then we will be looking for a CF and less willing to part with possible prospect that can play there.
  24. Trov
    I would not be surprised if they move him to pen. As a pro he only threw 37 innings any given season, but his 3 years in college he threw over 90 each season and another 24 in a summer league. That may have been why he has been injured so much as a pro. If we are concerned of too many innings moving to pen only makes sense. A lot of starters have done that, The Twins are not alone in this. John Smoltz was known for being starter and damn good one for 12 years, then got injured, pitched out of pen for 4 years getting 154 saves over that time, then went back to starter for 5 years, but really just 3 good ones. They could do pen for next year at MLB level while trying to build him up innings to get back to starter after. We moved Varland to pen, but they said he will have chance to start again, he just gave us best chance to win as a pen guy at end of year.
  25. Trov
    The FO is generally slow to do moves in off-season. So this should be no surprise.
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