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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    There's also a shortage of nurses, teachers, mental health specialists and bus drivers. Unemployment is really low and wages have increased faster in the private sector than they have in public sector jobs.
  2. DJL44
    Well, you can since the "defund the police" folks didn't get anything they asked for. The budget for police officers in Minneapolis actually increased substantially.
  3. DJL44
    Grisham is a decent 4th outfielder but at his contract cost they shouldn't give up anything to acquire him.
  4. DJL44
    I agree, but the starters are also increasing their effort. They're not pacing themselves for a 9 inning game, they're throwing harder knowing they only need to provide 5 innings. It's the difference between running a 1600m race with one runner versus a relay between someone running the 800 and 4 sprinters running a 200. There is the desire to give starters a "throw" day in between starts to practice their craft. I still think that could be: Game, off, throw, off, Game and fit into a 4 man rotation.
  5. DJL44
    There is crime everywhere. Thinking cities are crime all the time is just as accurate as believing rural areas are nothing but wife-beating rednecks cooking meth while high on Oxycontin. I don't know why San Francisco is singled out as a particularly high crime city. St. Louis has by far the highest crime rate of any major league city and we didn't hear about that when Sonny Gray signed with the Cardinals. Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit aren't particularly attractive when it comes to crime rates either. If free agents were only concerned about crime rates they'd be flocking to Tampa, FL. List of United States cities by crime rate - Wikipedia The reality is rich people can buy themselves out of problems with street crime. Every major city has high priced neighborhoods catering to rich folks so they don't have to interact with the rest of us.
  6. DJL44
    I've been thinking more about the qualifying offer and the Ohtani contract. The QO is calculated as the average of the top 125 paid people in MLB. For Ohtani do they use the $70M number or the $46M for this calculation? That is a difference of $200,000 increase in the value of the QO. In 2023 the 125th highest paid player was Joey Gallo at $11M. MLB Salary Rankings | Spotrac Replacing him with Ohtani's $70M will move the value of the QO up by $470k. Every player who signs for more than $11M (including arbitration eligible like Soto) will bump out someone in the 2024 list of the top 125 highest paid players. MLB trade rumors is predicting 8 arbitration awards above $11M and we are likely to see 20 more free agents get $11M or higher. The 125th highest paid player will probably earn $12.5M in 2024. With the number of $20M+ contracts handed out this offseason I would not be surprised to see the QO top $22M next winter.
  7. DJL44
    Kershaw is going year to year. It's common knowledge that he prefers to pitch for the Dodgers or for Texas (he's from Dallas and has a home there). I guess if both the Dodgers and Rangers pass on him then maybe the Twins could get involved.
  8. DJL44
    The escalating relief arms race has made a big difference. 30 years ago a team wouldn't have multiple relievers throwing 95-100 MPH fastballs and wipeout sliders. Now that's the expectation. If you have 6 relievers who can do that you're going to use them. That means fewer innings for the starting pitchers.
  9. DJL44
    Royce Lewis was a clear upgrade to the defense at 3B over Jose Miranda.
  10. DJL44
    Players don't usually get healthier in their 30s.
  11. DJL44
    I doubt any team wants to pay Max Kepler $21M for 2025. The Twins certainly don't and won't offer him a QO. If there is another team who believes Max Kepler is worth a QO the Twins should find that team and trade him now. A team valuing Max that highly is sure to give something good in return - first round pick level talent. I don't believe that team exists.
  12. DJL44
    You're wrong. 10.5 B divided 30 ways is $350M per team. The $10.5B includes all the revenue MLB is generating so it is inclusive of local revenue. The way it's divided now each team gets at least $210M from the central pool plus 50% of their local revenue. Instead of the $350M each they would get if things were divided evenly they get $250-$550M in revenue per team divided unevenly. I don't think dividing things evenly would be helpful. Teams need an incentive to try to win to appeal to fans.
  13. DJL44
    Their biggest need is a pitcher better than Lugo.
  14. DJL44
    I think Kepler's value will be nearly as high at the trade deadline as it is now in the offseason. If the team falls apart or if the young outfielders take a step forward they can deal Max at the deadline. There is no urgency to trade him this offseason.
  15. DJL44
    Athletes (and entertainers) have to pay taxes where the games are played each season. It's not where you live or even where you play your home games. Here's How Professional Athletes Pay Taxes (fool.com) If the deferrals mean he doesn't have to pay taxes until later and only where he lives then he's really dodging Minnesota (and other state) taxes by deferring the money.
  16. DJL44
    Both MLB and the union want the established star players in the largest markets. It's good for everyone, including the revenue sharing recipients, because it maximizes overall revenue. Everyone wants the Yankees and Dodgers in the playoffs as much as possible. Fortunately, the randomness in baseball makes their playoffs much more like the NCAA basketball tournament than the NBA postseason. Any team that makes the playoffs has a chance to win the World Series.
  17. DJL44
    The Dodgers also have to compete against the Giants, Diamondbacks and Padres who are trying to win. The Twins get the gift (curse?) of being placed in the "nobody's trying to win" AL Central division.
  18. DJL44
    Envy
  19. DJL44
    Ohtani's probably worth more than that. There was an article that the Angels are losing $25M in yearly advertising money from Japanese companies because Ohtani is gone now. He's clearly worth $40M in on-field performance. The Dodgers are getting a bargain.
  20. DJL44
    It shouldn't be either/or. Twins games should be available through cable AND streaming.
  21. DJL44
    Ohtani becomes the highest paid player but it's more like $46M a season than $70M. Big market teams like the Royals and the Reds scooping up all the relievers. The Twins will just have to wait until the rich teams have their fill.
  22. DJL44
    You have your economics backwards.
  23. DJL44
    A good option if you live south of Target Field but I live north and I'm not driving all the way through metro traffic to get to MoA and then all the way back through town when the game's over. Paying $5 extra saves me an hour of driving which is well worth it.
  24. DJL44
    Except the net present $ value is the same as if they had paid Ohtani just 46 M now. It's really a 10 year $460M deal. It is structured in a way to benefit Ohtani later by moving some dollars to after his retirement from baseball (when his endorsements will be less lucrative). The Dodgers will have to pay luxury taxes on the present value of the contract. The whole $700M contract value is basically a lie.
  25. DJL44
    Unless he wants to give a team friendly discount I'd focus on cost certainty through arbitration. I think I'd rather get a 1st round pick with a qualifying offer than pay any reliever market rate in his 30s.
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