Beast

I’m a CPA. I fully understand what you’re saying. But, there are limitations on the benefits of present value. There’s a point at which it doesn’t compute. There are risks in any type of investment. But, people (particularly successful, rich people) still invest their money in long-term assets (Petty) vs. having the short term liquidity (Gray). If Petty turns into an ace caliber pitcher for a number of years - it vastly outweighs a couple years of a decent starting pitcher on a team that didn’t win squat. It’s not even close. If Petty reaches those heights, the only thing that would’ve made it worth it was if we had won something. We didn’t. We blew our short term liquidity on a bunch of value meals from McDonalds. Now we just sit back and hope Petty flames out, or it was a bad trade.

Not an awful track record, not great either. As mentioned above, Id also flip Lewis and Lee. Not even a question at this point in my mind. Lewis is looking like a decade long quality major leaguer. We don’t really know if Lee can even play in the MLB at this point. I’m just not a fan of taking guys like Sabato, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner with high draft picks. Those were thrown away picks, IMO. Their upside is very limited, they can’t play defense well, and you can find that type of guy for relatively cheap at the MLB level every year. Maybe take one of these guys every once in a while….but half the list is this type of player. I’d prefer guys like Miller. I think I even like the thought process of the Cavaco pick better than the Sabato pick. It’s like buying a lottery ticket vs. a $1 pull tab. Hit on the former and you’re right. Hit on the latter and you’ll be lucky if you can even cover your bar tab. Even if you hit on 100 of pull tabs, it’s not making a huge difference. I loved the Petty pick. I don’t see it as a success for getting two decent years of Sonny Gray on bad team. People point to it as a positive now, but that could look real bad in a few years. But, still a good pick. #3 on the list, IMO. Maybe even #2 behind Lewis considering the draft spot.

I mean, do we have to take a “high floor” college outfielder with “(insert adjective) power” and no defense with a first round pick (including comp picks) of every draft? Doesn’t seem to work out that well (referring to the comp pick, I like Clark at 5).

That’s one of the most therapeutic games that possible. Fantastic pitching performance. Correa and Buxton both going yard. That’s how you halt the free fall and energize an apathetic fanbase. Hopefully they can use this as a springboard and it’s a not a blip on the radar.

I’d advocate for a 6 man rotation if we had the pitchers to do so. I was a vocal supporter of it when I thought Mahle and Maeda were going to be healthy. I don’t see a downside. Especially with all of these guys that are prone to injury. Alas, Mahle is out. Varland isn’t good. Meada can’t stay healthy and has looked awful in the MLB. Who knows what the heck Keuchel is going to do. There is no reason to run out a 6 man rotation if the 5th and 6th guy aren’t any good.

I like it. Unfortunately for him, SP the only position on the team where we don’t absolutely stink. Maybe he’d be willing to throw some innings in relief. With guys like Gray, Lopez, and Ober not going deep into games, a guy to come in and give 2-3 quality innings and bridge to our only 2 good relievers would be very valuable. That’s assuming he gets back to a place where he can pitch quality innings.

No. The contract is peanuts. Despite his struggles and injuries, laying the FO’s and management’s incompetence even partially at feet of Buxton is asinine. He’s been a well above average player in terms of WAR. Undo even a small fraction of the awful trades, draft picks, signings, support staff blunders, etc. this FO has made and things look different….with or without Buxton’s contract. The FO’s only job is to evaluate and assemble a collection of players that can win baseball games. They are routinely crapping the bed on that regard, and that’s a kind way of putting it. The mistake is hiring the current regime based on their coattail riding (in Falvey’s case - Levine hasnt been a part of a damn thing), and continuing the let them flounder despite what’s now approaching a decade of failures. Everyone points to 2019 as a redeeming quality of these guys and reason to stick with them indefinitely going forward. They inherited 99% of that roster, won the lottery by having a juiced ball fall onto their face, and haven’t done a GD thing since. I’m tired of the sugar coating and propaganda. They flat out suck…..and there’s two of them doing one person’s job. I listened to a bit of Skor North today, and they referred to it as Stockholm Syndrome. That’s almost understating it….but the idea is spot on. It’s unbelievable that the media (again, defacto on the Twins payroll….people scared to death of losing their status or getting the side eye from a Twins employee) is willing to die on this hill just to hobnob on the press box and locker room.

