Beast

Yeah it’s nuts that people not only under-appreciate Mauer, but almost openly detest him. He’s one of the best and most complete catchers the game has ever seen. Period. At his peak of winning batting titles, hitting doubles like a machine, and playing gold glove caliber defense - name more than one or two in history that was better at the position. The longevity wasn’t necessarily there at the position that some like Bench and Rodriguez have. But, it’s not the hall of longevity. That criteria is sometimes weighted too heavily, IMO. Especially at the catcher position. The contract talk is just absurd. He gets knocked because he was paid for was they thought he would do and he didn’t do it? What? He also got paid peanuts while being the best catcher in the game for 5-6 years. That somehow gets twisted into him fleecing the Twins in some way and being a detriment? Get the hell out of here (figuratively). That’s just ridiculous. Not only that, but he’s a hometown kid. He played out his career here. He lives and invests in the community. And he was a key cog in the longest consecutive run of success this dumpster fire of an organization has ever seen. If they select Mark Prior instead of Mauer, things look much worse for this franchise over the last 22 years. Also, a total class act. People worship at the idols of guys like Puckett who are complete scumbags. There’s something to be said about performing off the field as well. His one knock IMO is not winning enough in the postseason. But, who knows what happens there if Phil Cuzzy didn’t openly rig a playoff game for the Yankees and call a double fair by 30 feet a foul ball.

I like both of these guys in a bench role. Not in a starting role. Many want Gordon to start. I need to see more. One half season on his entire pro career isn’t enough for me to hand him the stating spot a premium offensive position (left field). If he continues his second half of 2022 a month or two into 2023, I’ll start to buy in.

Yes they’re overrated. They still couldn’t compete with the legitimately good baseball teams in the AL when it mattered. If they played in the AL East or West, they wouldn’t have won as many games. Probably something like a one and done wild card. It’s fair to wonder whether they would’ve hit as many home runs - likely not with the better pitching. They beat the Yankees for the home run title by 1. Do the math. The front office once botched the deadline and failed to add anything, which always seems to happen here. So, who knows what might of been. Fun team to watch. Some really awesome games that summer (the Yankees fame in late July….that they still lost). But, it was in the consolation bracket from the beginning. They happened to catch lightning in a bottle by assembling the perfect group of fly ball hitters with a juiced ball against some really bad in-division pitching. No chance in hell of getting by both the Yankees and Astros that year.

We have limited options where I am as well. Also, my 5 year old daughter has been adamant about needing to go to Applebees because of the “Fancy Like” bro country song. So, it’s a nightmare on multiple levels. Save yourselves.

They didn’t sign one of the better defensive outfielders in the game (Gallo) to play first base. They certainly didn’t sign him backup Nick Gordon as the starter in left. He would spit on the floor at that notion and go get a starting gig somewhere else. Let’s compare some numbers, which is what the FO is going to base their decision on. Before getting to NY in 2021, Gallo had an OPS+ of 138 and an OPS of .869 with the Rangers. Some care about batting average. I don’t as much. In 2021 he walked 111 times (led the league) and hit 38 HRs. He scored 90 runs in 498 ABs. In a 5 year span from 2017-2021, Gallo OPS+’d 118, 109, 145, 87, and 121 Lets be generous to Nick Gordon and throw out 2021, in which he had a 79 OPS+ (which exactly matches Gallos 2022 and everyone thinks he’s useless, btw, and is by far the worst of his career). We likely just saw Nick Gordon’s offensive ceiling based on his career output. He OPS’d .743, which is average. He OPS+’d 113, which is good. The .316 OBP is much less than desirable. His defense is at best serviceable. At worst, bad. If you’re one that believes Nick Gordon has another step to take, I applaud your optimism. But, that’s all it is. He’s shown little statically in his professional career that would lead anyone to believe he’s going to improve over last year’s numbers. He was not that good last year, people seem to be missing that. He was a 1.6 WAR player. He’s a bench guy. Gallo has multiple All Star seasons, has won multiple Gold Gloves, has a career OPS .50 points higher than Gordon, and is only 29 years old. I think some think he’s a washed up old guy past his prime. Gordon is going to turn 28 this year. The ceilings here aren’t even close. Long story short, Gallo starts in left quite a bit. Period. People think he’s a right fielder - he’s got more MLB starts in left than right by a fairly wide margin. He’s played the majority of his MLB games in left. Gordon gets worked in when Gallo DHs. It’s fluid, so contain your rage. It can change if Gallo continues to stink and Gordon continues to play well. But, you have to look at the numbers here and throw out blind optimism and recency bias. I’m more inclined to give someone like Farmer ABs at 1st. Bring up Julien to play there. Teach Larnach. Wallner. Hell, even play Gordon or Kepler there, before taking Joey Gallo and putting him there full time. It’s like arguing we put Buxton at 1st full time. That would a be gross mismanagement of assets. You’re eliminating his best skill, one that’s elite relative to anyone else in the team and the league. It’s ridiculous.

