IndianaTwin

Now up to a five-day All-Star Break.

Make it a priority. And get a seat in the lower bowl behind home. Preferably in the evening. If it’s sunny, the “golden hour” will give you the most beautiful view in Major League Baseball.

To clarify, any of my comments above aren’t to say that I think he’ll retire. I don’t. But heck, Michael Jordan walked away from a bigger paycheck (comparably, don’t know the actual dollars from 19whatever) than Gray would. I’m just saying that these comments don’t really mean a lot in the context. They certainly don’t affect my willingness to trade him.

"I'm content," my mom says, each time I ask how she's doing. She's in a retirement home with early stage Alzheimer's. May I have the grace to say the same when I'm in her position. (And today, for that matter.)

Mrs. IT might suggest I should have added a similar statement about myself in my previous parenthetical comment. 🤣

Sounds like a middle-aged guy (which he is, in baseball terms) who reached a significant goal (10 years service) and is in a reflective mood. I don't read much more into than that. (And I appreciate hearing the musings of middle-aged guys in reflective moods, since I'm one of the former and try to be the latter occasionally.)

"Biggest Disappointment" is way different than "Least Valuable." It's true Correa has underperformed expectations, which has been a disappointment. But even so, I don't think I'd argue for him as the "biggest" disappointment. No way has he been the "Least Valuable."

The thread also popped a new question into my head, namely... I wonder if Tony O ever reads TD and says to himself, "I'm sure glad I didn't have to deal with the Internet in the early 1970s."

And I'll add to this that when they do make statements, folks start to read things into it. But stuff changes and then we get honked off that they seemingly didn't carry through. "They said that Buxton was going to start playing CF every day in May,* but now he isn't. They haven't been honest," etc. I'm with you, 9/12. Disappointed? Sure. But also willing to trust that people a lot smarter than me are doing their best to maximize the team's performance, which includes figuring out to best handle Buxton's health. *They didn't actually say this, but that's how "we're going to start him at DH for a month or so, with the hopes that he's able to play some CF later" gets interpreted.

Do we actually know Keuchel's opt-out date? That's an honest question that I'm curious about. My rhetorical response is that if it's more than a week or so out, it feels like a pretty pointless conversation at this time. These things often resolve themselves and many of our opinions will change by then, whether from his continued or loss of effectiveness, his health, the health of others in the rotation and the results of games between now and then.

It's a pretty small sample size, just 56 plate appearances. I'm assuming that his 14 GIDP in those situations is well above the average, but again, SSS. It's SSS on this too, but the same splits page lists his sOPS+ as 98, which means that his OPS within 2 percent of league average in this situation. For what it's worth, his tOPS+ is 115 in that situation, which means that he's hitting 15 percent better in those situations than he is in his plate appearances as a whole. I agree that Correa is woefully underperforming expectations. I just don't find GIDP a particularly helpful stat.

Then how about saying, "For starters, Correa leads the AL in double plays grounded into, and he's already approaching his career high"? That actually tells me that he's underperforming his expectations. Saying that he's leading the league while batting in the middle of the order doesn't tell me that -- the league leader is almost always in the middle of the order.

From the OP: ...For starters, Correa leads the American League in double plays grounded into. That is a brutal stat for a player to have in the middle of the lineup.... ------------------------------------ Actually, it's not. The league leaders in GIDP almost always match Correa's profile. Guys with a lot of at bats, who aren't particularly fast, who hit the ball hard enough for the infield to turn two, who aren't the biggest strikeout offenders... And the thing is, if you do all those things, a lot of the balls those guys hit go through the infield and over the infielders as line drives. Here's your list of career leaders in GIDP. I'll be glad if Correa ends up on this list:

Betteridge (and thus, probably @ashbury) and I say no.

People have been comparing Arraez to Lopez in arguing that that was a bad trade. As I see it, the trade is really about, "Have the Twins gained more by having 15 starts of Lopez compared to 15 starts of someone else (which would have been someone like three starts of Ober before he was called up, but then 12 starts of Dobnak/Rodriguez/Sanchez, etc.) or would they have gained more by having 300 plate appearances from Arraez at the expense of 300 at bats from others (some combination of Kirilloff, Solano, Gallo, Larnach, Buxton)? With how Arraez has been hitting, it's probably accurate that the offense would have been better with 300 plate appearances of him compared to those guys. But I think the gain from Dobnak, et al., to Lopez is much more significant than the loss from Arraez to others. All of which to say is that it's never as simple as comparing the players who were traded. Every player has a context. I'd love to have Arraez, but in the context of what the Twins also had, I think he was among the most tradeable chips to fill in a need. (And also, of course, that we're talking about a bit less than a half season. I'm not a betting person, but I will bet anyone on TD a buck that Arraez doesn't finish the year with a .400 batting average or a .940 OPS.)