Off topic a bit, but I can’t get over how awful that Marlins style hat is. Not only is this FO incapable of doing anything baseball related, but they turned our uniforms into an abomination as well. I do like the Navy and Cream uniforms with the TC logo. I’ll give them that one. Nothing else on or off the field is acceptable.

This team will not make the playoffs, IMO. They were carried by unsustainably great starting pitching for a period of time. That’s drying up. If they do somehow sneak into the playoffs, I don’t think the rotation is good enough to carry them very far. The offense and bullpen are in absolute shambles. There is no correction in sight. There’s no game changing prospects, no trade ammunition, there’s no help coming. With the FO sitting on their hands and management making every move they can to lose baseball games, this thing is close to entering a terminal velocity free fall. Once they lose the clubhouse, which has to be getting dangerously close, there’s nothing that can be done.

I mean, look at the pitching chart above. We have 3 serviceable relievers right now. Duran, Stewart, and Jax. They’ve collectively thrown fewer pitches and have have only 1 more appearance than a guy (Moran) who physically can’t throw an effective strike over the plate (4 appearances and 38 pitches for the former three vs. 3 appearances and 48 pitches for Moran). You can’t make this up. This is off the rails, out of control, lunacy. If I’m the commissioner, I open an investigation into whether they are actively throwing games for betting purposes. They can’t possibly be this incompetent.

They keep running these bullpen guys out there off the scrap heap. They keep running useless position players out there. They DH the best centerfield on the planet while playing the worst defender in the league at 2B. And it’s a mystery to them why it doesn’t work. “We have to figure this out.” I believe Baledelli that they don’t know. They asked Chat GPT and it told them this would work. This is a Three Stooges level comedy. Unrivaled incompetence. Is there a more poorly run professional sports franchise on planet earth right now?

He didn’t have that rough of an outing. We see worse outings nearly daily out of someone in our bullpen. Gray is supposed to be the leader of our pitching staff, the anchor. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this year. He’s right to be pissed at the seemingly incompetent (lately) Rocco Baldelli, who makes the wrong move 9 times out of 10. No matter how many writers that are de facto on the Twins payroll try to spin this as the right move…. It was the wrong move. If the Twins would’ve won the game, there would be an argument there. But, the bullpen went on to give up 3 runs immediately. No matter what the spreadsheet says, it didn’t work. It’s an overarching theme. It’s not the one loss that’s the issue. That’s what the “ball guys” seem to missing. There’s a human element here, and pitchers and agents are always thinking about the next contract. Who the hell is going to want to pitch here if you’re going to get yanked after 75 pitches and 2 earned runs after 5 innings? What would it have hurt this team to give Gray a shot to work through an off day? We’re seeing it across the board right now. Pinch hitting for guys like Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis for some bad journeyman because they hit on the opposite side is absurd. They’ve gone too far. We’re watching the Frankenstein’s Monster of baseball analytics.

The list of moves this FO has made is incredible. You could literally take any random person off the street and they couldn’t have done worse. Acquiring Cruz and the Cruz/Ryan deal were very good ones, but I’m not sure I see another quality move they’ve made. I loved the Lopez/Arraez trade at the time it happened. I don’t think there’s a reasonable person that wouldn’t undo that if given the chance. Lopez has proved to be decent. Not great. Meanwhile, Arraez is hitting .400 and we can’t score a run. I wasn’t a huge fan of Lopez/Cano swap at the time. But, holy cow has that turned out to be a godawful move. Baltimore clearly knew something was up with Lopez (or, anyone that’s really studied his long term track record) and they absolutely fleeced Falvine. The Mahle trade is an absolute disaster. The Rogers/Paddack deal hasn’t really been anything detrimental. But, they got no value out of what was a slightly valuable asset at the time Rogers. We’ve called for them to be aggressive, and they have been. I’ll give them a sliver of credit for that. But, who the heck is the finally sign off on these player evaluations? I’ve like some of these moves on the surface, as have many of us, but we’re not being paid 6 figures to get these evaluations right. Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt on the trades. But, their roster management has also been absolutely abysmal. IL management is awful. They haven’t found a way to keep guys healthy. They’ve done things like sending Ober, who has turned out to be our best pitcher, to AAA to throw games away for a guy like Maeda who clearly didn’t have it. Is there a FO doing a worse job with the resources they have in the MLB right now? We used to be able to make the excuse of payroll constraints with the Ryan regime….that’s not there anymore (to a certain extent). All that venting on the FO aside - that Detroit series was the most disappointing series I recall (other than the playoffs) in a long, long time. It’s a wonder that anybody is showing up the ballpark to watch this.

