IndianaTwin

The college Mrs. IT went to her frosh year of college now has the Totino Fine Arts Center on campus. If they’d had then, I’d have transferred there, rather than encouraging her to transfer to where I was. Can you imagine how awesome it must be to be able to get a Crisp Crust at intermission?

His Wikipedia page says he was fluent in English, Italian and Portuguese at age 16, when he graduated from high school and was accepted into med school.

But don’t even try to roller skate in a buffalo herd. It can’t be done.

It feels in the mean spirit of the “Worst Twin of All-Time” series from a few years ago that was thankfully nixed.

Seven seasons x 162 games = 1134 scheduled over the course of the contract. They've played 66 of those games, putting us at less than 6 percent. Yeah, seems not particularly helpful.

1. Except that you can’t really discuss just one player, because you have to replace him with someone. I get that some (including you, I’m guessing) would like to take a chance on an unproven minor leaguer. I won’t claim to have a good sense on who that would be, but I’ve not seen any minor leaguers that I’m convinced are better. See point 3. 2. Similarly, if you are going to replace someone, you start with the worst. Previous to the post you quoted, I made the argument that I think right now Lopez deserves to be lower. 3. I think there’s a reasonable chance that neither Lopez nor Pagan lasts the season. The Twins do have examples of relievers they’ve jettisoned — Addison Reed, Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith to name a few. However, their pattern is never to do that until they have known quantities to take their place. They won’t DFA a veteran to create a space for a rookie, particularly in the volatility of the bullpen. Right now, they have Duran at No. 1. Despite having cost a bunch of games earlier, Jax is trending back and may be No. 2. Particularly being a lefty, I think they think Moran is a keeper and may be No. 3. I like how they have brought Stewart and DeLeon along. If they haven’t passed Lopez and Pagan on the team’s pecking order, they are soon to do so and would be Nos. 4 and 5. That makes Lopez and Pagan Nos. 6 and 7 on their confidence level. Based on that the plan yesterday was Pagan in the eighth with the bottom of the order and Lopez in the ninth with the top suggests to me that they are in that order, though I think they are close. My argument above puts Pagan at 6 and Lopez at 7. Right now, Winder is in the No. 8 slot. Over time, he will either pitch himself past either Lopez or Pagan, or they will bring up another guy to give it a try. It won’t be until that person pitches himself past Lopez or Pagan for an extended period of time (and assuming the guys I listed 1-5 stay healthy and effective) that one of them will get the DFA. (The other thing that could create a DFA is Thielbar coming back and staying healthy. Maeda’s impending return also plays into the mix, particularly if they go to a six-man rotation for a couple trips through and end up with a seven-man bullpen, but right now, I think they send Winder back down.) I think they are close to a DFA for Pagan or Lopez, but I don’t think it happens until they have a few more outings from Stewart and DeLeon AND at least one more guy pitches his way past them. It’s just not their approach to let go of a veteran until they feel confident that they have been passed. (As aside, I think that’s the same thing that’s happening on the offensive side with Kepler — they won’t let him go until they are convinced he’s been passed. They are not yet there with Larnach/Wallner, etc.)

My previous post was already long, so I’m separating this out. In terms of the team record, Jax has also had a much bigger effect on the number of losses than Pagan. He’s had three games where he’s entered up one and left down one, another where he’s entered up one and left tied and three were he entered tied and left down one or two. The Twins have lost all seven. I get that Jax is younger and is perceived to have a higher upside, so I’m not (necessarily) saying he be cut loose, but it can’t be denied that he’s played a major role in losing seven games.

