IndianaTwin

15 days for position players, 10 days for pitchers. Not sure whether that means 12.5 days for Ohtani, but it does raise an interesting question. I wonder how they handle him.

Buxton has played back-to-back. I could see him getting today off so that he can go three straight with the Team That Shall Not Be Named.

IT's Mom: "We'll cross that bridge when we get to it." Polanco started a rehab assignment yesterday. If nothing changes by the time he's ready to return, the likely move is to option Castro. If someone else is hurt by then, given their positional flexibility, it's an IL swap. AK hasn't started a rehab assignment yet. When that happens, they've got plenty of time to let it sort out.

You're 62. If you have kids (and grandkids), it's your job to be embarrassing.

I don’t know if this fits here, but this is way cool. A couple years ago at a pre-COVID Twins Fest, he was posing for pictures with every kid in sight, including holding babies.

Or maybe even "Fulmer"! 😁

Thanks. I especially liked the first link. And as I said, your comments resonate with the perceptions I've had about how the FO treats people. After Correa signed, lots of people made comments about how the Twins "lucked into" the deal or that it "fell in their lap." I don't think that's the case at all. The sense I have is that the Twins were pretty upfront in saying "This is all we think we can do. We recognize that we may not be able to match all other offers, but we'd still love to have you." And then, as things started to break down elsewhere, they continued to express their interest to him. I'm not sure where that fits into the "leadership" conversation above, since those comments are more about Falvey than they are about Correa, but I think it's an example of leadership within the FO that often doesn't get acknowledged on TD.

Who would win the Utility spots? I dont know the other rosters, but I like Farmer and Gordon for those slots.

Doc, you’ve made some comments here that also fit the perception I have of the organization — that they are straight shooters that treat people with respect and decency. I’m curious if you’re making these based on your own observations or if you’ve read articles/quotes from insiders to back these up.

Earlier this offseason, I did a pretty deep dive into how the Twins used their starters last year. In a nutshell... In April and May, they used their starters pretty "normally," with a decent number of starts going well into the sixth and even some into the seventh (including Bundy, but not Archer). Nearly everyone got hurt and spent at least some time on the IL. A late May to early June stretch gave us Smeltzer-Sands-Ober-Archer-Gonzalez-Bundy-Smeltzer-Sands-Archer-Bundy-Smeltzer-Gonzalez-Sands-Archer. When Ryan and Gray came back from the IL, there seemed to be a noticeable shortening of starts. It worked in the sense of Ryan-Gray-Bundy-Archer making nearly all their starts throughout the summer, with the No. 5 spot rotating through a number of guys (including the couple of starts they got from Mahle). While Archer made nearly all his starts, he never lengthened to the degree they hoped. Some injuries returned, they fell out of the race in September, and gave some starts to young guys. My conclusion was that they didn't plan to have shorter starts, but were forced into it by early season injuries. They pivoted subtly (and successfully) with their use of starters, but didn't have the bullpen horses to make it work. To me, it was the perfect storm of lockout, short spring training and injuries. I think this year's staff is much better structured to avoid a similar situation.

Sorry — I wasn’t clear. I meant start with all of his games (roughly two of three) at DH, transitioning over time toward playing some fraction of the games in CF. I’d agree that in general health deteriorates, but it seems the way they are approaching Buxton is more analogous to a starting pitcher building up to longer outings over the course of spring training.

I think you nailed it. Here's his stats for the last four years: On a per-162 basis, those are great numbers from a full-time DH. We recognize he's not going to play 162, however. But rather than considering that he averaged 70 games per year in this time period, a better average is about 83 games, given that it's only 3.37 seasons because of COVID. After 92 games last season, start the year with a pattern that shoots for 108 games this year (two of every three games). Start with the pattern of a full-time DH, gradually into CF as health allows.

Your second sentence is the best synopsis of how I feel on Ober as well. And yes, ending up with about 22 starts averaging 5.4 innings gets him right in that 120 innings range, which feels good.

On Dobnak, is that based on comments you’ve heard and/or how they’ve used him in ST? Or just a sense on your part? I don’t have reason to dispute, just wondering, given that most of his usage has been as a starter in the past.

1. Bundy and Archer started ONE-third of games last year, not TWO-thirds. It just seemed like two-thirds at times. 2. Randy Dobnak is missing from the Depth line, right? 3. What I’m struck by is that the Depth line looks like what the Opening Day rotation has looked like some years. That excites me. 4. To build on Dennesy’s comment about four (five) Kings is that each of them has the ability to pitch “like an ace” for an extended run. I think at least one will do that this year. I can’t say which one, but that’s the beauty of having five guys* in that category — the likelihood of one or two out of five is so much better than the odds of one or two out of one or two. That excites me as well. *Apologies if I got anyone thinking of a burger in mid-afternoon. That would be a third reason for excitement, except that I’m sitting at Moe’s, face down in a cup of queso.

