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TL

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  1. TL
    Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippDasan HillMarek HoustonEmmanuel RodriguezGabriel GonzalezCharlee SotoBrandon WinokurMarco RayaAndrew MorrisAaron SabatoKyle DeBargeRiley QuickCJ CulpepperBilly AmickKhadim DiawPayton EelesQuentin Young E-Rod has to be the most disappointing. He just can’t stay healthy. Combined with questions whether his approach will play the same way in the majors I have to move him down a number of spots. Excited about Culpepper and Preillip and the seasons they are having. And Sabato = Rooker?
  2. TL
    This may be a pipe dream but I really hope the new ownership situation becomes clear in the next two weeks and that group can have informal discussions with Falvey about the future payroll so he has some idea of what flexibility he has. Any new ownership group is going to want to do what it can to win over the fan base in their first year and lord knows this fan base needs that more than any. But I think that also means that new ownership really won’t be invested in the 2025 team (that’s Pohlad’s team) and would want the front office to focus on 2026. To me that means there should be money to keep (and even extend) Joe Ryan and Lopez, but everybody else should be fair game to try and improve next year. That means expiring contracts, all bullpen arms and anyone else for whom we can get excess value should be considered.
  3. TL
    The organization is in such a tough spot figuring out what to do with him. On the one hand: (1) Great guy and tremendous clubhouse presence - face of the franchise potential (2) Huge upside if he can figure it out and get back to 80% of what he was when he first came up (3) 3 years of team control after this one (4) FOMO if you were to trade him now On the other hand: (1) Pitching staff, both starters and bullpen, built to win at least through 2027 (2) Keashall, Culpepper, Lee all appear ready now or by early next year in Culpepper’s case (3) Royce does not seem like a bench bat where you can start him 3 days a week all over the infield. He needs a home. It’s so tough to give up on the upside but it is really putting the team in a bind because they, like all of us, want him to succeed so badly.
  4. TL
    Likely not during the season but in the offseason I think moving Larnach will make sense. He has become a valuable player and will have 2 more years of control at reasonable salaries, albeit at amounts the Twins may not want to pay if they have cheaper in-house options with higher ceilings. But, if Keaschall comes back strong in a few weeks it could make moving Larnach at the deadline more palatable.
  5. TL
    It’s time for the offense to carry the load for a while. It looks like several players are starting to get hot which is a good sign. Getting Keaschall back will be a big boost. On the pitching side it’s hard to DFA Alcala with 2 guys already out, but they likely are going to need some innings eaters until they get healthy so I think you have to look at that. And I’m about ready for Prielipp to get to AAA in preparation for a late July call-up to the bullpen.
  6. TL
    With an avg to below avg payroll the way to compete is making smart trades. That’s not going to include trading your unwanted, overpaid guys for top 30 prospects unfortunately. I don’t like trading Ryan but he’s at top of his value right now with 2.5 years control remaining. pitching pipeline is built for this type of opportunity. I’d explore it.
  7. TL
    Matthews has not pitched more than 105 innings in a season. Probably figure they need him strong for the major league club later this year.
  8. TL
    Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallEmmanuel RodriguezCharlee SotoAndrew MorrisConnor PrielippMarco RayaBrandon WinokurKaelen CulpepperDasan HillCJ CulpepperGabriel GonzalezTanner SchobelKala'i RosarioCory LewisDanny De AndradeYasser MercedesYunior SeverinoJose RodriguezDaShawn Keirsey Jr
  9. TL
    It’s not over. Only 4 back in April with a lot of pitching depth and a weak division. But agree on building for the future and love getting Keaschall a (hopefully) quick taste of the majors before he spends a few months in St Paul and then back for the stretch. Future is still very bright!
  10. TL
    I get the skepticism about the lineup based on the second half last year. But there is also big potential upside that could put us inside the top 5 if a few guys break out and the rest just don’t massively slump. France producing like even 75% of what he’s shown in the spring increases those odds.
  11. TL
    Keaschall is an excellent insurance policy for 2B or 3B, and if all goes well he ends up at 1B and plays excellent defense with good speed and power. Starting in 2026 unless things go off the rails with the current MLB roster.
