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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    “Suspect” or similar description of the Twins Left Handed hitting capabilities and how Kepler needs to help bail us out from that side of the plate, seems to be a misrepresentation. Kiriloff, if healthy, Polanco, Larnach, Gordon, Gallo………with Julien & Lee & Walner coming doesn’t suggest a void from left side………I do agree that Kepler could be a swing player in ‘22!! Lopez was disappointing & his history isn’t encouraging. Like Kepler, has talent, but only shown it in brief windows. Really, López has been relatively unimpressive for years other than ‘22 April - June. Minnesota beat him twice last year in July before trading for him. Good Stuff - hoping for better fastball command and better use of his head! Mahle has the pitches! I live in Cincinnati and the ballpark here being an excuse for giving up too many HR’s is an excuse. He gave up 3 dingers in his first game in Minneapolis. He gave up 2 in a row the other day in Spring Training. He’s terrible at staying ahead and pitching to contact to get guys out - throws too many pitches after ahead, trying to nibble. Walks guys - pitch count gets elevated early - gets complacent and grooves fastballs that leave the yard…….hope he gets coached up with the Twins!! Great upside!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Right on Santana - after their Closer got hurt at WBC Mets are looking for depth wherever they can find it - even Santana.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Lewis has had 2 ACL surgeries and is owed $750K at best for 3 years or so & then not much more (maybe $35-$45M total, best case) for 3 more years……..you don’t think Boras wouldn’t take his %, yesterday, on a $111 million deal??? That said, there’s no reason for the Twins to be what I think is irrational, and pay guys because of where they were drafted. Lewis has a dozen or so games in the Show with a probable bad knee going forward and no defined position on defense at this point. Lee has had great success, over 20 odd games in AA. Don’t even understand considering the conversation. I really like both of these guys and expect great things from both - big pieces of our team’s future!!! Writing checks for $100M plus prior to any MLB success and frankly, 2 years sooner than needed for “an early contract”, just doesn’t add up to good management. Both guys have to be starters at some position on the Big Team for a season to be considering long term deals. We just traded a guy with bad knees that played for 4 years and had a career BA of .314. One batting title. There were 11 other guys in the game that hit over .290 in ‘22. Do we think Royce Lewis is going to be markedly better than Arraez? Think about it….I get Lewis may not be damaged after his latest surgery but he certainly has the genes to suffer another injury. Also, Lewis has more power, more athleticism. Athleticism alone doesn’t put the ball in play at a .314 clip……..I know he hit .307 or whatever when up for a dozen games …….Arraez hit .365 until the end of July. Just saying we shouldn’t be quite so enamored with guys that are still all “potential based”. After this year we may be talking about how big of a star Miranda is or Nick Gordon or some pitcher. Can’t blow up our economic future flexibility by following the moves of a franchise like the D-Backs.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Don’t understand the concern? If Kiriloff was 100%, Miranda was going to play 25% of the starts there v. LH pitching. That will remain the same. Gallo came up as a 3rd baseman - has played 1B, not much & not for a few years - great athlete - 6’5”…….if Arraez made an impromptu everyday showing last year at 1B, there’s no reason to think that Gallo is going to be a deficiency at 1B.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Gloom & doom…… Buxton’s hurt - Kiriloff is done - Polanco’s hurt. Sure it could happen, not likely for all 3 though. My slant……. Gallo is going to play & we needed to get used to this the day after his signing. Whether it’s in LF or 1B has no bearing on his OPS+. He’s a starter 125 games plus. Kepler is a known as well - hoping for better results - pencil him in right 115 games plus w/o a deadline trade, that is unlikely! Correa SS - Solano 2B - Farmer 3B - Miranda 1B - Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Gallo LF - Jeffers C - Larnach LF v. LH pitching is not weak. Correa SS - Gallo 1B - Miranda 3B - Gordon CF - Larnach LF - Polanco 2B - Kepler RF - Vazquez C - Larnach DH v. RH pitching is not weak. Can’t take intended platoon players stats & generalize their weaknesses into the plan. We signed older guys for depth and to be able to play to everyone’s strengths. Julien is an option 45-60 days into the season if Kiriloff can’t play.
  6. JD-TWINS
    My opinion……Gallo was picked up for Power in the line-up or due to lack of, with proven players. His OF prowess was/is a bonus - it was a depth move, particularly due to his often discussed positional flexibility. Last year’s starting LF & next year’s starting LF is Nick Gordon, with Larnach trending. Using Gallo at 1B because that’s where he best fits in April/May from a depth standpoint is the best move. Guys can’t play, gotta make adjustments. He doesn’t weaken 1B at all defensively.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Clearly! Gallo at 1B v. RH pitching to start year Larnach - Gordon - Kepler v. RH pitching 40 games……..with Buxton at DH or resting….he starts 80 games v. RH pitching in CF Taylor in CF v. LH pitching Miranda at 1B v. LH pitching Solano at 2B v. LH pitching Farmer at 3B v. LH pitching Julien up in June if Kiriloff washes out.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Max will get a good long look in ‘23………My assumption is Gallo may start in RF when we’re up against LH pitching. Kepler gets opportunity to shine against RH pitching. Hoping he stays healthy so we get a clear look at what he can do. A bit of power would really help….somewhere around 20HR or at least 30 doubles. Gotta produce some runs playing RF.
