Beast

Buxton is happy to sit? Not sure if that’s who you’re referring to. Say what you want about Buxton and injuries. But, nobody can accuse the guy of sandbagging. By all accounts I’ve ever heard, the guy is as competitive as it gets.

He’s a good backup option to have for when Buxton goes on the IL. He’s still at minimum a quality late game defensive replacement for a guy like Gordon or Garlick. He’s still young and has more offensive upside than Taylor. Maybe even a solid trade piece for a bullpen arm. Theres still value there.

My preference would probably be Buxton into Correa 2nd. Just give the two best hitters in the team the most ABs. I could be sold on Polanco with Correa and Buxton following.

The big problem that seems to be missed by the analysis here: Nobody wants to watch baseball anymore. Maybe if Manfred wasn’t the most hatable man on the planet, quit doing stupid crap like tweaking the baseball every year and lying about it, running cover for cheaters, cramming identity politics down everyone’s throat when they’re trying to escape it by watching sports, and was good at his job, they wouldn’t be in this predicament. Things like installing nets down the baseline are the big news items of the sport. I can hardly contain my excitement. You want more people to watch? Do something to create some parity. Nobody cares about baseball because there’s a handful of big market teams and everyone else is a developmental program for them. 3/4 of the markets have been completely alienated. Places like Oakland, Kansas City, Baltimore, etc. - even Minneapolis, could be great baseball towns. You could contract them all out of the league right now and nobody would notice. They’re the only sport on the planet that does such a high volume of day games during week. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that if you want people to pay to watch, play a damn game when someone between 22-65 years old can watch it. Change the idiotic system that incentives teams to keep potential star players stashed away at some bandbox in the middle of a cornfield in Iowa to save some money and maximize their service time. Quit making all of these stupid half-added rules and address real problems. Is there anything worse to watch in sports than a play at the plate after the rule changes? Umps don’t know how to call it and are getting it wrong. Base runners are pulling up early, catchers are scared to touch anyone, etc. It used to be one of the most exciting moments/plays in sports. The league is a poorly run disaster. They literally.couldn’t be a doing a worse job. How can you not go bankrupt?

Not sure this is far from the truth. This guy was also likely, and very ironically, very upset about the Arraez trade.

Who else was supposed to hit in those 1-4 spots in the order? That roster has stunk since the end of 2019. Nick Gordon? Who, by the way, has the exact same career OPS+ as Kepler while being much worse defensively. But, people act as if he’s a rising star while simultaneously calling for Kepler to be traded or benched. You need to have a better player to replace him. We don’t have one that’s been able to play RF and stay on the field.

I’m feeling pretty good about this team as well. As it did last year, it’ll all come down to injuries. If all goes well, we could have 5 or 6 quality starters, all with ERAs below 4. There’s no big stopper there, but about as solid a rotation top to bottom as you’ll find. The bullpen could be lights out if Jax takes another step and Lopez returns to form. Maybe Ober/Winder end up there as well, further solidifying. Defensively, there’s not a better team up the middle (Vasquez, Correa, Buxton). Gallo and Kepler make the best corner outfield tandem in the MLB. Polanco is good enough at 2nd. The only question mark is Miranda at 3rd, and we have Farmer to provide a high quality fill in. Offensively, Gallo could rebound and hit for a ton of power. Kepler could benefit from the shift and improve. Buxton could play 120 games with an .850-.900 OPS. Polanco could stay healthy and return to an .800+ OPS. Kirilloff’s wrist could turn out fine and he returns to being an absolute monster. Correa will likely continue to mash. This could be a very, very good lineup. None of these things are that outlandish. There’s just so many things that need to break favorably. Some of them are bound to happen, which makes us a better team. I have almost no doubt we’ll win more games than last year. I will say, if we break off another losing season, Baldelli will certainly be fired. I’m less confident Falvine will be - but should be. It feels like a make or break season.

Since Arraez is a first baseman/DH here, I would argue he’s not really being replaced by someone like Julien. They’re not taking Arraez’s 500 PAs and handing them 1 for 1 to Julien. He might not see any of those ABs. He’s more being replaced by Kirilloff, Gallo, Miranda, and the plethora of other hitters that will get 1B/DH ABs. Hopefully there’s more ABs from Buxton sprinkled in there as well. I feel like that’s lost on people. It’s not an unknown commodity taking over. There’s a pretty good chance that the replacements above end up OPSing higher than Arraez would have.

