Beast

Hard to argue with that. That would be my choice also. I knew I’d see people in here calling Nick Gordon and his career defensive deficit and average bat (at best) the most underrated player. Despite 80% of fans clamoring to hand him a starting spot at a corner OF spot. He’s arguably the most overrated player at this point. This FO would squeeze water out of a stone if it was there be had with with their beefed up analytics department. After running the numbers, they were so confident in Gordon that they signed Gallo, traded for Taylor, and are keeping Kepler.

I’ve never understood the take that acquiring Gallo unequivocally means they need to move Kepler. And the reason for that is Trevor Larnach, et all. It made more sense when we still had Arraez on the roster. We don’t anymore. Trevor Larnach hasn’t done a whole to show he should be handed the keys to anything. His numbers stink. Gallo has positional flexibility. He can play all 3 OF spots and first base. The team has shown they like to rest guys and move them around. There’s also a DH slot to fill. There is a ridiculous track record of injuries on this club. The guy currently assumed to be slotted in at 1B might never hit worth a squat in his career because of chronic wrist issue. And, frankly, his overall numbers stink. They would get nothing in return for Kepler that exceeds his value to the team. They would essentially be giving him away to make room for Gordon and Larnach. The value of Kepler has gotten fairly underrated. It’s almost turned into hyperbole this off-season. He’s been between a 2-4 WAR player every year of his career. Gordon has a full seasons worth of plate appearances (over 600). He’s got exactly a 0.0% WPA, a 101 OPS+, a .711 OPS, 1.7 WAR and a negative overall dWAR. And people look at him like a prospect - he’s 2 years younger than Kepler at 27. Trevor Larnach has just under a full season with a -2.5 WPA, a 94 OPS+, a .687 OPS, a 1.9 WAR and a 0.7 dWAR. He’s 26. These aren’t young guys. They’re already exiting their physical prime. Maybe Kepler won’t be any better that. Who knows. But right now, even with is anemic offense, his OF defense makes him a more valuable player than both of these guys. He also has a longer track record of OPSing higher than both of these guys. He makes 6 million dollars - that’s peanuts. For context, Michael Taylor makes $4.5 to be a backup. I just don’t see the benefit out running Kepler out of town for a poor return right now. It just feels like a bad move.

There are some hideous numbers in that group for the older players (21+). Not sure some of those guys should even be on the list at this point. Schoebel is looking like another poorly executed reach with a high draft pick by this FO. Maybe I’m wrong, but there seems to be a pattern of them grabbing a guy well above the projection, and it turns out very poorly (Cavaco, Sabato, Schoebel, off the top of my head). I know, baseball drafts are a crap shoot, I get it. But holy crap have these guys struck out in the draft. Out of all the drafts they’ve been a part of, nobody drafted has made a major impact in the MLB (maybe Ober and Jax), and only 2 are on the current top 100 list (at the same position). Maybe I’m missing some significant ones. We’re not talking about a small sample size anymore. They’ve had, what, 6-7 drafts? And they’ve clearly targeted college level players who should reach the majors much quicker. They seem to have done well in other areas, and there are a few promising drafted prospects right now (Prielipp, Varland, Julien, Lee, Miller). So, things could turn quickly.

I’d put the Arraez trade above signing Vasquez. Maybe even #1. Various outlets analyzing the values exchanged in that trade say the Twins fleeced the Marlins. They got a quality young starter with All-Star upside, a top 100 prospect, and another promising throw-in for a guy that can’t hit for power, can’t play defense, can’t run, can’t get through a season healthy, and plays the least “premium” position in baseball where we have a massive surplus. Im also of the opinion that his hit tool (“average”) has been exaggerated. It’s not like the guy hits .340 like Gwynn and prime Mauer. He hit below .300 in 2021 and .317 in 2022. Thats very good, but people have somehow warped that into some sort of generational talent. I absolutely love that move from a baseball standpoint. I know many don’t agree, but that’s how I see it.

Larnach has a .370 slugging and .680 OPS in 430 ABs. Kirilloff - .398, .694 in 350. They have 2 WAR between the two of them in 800 ABs. We’ll find out how much that is due to injury, I guess. Im not sure Kirilloff will be the same. I don’t doubt he wouldve been a good hitter if not for the wrist. Im more optimistic about him. I’m not so sure about Larnach.

First, $11 million is pocket change in the MLB world. There is no risk in terms of money here whatsoever. Second, you’re focusing on batting average and walks. He’s got a career OPS around .800 and OPS+ around 110. Gordon and Kepler’s career numbers aren’t going to hit those marks. Gallo is so far beyond Gordon in terms of outfield defense, there’s no comparison. He’s also better than Kepler. If you want to compare careers, he’s a superior player to both of them even with his historically bad year last year. I’ll never understand how so many people here say they don’t want Gallo on the team, while simultaneously clamoring to hand the keys over to Nick Gordon who has almost no extended track record of success at any level of professional baseball. There’s a reason why the FO isn’t handing Gordon the keys to anything other than a bench role. He’s not that good.