  9. JD-TWINS
    B. Ober, in rotation on Opening Day!…..Maeda working 2-3 innings at a time from Pen for a couple months. Can stretch him into a starter by July if desired. Can’t use up Ober’s limited number of innings in St. Paul. Larnach - hoping for good things with health! Assuming he’s on 26 man to start with Kiriloff needing more time……Gallo to 1B. Been assuming Gallo will shift to 1B with Kiriloff coming slowly & Gordon - Larnach - Kepler in corner OF spots, but he doesn’t seem to be getting live reps there. When? Behind the scenes?
  10. JD-TWINS
    Not sure it matters but my assumption for Buxton is to DH when they are facing LH pitching…..clearly he needs to DH around 50 games & Taylor hits LH well so my thought was he’d be in CF for 25% of the starts - 40 games. Line-up v. LH pitcher: Taylor - CF Buxton - DH Correa - SS Miranda - 1B Farmer - 3B Gallo - RF Jeffers - C Solano - 2B Larnach - LF (maybe Garlick if rostered) No offensive superstars here but they have good splits v. LH pitching & should be effective v. LH arms
  11. JD-TWINS
    Buxton played 140 games in 2017……92 games last year is his 2nd highest total over a 7 year career. Tired of hearing how DHing & scheduled time off is wasteful & won’t/can’t help. It’s certainly time to try something different!! Having no plan & playing him & hoping for the best hasn’t worked 6 of 7 years. Agreed that we need runs to win. Taylor is above average v. LH pitching. That helps. Buxton sporadically hits for power and in clutch situations, so they need him around for more than 3-4 months. Gotta think that would help. Gallo is a reach on offense, agreed. Gotta make the best out of him being in the roster. Some LF - some RF - some 1B. Gordon is above average v. RH pitching. Gallo - Gordon - Kepler won’t be bad offensively v. RH pitching. Our pitching & defense won’t hurt us…….if guys stay healthy, we’ll score plenty of runs. Will strike out too much as well!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Maeda starting the year in relief is a favorite of mine for months. Can’t waste Ober’s good health & limited inning build-up in St Paul. Maeda can prove himself and build-up innings while working a couple innings at a time out of Pen. After we get to June can sort/predict who the 5th guy should be when we get into August dog days. Might have 2 candidates or we might to bring someone up from St Paul. You’re probably right with the staff as laid out……I think, based on eye test, that an improved Megill is better than an improved Pagan. Pagan is tough to swallow for everyone on the 26 man!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Buxton in CF 80 games……Taylor in CF 40 games v. LH pitching………Gordon in CF 40 games v. RH pitching. (120 games of excellence in CF & 40 games of best offense with average D with Gordon……….sandwiched between elite Gallo & Kepler!) Buxton sits 30 games as needed & is DH 50 games. Hoping for maintained health.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I’m agreed that Team Israel, even with a few recognizable pro names, is not too scary. I’m hoping DeLeon can add enough depth in St. Paul, so that they risk shortening up one of the starters for a Big Club reliever when needed (Balazovic or SWR)
  15. JD-TWINS
    Gallo’s worth a shot now that he’s on the roster….can’t reverse time. It sure seems Kiriloff is out through most of April at this point. Assuming v. RH pitching that Gallo is at 1B & Gordon is in LF. He probably sits most games v. LH pitching. Best case in my mind, if Kiriloff comes back, is Gallo gets spread around ………Kepler in RF 115 games ……Gallo 40 games in RF. Gordon 80 games in LF …….Gallo 40 games in LF. With 50 games at 1B assuming Kiriloff is relatively fragile. Larnach 40 games in LF………depending upon the health of Kiriloff - we may carry Garlick at some point & he bats against LH pitching & plays left. Gordon plays 40 games in CF v. RH pitching……Taylor plays 40 games in CF v. LH pitching …….Buxton at DH v. LH pitching & plays 80 games in CF. VS. RH starter Gallo in LF - Gordon in CF - Kepler in RF ………40 games, while Buxton rests or DH’s.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Great work - very interesting. 2006: Santana & Liriano (starting) together from May through mid-July was magical……my recollection was Liriano was 1-2 in the Pen & got in the rotation in May sometime. I think he may have won 10 straight before he got hurt…..(12-3 for the season?) tried coming back in the last week or two but didn’t have anything. They were the most dominant pair, for maybe 10 weeks that I recall, ever. Would rank ‘23 Staff, prior to any results, as FOURTH on your list. However, I’d say this staff in ‘23 could be as good as any with the balance they have. I saw an article in the Athletic showing all 5 of this year’s starters in the Top 71 in MLB. All 5 in the top 45% of all starters. None in the Top 40 but all reasonably good! And then there’s Ober in the wings. They could easily get 4 guys in double figure wins with a couple winning 15-18. They’ll have the D & run support to achieve this. I think this team wins 95 games with reasonable health from everyday guys.
