JD-TWINS

He’s a Top 10 offensive player at 25 or under…..have you seen him hit?

Agree generally. I don’t see Burnes being nearly as good a fit as Luzardo. Luzardo 3 years of control, minimum, left……Burnes FA after ‘24. I know many may think I’m nuts but I don’t trade to a same league competitor to make them better. The more I look at a Julien’s stats the more I think his mix of OBP & power is very difficult to replace. Polanco - Rodriguez - couple other guys for Luzardo would be a dream come true. Can’t trade Lewis!!……I really don’t think trading Julien makes sense either. Lee was untouchable to me last week & prior but now I think it depends upon the opportunity & the return.

Craziness! Royce Lewis is like A-Rod before PED’s. He hit 4 grand slams in 5 weeks as a rookie. 2 HR’s in his first playoff game. His offensive profile is a ceiling that’s open ended. Best Twin’s talent since Puckett at the plate….better power than Mauer………pretty similar to Morneau in the box, but more athletic. 135-140 games per year affected by Lewis v. 35 games per year with a starting pitcher. I get that Gilbert is durable and has good stuff and has tremendous value to nearly any franchise - he’s not that different than Ryan with actual results. The team pays pitchers to get positive outcomes - innings - wins - consistent competitiveness. Strikeouts & low ERA tend to lead to those good outcomes but the stats aren’t what the organization is chasing. At this point, Varland - Festa - SWR - Winder - Headrick will have to help get the Club to the deadline along with the #1-#4 guys. Maybe we can trade for a guy to add depth for the stretch at that point. If it’s my team I offload Polanco’s salary & spend it along with another $5M to sign Clevinger…….starter issue solved for next 2 years. Can still pursue a nice trade for an arm and if everyone performs we make a trade at the deadline to strengthen our position player portion of the roster.

Julien - Rodriguez - Headrick - Sands for Luzardo & Meyer might be a trade that would balance? Can’t see Miami trading a local hero & youthful, former Cy Young winner! I get he’s somewhat expensive for them but he has more trade value going into ‘25……after he’s done some off season workouts & thrown enough to give another team some confidence. After the past 3 months of considering trades, Julien’s offense (OBP with power) is too hard to let go of for nearly any upside. He could play 2B for the next 6 years or more! Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B - Lewis in LF or 1B as a mirror with Kirilloff in those 2 spots starting in ‘25, sounds really good! Team’s pitching can hold up, worst case, til the deadline in ‘24.

Everyone that pitches has better success against weaker line-ups, not just a Joe Ryan phenomena. Having a vertical movement pitch and a horizontal movement pitch and getting those honed……that’s what allows his fastball to be less hittable at a 50% usage rate. IMO, he just wasn’t getting his fastball up enough on certain days. Big difference between gut high & top of letters. He definitely changed the location after he came back from the leg injury and finished fairly strong. Am looking for good things - with health. He’s laid back externally but like most pros, he’s a real competitor and wants to improve.

General comment for all trade talks for an arm………I know this may be really “Old School” but I don’t like the thought of trading with Mariners (almost played in ‘23 playoffs & on the rise) or Toronto, the team we had to beat in the first round of ‘23 playoffs……and are very likely to face again at some point. To directly improve foes by filling their needs doesn’t seem wise. There are 15 teams in the NL to start with - Free Agency - again, maybe Old School but seems like a much safer path.

The reliever v. starter spending is difficult due to the number of games a key reliever can affect…….some really good or oft used relievers can have a hand in 55 games during the season. High value! I’m stuck on adding a serious addition to the Team’s Pen to really stabilize the back end. I don’t think it’s absolutely necessary but it could be a big positive. Thielbar - Stewart are truly health risks & could be out more than they’re in play - see 2023. Am targeting one guy, in trade, with a team that seems to be re-tooling, Milwaukee. Devin Williams makes $7.25M this year after his arbitration settlement. He set-up for Hader for 2-3 years and has been closer for them since Hader was traded. Excellent the entire time! He could set-up or close depending upon other’s rest/availability during regular season. In playoffs, it lines up as Varland - Paddack - Stewart - Williams - Duran…….potentially, in any and every game needed. This line-up allows Jax & Thielbar to fill any of these roles as needed. It also allows for starters to go anywhere from 3 plus innings to 7 innings based upon performance that day. Trading for Williams seems plausible. He’s controllable for 2 seasons, so an investment in the trade isn’t a terrible, “rental” for a year, deal. My assumption is payroll is currently around $118M - $120M? Accurate? With this in mind, Polanco is traded and there is $22-27M available to stay at $130-135M ceiling. $130M is a 15.5% reduction from ‘23 - that has to be a good number for the organization! $7.25M to Williams & $15M to Clevinger brings the total to $130-$132M. Continue to pursue a starter in trade & if it works, in July, the Team can trade either of the guys above or another guy that’s extra depth to fill an offensive hole. Maybe they can feel more free to trade a prospect like Festa or like with the added existing depth? Williams is a great complimentary piece to any bullpen and he’d make the Twin’s group elite.