Fake news. Applebees nachos are awful. I can’t stand by quietly. Whether satire or not, the idea may take hold and impact someone’s life. If I save just one person from ordering Applebees nachos, it’s worth it.

Ryan’s the future, maybe even current, “face” of this pitching staff. I’d go with him. Gray is just meh. Nobody is talking about with excitement, nobody is driving to the ballpark from places like Luverne, Roseau, North/South Dakota to see Gray pitch. Cant give it to either Mahle or Lopez. You just got the fans walked back from ledge after trading a load of prospects for an injured Mahle and a fan favorite in Arraez for Lopez. You think they’ll risk one of them going out and putting up a 5 run first inning on opening day? PR train wreck.

Don’t know why you wouldn’t do this. If he does what he’s been doing, he’s our second best reliever. Do I think they will? No. Maybe it’s the right move. There’s a reason why he’s still out there. One note: I’m not sure I’d go as far as calling this team a legitimate contender unless we’re just referring the division. We still don’t have a front-line horse starter that I think we’d need for a long playoff run. The FO has done a good job with their limited resources this off-season, but still not sure I feel great about Gray, Ryan, Mahle, or Lopez taking the mound in Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Better than Dobnak…but I think we need a little more juice there before booking ALCS tickets.

I’m a big fan of baseball prospectus. If he’s good enough for their top 100, I’d probably have him a little higher on the list. But, the offensive returns seem a little light and we really know nothing about the guy coming from the Marlins system. So, it’s hard to argue with his placement here. I can’t get behind putting him behind a guy like Wallner or Martin, as mentioned above. This is a prospect ranking, not current skill set ranking. I don’t look at Wallner, Martin, Canterino and see a high ceiling. I see a couple guys we hope develop into serviceable roll players and have no real defensive home. Salas has more potential than some 25 year old college guys with extremely checkered track records, whether due to performance or injury. If you’re one that hated the Joey Gallo signing, not sure how you can simultaneously be higher on Wallner than a guy like Salas. Joey Gallo with no defense is probably the highest reaches of Wallner’s ceiling.

They’re finding a way to get a promising prospect in the lineup. People are up in arms if they don’t do this. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t, I guess. Gio Urshela is an OK player. But, he’s not the answer to anything. If he was, he’d still be a Yankee. This team isn’t going to win or lose because of Gio freaking Urshela. They can easily give him 1B or DH time if it doesn’t work at third. It’s not like he would be playing SS or CF. What development is he missing out on? He’ll be 25 this June. You want him playing 2nd base or DHing for St. Paul? Why is that less risky? Then you’d be upset that he’s taking time from Julien. As mentioned, they also have solutions for 3B outside of Miranda. Either Lewis or Lee is 100% ending up at 3rd. If one of them doesn’t, it’s because Correa moved there. Everyone would be screaming about “blocking” prospects if they’d signed someone to play 3rd. They’d also be upset because free agent contracts are too risky. If they hand over the keys to a prospect it’s also too risky. We don’t want Miranda at third with his track record, but we want the significantly lesser track record of Nick Gordon and his shoddy defense to start a premium offensive position. I’m confused. Im fine with it, is the short answer.

A lot are concerned about 1-2 mph on his fastball (if he threw 95-96 instead of 93-94 we’d be calling it plus velocity). There are more factors that make a fastball good than just velocity. We see it with Joe Ryan. So, I don’t think we need to break out the Greg Maddox, and the handful of other slow tossing outliers throughout the years. If we’re banking on him turning into a guy like that, he’s in trouble. There are very few guys at any given time that thrive with well below average fastballs. As another poster mentioned above - his is just fine. The concern is the secondary stuff. You can’t get by on a fastball alone. Whatever the speed. Guys eat 100 mph fastballs for breakfast. I’m optimistic he’ll be a serviceable back end guy. Which is just fine.

Hard to argue with that. That would be my choice also. I knew I’d see people in here calling Nick Gordon and his career defensive deficit and average bat (at best) the most underrated player. Despite 80% of fans clamoring to hand him a starting spot at a corner OF spot. He’s arguably the most overrated player at this point. This FO would squeeze water out of a stone if it was there be had with with their beefed up analytics department. After running the numbers, they were so confident in Gordon that they signed Gallo, traded for Taylor, and are keeping Kepler.

