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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Fans shouldn't be rooting for the Pohlads to exceed their earnings projections. They should be rooting for wins. Nobody wears a Dave St. Peter jersey to a game.
  2. DJL44
    If they actually lose all of their TV revenue someone needs to be fired. That's gross incompetence for a professional sports franchise.
  3. DJL44
    Well, duh. Payroll isn't the only thing that correlates with success. I've said that repeatedly. It is undeniable that payroll is important. I don't think the Diamondbacks are as much of an outlier as you think they are. They only won 84 games in the regular season and they spent $120M.
  4. DJL44
    Ideally they add someone to the top of the rotation that bumps Varland to the #6 spot in AAA and a young pitcher for the minor leagues they can use as the #7/8 option. Worst case they add a veteran lefty who can move to the bullpen if they get beat out of a spot in the rotation.
  5. DJL44
    More strawman
  6. DJL44
    Unfortunately, if true, it also means they're willing to risk a 2024 pennant for a better TV contract.
  7. DJL44
    Another idea - this is the opening of negotiations for the TV contract. If they spend the estimated money in advance then the media company has leverage knowing the Twins need the money to make payroll. This incentivizes the TV company to wait until the day before the first payroll check is due and force the Twins to settle. The Twins are saying "we can play this whole season without a TV contract at all and we aren't going to cave in."
  8. DJL44
    The Twins have to be careful if they want to make sure they're a revenue sharing recipient. Being a recipient means they get extra draft picks and an increased budget for international free agent signings. They don't want to lose that advantage.
  9. DJL44
    Another debate trick - the strawman argument. It's the best way to tell if something directly correlates with something else.
  10. DJL44
    I agree, if that's the strategy you need a big scrap heap. Fortunately there are at least 8 roster spots for relievers in AAA. I would fill AAA with retreads every year and keep my young guys in AA until I sorted through the scrap heap a little.
  11. DJL44
    Well yeah. The Brewers already have an all-star behind the plate. They're not looking for another catcher.
  12. DJL44
    You should read the whole study, and all the other studies. This is a minor point in the Harvard study relating to concentrating all of your payroll in a couple of players (the HHI). I'll agree that putting all your eggs in one basket is a bad idea and a stars and scrubs approach doesn't usually work. The really high payroll teams are going to have a lower HHI because they spread a LOT of money among many players. Here's the important conclusion from the same study: You are using a debate trick by pointing out an exception and using that to try to throw out the overwhelming amount of data that doesn't support your argument. It isn't convincing at all. There clearly is a direct correlation between spending money and team success. It is not the only factor for team success but it is definitely one of them. If the Twins want to compete without spending money they need to be better than everyone else at everything else. I'm not sure the Twins really want to compete. They're fine with winning games as long as it doesn't cost them much but they're much more interested in having the best balance sheet than the best winning percentage.
  13. DJL44
    Jeffers is so awful he rates average or above in basically every defensive measure for catchers. If he's awful then most major league catchers are awful. It's like the reverse Lake Wobegon.
  14. DJL44
    The people who complained about Pagan incessantly even when he was doing well were a constant source of irritation on this site. They'll have to find a new person to complain about now.
  15. DJL44
    Sean Murphy wasn't a rookie and the Brewers won this trade hands down.
  16. DJL44
    That's not what the Harvard study says at all. It says that payroll directly correlates to regular season success but that postseason success is a crapshoot. 6 of the top 10 teams were in and 8 of 10 were in the pennant race until the end. 6 of the next 20 teams also made the playoffs and 8 of them were in the race. Spending money DOUBLES your chances of making the playoffs in 2023. It's better to be smart AND spend money. It's best to be smart and healthy and spend money. If the Twins are not going to spend money then they need to be healthy and smart. In 2022 they weren't healthy and no amount of smart was going to overcome that. I don't think this management group is more than average in smarts so it's good they play in the one division in baseball where nobody else wants to spend money. They can rack up division titles and take their chances in the playoff crapshoot.
  17. DJL44
    I don't think Varland is going to be the CYA runner-up in 2024.
  18. DJL44
    5 was the Dodgers, they were in the playoffs. You do realize that 1, 2, 3 and 6 were competing against 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10, right? There aren't playoff spots for everyone. They don't have 15 playoff berths but 6 of the top 10 spenders got into the playoffs. Teams 2 and 3 had winning records (and team 12) and were in the pennant race until the end. Money couldn't overcome incompetence and injuries for teams 1 and 6.
  19. DJL44
    If a position consistently has high offense then it isn't hard to find a replacement with high offense. Replacement level is all about scarcity. It's harder to find someone who can play SS than it is to find someone who can play 1B defensively. That means there are more options available for teams needing a 1B. Anyone who can play SS can play 1B. The reverse is not true. Anyone can play DH, very few people can play C.
  20. DJL44
    Spending more money does yield more success, if you know how to spend money. Are you saying the Twins are so bad at spending money that their team would be the same if they spend $160M as if they spend $125M? If that's true they need to fire Falvey and find a new POBO.
  21. DJL44
    Anecdotes are not good data, especially when they're cherry picked. The teams with the #4, #7, #8, #9 and #10 payroll were all in the playoffs. #9 won the World Series. The direct correlation between payroll and wins does not explain ALL of the factors that go into creating a winning team (or it would be a 100% correlation) but it is clearly there in study after study after study after study after study.
  22. DJL44
    No, many free agents would fit just fine in the budget for most teams but there's no room on the roster. The Twins will be shopping the after-Christmas clearance hoping to find relievers for 75% off. They bought their CF and SS in the scratch-and-dent aisle.
  23. DJL44
    every free agent in baseball is too rich for the Twins
  24. DJL44
    They can probably get Rortvedt back from the Yankees for almost nothing.
  25. DJL44
    Chapman got one because he's a better player than Max Kepler. Chapman has been a 3.5-4.5 WAR player over the past 3 seasons and Kepler has been a 2-3 WAR player. Chapman is also going to reach free agency a year younger than Max.
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