Agree - things changed for him…….I’m leaning into your #3 & #4 above. He started attacking with the approach to just sting the ball & he got healthy, that can’t be underestimated.

At the time it was known across the Country in the media, & to anyone paying attention, that Ryan’s record at home was much better than his road record, hence the Ober start in Houston……..nobody thinks either of these guys is an ACE or that they are #1’s. However, their performances from ‘22 forward are pretty good & the fans should quit whining/pining for some savior because the current rotation is so poor or is in disarray. Could use more depth, that’s a given! These guys don’t suck or they wouldn’t be listed this high by guys that pay lots of attention to stats & results.

Agree, Ober can be good! Regardless of why the Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts (Pen blew it - lack of offense - lack of depth in start) …….. the Team needs to positively replace the Outcomes of his starts…….2 of the above were playoff starts. So, if a guy or two can start the 32 games Gray did in the regular season and the team goes 16-14 & all else stays the same, they win 89 games. To me, the Twins going 16-14 with another starter is not a big ask……..,gotta get the innings from someone, that’s the biggest challenge.

Agreed - it’s really about the outcome of the start. I realize one could be fortunate and have an ERA of 4.40 & win 14 games …….and that a 2.79 ERA gives the team a better chance. Not promoting mediocrity. Still, when discussing replacing guys, Gray & Maeda combined were 14-16 in ‘23. Maeda wasn’t sharp in relief in the playoffs. Gray was 1-1 with a pick off move to 2B that protected the one win, & he went 5 innings. That makes team 15-19 across all his starts or .441 win %. Do the readers/writers here expect Lopez - Ryan - Ober to regress or stay static or improve? IMO, Ober regresses just a bit because he’s been so good, Ryan improves with health & Lopez pitches similarly with a slightly better record. Point is, the outcomes for Maeda & Gray should be replaceable with Paddack & Varland. Could still use some starter depth help but not desperate times.

Who’s around in July & beyond? Top 5 guys, if they remain healthy, of Funderburk-Thielbar-Jax-Stewart-Duran, no big surprise……..with, ideally, Canterino - Alcala - Winder. Because of Options left & limitations there, Balazovic may get a shot initially. I don’t believe in Sands stuff in the Show. Winder had a 4.15 ERA & his fastball got hit at around .380………a 2 seam has to get his 95Mph fastball to some level of respectability. Alcala is all about maintaining health as is Canterino.

Martin & Larnach were #1 picks as well no free ride after you get to the Show - agreed.

I don’t care what draft pick Gordon was, that gets him nothing at this point, we agree…..just pointing out at one point he was considered a decent athlete - the root of my comment was that he can play CF, LF & 2B - just like Martin & since he’s out of options he’ll probably get carried along unless they trade him. Everyone on the initial 13 man has to hit……..particularly, Miranda - Martin - Gordon. Assuming Martin gets more seasoning at AAA. I did also agree with the “hit to prove yourself - find their true level” comment you made but I didn’t think Kirilloff was far from a good season in ‘23.

I saw a pitching list (link) here a couple days ago that was related to Starting Pitching Value for Fantasy leagues. Anyway, Lopez was 11th & Ryan & Ober were 30 & 31. I think Paddack was 82? Anyway, I don’t think we’re getting a pitcher in trade much better than our current #2/#3 guys. Luzardo was valued at 26th. While I think pursuing a trade for an arm makes sense, even through to the Deadline in July, it makes sense to sign a FA to help with effective depth soon. We could sign Clevinger and spend $14-$15M. We could then continue to pursue a trade & if successful we could trade at the deadline to fill offensive hole if needed. If Varland “gets pushed” into the Pen that would be a bonus! Pitching $$ can come from moving Polanco, which needs to happen anyway with the current roster and 2B capabilities from Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Martin - Castro …………..Lee/Lewis at some point. I don’t see a need for only one path to pitching depth.

Doubt he would sign for that, even though he’s sitting a year……..that’s areal reach for a club without knowing he can throw. Seems most of the re-hab deals are 2 years - maybe 3 years. $$ & timing don’t seem to fit Twins but maybe a team would offer that to him?

So do the other teams….