That’s not where the competitive advantage lies, though. It lies in your willingness to acquire and retain players. Analyze and scout your heart out. If you’re the Royals and won’t give any money to the players you’re scouting, who cares. Great job with those all high draft picks and coaching them up for the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers to reap the rewards later. The competitive advantage in baseball is in the payroll. That’s why this league needs a salary cap or more expansive profit sharing. And 5.2 runs per game is massively different than 3.8. That’s not some minuscule difference. Hits per game mean nothing if not adjusted for power.

I’ve never understood the take that acquiring Gallo unequivocally means they need to move Kepler. And the reason for that is Trevor Larnach, et all. It made more sense when we still had Arraez on the roster. We don’t anymore. Trevor Larnach hasn’t done a whole to show he should be handed the keys to anything. His numbers stink. Gallo has positional flexibility. He can play all 3 OF spots and first base. The team has shown they like to rest guys and move them around. There’s also a DH slot to fill. There is a ridiculous track record of injuries on this club. The guy currently assumed to be slotted in at 1B might never hit worth a squat in his career because of chronic wrist issue. And, frankly, his overall numbers stink. They would get nothing in return for Kepler that exceeds his value to the team. They would essentially be giving him away to make room for Gordon and Larnach. The value of Kepler has gotten fairly underrated. It’s almost turned into hyperbole this off-season. He’s been between a 2-4 WAR player every year of his career. Gordon has a full seasons worth of plate appearances (over 600). He’s got exactly a 0.0% WPA, a 101 OPS+, a .711 OPS, 1.7 WAR and a negative overall dWAR. And people look at him like a prospect - he’s 2 years younger than Kepler at 27. Trevor Larnach has just under a full season with a -2.5 WPA, a 94 OPS+, a .687 OPS, a 1.9 WAR and a 0.7 dWAR. He’s 26. These aren’t young guys. They’re already exiting their physical prime. Maybe Kepler won’t be any better that. Who knows. But right now, even with is anemic offense, his OF defense makes him a more valuable player than both of these guys. He also has a longer track record of OPSing higher than both of these guys. He makes 6 million dollars - that’s peanuts. For context, Michael Taylor makes $4.5 to be a backup. I just don’t see the benefit out running Kepler out of town for a poor return right now. It just feels like a bad move.

There are some hideous numbers in that group for the older players (21+). Not sure some of those guys should even be on the list at this point. Schoebel is looking like another poorly executed reach with a high draft pick by this FO. Maybe I’m wrong, but there seems to be a pattern of them grabbing a guy well above the projection, and it turns out very poorly (Cavaco, Sabato, Schoebel, off the top of my head). I know, baseball drafts are a crap shoot, I get it. But holy crap have these guys struck out in the draft. Out of all the drafts they’ve been a part of, nobody drafted has made a major impact in the MLB (maybe Ober and Jax), and only 2 are on the current top 100 list (at the same position). Maybe I’m missing some significant ones. We’re not talking about a small sample size anymore. They’ve had, what, 6-7 drafts? And they’ve clearly targeted college level players who should reach the majors much quicker. They seem to have done well in other areas, and there are a few promising drafted prospects right now (Prielipp, Varland, Julien, Lee, Miller). So, things could turn quickly.

I’d put the Arraez trade above signing Vasquez. Maybe even #1. Various outlets analyzing the values exchanged in that trade say the Twins fleeced the Marlins. They got a quality young starter with All-Star upside, a top 100 prospect, and another promising throw-in for a guy that can’t hit for power, can’t play defense, can’t run, can’t get through a season healthy, and plays the least “premium” position in baseball where we have a massive surplus. Im also of the opinion that his hit tool (“average”) has been exaggerated. It’s not like the guy hits .340 like Gwynn and prime Mauer. He hit below .300 in 2021 and .317 in 2022. Thats very good, but people have somehow warped that into some sort of generational talent. I absolutely love that move from a baseball standpoint. I know many don’t agree, but that’s how I see it.

Guy came from nowhere and worked himself into $10M and a postseason start at Yankee Stadium. No matter how things go from here on out, things went pretty darn well for that guy. Pretty cool story.

Larnach has a .370 slugging and .680 OPS in 430 ABs. Kirilloff - .398, .694 in 350. They have 2 WAR between the two of them in 800 ABs. We’ll find out how much that is due to injury, I guess. Im not sure Kirilloff will be the same. I don’t doubt he wouldve been a good hitter if not for the wrist. Im more optimistic about him. I’m not so sure about Larnach.

First, $11 million is pocket change in the MLB world. There is no risk in terms of money here whatsoever. Second, you’re focusing on batting average and walks. He’s got a career OPS around .800 and OPS+ around 110. Gordon and Kepler’s career numbers aren’t going to hit those marks. Gallo is so far beyond Gordon in terms of outfield defense, there’s no comparison. He’s also better than Kepler. If you want to compare careers, he’s a superior player to both of them even with his historically bad year last year. I’ll never understand how so many people here say they don’t want Gallo on the team, while simultaneously clamoring to hand the keys over to Nick Gordon who has almost no extended track record of success at any level of professional baseball. There’s a reason why the FO isn’t handing Gordon the keys to anything other than a bench role. He’s not that good.