I don’t think we’re trading Kepler. Not sure why we’re concerned about Larnach. He’s not that good. He might get there someday. But, we’re trying to win baseball games right now. Gallo is one of the best defensive corner outfielders in baseball. Kepler is also. Either of them would be our best defensive left fielder by a mile (excluding Buxton/Taylor). Much better than Larnach or Gordon. If Gallo and Kepler hit a little bit this year (whether regression or shift changes), we’re a way better team with both of them in the lineup. If the FO thought Larnach or Gordon were a potential full time answer in left, they wouldn’t have brought in Gallo, IMO. They didn’t bring him in to DH. I can’t imagine Gallo would sign here to be a bench guy. They likely gave him playing time assurances. The Taylor move tells me they don’t want to move Gallo, Gordon or Kepler to CF when Buxton goes down. They’re not going to pay Kepler his salary to be a 4th OF under Gordon. That would be ridiculous on multiple levels. I think we’ll see an OF of Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler quite often, which has way more upside than Gordon or Larnach in there. This is all assuming Alex K plays first. If they’re going to surprise everyone and work him into the OF rotation, Larnach and Gordon are even more expendable. Gordon’s “value” from being a utility/emergency SS is gone with Farmer, Polanco, and Lewis coming back (all are better). Honestly, I might rather have Garlick over Larnach or Gordon. His help against LH pitching might be more valuable than anything Larnach or Gordon could offer.

Arraez didn’t really have long ABs. That’s an incorrect perception that’s been developed for one reason or another. Gleeman and Bonnes had some great stats to back this up on their podcast. On average, there are a number of Twins players that see more pitches. Arraez is nearly exactly league average in that department. I believe his average per AB or PA (don’t remember which) is exactly the same as Gilberto Celestino. I haven’t yet heard anyone lament the impact that Celestino in AAA will have on the lineup (they’ll see fewer pitches from the on deck circle). It’s funny how that perception is created. Guys like Sano and Gallo see a ton of pitches. But, people think they’re up there hacking at everything because of the K numbers. It’s actually the opposite. They are just often in 3-2 or 2-2 counts before swinging the bat. (Another nice bit of context/info from Gleeman/Geek). I’ve heard national guys saying this too. How guys like Jazz Chisholm will benefit greatly from seeing all these extra pitches with Arraez in front of them. Staring into the camera saying things are completely made up and false. Fascinating little case study in mis/dis information.

We need a RH bat. We could use more guys with his playoff experience. I wouldn’t hate it for those reasons. His overall playoff stats are rather pedestrian. Actually has a negative overall WPA in the playoffs. But, he’s had some good series and big moments. Also, can’t find a substitute for that experience. Winning experience. This roster is very immature in that regard (except Correa).

I don’t like that. He’s only good for so many innings a year. When he’s healthy he’s good. I’d rather they not waste them in AAA. None of these guys are really work horses in terms of innings. Some are coming off injury and aren’t going to be tossing 120 pitches over 7 2/3. We’re going to see a lot of 4-5 inning starts early in the year: Use someone as a swing man to come in and throw 3-4 innings. I’d rather turn it over to Ober or Maeda in the 5th than stringing together a couple guys like Pagan before Duran.

I see your point, but disagree that he’s our best hitter. The average is nice, sure. But, he had 20 more hits than Carlos Correa over the course of the season, and Correa misses time. When those extra hits are mostly singles with nobody on base, there’s not a ton of value added there. Correa hit like 13-14 more home runs, OPS’d .30 points higher, walked more, and was a full 10 points higher in OPS+. It’s not even close, frankly. A healthy Buxton (I know) and Kirilloff are right up there also. But, yes, I see your point and it’s valid. After hearing some analysis of Lopez by a few different people….it sounds like there’s some upside there. He’s under two years of control, and they threw in a top 100 prospect. You just can’t say know to that for an empty .315 batting average and bad knees.

The Twins would’ve been nuts to say no to this deal, IMO. They need to start replenishing the farm system. They added a top 100 prospect. They needed a starting pitcher. They added a cheap, rock solid middle of the rotation guy under team control, with some All Star caliber upside. Could very possibly be our best starter at the end of 2023. Nobody here wants to spend on high-end starting pitchers, this is about as good as it gets in terms of obtaining a solid MLB-ready starter. We have a glut of guys that can play 1st base. Arraez’s value will never be higher, and it’s already extremely limited with zero defense and power. His ability to stay healthy is questionable long-term. This allows them to keep the rotation fresh. Potentially run a 6 man rotation at times if needed, move talented guys to roles in the bullpen (guys like Winder and Ober if they can’t handle big workloads). Paddack and Maeda can be worked back in slowly. There’s also some pretty darn good depth for inevitable injuries. The more I think about it, the more I like it. I give the FO tons of credit for this. Ballsy move, but checks so many boxes. Might be my favorite move they’ve ever made.