  12. TL
    Realistically, injuries happen. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and is effective - so Raya (and one of Festa/SWR) don’t have a MLB spot - but I would bet a lot of money they’ll need to dip into their depth before end of April.
  13. TL
    Really looking forward to seeing him unleashed. He almost feels like an afterthought with Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Morris, SWR getting more attention for rotation spots this year. But in terms of “top of the rotation” potential he’s got as much of it as anyone and if he has a strong start he could be an early call-up.
  14. TL
    This team’s fortunes turn so much on Lewis on both sides of the ball. Average defense from him at third, with Lee at second, we should be fine.
  15. TL
    I have to believe that injuries played a big factor last year in his disappointing results. With his background and an offseason to get healthy I’d expect a ~750 OPS with above average defense this year. That’s the “high floor” we all expected out of him and a good outcome. And he still has a chance for more.
  16. TL
    Not giving up on Julien at all, but I think he needs 3 good months in the minors to find his ‘23 form again. Lee at 2nd (assuming Lewis solves his throwing issues at 3rd) with 2 days/week at SS so Correa can rest or DH feels like the way to go. That gives Castro/Martin backup duties at 2nd and Miranda can work in at both 1B and 3B.
  17. TL
    Varland could really put this pen over the top, if he finally accepts his fate. My read is the Twins would have already made the move but he is too resistant to it. I get that the bigger contracts go to starters, but he has to collect the service time to even get to that point and not be buried in AAA, which is where he’ll be as a starter.
  18. TL
    I agree Julien needs a good spring to stick. And a lot also depends on Lewis. Lewis seems to have elite reaction time at 3B and if he addresses his throwing accuracy we can slot Lee easily in at second. But at this point Lee is more of a sure thing defensively at third and, plenty of questions about Lewis at second.
  19. TL
    It would be amazing if Lewis’s throwing problems were an aberration and he could be above average at third, but I don’t see him at second base post-knee issues and future injury risk. Barring improvement in his defense at third I think best case for Twins would be for him to set his mind to becoming an elite first baseman. In 2025 we need to decide what the infield is going to look like and let the guys settle in. This lineup could allow infielders to focus on a primary position and get a day off or DH day with a competent backup. And gives Julien one more chance to prove he’s an a good all-around second baseman - which could be huge whether he’s here long-term or used as a trade chip. Correa - SS Lee - 3B (backup SS, 2B) Lewis - 1B (backup 3B, 2B) Julien* - 2B (backup 1B) Miranda - DH (rotate 1B & 3B) Castro* (Infield/Outfield utility) Keaschall - waiting in the wings to replace Julien or Castro
  20. TL
    Agree. Value is relative. 2 WAR players go for 5+ million in free agency. He is that, plus has upside. And playing for < 1 million for next 2 years before modest arbitration bumps.
  21. TL
    This is the way. Larnach has found something but is already in arbitration and likely getting bypassed by 2026. SWR looks very valuable - and his value will likely never be higher given his low cost for next 2 years. This is the time to cash in on him given the pipeline we (may) have coming.
  22. TL
    Twins are destined to bring in a veteran 5th starter on minimal contract for depth and so that Festa can continue to develop in the minors. And that’s probably exactly the right decision. I’d love to say he’s in the rotation from day 1 but in reality we will need 8-9 starters to get through the year and he could use some time to continue developing (hopefully a 4th pitch). That said, I’d say his ceiling is higher than all but Lopez.
  23. TL
    That lineup still has a ton of potential despite the down year. A year ago we would have looked at that and thought it was one of the best young lineups in baseball. It’s a big year for Julien and Lewis to bounce back, Lee to establish himself and Miranda to prove it and take another step. It can take a while for young players to establish themselves - not time to give up on this core, especially with what is still coming.
  24. TL
    Totally agree, he has not played the position much and has been injured much of the last three years. Pending health, I would expect him to be significantly improved next spring after an off-season where he can turn his full attention to third base defense.
  25. TL
    Agree it’s too early, but for next 12 months they should be evaluating best roles for Lee, Miranda, Lewis. Those three can cover 1st and 3rd long term (with DH, SS, 2B mixed in), but as yet it is unclear who deserves most time at the hot corner. This assumes Julien’s bat comes around and he takes back 2B
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