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TL

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  1. TL
    He could also be a long-term answer in LF as a guy in the mold of Shannon Stewart. If Buxton is healthy that seems like a nice fit with Martin's ability to get on base.
  2. TL
    I really want Duran to do the smart thing (if offered) and take the ~$30MM, with possibility of ~$55M with options, and not question it. Taking a chance that you maybe can get a $100MM contract 4 years from now has way too much injury/performance risk to not bank life changing and perhaps generational money right now. I hope the Twins offer it as part of a strategy to lock up their pre-arb core and trust that in aggregate those deals will pay off even if one or two of them falter.
  3. TL
    The pieces are all there for the lineup to take another step forward. Center Field - Probably can't rely on Buxton out there, but Lewis would look awfully good. Maybe best we can hope is Buxton as a 4th outfielder and DH, but that's fine with me. Third Base - if Lewis moves to CF, does Brooks Lee break spring training with the big club? I say yes. Corner outfield - Is Kepler back? Possibly but could also be a trade candidate again and this time may fetch something worthwhile. That opens up RF for Wallner and LF for Martin. Kiriloff/Julien - Injury history and defensive issues to be overcome but both bats are legit. Need to have contingency plans in place (Solano, Castro). Larnach/Miranda - Wait and see. Don't want to sell low, especially on Miranda who may as well just move to 1st base permanently and put himself in line as a contingency for Kiriloff. Correa - Good odds he is much improved from this year's regular season. All of that may make Polanco expendable but would not mind him back too as a bench bat.
  4. TL
    I could see Maeda end up playing on the QO. He's pitched well and there are "no bad 1 year deals" so the Twins may extend it to him and be happy with that as opposed to risking the open market. For him, one more year sets him up to prove his health and get another 2-3 year deal next year. And $20mm on the QO is not a bad consolation prize.
  5. TL
    I'm ambivalent about the lack of deadline activity as I am gun shy about trading a decent prospect (Schoebel level?) for a rental given what happened last year and what we still have coming back. That said, I wonder if there is still another avenue to add a med/high leverage RP in August. There were too many buyers at the deadline and some of them will fall out of it in August. That could cause them to jettison some more expensive relief pitchers or role players (bat that mashes LH pitching?) on expiring contracts to make way for younger players. The Twins are toward the bottom of the contending teams and so may have first pick at nabbing one or two of them for nothing but cash.
  6. TL
    Brooks/Julien/Lewis could also make Kirilloff expendable
  7. TL
    Kepler has gotten hot and plays a great RF - need to ride that out and see if he can keep it up through year-end (but don't get fooled into thinking he can repeat it in 24). Gallo seems like insurance in case of trades at this point. If we don't trade 1 or even 2 LF bats then he has to be released to make room after the deadline. Maybe even if we do make those trades. The trade I'd like to see them consider is one that will sting but could pay dividends if the price is right- Kirilloff for right-handed bat CFer + RP + top 50 MLB Prospect. Kirilloff should return a big haul and that trade could plug some gaps now and net a top prospect. For '24 it opens a spot for Julien (1B) without requiring Lewis to switch to CF. For '23 Polanco can move to 1B when Lewis returns to give Julien an off-season to prepare. And you'd be betting Wallner can approximately replace Kirilloff's bat and the new CFer being a big upgrade over Taylor + getting a high leverage RP for remainder of this season at least.
  8. TL
    I hope Lewis wants to be that RH CFer. Solves the conundrum of how to fit him, Lee and Julien into two positions.
  9. TL
    You may as well just release him then. Nobody is going to trade for him and then pay him.
  10. TL
    Teel feels like he has potentially both the highest floor (outside of Crews) and highest ceiling given positional value. I would roll the dice on Skenes if he drops to 5 but other than him and Crews I have to say I'd take Teel and not think twice, especially if he comes with a bit of a discount like the first poster said. I have no doubt Langford will hit but drafting a LF just feels wrong given this teams needs the the incredible value a solid hitting C can provide.
  11. TL
    Draft rarely plays out as expected. I fully expect 2 of top 4 teams to take the preps to save $ for a later pick they can entice away from college. That will mean Langford or Skenes is there for the Twins. They both seem like no brainers at #5. Though tbh I also can’t figure out how you pass on Teel given his bat, arm, athleticism and the premium position he plays. If he would take less and we can get another (or two) first round talent later in the draft with excess $ I would not hate it, especially if Skenes is gone.
  12. TL
    I think the strategy is about having him (relatively) healthy and playing CF in the playoffs. We should be able to stay in the division lead and when we get to the last quarter of the season hopefully he is ready to work in there. If he is we make the playoffs and he is in CF game 1 it will all have been worth it.