I’m a fan of the move. If you’re going to be scared of any sort of long-term big money commitment to external free agents (like many fans here seem to be), you have to take fliers like this one if you want to compete. Especially if you’re going to burn your high draft picks with poor evaluations of guys like Sabato, Rooker, Gordon, Cavaco, etc. You can’t have it both ways. If it doesn’t work out, nothing is lost. He’s not blocking anybody. He’s not going to hold this team back from winning anything. If the team stinks with him, they would’ve stunk without him. But. There’s a slim chance he returns to form and helps the team win some games. He’s also immediately one of the better defenders on the team with position flexibility.

The prospect write-ups/updates are my favorite part about TD. No other outlet does it better. Man, that Cavaco pick just keeps looking worse. It’s not really a hindsight thing, either. I recall it being very questionable at the time. I know, it’s how the baseball draft works. But, looking back and seeing Corbin Carrol, Gunnar Henderson and others go after him is painful. It’s one thing if there’s somewhat of a consensus about a players draft slot (Nick Gordon, for example). But, when a lot of analysts wonder what the hell you’re doing and it turns out like this…you have to wonder what the hell they were doing. Overall their first round/compensatory draft track record leaves a lot to be desired. Especially if Royce Lewis can’t stay on the field.

I’d love to take a flier on this kid. Worse case, the Pohlads burn some pocket change. Best case is another hammer at the back end of the bullpen. This is the way to dredge out a high-end reliever of you don’t want to pay the big bucks for it. I don’t see how waiving the white flag on a guy like this and running out some AAAA schlub is a better option in any way (unless he’s a locker room cancer). If he gets hurt, you still get the schlub.

I’m not any more concerned about Fulmer than I am guys Henriquez, Megill, Pagan, Sands, even Lopez. Some of these metrics have to have some sort of predictive value. Is Fulmer’s slider still better than some of the other bums in the roster despite losing an inch? Do we care that Pagan or Megill’s pitches have some increment of more movement when we’ve seen time and time again they stink? Not saying I do or do not believe in Fulmer. But, it’s not like we have a full boat here. I’ll welcome anyone who has shown they can get hitters out in recent history.

I think we’re done. May pick up a highly discounted bullpen arm as we near spring training at most. I think Kepler is staying. The chances of us giving up what it would take to get Reynolds is 0%. Even if we were willing to come up with a package the Pirates would take, which I doubt, Reynolds isn’t asking out to get shipped off to an equally inept franchise in terms of playoff track record, and one that won’t give him the monster contract he’s likely looking for (hence the trade request). He wants to go win, and get his big payday instead of getting strung along in low ball arbitration on a loser. The chances of him coming before Correa was nearly 0%. After signing Correa, it’s just as likely we reanimate the corpse of Willie Mays to play LF.

He’s a good backup option to have for when Buxton goes on the IL. He’s still at minimum a quality late game defensive replacement for a guy like Gordon or Garlick. He’s still young and has more offensive upside than Taylor. Maybe even a solid trade piece for a bullpen arm. Theres still value there.

My preference would probably be Buxton into Correa 2nd. Just give the two best hitters in the team the most ABs. I could be sold on Polanco with Correa and Buxton following.

Not sure this is far from the truth. This guy was also likely, and very ironically, very upset about the Arraez trade.

Who else was supposed to hit in those 1-4 spots in the order? That roster has stunk since the end of 2019. Nick Gordon? Who, by the way, has the exact same career OPS+ as Kepler while being much worse defensively. But, people act as if he’s a rising star while simultaneously calling for Kepler to be traded or benched. You need to have a better player to replace him. We don’t have one that’s been able to play RF and stay on the field.

Since Arraez is a first baseman/DH here, I would argue he’s not really being replaced by someone like Julien. They’re not taking Arraez’s 500 PAs and handing them 1 for 1 to Julien. He might not see any of those ABs. He’s more being replaced by Kirilloff, Gallo, Miranda, and the plethora of other hitters that will get 1B/DH ABs. Hopefully there’s more ABs from Buxton sprinkled in there as well. I feel like that’s lost on people. It’s not an unknown commodity taking over. There’s a pretty good chance that the replacements above end up OPSing higher than Arraez would have.

Arraez didn’t really have long ABs. That’s an incorrect perception that’s been developed for one reason or another. Gleeman and Bonnes had some great stats to back this up on their podcast. On average, there are a number of Twins players that see more pitches. Arraez is nearly exactly league average in that department. I believe his average per AB or PA (don’t remember which) is exactly the same as Gilberto Celestino. I haven’t yet heard anyone lament the impact that Celestino in AAA will have on the lineup (they’ll see fewer pitches from the on deck circle). It’s funny how that perception is created. Guys like Sano and Gallo see a ton of pitches. But, people think they’re up there hacking at everything because of the K numbers. It’s actually the opposite. They are just often in 3-2 or 2-2 counts before swinging the bat. (Another nice bit of context/info from Gleeman/Geek). I’ve heard national guys saying this too. How guys like Jazz Chisholm will benefit greatly from seeing all these extra pitches with Arraez in front of them. Staring into the camera saying things are completely made up and false. Fascinating little case study in mis/dis information.

