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TL

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Everything posted by TL

  1. TL
    Really looking forward to seeing him unleashed. He almost feels like an afterthought with Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Morris, SWR getting more attention for rotation spots this year. But in terms of “top of the rotation” potential he’s got as much of it as anyone and if he has a strong start he could be an early call-up.
  2. TL
    This team’s fortunes turn so much on Lewis on both sides of the ball. Average defense from him at third, with Lee at second, we should be fine.
  3. TL
    I have to believe that injuries played a big factor last year in his disappointing results. With his background and an offseason to get healthy I’d expect a ~750 OPS with above average defense this year. That’s the “high floor” we all expected out of him and a good outcome. And he still has a chance for more.
  4. TL
    Not giving up on Julien at all, but I think he needs 3 good months in the minors to find his ‘23 form again. Lee at 2nd (assuming Lewis solves his throwing issues at 3rd) with 2 days/week at SS so Correa can rest or DH feels like the way to go. That gives Castro/Martin backup duties at 2nd and Miranda can work in at both 1B and 3B.
  5. TL
    Varland could really put this pen over the top, if he finally accepts his fate. My read is the Twins would have already made the move but he is too resistant to it. I get that the bigger contracts go to starters, but he has to collect the service time to even get to that point and not be buried in AAA, which is where he’ll be as a starter.
  6. TL
    I agree Julien needs a good spring to stick. And a lot also depends on Lewis. Lewis seems to have elite reaction time at 3B and if he addresses his throwing accuracy we can slot Lee easily in at second. But at this point Lee is more of a sure thing defensively at third and, plenty of questions about Lewis at second.
  7. TL
    It would be amazing if Lewis’s throwing problems were an aberration and he could be above average at third, but I don’t see him at second base post-knee issues and future injury risk. Barring improvement in his defense at third I think best case for Twins would be for him to set his mind to becoming an elite first baseman. In 2025 we need to decide what the infield is going to look like and let the guys settle in. This lineup could allow infielders to focus on a primary position and get a day off or DH day with a competent backup. And gives Julien one more chance to prove he’s an a good all-around second baseman - which could be huge whether he’s here long-term or used as a trade chip. Correa - SS Lee - 3B (backup SS, 2B) Lewis - 1B (backup 3B, 2B) Julien* - 2B (backup 1B) Miranda - DH (rotate 1B & 3B) Castro* (Infield/Outfield utility) Keaschall - waiting in the wings to replace Julien or Castro
  8. TL
    Agree. Value is relative. 2 WAR players go for 5+ million in free agency. He is that, plus has upside. And playing for < 1 million for next 2 years before modest arbitration bumps.
  9. TL
    This is the way. Larnach has found something but is already in arbitration and likely getting bypassed by 2026. SWR looks very valuable - and his value will likely never be higher given his low cost for next 2 years. This is the time to cash in on him given the pipeline we (may) have coming.
  10. TL
    Twins are destined to bring in a veteran 5th starter on minimal contract for depth and so that Festa can continue to develop in the minors. And that’s probably exactly the right decision. I’d love to say he’s in the rotation from day 1 but in reality we will need 8-9 starters to get through the year and he could use some time to continue developing (hopefully a 4th pitch). That said, I’d say his ceiling is higher than all but Lopez.
  11. TL
    That lineup still has a ton of potential despite the down year. A year ago we would have looked at that and thought it was one of the best young lineups in baseball. It’s a big year for Julien and Lewis to bounce back, Lee to establish himself and Miranda to prove it and take another step. It can take a while for young players to establish themselves - not time to give up on this core, especially with what is still coming.
  12. TL
    Totally agree, he has not played the position much and has been injured much of the last three years. Pending health, I would expect him to be significantly improved next spring after an off-season where he can turn his full attention to third base defense.
  13. TL
    Agree it’s too early, but for next 12 months they should be evaluating best roles for Lee, Miranda, Lewis. Those three can cover 1st and 3rd long term (with DH, SS, 2B mixed in), but as yet it is unclear who deserves most time at the hot corner. This assumes Julien’s bat comes around and he takes back 2B
  14. TL
    I think they need to lock him up or trade him this offseason. He’s too valuable to let walk for nothing. Will 3 years for $24MM (6, 8, 10) get it done, with perhaps a $12MM option or $2MM buy out? I could see that. And if not then I think he will be quite valuable as a trade piece. And if he does sign it makes it easier to stomach trading a valuable minor leaguer
  15. TL
    Don’t sacrifice the future. Any starter better than Ober, Lopez or Ryan will likely cost a lot (even for a rental). I am not in favor of giving up 6 years of Keaschall or Festa (or both!) for 3 months of a #4 starter or even 1 year and 3 months. This team will get expensive quickly and at some point we may want to restock the farm by trading a player or two getting close to free agency to keep this thing going for a decade.
  16. TL
    Taking everything into account, especially age and the underlying numbers, he may go #2 in a re-draft of 2023. Skenes is as of now the undisputed #1 in that class, but after that a good case can be made for Jenkins (if not Teel).
  17. TL
    Best case scenario is Kirilloff has a hot first half and he can be used as the key piece in a trade to bring in a front line starter for the playoffs, instead of Julien, Lee or E-Rod.
  18. TL
    Threw 134 pitches in a June 1 2012 no-hitter after missing entire prior year with shoulder injury, and was never the same afterward. Wist that decision to leave him in could be reversed. https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/06/01/johan-santana-no-hitter-anniversary-new-york-mets-terry-collins
  19. TL
    Royce is way further away from FA (5 years) than Witt or Riley and has had two ACLs. He should be incentivized to sign, and at right price could be a good risk for the Twins. I'd try to buy out 2 years guaranteed (something like 7 for $80mm) which gets him $40mm through his arbitration years and then $20mm/year for the next two. Then go with 3 team options, Call it 25/25/25. That would max out at $155 for 10.
  20. TL
    I don't see how you trade him at this point. We don't need outfield prospects - have plenty of those. And I don't think a right-handed bat is really needed if we can count on a bounce back from Correa, better health from Buxton, the Sanata signing and the emergence of Lewis and Jeffers. His value on the roster this year (and maybe next) outweighs what we likely get in a trade.
  21. TL
    Best case scenario to me is he is healthy and performing well toward the trade deadline and can be used as part of the package to get that elusive front-line starter! Injuries to him or others have a way of derailing the best-laid plans but that is the way to maximize his value before he gets expensive.
  22. TL
    Another guy that could really move up if he can get and stay healthy is Kirilloff. Personally I’d love to see him have a great first half, and then him be the one traded for pitching help. That way you can move Julien to first and open up second for Lee. Unfortunately that would require holding off until the trade deadline to make a big move for pitching.
  23. TL
    It's a pretty fair trade, maybe even not enough from Twins side. if Burnes had > 1 year of control left the price would be way higher. With Priellipp being from WI maybe they would place a higher value on him as a potential home town hero. I just think it's been 30+ years since the last WS appearance. We need another frontline starter to have a chance, and this doesn't feel like too much.
  24. TL
    He could also be a long-term answer in LF as a guy in the mold of Shannon Stewart. If Buxton is healthy that seems like a nice fit with Martin's ability to get on base.
  25. TL
    I really want Duran to do the smart thing (if offered) and take the ~$30MM, with possibility of ~$55M with options, and not question it. Taking a chance that you maybe can get a $100MM contract 4 years from now has way too much injury/performance risk to not bank life changing and perhaps generational money right now. I hope the Twins offer it as part of a strategy to lock up their pre-arb core and trust that in aggregate those deals will pay off even if one or two of them falter.
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