  17. JD-TWINS
    If we get to 2nd round of playoffs ….and he’s offered an extension mid-year, I think Gray would love to return. All the BS last year about getting pulled too early from games is just a competitive guy wanting to get a couple more personal wins for his bargaining power. He just wants to be on a winner. Decent chance with him signing after the season. Lopez is under control next year…..if he’s doing OK, a mid-season extension for a couple more years at $21M per year would be good guaranteed money for a guy that’s had shoulder problems. Ryan is coming off his Rookie Year…..wouldn’t consider extending until ‘24 & then Team Friendly if guaranteeing him $$ 2 years early.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Live in Cincinnati & have seen Gray & Mahle a fair amount……regarding extensions, my comment would be, Gray gets guys out and Mahle looks good on the mound & on baseball card. Mahle has decent stuff & is 4-5 years younger than a relatively fragile Gray. However, the guy we really will want to extend is López……so Gray is most affordable & best value of the others at 2 years for $38M. Would really focus on López first!! If successful this year, any of the 3 are worth pursuing with differing expectations going forward. 36 in ‘24….Maeda - 130 inning guy at $13M 2yr 34 in ‘24….Gray - 155 inning guy at $19M 2yr 29 in ‘24….Mahle - 175 inning guy at $17M 3yr …………….. she ??, maybe 27 in ‘24….López 185 innings at $21M…….have next year already & extend 2 more years. Would be really good to have 2 of these 4 extended by July of ‘23!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Ober is too good to not have pitch regularly. He’s also too fragile to burn up healthy innings in St. Paul! Have been a proponent in these forums since November hoping Maeda would be the long guy in Pen with Ober as our 5th starter. When Ober goes down or tires in July or sooner……Maeda could stretch out in 3-4 weeks & should still be down at 60-70 innings pitched, Max. at that point. We could do 6 starters and have guys go deeper knowing they have an extra 1-2 days between starts. I prefer a 5th day piggyback where Maeda & Ober split games…….this would really keep an 8 man Pen fresh for the other 4 days! Starter goes 4-5 innings and 2nd guy finishes game. May need an out or two from Pen in the transition/middle innings - may need a one inning closer? However it works, generally it’s a break for the Pen. Also, it keeps our two most fragile starter’s innings down through the year!! (18-25 innings a month)
  20. JD-TWINS
    Kiriloff isn’t going to be ready in 15 days. Who’s the roster replacement? Larnach &/or Garlick depending upon amount of power shown over next 2 weeks. Gordon - Buxton - Kepler - Garlick/Larnach - Taylor Gallo at 1B - Farmer - Miranda - CC - Polanco - Solano Jeffers - Vázquez ……………. Polanco & Buxton seem to be just being conservative!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Sounds good! Need some LH power & either Larnach or Walner need to bring it….. I just saw Julien had a 1-2 day for Canada Sunday…….HR……….4 BB. Still don’t see him playing up this year unless Kiriloff is washed. Even then either he or Polanco needs to learn 1B on the fly. Don’t see it……he’s a tough fit with Lee & Lewis & Miranda all ahead of him as well as Farmer & Polanco & Solano.
  22. JD-TWINS
    I do know Julien isn’t getting called up at some point to give Polanco & Kiriloff rest…..not real since the number of roster spots is not elastic for us “to look at guys”. Raya coming up in August seems to be a real stretch! We signed four veterans & kept two other veterans coming off sub-par years. Gallo - Solano - Farmer - Taylor…….Polanco - Kepler not because we expected a handful of guys from the farm to displace them in July………we have veteran depth and that’s how we’re built to win this year. Platoon bats - defense - pitching! You don’t play 75 - 90 games & scrap everything because you’re curious how the young guys might do.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Over, over, over….. 88 wins minimum Lopez - 13 wins…….Ryan - 15 wins (starting against lesser competition) Whether CC hits .272 or .289 doesn’t matter, those totals are maybe a 5 hit difference over the summer. If Buxton gets 110 games in the batters box he’ll get 30 HR’s. Need to get him 50 games at DH, & hopefully 80 in CF.
  24. JD-TWINS
    He extends his fight leg and isn’t in optimal position to block balls nor to get to his feet & throw. Others in the game have the same approach. His time up & throwing & accuracy of the throw drive his (a catcher’s) ability to throw out runners. There’s no improving this stolen base stat by getting a relationship with the 2B or SS. The catcher throws to the 1B side of the bag as quickly as possible & whoever is supposed to be there needs to be there. Catchers platooning is & has been part of most team’s approach for decades. Nothing new here.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Agreed! I’m sure many of us felt like Martin was a real stretch for any roster time this year since he didn’t fair well in AA last year. I get the fall ball push but he was going back to AA this Spring to try & reach some higher level of consistency. I’m not so sure that if he doesn’t hurt his elbow & had been playing this spring that Julien is ahead of him at all at this point. Julien hit 2HRs in one game……one game. He’s borderline AA/AAA to start the year. Nice upside but green! Lee/Lewis have always been ahead of Martin so not sure how the injury plays into that at all……..your point, his injury’s impact on ‘23 roster is overblown. Good luck to him - hoping no surgery!
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