IndianaTwin

Yes.

Sunny and 72 here. Well, if by "sunny" you mean the lights are still on in the office. And by 72, it means the air conditioner is working. But when I walk out the office door in a few minutes, it's to drizzle and 53, pretty typical for the next three days' forecast.

This actually doesn't seem that complicated. Our last six games have been started by: Tuesday: Gray Wednesday: Ryan Thursday: Maeda Friday: Mahle Saturday: Lopez Sunday: Ober Our next three starters are listed as: Monday: Gray Tuesday: Ryan Wednesday: Maeda It seems pretty likely that Mahle starts Thursday and Lopez Friday. If they don't send Ober down immediately to bring up another reliever, he's likely to stay around all week and pitch on Saturday. If someone gets shelled and the bullpen is depleted, they could still option him and go with Gray and Ryan on normal rest on Saturday and Sunday. Sure looks like they've switched to a six-man rotation without announcing it that way. They've hinted going the six-man route, and if they're going to do that, now is the time, since they are in a string of 13 straight games. I'm guessing it stays that way for the time being and will be resolved in one of several ways: 1. One of them is forced to the IL at some point, and it seemlessly shifts back to a five-man rotation. 1a. A variation on this is if they decide to skip a start for someone who appears to be tired. And once we hit June, that's easy to do, since there are four off days in the month. 2. One of them stinks on several occasions and gets pulled from the rotation. With each of them having some level of cache, I don't see this one as likely, but Ober is most likely, given his rookie status. 3. All of them stay healthy, pitch spectacularly, and Twins Daily readers break out into spontaneous rejoicing and praising of the front office. That last part seems unlikely, since, well, this is the Internet.

Did you not mention Julien and his OPS+ of 11 because you were already assuming he'd lose out by being optioned when Polanco is activated? He seems like an obvious candidate for losing playing time. It's hard to imagine Larnach also not being affected. And a nitpick is that Kirilloff doesn't have to be rushed, in that he has the ability to be optioned.

Did you tell him that you were as well? Only that it was Miralax. I'd have been headed for the door.

Per the excellent summary from Greggory Masterson (linked below), Kirilloff has an option. Given their orientation to caution and if there's general health at the big league level, I suspect they'll use it to get more 20 days of rehab, unless he's beating down the door and playing pretty much daily. MLB Players with One Option RemainingThese players are currently on the active roster (or injured list) and can still be sent down this year. However, if they are, they will have no options in 2024. The team could be a little more hesitant to use that final year than they would otherwise.Willi Castro, Gilberto Celestino, Jhoan Duran, Kyle Farmer, Kyle Garlick, Alex Kirilloff, Caleb Thielbar

Tell me about it -- glaucoma procedure last Wednesday and colonoscopy scheduled for Thursday. Encouraging Mrs. IT to get her knee checked out. Hoping to avoid an IL stint, with a potential return to Twins Daily in time for the Friday night Game Thread...

Brock, you may be thinking that I think you're nuts, because I've responded to a few of your posts. I don't -- I think we generally agree on a lot here. I'm just offering a slightly different read on some things. The first one isn't really directed at you, but at a general theme I've felt on TD and that maybe comes through a bit in the disappointment in the previous offseason. You didn't mention 2020, but a lot of folks on TD have been unwilling to accept validity on that season because of the shortened season ("Maeda was great, but it was only over 60 games," etc.). I get that, and I can accept that argument. But if that's the case, I don't think it's fair to highlight weaknesses from last offseason without fully acknowledging the effect of the lockout, shortened spring training, etc. I don't remember enough of your posts to make that suggestion of you, but it's felt like a theme on the board. I would say that they have been building a team for a long time, however, They've just done it incrementally, and in ways they haven't always been given credit for. I'd go back to my bulleted list from much earlier in this thread. I don't think any of the things I noted are new things this offseason. And I'd also have a different take on saying that their free agent track record is quite bad. If by that, you mean that they've found needles in the haystack or that they've signed lots of BIG free agents, maybe. But one way their track record has been quite good comes back to that notion of not painting themselves into a corner. I can really only think of the Donaldson signing as one that may have hampered their ability to do other things. Other signings have been to fill specific needs, and a bunch of them have worked quite well. Think Jason Castro, Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda, etc. I'd even argue that the Bundy signing wasn't as bad as it's generally seen. We perceived that it worked out badly because he ended up needing to pitch at the top of the rotation, but he was doing that because nearly every other pitcher spent time on the IL. If they stay healthy and he has the same season while being their No. 4 or 5 starter for the year, it looks different. And what he did do was buy them developmental time for Oder, Winder, etc., while they tried to cobble things together. EDIT TO ADD: I was typing this while you responded with the post that appears just above this one, so it's not responding to what you said there. Gotta Zoom now, so no further comments from me.

I'd have a bit of a different take on your last sentence. Targeting Correa was obviously a major part of their plan, but even if you took out that move and left everything the same, it still would have provided a pretty solid team. The pitching would still be excellent. They would still be pretty deep. The Farmer injury would have a greater impact on their fortunes than it's likely to have now, though having Correa's money available would have still given them time to come up with a different creative solution at shortstop. Said another way, signing or not signing Correa didn't have any real effect on their ability to sign Solano or Gallo or to trade for Lopez, etc. They had already signed Vasquez, for example. Also, I think people are overstating the amount of "luck" involved in the Correa signing. One could actually say that the Twins made Correa the best offer. The Giants offered a bazillion, WITH A CONTINGENCY. The Mets offered a little less than a bazillion, WITH A CONTINGENCY. The Twins offered a little less than a little less a bazillion, but WITH NO CONTINGENCY. Think of the house purchases you've heard of and the number of times they've fallen through because of contingencies. Offering without a contingency ("as is") can be worth a lot. I'd agree that it was the weirdest free agent situation we've seen. It's true that Correa gave an okay to accept the contingency, but really what the Giants were saying was "Bring us a clean bill of health and we'll give you a bazillion bucks," and Correa wasn't able to do that according to the Giants' definition of "clean bill of health." Similarly the Mets. As those were happening, the Twins were indeed showing patience, and I think the patience had much more to do with the outcome than luck did. And certainly not dumb luck. I'd concur with those saying variations of "the harder I work, the luckier I get" or that "luck is the residue of design," etc.