Here’s another angle… What is the reason to keep Jorge Lopez over Pagan? So far this season, Pagan has a positive WPA in 17 games and a negative in 7, a “winning percentage” of .708. Lopez has had a positive in 19 and a negative in 9, a “winning percentage” of .679. Advantage Pagan. In Pagan’s negative WPA games, the values were .680, .611, .299, .041, .024, .023 and .002. In Lopez’s, the values were .396, .331, .276, .181, .156, .143, .070, .050, .035. Looking a little deeper, Pagan had two disasters — in LA and yesterday. The .299 was when he came in for an injured Maeda, didn’t pitch well in his first inning and then took one for the team and kept pitching. His other negatives include a game where he came in down two in the seventh and gave up one run; another where he came in in the 8th, down three, and gave up a run while pitching the final 1.1; the game where he came in down two, hit a batter and was pulled because of injury; and a game where he came in on the road, down six with a runner on base, and allowed that runner to score while pitching the final two innings. In those four, he had no real effect on the outcome, but did help the team by covering an inning (or more) that someone else would have needed to cover. Given that he came in already behind, I think you can only say that Pagan played a significant role in cost the team two wins. Perhaps a third (the Maeda game), but the win probability was already down at .35 when he came in, so it was already a long shot. Contrast to Lopez, who has had a greater effect on the number of losses. In three of the negatives, he has a blown save and in another he got the loss. He has eight games where his negative is bigger than Pagan’s fourth-worst. He has six games where he either entered with a lead and left either tied or down or entered tied and left down. That’s somewhere from 4-6 losses at his hand. On the other side, Pagan’s positive games include a .309, .120 and .105. His remaining 14 are between .056 and .001, largely reflective of doing his job, most often in the 7th. The most common scenario is his coming in in the 7th, down one or two, and pitching a scoreless inning. In two of those, he vultured himself a win. The .309 was his scoreless 11th inning in the 12-inning win over Chicago, when he also got the win. Lopez’s positive games include a .138, .135 and .128. None are as high as the Pagan extra inning game, but his remaining 16 are more evenly spread between .093 and .006, largely the result of pitching an inning later than Pagan. I’m not sure how you compare the positive-side games, but I’d suggest that Pagan played a major role in one win, a moderately major role in a couple others, and a positive effect in another 14 games. Lopez hasn’t had the major effect on any games, but has had a modest effect on three or so and and a positive effect in another 16 games. If you look at the two side-by-side, I’d argue that the team is 1-2 in games where Pagan has had a major effect on the outcome, but somewhere from 0-4 to 0-6 in games where Lopez has had a major effect. If the argument that Pagan should be gone is that he’s blown two games, I think you should be saying the same about Lopez. But Lopez has had past success, you might say. Not that much. He’s been truly atrocious for most of his career. Any sense of success is driven by the first part of last season when he was with Baltimore. From 2018 to 2021, his ERAs were 6.35, 6.33, 6.69 and 6.07. During that time, Pagan’s were 4.35, 2.31, 4.50 and 4.83. I know that ERA isn’t a great measurement for relievers, but that’s a stark contrast in Pagan’s favor. During the two months they were teammates last year, they were virtually identical in WPA. Pagan was -.225 in 21 games and Lopez was -.273 in 23.

Is getting caked like getting teepeed? Probably tastes better.

Also a newspaper in Concord, N.H., and numerous other cities. Waiting until the game story is written would also make for boring radio.

Related, why do so few people have a midlevel degree of being whelmed?

If no injuries, I'm predicting a couple trips through a six-man rotation, seeing as that on Tuesday they start a stretch with 16 games and no days off.

Molitor. Mispronunciations aside, I've found him a step better than the one he's replacing. The biggest advantage to his being in the booth is that he doesn't get play-by-play in the middle three innings.

Thanks for the clarification. I should have said that I spent my first 18 years near said town.

You're not suggesting a timing for the extension, but by writing it now, you may be inclined to do it now. In that case, a signficant difference is that Pineda signing didn't come until the offseason, so he was further along in his rehab than Mahle is now.

Not an intentional reference, but I did grow up about seven miles from the town that pronounced itself Kirk's future birthplace.

I don't know that they are purposely stretching him out. Because of how they've played lately, this is only his third game since Memorial Day, and on one of those (Wednesday), he only threw two pitches. He was likely well rested. From the radio, it sounded like if the Twins hadn't scored in the top of the 10th, he was unlikely to pitch the bottom.

Thank goodness he has the reflex.

Don't necessary disagree, but I think it was pretty defensible. It sounded like he was losing some sharpness. EDIT: This was supposed to be in response to question of whether to bring Gray back out for the sixth.

Like Squirrel said. Alas.

I'm only listening, but 31 of his 76 pitches came in the fifth, when he had loaded the bases with one out.

I'm quite confident Caitlin could make shots from beyond both blue lines.

But neither of us are FROM here. Go Hawks (the Caitlin Clark variety).

I'd guess because of the bases being empty. Save Kirilloff for the hope of having runners on when Solano or Castro are up. EDIT: Like Squirrel said.

I live in Indiana. Indy lives in Indy. (I think.)