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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    We see statements like, "They chose not to sign a single reliever on a major league contract," on TD on a pretty regular basis. There's a couple of problems with that, however. First, just because they didn't sign a reliever doesn't mean they "chose" not to. We've seen that they are pretty willing to sign players (I'm including both pitchers and hitters) at different price points, but it seems clear that they have rarely chosen to go beyond their perceived value on a player. I applaud that. For all we know, they may have made offers to every one of those players. They just didn't value players at a higher price point than at least one other team did. I mean, sure, they could have "chosen" to commit to getting at least one player, at whatever price they needed to pay, but you'd better guess right. So far at least, the Mets did on a couple guys I most liked (Robertson). The Cubs didn't on a guy I also liked (Fulmer). A second problem is that it doesn't take into account what the Twins would have needed to pay to outbid the team that got someone. By definition, they would have needed to pay more than $7.25M (plus a player option) for Ottavino and more than $10M for Robertson, for example, since that's what the Mets offered. And based on the way the Mets spent money this offseason, they may well have been willing to go well beyond that.
  2. IndianaTwin
    You beat me to this. 😃 My point in the offseason, which I will stay with, is that while we may not have a guy that will be an "ace" year in and year out, we have a number of guys who can pitch like an "ace" for an extended period of time. And the great thing about that is that when two go down, there is depth to replace. And if Gray or Ryan's extended period of time dries up, it's not unreasonable to see Lopez go on a run. (I feel the same about the offense, but that's another post. Let the regression to the mean begin/continue.)
  3. IndianaTwin
    You forgot the fourth option, which is "all of the above." None of the three is likely to be sustainable on its own.
  4. IndianaTwin
    A key? Yes. The key? No.
  5. IndianaTwin
    @USAFChief, it’s a receding hare line.
  6. IndianaTwin
    I doubt the Nationals are interested in trading for Alcala. I could see him being in St. Paul, however.
  7. IndianaTwin
    Looking at the bullpen availability, it was going to be tough to win if the offense doesn’t score a bunch, Gray doesn’t goes deep, or both. Stewart and Lopez threw both Wednesday, Pagan threw Tuesday and Thursday and Jax threw Tuesday and Wednesday. Aside from Rodriguez and Moran, Duran was the only one truly fresh. Said another way, Nos 7 and 8 were fully rested, No. 6 was pretty rested, Nos. 4 and 5 threw two of the last three days. Nos. 2 and 3 threw the last two days, and No. 1 was pretty rested. I’m not suggesting Rocco tanked this game, but he was smart enough to know that this was likely going to be the toughest of the three to win. When Gray got to 94 pitches, you roll the dice with Moran to get out of the inning. Then you roll the dice with Jax and Pagan for the 7th and 8th. Then you bring in Duran. Unfortunately, the offense only scored two, Gray only went 5.1. Moran did his job, but Jax rolled snake-eyes, so then it’s time to finish off with Alcala and Rodriguez and rest up for Saturday. Now Duran has had two days off and Lopez, Stewart and Pagan have each had a day off. It would still help if Ryan could go seven tomorrow.
  8. IndianaTwin
    Rocco said last night that Kepler would have most of tonight off against a lefty after having cramped last night.
  9. IndianaTwin
    It seems to me like I read somewhere on TD that we once traded Taylor Rogers.
  10. IndianaTwin
    I haven't (yet) bought the Athletic subscription, but there are a lot of parallels. So I'll take that a step further and say... No need to do anything now. Wait until the offseason to make a tender/non-tender decision, which allows for incorporating prospect progress, midseason trades and Rule 5 considerations in addition to the progress they are seeing in his rehab. If tendered, revisit the extension conversation next spring like they did with Paddack. There's no need to rush into any decisions when they got months to make choices. And as I type that scenario, it adds to my encouragement on how they feel about the progress for Paddack in his rehab. He's apparently checked the box on all three counts, so hopefully that good news continues.
  11. IndianaTwin
    I was on the radio too, but I was struck by how much more comfortable it sounded/felt to have Farmer at 3B instead of Miranda.
  12. IndianaTwin
    Um, I’m going to put on a limb and say that the answer is to option Larnach…. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/twins-select-dereck-rodriguez-recall-alex-kirilloff.html
  13. IndianaTwin
    Agreed throughout, including the comment about perhaps just needing a couple hits. I have to say that it’s great to be in a situation where they could even consider this approach.
  14. IndianaTwin
    I don't think it's so much about being exposed or not in AAA. I think it's more about SaintsDaily being less active than TD. In other words, it just feels like he's pressing, so actually hitting some balls solidly in a more relaxed situation can build him some confidence that he doesn't have to swing at everything.
  15. IndianaTwin
    All in all, I still don't like that rule either. It's so anticlimactic to have a team shut down the opponent, but then win on a single bloop single or bleeder that gets through the infield. At the least, I'd like to see them play some "regular" innings and then start this nonsense in, say, the 12th. That said, last night may have been the first time when I felt engaged with it. It added a wrinkle to the strategy of walking Benintendi to get to Hamilton, for example, knowing that he'll start the next inning on second. And with the way the offenses were going, they could have easily gone on forever. I will say that last night was a great example for me of how the pitch clock and engagement rule changes things. They played 12 innings in 3:37. Can you imagine the amount of stepping out, stepping off and throwing over that would have happened. It would have been exciting at some level, but it would have easily gone 4:37 without those rules.
  16. IndianaTwin
    I can't claim it as original, but it works.
  17. IndianaTwin
    You may not think it’s sustainable, but right now Kepler is nowhere near the weak link. The only guys with a higher OPS are Buxton, Gallo, Polanco and the backup catcher. Personally, I think Kepler’s is very sustainable — it’s exactly at his career average.
