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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Pretty sure the FTC would never allow that.
  2. DJL44
    Or he got lucky in a small sample size. There is absolutely nothing in his 2023 statistics that suggests he'll be an effective pitcher in 2024. His walk rate is terrible. He gives up too many HR. In August and September his ERA was over 7 pitching out of the bullpen in AAA. I am surprised he still has a roster spot. Many teams have cut players this offseason who pitched better than Balazovic in 2023. It is certain that other teams will cut players this spring who are more likely to pitch well than Balazovic.
  3. DJL44
    There's also some guys cut by bad teams and a pitcher coming off thoracic outlet surgery. It's not a promising list.
  4. DJL44
    At this point teams are going to wait and see what their scouts think of the prospects after an offseason of training.
  5. DJL44
    I think 1 out of 4 is the most they should count on for this year. Relievers are not usually dependable but this group is unlikely to have much success. Duran, Jax, Stewart and Thielbar would be in the "likely to pitch well" category. Funderburk is as likely to pitch well as to not pitch well. The rest of the relief options should not be counted on. Unfortunately, they are currently allocating 3 spots in the opening day bullpen to the group that is unlikely to succeed (these 4 plus Staumont and Jensen). I'd bet on Canterino and Varland contributing instead of this group.
  6. DJL44
    I would put all four pitchers in the "more likely to fail than succeed" category.
  7. DJL44
    This is pretty much my take, except I'd rather have him start in AAA as depth than on the MLB roster. This is a great year for Martin to bounce back and forth as MLB pitchers expose weaknesses with him working to fix those weaknesses in AAA. 80-100 games in the majors would be great for his development. I do like that he has enough power to punish a hanging slider. That will keep pitchers honest.
  8. DJL44
    I think the regional sports network is actually still a good idea. Fans tend to have regional loyalties. People need to be able to easily access the games in their homes. Fragmented streaming would be the worst option - nobody wants to subscribe to every streaming network to piece together their favorite team's games.
  9. DJL44
    Trying to win costs money but it also brings in attendance. When the A's weren't able to receive revenue sharing they had no choice but to try to win to bring in attendance. When MLB gave them revenue sharing money they lost the incentive to win and instead focused on reducing payroll to get a guaranteed profit. When a team receives revenue sharing money any additional revenue through ticket sales and in-person attendance reduces the amount received. This is a financial disincentive to generate revenue locally. It's a direct case study on economic incentives. It proves that MLB's revenue sharing formula needs to change to incentivize teams to increase local attendance. If not, teams like the Pirates and A's will be content to be the Washington Generals of MLB existing so the Dodgers and Yankees have someone to beat.
  10. DJL44
    And they stopped trying to win as soon as MLB took away their restrictions and made them a revenue sharing recipient again. Details On The Athletics' Revenue-Sharing Status - MLB Trade Rumors
  11. DJL44
    MLB as a whole makes over $1B more from broadcasting and advertising revenue than it does from gate receipts and concessions. It's nearly a 60/40 split with 60% of the money coming from broadcasting, licensing, etc and 40% from in-person attendance.
  12. DJL44
    Good example. I think part of the problem is they moved him back to the rotation at age 34. They might have been better off with Aguilera in the rotation in 1990 instead of David West.
  13. DJL44
    More important, the Reds games are on TV in Dayton, Lexington and Columbus. TV money dwarfs ticket revenue.
  14. DJL44
    The A's aren't trying to win. They make more money losing than winning.
  15. DJL44
    Here are the options for DirectTV and the Twins 1) Don't pay Diamond Sports, lose all of your subscribers to streaming 2) Pay Diamond Sports a little less than before because games are available on Amazon Prime. Lose some of your subscribers to streaming. There is no option available where they get exclusive rights and keep all of their current subscribers. That business model is dead. The bundlers are only going to survive if they can bundle everything for less than it costs a la carte. Bundled packages will become a niche market for hotels and people with bad internet connections.
  16. DJL44
    It depends on how bad it is but if I think Varland is a better option in the rotation than Duran I'd move him back to the bullpen by the end of May. He's not pitching for the Pirates where they can afford to give him a whole season to find out.
  17. DJL44
    There is always injury risk. He's essentially trying to get out of it with speed every time he pitches now. Wouldn't it be better for him to dial it back to 97 MPH instead of going max effort every outing? In the end the reason to keep him in the bullpen may be that Duran is more of a thrower than a pitcher. He does not have good control and doesn't hit spots but it doesn't matter because batters have a hard enough time hitting his stuff when he leaves it middle-middle. That works at 101 MPH but won't at 97 MPH. Letting him find that out and fail might actually make him better in the long run.
  18. DJL44
    Ace starters have no problem working out of the bullpen. See John Smoltz, Dennis Eckersley, Derek Lowe, etc, etc, etc. I don't necessarily trust that Bailey Ober will repeat his results in 2024. I would definitely trade Duran for Gilbert or Kirby of Seattle. You should always be willing to trade your closer for a legitimate top of the rotation starter. That's kind of the whole point of this article. If Duran could be a top of the rotation starter instead then they should move him to the rotation. There are questions about whether he can do it but you'll never know if you never try. I don't really care about WPA. It is a totally meaningless garbage statistic.
  19. DJL44
    If he goes bust in a few weeks you move him back to the bullpen where he has been very good. If he doesn't go bust you have a potential CYA candidate. I see very little downside risk.
  20. DJL44
    He'd still give you 2.5 to 3 times the innings in the rotation. Leverage is like a 10-20% multiplier, it doesn't double or triple the value of innings.
  21. DJL44
    By that logic all of the ace starting pitchers in MLB should be converted to relievers so they can improve their WPA.
  22. DJL44
    They weren't all signed in the same year. I was just pointing out that 5 years later expect that only 2 of these signings matter. Player Name / Signing Year Emmanuel Rodriguez 2019 Danny De Andrade 2020 Jose Rodriguez 2022 Ricardo Olivar 2019 Yasser Mercedes 2022 Yunior Severino 2016 (ATL, signed by the Twins in 2017)
  23. DJL44
    I would try Duran in the rotation. A top of the rotation starter is always worth more than a reliever.
  24. DJL44
    DirectTV doesn't have any Twins games at the moment. If the games aren't exclusive, they will pay Diamond Sports less to air them. How much is that exclusivity worth? $10M? The Twins could take the Brewers TV deal, subtract $10M and call it done for this season.
  25. DJL44
    The Red Sox should be looking to trade relievers Martin and Jansen but they might get a better return at the deadline when half the contract is paid down. The Twins won't want to pay the price for either of them. Looking over the Red Sox roster I think Nick Gordon for Rob Refsnyder could work but that's hardly a blockbuster deal. Nick Pivetta is a great fit for the Twins rotation on a 1 year $7.5M deal before he reaches free agency. When he's good, he's very good. If he puts together a consistently good season he could be worth a qualifying offer. That's who I'd ask about.
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