Because they have options left, I see Sands, now Headrick and next Megill rotating through the eighth bullpen spot until each either pitches himself up into the top 7 or down to the “no longer in the mix” category. If one of them pitches themselves up the ladder and someone like Moran struggles, they could swaps roles, etc.

I suspect I'm going to hammered on this, so I'll say it quietly, but I'll add... Not dumping Pagan for nothing. -- so far, looking good.

I clicked "like," though I don't think this is unexpected at all. By that, I mean that this move fits the pattern of this FO: They tend to make moves that fly below the radar in terms of public expectations. If it follows through to fruition, it's a move that comes without a long drawn-out public negotiation. They generally seek to move the needle forward incrementally, rather than going whole-hog with the big splash move. They bide their time and move patiently on free agent/extension offers. They offer contracts that won't substantially back themselves into a corner. They are often sneaking in a little bit more than expected, whether that's getting a couple extra prospects in what's generally been described as an Arraez-for-Lopez trade or tacking on an option year to a free agent contract or extension. They make trades for folks that weren't on the radar (Odorizzi, Maeda, etc.). They hedge their bets, trading for a guy like Farmer who could be their fallback guy, while also serving as an excellent depth piece when Correa goes down for a bit. Perhaps most importantly, they recognize that no transaction/decision is made in a vacuum, so they are always looking at the big picture. That means sometimes they will make a move that seems a little odd on the surface, but ends up making considerable sense when looked at in the big picture. From my perspective, they've been doing a lot right for way more than the past six months. Have they all worked out? Of course not. But I think we're better off with the collection of moves they've made than we would be if they had completed many of the moves that many on TD have clamored for over the years.

Tommy Milone signed a minor league contract with Seattle, got called up for a spot start yesterday and DFAed today.

https://www.firstpizza.com Clam pizza — oh, my.

What I read was that they will get an update on Farmer in about 10 days, so that suggests somewhat more. I haven’t read anything that suggests 60 days — just a sense that it’s the type of injury that doesn’t have much context for comparisons. Certainly hoping for the shorter end.

Kepler for Wallner, so Wallner can play every day. Gallo for Garlick, DFA unless there's a sense that Farmer is out 60 days. Polanco for Castro. Kirilloff uses up to 21 days (that's the max, right) on rehab assignment, activated for whoever is hurt by then. Or, is optioned if he isn't hitting during his rehab. Or, for Larnach if Larnach isn't hitting. Also on the table is optioning Julien to be able to "get reps at 1b," which is also code for "save a few days of service time to get the extra year."

"At this pace" he will play 129.6 games and pinch hit in another 16.2. For context, in his monster year, Nelson Cruz got $14MM to play in 120 games, and we loved it.

Not to be lost is that the crappy lineup (with some help from the Sox defense) chased Cease after five and forced them to use their top three relievers, including their closer for 20 pitches and an up-down for the eighth and ninth. And Maeda, Thielbar and Moran bought Duran, et. al, another day’s rest. Those could be significant come Tuesday and Wednesday. I’ll take Lopez and Gray, with a rested bullpen, over Lynn, Giolito and a tired pen.

When Buxton hit for Wallner, my first assumption was that we might indeed get an inning of Buxton on defense, with Taylor to left and Larnach to right. That they didn’t go that route tells us that they are NOT going to play Buxton on defense for a time, under any circumstance. So then, a straight substation for Taylor would have left them with an outfield defense that’s only about one step above the time they used the Turtle in center. Probably Larnach-Gordon-Wallner around the outfield and with some version of Miranda-Farmer-Castro-Solano around the infield. I wasn’t too worried about losing the DH. Even if you start from the time Buxton hit, that spot was 10th in the order. As it played out, it was sixth in the ninth, which either means bases loaded and two outs or that you’ve scored a run or that you’ve already won (or in this case, lost) it. And I assume they would have pinch hit Jeffers at that spot if it gets there. With the Manfred Man rules, there’s virtually no chance of getting to that spot a second time. I think that what they did and what you are suggesting are both pretty defensible. Bottom line is that they were in a game that they probably shouldn’t have been, given the lineup they had with Cease pitching. At that point, you’re pretty much rolling dice. Without three Sox errors, we’re not even having this discussion.

It surprised me a bit too to see him hit for Wallner, but I have a feeling Wallner would have flailed against Bummer. Lefties have a career .487 OPS against Bummer.

Not to mention his incessant pulling of the starting pitcher. Oh wait, they're leading the league in innings per start right now.

8 of 9 games going into today is a good start on beating 81 games. I hope he gets to CF, but if he doesn't and ends up with 130 games at DH (which is what 8/10 works out to), I'll be pretty happy.

When the whole crew was there, he batted fifth. Who would you suggest hit above him with today's motley crew -- Wallner, Castro, Vazquez or Taylor?

@Shaitan, I had it backwards above. It’s 10 days for position players and 15 for pitchers.

Overall numbers aren't good for DeLeon, but I'm cautiously optimistic. Two of the five runs he's given up came in his fourth inning of work.