  18. IndianaTwin
    The OP suggests that it’s easy enough to find a spot on the 26-man — option Castro. But that’s not going to happen. The Twins like his defensive versatility and AK isn’t a fit there. Besides, barring other injuries, I’d think Castro’s spot is pretty much reserved for Farmer’s activation on Tuesday or soon thereafter. So AK needs someone else’s spot on the roster. Three primary options have been named, either here or in other threads. Option Larnach, DFA Gordon or DFA Solano. (Or yeah, trade Kepler and his 108 OPS+ and great defense, blah, blah, blah.) There’s another option I haven’t seen and that’s to option Miranda and use Farmer/Solano at 3B for a time. Miranda’s OPS+ is currently at 69, and he seems to be flailing at the plate. I don’t see many games, but was able to watch the Sox games, and he had at least a couple defensive plays that didn’t result in errors, but were shaky or poor decisions. He’d likely be back at the next injury, but it sure seems he could use a reset.
  19. IndianaTwin
    In five innings, they gave up two unintentional walks and one hit. The hit happened after they were up five runs. Two of the runners reaching third were Manfred Men. Besides the ground ball single, only two balls left the infield. They limited the Sox to 1 for 13 with RISP. I acknowledge two wild pitches, but what do they need to do to be considered “lights out” in your book? Related, but not necessarily directed at you, I’d also suggest that Rocco’s managing contributed greatly to that success, since he used the intentional walks to put the relievers in the best possible situations to succeed. By contrast, in playing for the win by using Hamilton as a pinch runner in the eighth, the Sox manager took one of his best bats (Vaughn) out of the game in what turned out to be two more times through the lineup. Hamilton struck out twice to end innings in what could have been Vaughn’s spot. Edit to add, since I just caught that you referenced this, I don’t know that you were necessarily arguing against the intentional walks to get to Hamilton, but I do think it was the right strategy, even though that means he’ll be the Manfred Man. I look at it this way. Facing Hamilton increases the chances of getting another inning. If the Twins score even one run in the next inning (against a Sox pen that’s getting weaker and weaker), which they SHOULD have been able to do, Hamilton is only the tying run. If the Twins score even two runs rather than five, then Hamilton is indeed irrelevant. (In fact, if the Twins had scored just two, or even three, I’d have been tempted to just balk Hamilton around to score, so that he isn’t a distraction on the bases — I’d rather face Eloy up just a run than face him up two with a distraction on second. The only advantage to not giving Hamilton the free run is the slim chance that he runs himself into an out. But that’s a discussion for another day.) You note that having Hamilton lead off the next inning is a free out, though the counter to that is to say that the out very likely would have been on an attempted bunt, so while a “free” out to the Twins, it’s not a valueless out for the Sox. And with Hamilton’s speed, a sac bunt attempt might not even lead to an out, leaving them with first and third and no one out. And then Hamilton steals second, so there’s no double play. Or even worse, the fielder could doink the throw off Hamilton’s head, leading to a walkoff. 😀
  20. IndianaTwin
    I think Farmer is actually shooting for next week's home series, though that probably has more of an impact on Castro than Larnach.
  21. IndianaTwin
    About five more games' worth for Castro, assuming Farmer's rehab goes well and no one else gets hurt.
  22. IndianaTwin
    Interesting that folks want to dump an outstanding fielder in Kepler, based on his only having one truly good season, a 123 OPS+ which happened to be in his age 26 season. Beyond that, he's had a 109 OPS+ in the Covid year and five seasons between 93 and 98. Yet there's loyalty to Gordon, who had a 112 OPS+ in his age 26 season and has had another 269 plate appearances that work out to an OPS+ just over 60. He's nowhere as good defensively as Kepler, though he can play multiple positions. I'm just not seeing it.
  23. IndianaTwin
    This actually doesn't seem that complicated. Our last six games have been started by: Tuesday: Gray Wednesday: Ryan Thursday: Maeda Friday: Mahle Saturday: Lopez Sunday: Ober Our next three starters are listed as: Monday: Gray Tuesday: Ryan Wednesday: Maeda It seems pretty likely that Mahle starts Thursday and Lopez Friday. If they don't send Ober down immediately to bring up another reliever, he's likely to stay around all week and pitch on Saturday. If someone gets shelled and the bullpen is depleted, they could still option him and go with Gray and Ryan on normal rest on Saturday and Sunday. Sure looks like they've switched to a six-man rotation without announcing it that way. They've hinted going the six-man route, and if they're going to do that, now is the time, since they are in a string of 13 straight games. I'm guessing it stays that way for the time being and will be resolved in one of several ways: 1. One of them is forced to the IL at some point, and it seemlessly shifts back to a five-man rotation. 1a. A variation on this is if they decide to skip a start for someone who appears to be tired. And once we hit June, that's easy to do, since there are four off days in the month. 2. One of them stinks on several occasions and gets pulled from the rotation. With each of them having some level of cache, I don't see this one as likely, but Ober is most likely, given his rookie status. 3. All of them stay healthy, pitch spectacularly, and Twins Daily readers break out into spontaneous rejoicing and praising of the front office. That last part seems unlikely, since, well, this is the Internet.
  24. IndianaTwin
    Did you not mention Julien and his OPS+ of 11 because you were already assuming he'd lose out by being optioned when Polanco is activated? He seems like an obvious candidate for losing playing time. It's hard to imagine Larnach also not being affected. And a nitpick is that Kirilloff doesn't have to be rushed, in that he has the ability to be optioned.
  25. IndianaTwin
    Did you tell him that you were as well? Only that it was Miralax. I'd have been headed for the door.
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