I’m a fan of the move. If you’re going to be scared of any sort of long-term big money commitment to external free agents (like many fans here seem to be), you have to take fliers like this one if you want to compete. Especially if you’re going to burn your high draft picks with poor evaluations of guys like Sabato, Rooker, Gordon, Cavaco, etc. You can’t have it both ways. If it doesn’t work out, nothing is lost. He’s not blocking anybody. He’s not going to hold this team back from winning anything. If the team stinks with him, they would’ve stunk without him. But. There’s a slim chance he returns to form and helps the team win some games. He’s also immediately one of the better defenders on the team with position flexibility.

Buxton, Correa, Ryan, Lopez, Polanco Buxton is going to be a monster this year. I didn’t realize this until now, but his BABIP was .244. He still OPS’d well over .800 and had phenomenal underlying numbers like wOBA, wRC+, ISO was off the charts. That BABIP is absurdly low for a guy with his average exit velocity (97th percentile), barrel % (97th percentile), hard hit % (93rd percentile) and sprint speed (92nd percentile). If that normalizes even to league average, we could be looking at a ridiculous year for Buxton, even if he only plays 100 games. It was .344 the year before in 61 games. .314 in 2019, .339 in 2017, .329 in 2016, .301 in 2015. I’m out of my mind excited for what Buxton could do at the plate this year. I think Correa comes down a little offensively. Still good enough on both side to be comfortably on the list. Ryan, Lopez, and Polanco will be rock solid. Honorable Mentions: Alex K was on my list until I replaced him with Polanco before posting. If he returns to pre-injury form, he’s an absolute monster in the batters box. Playing first should keep him from losing points defensively. I had a hard time leaving Kepler out. Despite the hatred that’s developed for him, his floor is still a 2 WAR player. The shift rules may push that up around 3. If he swings the bat a little better in addition to the shift change, we could be looking at a 4. Context: Arraez was 3rd on the team in WAR around 3. Sonny Gray could easily end up in there. He’s on the list if I thought he’d stay healthy enough to throw 150/160+ innings. I don’t think he will He hasn’t even sniffed 200 since 2015. I considered Royce Lewis. But, he won’t get enough MLB time. I also highly doubt he’s going to consistently slug .550 like we saw in last year’s small sample. He had never sniffed .500 at any level of the minors prior to 2022.

The prospect write-ups/updates are my favorite part about TD. No other outlet does it better. Man, that Cavaco pick just keeps looking worse. It’s not really a hindsight thing, either. I recall it being very questionable at the time. I know, it’s how the baseball draft works. But, looking back and seeing Corbin Carrol, Gunnar Henderson and others go after him is painful. It’s one thing if there’s somewhat of a consensus about a players draft slot (Nick Gordon, for example). But, when a lot of analysts wonder what the hell you’re doing and it turns out like this…you have to wonder what the hell they were doing. Overall their first round/compensatory draft track record leaves a lot to be desired. Especially if Royce Lewis can’t stay on the field.

I’d love to take a flier on this kid. Worse case, the Pohlads burn some pocket change. Best case is another hammer at the back end of the bullpen. This is the way to dredge out a high-end reliever of you don’t want to pay the big bucks for it. I don’t see how waiving the white flag on a guy like this and running out some AAAA schlub is a better option in any way (unless he’s a locker room cancer). If he gets hurt, you still get the schlub.

I’m not any more concerned about Fulmer than I am guys Henriquez, Megill, Pagan, Sands, even Lopez. Some of these metrics have to have some sort of predictive value. Is Fulmer’s slider still better than some of the other bums in the roster despite losing an inch? Do we care that Pagan or Megill’s pitches have some increment of more movement when we’ve seen time and time again they stink? Not saying I do or do not believe in Fulmer. But, it’s not like we have a full boat here. I’ll welcome anyone who has shown they can get hitters out in recent history.

I think we’re done. May pick up a highly discounted bullpen arm as we near spring training at most. I think Kepler is staying. The chances of us giving up what it would take to get Reynolds is 0%. Even if we were willing to come up with a package the Pirates would take, which I doubt, Reynolds isn’t asking out to get shipped off to an equally inept franchise in terms of playoff track record, and one that won’t give him the monster contract he’s likely looking for (hence the trade request). He wants to go win, and get his big payday instead of getting strung along in low ball arbitration on a loser. The chances of him coming before Correa was nearly 0%. After signing Correa, it’s just as likely we reanimate the corpse of Willie Mays to play LF.