I’m with the others in the “doubtful” category on Maeda, but I don’t think his expectations would be anywhere close to 2/$50M to think it’s worth the risk on testing the market. If he’s wrestling with whether to take a year at $20M as a guy turning 36 a few days into the 2024 season, it’s hard for him to envision a team offering more than, say, $15 million to a guy turning 37 a few days into 2025. That’s 2/$35M in a best-case scenario for him. In that scenario, he probably only thinks he needs a guaranteed 2/$32M or so to beat the risk of getting $20M in the bag and needing to pitch well enough to get at least $12 in the second year.

Sign Sano? 🤣

Is that you, Dave?* *For those newer to TD, there was a bazillion-comment long thread started by a "Dave" who claimed to have inside knowledge that a Dozier-for-DeLeon trade was imminent.

Salient points in my mind... They signed veterans to be starters and will give them every opportunity. There are only two off days in April, but they can be used judiciously. A 6-man rotation has merit, but whenever there is an off day, it gives a starter six days between starts, meaning two extra days. A 6-man rotation also shortens the bullpen by a body. Ober has only pitched more than 100 innings once, so he will be on some sort of innings limit. So here's what I would do. Start with a 5-man rotation of the veterans. With days off on March 31 and April 7, using a 5-man rotation actually gives every starter an extra day on the first two-plus times through the rotation, with just one exception. The starter on Sat., April 1, would come back on four days rest on Thurs., April 6. After that exception, the next time that a starter would be pitching on four days rest is on April 13, coming off the April 8 start. Thus, I'd option Ober to STP (or keep in extended spring training) and run with an eight-man bullpen, bringing Ober up for the April 13 start. At that point, run with a 6-man rotation. Keeping Ober down until April 13 keeps a couple extra innings off his arm and allows the "normal" eight-man bullpen to that point. The plus for extended spring training over STP is that his "game" days before April 13 can be micromanaged at an appropriate number of pitches/innings. The inability to be able to control/structure his innings and rest is why I wouldn't put him in the MLB bullpen. This assumes no injuries. If (when) one occurs, simply insert Ober into the rotation and roll with him and the remaining four vets. In the unlikely event of no injuries happening, April 18 starts a string of 13 straight games and 30 games in 32 days, when it could actually be a benefit to be using a 6-man rotation. The 30-in-32 days stretch goes through May 17, however, and the likelihood of being injury-free until then is virtually nil. Here's the way the first part of the season works in this scenario:

To clarify, we should ignore the 8 K/ 1 BB ratio because of the small sample size, but we should pay attention to the power in the same small sample size?

I haven’t seen all the box scores, but I’m wondering if Wizard meant they haven’t played their positions yet this spring. Do you know if that’s the case? If so, that does create a bit of unsettledness. It’s early, but still less than four weeks to Opening Day.

Starter. Assume the five veterans and Ober are options 1-6. Beyond that, Winder and Varland enter the preseason as the assumed Nos. 7 and 8, unless you want to consider Dobnak and his guaranteed contract ahead of them. Based on prior history, you WILL use Nos. 7 and 8 reasonably early in the year, very likely by late May/early June. With what he’s shown, give those two the opportunity to be that those options, on the chance that you very well be needing as many as a dozen starts. Otherwise you’re looking at the Cole Sands or the retreads on minor league contract to be that 7 or 8 Similarly, they already have 10+ reliever options to cycle through. Use those up first before going to Winder or Varland in the pen, knowing that you are going to need all those and more as well. The thing is, knowing that any new reliever is going to start at the bottom of the pecking order, it’s much easier to find an 11th bullpen option than it is to find a 7th or 8th starter. In my opinion, there are only two reasons to move him to the pen. One is if he gets a number of MLB starts and demonstrates that he isn’t going to make it as a starter, but he shows enough to think he’s got enough to give the pen a shot. Think Duffey and Jax as the examples. I don’t think Winder has disproven he can be a starter yet. The other is the Liriano approach, which the Cards and Braves have also done and which has been referenced. I don’t remember the specifics on Liriano, but I think the typical Cards/Braves use of this strategy has been in the case of someone knocking down the door in AAA, but is not needed as a starter at the MLB level. So, if the rotation is doing well AND Winder is blowing off people’s drawers in the minors, then sure, go there is a bullpen option is needed, sure. But the thing is, that scenario doesn’t play itself out until July/August, maybe even after the trade deadline. So, starter.

I liked the Farmer trade from the beginning. Whether or not he's better than Urshela, his positional flexibility is definitely a better fit for the roster. I've speculated that one of the reasons people haven't recognized his fit is that so many were in a Correa or Bust mindset.

Just think what kind of grief he'll get if someone speculates on some modest bilateral ankle weakness.

Or at the least, we hope he'll be swinging a big Styx.