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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    We can't say with any confidence that Mauer will finish ahead of Helton in the voting but the odds are favorable that he will finish above 75%. It's now more likely than not that Mauer gets elected this year. If we assumed voting was random the 95% confidence interval is +/- 7% (expect his final total to be between 76% and 90%). There is evidence that people who publicly announce vote for more candidates than those who don't so there is still a chance he falls just short. Someone with more stats background than me could tell you the exact chances. He's a lock to get elected to the Hall of Fame in one of the next 3 years even if he falls short in 2024.
  2. DJL44
    Where did I say they should play rookies who aren't ready yet? Julien, Wallner and even Royce Lewis are still developing but they're also the best options available. I think it's a bad idea to use rookies for a bench role when they might only play once a week. That doesn't help the player or the team.
  3. DJL44
    I'm fine with them developing in the majors as well, but they should play every day. If Buxton gets hurt then they can bring up Austin Martin to play every day in the majors. I just don't want to waste his service time in a bench role.
  4. DJL44
    Huascar Ynoa is now the 6th starter in Atlanta. They're going to be a very good team.
  5. DJL44
    I would much rather use veterans for bench players and let the younger players develop by playing every day somewhere.
  6. DJL44
    Sonny Gray signing by St. Louis could be the best one of the entire offseason.
  7. DJL44
    It shows how scarce starting pitchers are when a pitcher who was objectively bad in 2023 gets a free agent contract for $20M a season.
  8. DJL44
    The young guys (Wallner, Kirilloff, Larnach, Julien) were each terrible against LHP. A few of them might improve from terrible to merely bad but I wouldn't bet my season that they all turn into productive hitters vs LHP.
  9. DJL44
    Difficult to win against LHP with only 3 batters in the lineup who can hit. Kirilloff, Castro, Kepler, Julien, Wallner, Larnach and Gordon are all mostly useless against LHP. Farmer can only replace one of them. Buxton is always hurt. Polanco is likely to be traded. A RH bench bat was a need last offseason and at the trade deadline. It's still a good idea.
  10. DJL44
    Do you have a better idea for a RH bench bat who can play OF? They really need one, an OPS in the 400s against LHP is atrocious. Lefthanded pitchers turn half the lineup into an automatic out. Tommy Pham and Teoscar Hernandez are out there but they're going to get paid. Aaron Hicks costs absolutely nothing. I would rather see Austin Martin play every day in AAA instead of sitting on the Twins bench.
  11. DJL44
    I'd rather see a dead period between the end of the winter meetings and January. Take 3 weeks off and start again in the new year. No matter what MLB does they aren't going to get more attention than Christmas (it's kind of a big deal).
  12. DJL44
    I agree. I don't see a reason to make the MLB draft more risky to fill a perceived need for news in the offseason.
  13. DJL44
    Why would the MLB teams want to give up a summer of development time? Where would the potential draft picks (some who have graduated) play from July to October? Forget ever having a high school player drafted again, they would have already played fall ball in the NCAA. Same for JUCO players. That idea is lose-lose. I am in favor of a forced dead period for transactions between the end of the winter meetings in mid-December and New Year's Day. Let everyone take 2 weeks off and start again in the new year.
  14. DJL44
    Wallner (970 OPS vs RHP, .480 vs LHP), Kepler (832 vs 750), Larnach (766 vs 412) and Kirilloff (858 v 452) are also worse against LHP than RHP. Castro outhit all but Kepler. Buxton is really the only OF you would expect to hit lefties well. That could give Austin Martin a niche to fill. A reunion with Aaron Hicks makes a lot of sense. He had a .970 OPS vs LHP and will cost the MLB minimum for the next two seasons. He's below average in the field at age 34 but can cover all three outfield positions without embarassing himself. A Wallner/Hicks platoon could be All-Star level production for less than $2M.
  15. DJL44
    Brooks Lee is not known for his sprint speed. Willi Castro IS known for his sprint speed and was pretty good defensively in the outfield, probably better than I would expect from Kepler. Putting Kepler in CF would only make sense to get an extra bat into the lineup and unless you move Kirilloff back to LF and play someone else at 1B there isn't a configuration where Kepler in CF makes sense.
  16. DJL44
    They signed him to a major league contract and gave him roster spot. They only get 40 of them in the offseason. 3 spots left before they need to put players on waivers. 3 spots left that they can use for players received in trades.
  17. DJL44
    Pete Rose signed a lifetime ban from baseball. He's no longer eligible.
  18. DJL44
    Is Terry Ryan consulting for the front office? This is exactly the kind of low-risk, low-reward move he loved to make. At best they get a back end reliever for $1M. At worst they spent a roster spot on someone who can't even contribute. The opportunity cost may be higher than the salary cost.
  19. DJL44
    Bally's sucks for fans and for the team. They can't even get the games into people's homes. Their app crashes all the time. Bally's has already announced that they are ending MLB broadcasting for the rest of the teams at the end of 2024. Going back to Bally's when they've already had several years to prepare for the transition is a management failure. The Twins had an opportunity to lead the pack and they're opting back into a broken distribution model. The only thing I can figure is MLB said "we have a plan for 2025 on, don't make any long-term contracts".
  20. DJL44
    That is nonsensical. Are you going to go back to those games, turn the hits into outs and re-score the game? Pete Rose at the top of the all-time hits list is just a record of what happened during baseball games. Any honors you ascribe to it is entirely your own.
  21. DJL44
    Small chance. Most players have their peak season at about his age. The good news is he doesn't have to improve that much to be effective.
  22. DJL44
    Kansas City and Cincinnati are spending money this offseason.
  23. DJL44
    But somehow only for the Twins with all 29 of the other MLB teams unaffected.
  24. DJL44
    Everyone should be thrilled with Joe's vote totals so far. He's basically guaranteed to get elected by ranking this high immediately. If it doesn't happen this year it will happen by 2026 at the latest. Next year (2025) adds Ichiro and CC Sabathia and it is Wagner's final time on the ballot. In 2026 there is nobody special added (Cole Hamels tops the list) and if he isn't already elected Joe would be the top returning player.
  25. DJL44
    The news about a 1 season negotiation with Bally's is so frustrating. Kick the can down the road one year and try it all over again. The Twins will wait for MLB to figure out the future of television distribution for them. No innovation from this management team.
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