  13. TL
    Accidents happen during a 162 game schedule. I know this has been re-hashed countless times but going into the season with 8 MLB ready starters is not only prudent but also the smart thing to do. Maeda in bullpen to start the season may have been better in hindsight, and I hope that's what he comes back as, but we should not be anything except thrilled with starting pitching results so far.
  14. TL
    I think you send him down to give him extra time to get comfortable with the wrist and prove health. If he needs another month to ramp up to playing every day, better to do that in the minors than reducing our MLB bench by 1 every other day while he rests. And I could be wrong about this, but he's also accrued a lot of service time on the injured list. I think if he is sent down for > 15 days he won't accrue a year of service time and would push FA back by a year.
  15. TL
    I'd say Ober is looking like he may be more than a #4. He is turning into the prototype of what we have been waiting for from Falvey based on his Cleveland days; take a relatively unheralded pitching prospect and turn him into a top half of the rotation starter. It seems criminal to keep him off the opening day roster.
  16. TL
    Both sides should want to get this deal done. For Duran $20mm guaranteed is life-changing and on balance, taking into account potential for injury, he should probably take it and not worry about what he left on the table. For the Twins $20mm over 5 years is immaterial and gives them a chance to buy-out two option years at below market value. And as a bonus I'll have peace of mind knowing that if he gets injured tomorrow and never throws again he'll be good financially.
  17. TL
    There is a clear path and potential to have a top end rotation with the top 6 guys. You start with the young but established guys who realistically have more upside to what are already solid #3 credentials (Lopez, Ryan). If just one of these guys takes the next step it will be huge for the rotation. Maeda should be fully recovered; it may take a few months but he could eventually resemble something close to what he was in 2021 (which was a #1). It is also a contract year for him and his last chance to get paid and make-up for the years he has been underpaid. Mahle and Gray staying healthy (a wildcard for sure) would each be expected to provide top end #3 type numbers, at least. Ober had better stats than any of them last year (in only 11 starts of course). The good news is his injury was not arm-related and I don't recall him having an injury history in the minors. Injuries will happen at some point, but the good news is we are not depending on just one or two young guys to break out in the minors. Varland and SWR seem most likely but there are plenty behind them who may surprise in 2023.
  18. TL
    I'd try to entice him to opt in by providing an additional player option year for $35MM. Still keeps Twins off the hook for a long-term deal and keeps Correa's options open.
  19. TL
    That no-trade is also a good move on Buxton's part to protect himself against the Twins deciding to trade a very team-friendly contact for a big return a few years in. He could demand a restructuring, which sort of gives him an opt out in the event the Twins aren't competitive (despite his performance) and are considering a rebuild.
  20. TL
    Berrios. They both are capable of being all-stars and top Cy Young/MVP candidates, but two factors stand out in Berrios’s favor. 1. Injury risk - odd as it is to say, I expect in this case the pitcher to be less of an injury risk. 2. Cost to acquire - the Twins are not going to compete for a #1/Ace starter in free agency at $300MM+ price tag so locking up one you (may) have has to be the priority if you want to compete for a WS.
  21. TL
    He should be willing to sign for something reasonable given his injury history, and his advisors should be pushing him to. Risk is too great he never can stay healthy enough and/or injuries sap his abilities. No need to risk *having* to work for the rest of your life when you can guarantee riches for your family (and their families) right now.
  22. TL
    I think the player option that can be voided by the Twins for big money on an extension is the exact right way to go. From his perspective if he falters or gets hurt he can exercise it and get one more year of #3 type money, and at that point for the Twins it’s effectively a 1-year contract, which limits risk. If he performs well he gets money that sets him up for life, but is still well less than market value if he were testing free agency. And then he can do it again at 33.
  23. TL
    Corner OF will be the most interesting position area to watch over the next 2 years, and perhaps as soon as the trade deadline this year. It would be so much easier if Larnach batted righty to keep him and Max as 4th outfielder/platoon. It feels like one of Kepler, Larnach or Kiriloff will end up getting traded. If we are after a big return it may need to be Kiriloff, but Max should also net a good return given his contract and it would help extend the Twins window with younger players controllable for more years. I expect Kepler to bounce back in 2021 in a big way. He didn't even have 50 AB vs Lefties last year and he showed in 2019 that the potential is there.
  24. TL
    He seems like a guy with a “high floor” where he should be able to at least carve out a career at the back end of a rotation or in the bullpen. With a few adjustments and a little luck could go mid-rotation or higher. That’s really all you can reasonably hope for with a guy drafted where he was so it’s looking good.
  25. TL
    Berrios taking the next step to becoming a Cy Young contender.
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