You do realize that Buxton has incurred significant IL time in his career for things that didn’t happen while playing CF, right? HBP, sliding into bases, pulling muscles running to first. He crashed into a wall a couple of times and got a concussion diving for a ball. He just sat out a couple of weeks for a HBP. He’s a pretty good hitter. He’s not an elite one. We’re not talking about Mike Trout, here. But, he might be the best defensive CF if all time. You’re comparing that to a 42 year old Nelson Cruz and Paul Molitor who would’ve been absolute butchers in the field? What makes you think this plan is working so far? Have you seen his numbers? How many games has he missed this year? How does his projected WAR type numbers compare to years when he was 5, 6, 7 WAR seasons as a CFer. Why would you assume he’s going to be there for the playoffs this year? What makes you think this team will even be in the playoffs this year? After all these years, what makes you think Favline and Baldelli’s ideas are golden and the best course? Hes far more valuable when he’s playing defense. There is no precedent set that says otherwise. None. That’s where he should be. 20 extra games per year as a DH K’ing 40% of the time and OPSing league average does not increase his value. He’s performed better offensively in the past when playing in the field as well. This experiment is what’s flippant. It’s absurd. He’s a generational defensive talent that’s being wasted because of some irrational fear (the injuries are still there). Lastly, as you said, which was spot on - it’s restricting the roster to a point where it’s damaging the team. It’s a double whammy. It’s suppressing his value and taking another potential dangerous bat out of the lineup. Bottom line. It is not making the team better. It is not getting them closer to a championship in any way. It’s making the team worse.

No, it doesn’t. That’s how business fails. You can see it happening right in front of your eyes.

The reality that it’s because of the roughly $4M remaining of his $8M salary in the last year of his deal is even more ridiculous. I mean, he does bring some value defensively. So he’s not totally useless. But it’s pretty clear after the last 3 years that the guy just isn’t going to come around at the plate.

That’s pretty interesting. Really good pitcher. But, he’s got 5 quality starts this year. Joe Ryan has 10.

I’m tired of hearing every move this organization makes that doesn’t work was the right move because of a theory. Their job is to achieve the desired result. That’s it. There’s no consolation prize. There’s no theoretical win but actual loss. Was pulling Gray the right move in a vacuum? Sure, maybe. None of us know for sure, so acting like it was 100% correct is disingenuous. But, I wont dispute it - we’ll go with that premise. The problem is then going into a bullpen that is a complete abomination. That has to be factored into the equation. Gray was laboring…so we turn over to guys incapable of getting outs? And that’s something we should credit somebody for? If Gray truly was cooked, you just lose either way. Thats where the problems lie. There were moves (or lack there of) that led to the failure in that moment. Their job is put together a bullpen that gets results. They seemingly can’t do that. I’m not going to turn around and credit them for a good move in that situation with that being the case. They failed. Bottom line, their collective decision making led to the failure. Not luck. There are “oh well, that’s baseball” moments. I agree. But, when you’re saying that 3-4 times per week, there’s a larger problem that requires accountability.

Not sure how reliable these numbers are. The eye test tells me Correa and Taylor are better than that. If they are reliable, my takeaway is to get Buxton back in CF. Seeing those numbers in left field (assuming it’s reliable) makes me realize how silly it is that we’re playing Larnach there so often at the expense of one of the best defensive outfielders in the game (Gallo). Add it to the list of head scratching moves by this club. There seems to be value in various guys that is wasted.

These things work themselves out with injuries. Especially on this club where nobody can stay healthy. But, if he gets things going, find a way to get him in the lineup. Royce isn’t playing everyday at third (they’ve been giving him days off or DH here or there). There some ABs to be had at 1B/DH. Clearly the Buxton DH experiment didn’t keep him healthy, so might at well get him out in centerfield occasionally. As said above, Buxton’s value is in CF. They need to stop screwing around with Kepler. They are obsessed with milking a penance of value out of him that they’re harming the team. Guys like Castro and Solano have had their moments. But, they’re not a long term answer. It makes no sense to cling to guys like that. We pulled them out of the bargain bin. If Miranda returns to form, he’s a better player than Solano. We have 4 of the best defensive outfielders in the league on the roster (Kepler in RF, Gallo anywhere, Buxton and Taylor in CF). We don’t need to be playing Castro in the OF. This shouldn’t be a problem. We have multiple guys that can give up ABs or just be let go. I don’t know where this narrative came from that we have this immovable logjam of talent. It’s just not there.