Devon Smeltzer started 12 games, Cole Sands 3, Aaron Sanchez 3, Chi Chi Gonzalez 2. Only Ryan and Bundy threw more than 120 innings last year. Nobody threw more than 150. That’ll likely happen again. There are plenty of innings to go around.

Holy crap. I did not see this coming. I love watching Arraez. But, I don’t trust his body to hold up through a long career. Pretty good return.

I think the hype, and in turn the expectations, for some of these guys gets a little out of control. Its highly probable that Lewis isn’t going to be a superstar. He had a chance to be a good player. But, he’s not going hit consistently like we saw in his small sample in the majors last year. You can’t trade him because you’d be selling too low. Not because we’re treading a potential MVP caliber guy. If the right offer came along, I’d do it in a heartbeat. The guy hasn’t been able to stay in the field and doesn’t have a home at SS anymore. His bat plays less in the OF than at SS. If you can get a big pitcher in return…..

Killing them probably would’ve been kinder than what he did. If we need to get technical.

We desperately need a RH bat, and the ceiling for him is high enough that it’s ridiculous to just flat out say no. That’s clearly a biased take based on some personal dislike for the guy. I’d gladly take him and stash him at AAA and see if he gets on one of his ridiculous hot streaks. He’s a guy that, when locked in at the plate, can carry a team by hitting for power from the right side like nobody else we have on this roster (maybe Buxton and Correa). Maybe those days are gone, who knows, but it’s worth a flier on an incentive-laden minor league deal. At his absolute worst (2020 and 2021), he still OPS’s well above .750. Still OPS+ of 105, 112. Those are well above Gordon’s numbers, who people think is some sort of phenom. He’s never hit for average as low as Gallo did last year (still above .200 at his worst). He’s perfectly capable of slugging around .500. I get some of these guys have defensive value (Gordon’s is ridiculously overrated by most Twins fans, though, probably due to his slender stature giving the impression of a fast guy) - but writing him off as a useless player just reeks of bias. We carry worse players on this roster every year.

Do we really have a problem here? Are any of these guys, outside of Buxton when healthy (which isn’t enough), really that good? We’re likely not seeing the same Alex K. we saw before the wrist. Gallo looked useless at the plate last year. Gordon is nothing to write home about as a starter. Who knows what will happen with Larnach, last year was weird and he’s seen his struggles. Kepler hasn’t hit since 2019. The FO and management maybe have some tough decisions. But, it’s not because of a glut of talent. It’s more avoiding the land mine of cutting the wrong one loose.

Torres was a 4.1 WAR player last year. He can play SS. His career OPS+ is 114. Gordon’s is 101. Gordon spent 4-5 years in the minors battling to keep his OPS over .700. Torres has numerous years over .800, some over .900, and one over 1.000. Torres has been an All Star twice. He hit 38 home runs a couple years back. He’s registers OPS+ of 122, 128, 103, and 114 in 4 of the last 5 full seasons. Torres had a dWAR if 1.4 last year. Gordon has never posted a positive dWAR. Torres has never had a negative WPA season. Gordon’s career number is 0 and was a negative last year (his “breakout”). Gordon isn’t even on the same planet as Torres in terms of track record and potential. He’s a replacement level bench guy who is lucky to be in the league right now. If he weren’t a top 10 pick with his pedigree (dad and brother) he probably would’ve washed out into an independent league years ago. Nobody is giving anybody anything for Nick Gordon.

Nobody is taking Nick Gordon for Pablo Lopez straight up.

Hilarious, and not that far off from reality. Change the title to “ball guys” of TD, and add a couple paragraphs about them claiming Nick Gordon is the best OF on the team, and this is no longer fiction.

In terms of raw talent, he already is and it’s not even really close (unless I’m forgetting someone). Whether he can remain healthy enough, long enough, is the question. But, with one 5.5 WAR season with a .834 OPS, 140 OPS+, with a 1.1 dWAR, he’s already well on his way. Smalley had one season better than that with the Twins. Gagne, maybe one season better with the Twins. Guzman had one season on par with that in terms of WAR, but largely stunk in terms of WAA (career -6.4). He doesn’t have to do much other than show up and stand at shortstop the next few years.

The is how the Terminator began.