We need a RH bat. We could use more guys with his playoff experience. I wouldn’t hate it for those reasons. His overall playoff stats are rather pedestrian. Actually has a negative overall WPA in the playoffs. But, he’s had some good series and big moments. Also, can’t find a substitute for that experience. Winning experience. This roster is very immature in that regard (except Correa).

I don’t like that. He’s only good for so many innings a year. When he’s healthy he’s good. I’d rather they not waste them in AAA. None of these guys are really work horses in terms of innings. Some are coming off injury and aren’t going to be tossing 120 pitches over 7 2/3. We’re going to see a lot of 4-5 inning starts early in the year: Use someone as a swing man to come in and throw 3-4 innings. I’d rather turn it over to Ober or Maeda in the 5th than stringing together a couple guys like Pagan before Duran.

I see your point, but disagree that he’s our best hitter. The average is nice, sure. But, he had 20 more hits than Carlos Correa over the course of the season, and Correa misses time. When those extra hits are mostly singles with nobody on base, there’s not a ton of value added there. Correa hit like 13-14 more home runs, OPS’d .30 points higher, walked more, and was a full 10 points higher in OPS+. It’s not even close, frankly. A healthy Buxton (I know) and Kirilloff are right up there also. But, yes, I see your point and it’s valid. After hearing some analysis of Lopez by a few different people….it sounds like there’s some upside there. He’s under two years of control, and they threw in a top 100 prospect. You just can’t say know to that for an empty .315 batting average and bad knees.

The Twins would’ve been nuts to say no to this deal, IMO. They need to start replenishing the farm system. They added a top 100 prospect. They needed a starting pitcher. They added a cheap, rock solid middle of the rotation guy under team control, with some All Star caliber upside. Could very possibly be our best starter at the end of 2023. Nobody here wants to spend on high-end starting pitchers, this is about as good as it gets in terms of obtaining a solid MLB-ready starter. We have a glut of guys that can play 1st base. Arraez’s value will never be higher, and it’s already extremely limited with zero defense and power. His ability to stay healthy is questionable long-term. This allows them to keep the rotation fresh. Potentially run a 6 man rotation at times if needed, move talented guys to roles in the bullpen (guys like Winder and Ober if they can’t handle big workloads). Paddack and Maeda can be worked back in slowly. There’s also some pretty darn good depth for inevitable injuries. The more I think about it, the more I like it. I give the FO tons of credit for this. Ballsy move, but checks so many boxes. Might be my favorite move they’ve ever made.

Devon Smeltzer started 12 games, Cole Sands 3, Aaron Sanchez 3, Chi Chi Gonzalez 2. Only Ryan and Bundy threw more than 120 innings last year. Nobody threw more than 150. That’ll likely happen again. There are plenty of innings to go around.

Holy crap. I did not see this coming. I love watching Arraez. But, I don’t trust his body to hold up through a long career. Pretty good return.

We desperately need a RH bat, and the ceiling for him is high enough that it’s ridiculous to just flat out say no. That’s clearly a biased take based on some personal dislike for the guy. I’d gladly take him and stash him at AAA and see if he gets on one of his ridiculous hot streaks. He’s a guy that, when locked in at the plate, can carry a team by hitting for power from the right side like nobody else we have on this roster (maybe Buxton and Correa). Maybe those days are gone, who knows, but it’s worth a flier on an incentive-laden minor league deal. At his absolute worst (2020 and 2021), he still OPS’s well above .750. Still OPS+ of 105, 112. Those are well above Gordon’s numbers, who people think is some sort of phenom. He’s never hit for average as low as Gallo did last year (still above .200 at his worst). He’s perfectly capable of slugging around .500. I get some of these guys have defensive value (Gordon’s is ridiculously overrated by most Twins fans, though, probably due to his slender stature giving the impression of a fast guy) - but writing him off as a useless player just reeks of bias. We carry worse players on this roster every year.

Do we really have a problem here? Are any of these guys, outside of Buxton when healthy (which isn’t enough), really that good? We’re likely not seeing the same Alex K. we saw before the wrist. Gallo looked useless at the plate last year. Gordon is nothing to write home about as a starter. Who knows what will happen with Larnach, last year was weird and he’s seen his struggles. Kepler hasn’t hit since 2019. The FO and management maybe have some tough decisions. But, it’s not because of a glut of talent. It’s more avoiding the land mine of cutting the wrong one loose.