Correa might finally be coming around. He’s stacking up the extra base hits over the past week. The importance of that can’t be overstated. It’s almost like this team has been given a second chance at life being in such a bad division. Get Buxton healthy and back in the lineup. Get Wallner another shot and find a way to keep Julien up here. Quit giving Pagan and Lopez innings that have even a modicum of leverage. Quit screwing around, get your best players and pitchers on the field, and stop throwing games by getting cute with all this lineup and bullpen shenanigans. They need to find a way to use this run of success as a springboard to separate from the rest of the division.

Since they’ve take over about 7-8 years ago, we’re supposed to heap praise on them for making those 3 trades, but botching about a dozen? They’ve traded for more injured or useless pitchers that they’ve gotten nothing out of alone (Mahle, Paddack, Dyson, Shaun Anderson) than trades that have worked out. Escobar has been an All Star since he left here while being a primary 3B - a position of need for us since the trade. He’s also played games at 2B and SS. He’s accumulated nearly 10 oWAR over that time. He’s put up OPS+ numbers of 102, 111, 109, 107, 115, and 107 at his various stops along the way (some of those are partial years). He did have a very rough 2020 with an injury and got off to a slow start this year, otherwise has been a well above average hitter for a number of years now. Other than 2020, he consistently available and playing 140+ games (something nobody else on this roster can do). He’s a pretty darn good player. Jhoan Duran is freaking awesome, but he’s a reliever we use twice per week on a team that can’t score a run. There’s only so much value there. We can’t say the Sonny Gray trade is a success. He’s in his mid 30s. He’s been largely good here, but Chase Petty has a career 3.06 ERA with 125 Ks/37 BB in 123 innings, primarily in low/high A as a 19 year old. This year, he’s started 5 games and allowed 1 earned run with more than a K per inning and about 2 walks per 9. That could turn out to be an awful trade. He might be our top pitching prospect right now with a bullet. The Mahle and Jorge Lopez trades are unmitigated disasters. Have you seen what Steer and CES are doing right now? CES is slashing .362/.427/.735 at AAA. Spencer Steer has a 118 OPS+ in the majors. Buxton and Correa, our superstars, have a 113 and 97 OPS+. ESPN is doing front page features about Cano being the best reliever in baseball. How about Lamonte Wade Jr.? That 139 OPS+ would sure be nice in this lineup. We traded him for a middle reliever who gave up 9 runs over 8 innings before being DFA’d. There is absolutely no question these guys have done extremely poorly on the trade market. They’ve had a couple nice trades (Ryan being the best), but overall they have gotten fleeced, repeatedly. There is not even a debate that can be had there. The amount of talent they’ve given away that is thriving vastly outweighs what they’ve gotten in return. It’s not even close. It’s OK to say that. It doesn’t make you less of a fan or more of a ball guy.

Part of me wishes this team were in a better division so there wasn’t an out for those running this thing. They’re terrible, but they’ll still probably win the division. All the “ball guys” will heap praise on the FO for “winning.” This thing needs a bottom-out and good house cleaning. It’s a dead end road that’s we’re on. I’m done with it. Same thing every year.

A good reason why it’s good to go after free agents, even when the team may not have high aspirations. You can continue to add to your prospect pool instead of just sitting in stasis waiting to catch lightning in a bottle on a current prospect.

This team is a joke. And people still simp for Falvine like they’re beyond reproach. I’m not seeing any signs that they know how to compile a serviceable roster. It’s the same thing every year now. A constant quest to beat the system and find “value” in these obscure analytics darlings that can’t actually play baseball. Then, it falls apart after about a month of decent ball, and everyone is shocked. Can you imagine the reaction in a real baseball market if they ran a guy like Max Kepler out there after hitting .150 with no power for what’s now about a full season. And he stunk for 2 years before that? Not only that, but sending down a top prospect down who’s in the middle of a 1.500 OPS fire storm to make room for him? Or, taking one of the best defensive center fielders in the history of the game and making him a DH to try and milk 50 extra hobbled ABs out of him? Or, burning Bailey Ober’s innings in AAA for the zombie corpse of Kenta Maeda? All while watching guys like Spencer Steer, Luis Arraez, Tyler Wells, Yanier Cano, and a number of others absolutely flourish. It’s a parody of how a baseball team should be run at this point. Every decision they make is the wrong one. They are bad at this.