Saints already made their trip to Rochester in April. They’d probably save expenses and do the shuttle from St. Paul… 😃

I don't follow the minors that closely -- just remembered that Salas was somewhere on the TD rankings (12, as it turns out). Byron Chourio is the other. Mainly just noting that it wasn't a one-for-one. (Also, have you been hanging out with my dad? He was often offering to bet a nickel as well. Haven't heard that phrase for a while. Timely, coming two days after Father's Day.)

@Ted Schwerzler, how did you decide which trades to include? What about... Sisk and Cruz for MAT a half-season of Escobar for a package including Duran a half-season of Nelly and a body for six (we hope) seasons of Ryan and a body, etc. Also, Salas as a part of the Lopez/Arraez trade... This seems like a bit of picking and choosing.

Correa has a full no-trade clause.

Ober is at 57.2 innings in the majors, but also has 17.2 in the minors, so his total is already at 75.1. The team has 89 games remaining. If they were to follow a straight five-man rotation, that would set him up for 18 more starts. If he averages the 5.72 innings per start that he's had in the majors, he would have another 103 innings, which tracks to 178 for the year. That would be more than 75 percent more than his highest season and close to 2.5 times what he threw last year. And hopefully a few more in the playoffs. I don't see that happening/being allowed to happen. At the very least, I see them using a sixth man in some variation a few times. Even if they did that three times, they would save 15-18 innings from Ober's arm. We'll get a first glance of their plans in the coming weeks. Assuming Ober-Gray-Ryan through the Boston series, there are 15 games left before the All-Star Game. Rocco said last night that Maeda will pitch "in the majors" this week. Assuming no injuries, they've got three (or four) logical options with those 15 games. Use Maeda from the pen. Yesterday, Rocco didn't say Maeda would get a "start," but that's how they've been using him. I don't see that changing, at least immediately. Go to a six-man rotation for a couple weeks. No matter where Maeda slots in against Detroit, that gives them three starts each for Maeda, Varland and Lopez and two each for Ober, Gray and Ryan in the 15 games from Friday to the break. With a couple of off days, everyone would be making their last two starts on six days rest. Given that Varland has struggled the last several times out, they could have Maeda take his spot, drop him back to St. Paul (or the bullpen) and have three starts each from Maeda, Lopez, Ober, Gray and Ryan. Again, with the off days, most of the remaining starts would come on five days rest. A variation on those would be give Maeda Friday, Varland Saturday and then send him down. With the exception of one game, each starter would be going on five days rest until the break. It would cost Ryan one start before the break. Option 2 saves a start for Ober, but I think it weakens the rotation in that it also trades three starts of Varland for a start each of Ober, Gray and Ryan, who have arguably been their three best starters the last while. For that reason, I would go with Option 3 (or perhaps 4). Though it costs Ober a start now, they will have opportunities to skip a start for him after the break. No matter which option they choose, they will get an extended break for Ober (and everyone) in three weeks, but what they do with Friday and Saturday of this week will give a clue on how they plan to handle Ober.

It feels in the mean spirit of the “Worst Twin of All-Time” series from a few years ago that was thankfully nixed.

You're not suggesting a timing for the extension, but by writing it now, you may be inclined to do it now. In that case, a signficant difference is that Pineda signing didn't come until the offseason, so he was further along in his rehab than Mahle is now.

I don't know that they are purposely stretching him out. Because of how they've played lately, this is only his third game since Memorial Day, and on one of those (Wednesday), he only threw two pitches. He was likely well rested. From the radio, it sounded like if the Twins hadn't scored in the top of the 10th, he was unlikely to pitch the bottom.

Who are they trailing in strikeout percentage? Because if it's Houston, recognize that an advantage they have over the Twins is that they just got to pitch to Twins hitters.