Miranda is the alternative guy at 1B & maybe 10-20 games at 3B. Don’t see the competition between him & Gordon as a few here have eluded to for the last roster spot. Miranda is currently the only RH alternative at 1B. 13 guys: 2 Catchers, RL- CC - EJ - AK on the dirt with Farmer & Miranda, MW - Castro/Buxton - MK ……..these 12 guys seem to be a lock unless they sign/trade for a 1B. Gordon/Larnach/Martin are trying to get the last roster spot. I don’t understand the NEED for Martin early, in CF? The assumption is that Castro can’t handle the position/opportunity but Martin probably can & deserves a shot………. In ‘23 Castro had a 106 OPS plus - he hit .257 as a switch hitter - a .340 OBP - had 32 XBH in 358 AB’s - his arm is fantastic - he stole 33 bases - he’s played LF - CF - 3B - 2B - SS in the Show. He’s physically stronger, and he has experience. He DOES the things that everyone hopes Martin may do. All this assumes Polanco is moved. Gordon was a #1 pick at SS so he’s athletic - started 43 games in CF in ‘22 - can play 2B if needed as he was the starter there in ‘22 when Polanco couldn’t play - he’s out of options. He needs to start the year in Spring Training hitting better but unless he’s traded, it seems to me he’s the depth guy & 13th roster position until Martin or Larnach force him off the roster. Once Martin shows some offensive consistency over a couple more months, he’s a real option!! He’s a real alternative to Gordon out of camp.

Currently in the high teens for Payroll? ($118M?) Move Polanco. $135M budget ceiling. There’s room for an arm!! Could add Clevinger & keep Polanco or trade later. Just because they sign a FA doesn’t mean they stop trying to trade for a controllable arm………can always trade later if there’s an unexpected glut!

Can’t have League low ERA in ‘23 for the rotation with 2 good pitchers! Ober & Ryan, to me, are middle of the pack #2’s - higher end #3’s. This is great, with Paddack being a solid #3. All 3 of these guys are in question because Minnesotan’s don’t like to beat their chest & more so, because of their potential for limited availability. When healthy, they stack up very well behind Pablo!! BTW, he’s #8. Also, was #8 on MLB’s Top 10 starters for 2024!! In ‘23 he was 23rd in baseball in ERA - threw 194 innings - 3rd in the game in K’s - #1 in xWOBA. That’s an ACE!

Indy & Louisville are, closer in one case & same as Columbus, in another. Plenty of fan base. From a Cinti. resident.

Some Broad Strokes that aren’t real accurate but understand your premise …….. 300,000/day is 109,000,000/year - that would be a really big problem. That aside. Don’t feel too bad for the Reds! I live in Cincinnati & have been here since ‘91 (from MN) ……….similar to St. Paul in the City but over 1.6million with surrounding suburbs. Dayton - Columbus - Indianapolis - Louisville - Lexington are all 100 miles or less from the Stadium……,that’s gotta total at least another 4.5 - 5 million potential bodies……they are the oldest franchise in the game and are extremely cheap & it shows in their attendance. Also, a very proud fan base that attend games in a very fickle nature. They were in playoff mix in September & had under 20,000 on a beautiful night……happens often. Reds paid Ken Griffey Jr!! Reds paid Joey Votto!! ………..it’s a choice. They can do it. Twins are paying CC $34M/year - can’t omit that just because it’s old news. I completely agree that keeping the payroll at $140M (10% reduction) is the bottom of where the team should be. If they move Polanco, they could sign Montgomery by next Friday at $26M/year. Fingers crossed!

No change. Effectiveness in a role is King! All relievers were starters at some point. Nobody is suggesting Hader, or even Jax, move back to the rotation. Guys have been swung back and forth between long relief & starter forever. Guys doing it now are Martinez from San Diego (now Reds) - Lorenzen from Philadelphia, etc etc. Twins aren’t desperate for innings from starters. Having a great closer and relying on that for 45-55 games is a big deal!! It’s like suggesting Royce Lewis should be shoved back into CF…….he’s played there before ……….there’s a need……..,Bad Idea!

Assuming he has an agent & there would be caveats - getting him for cheap isn’t going to happen in any case. Risk of injury & then zero upside is the concern, as you point out.

Gray & Maeda were 14-16 combined in ‘23 regular season. Gray had a decent start against Toronto in playoffs (picked a guy off at 2B to get through 5th & final inning) & was not good v. Houston! Maeda did not pitch well in playoffs. The team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. Obviously, I don’t hate Gray - he deserved better! However, the outcomes of those two guys were not that impressive at all. The, “we’re screwed without them”, comments that flow continually here are overstated. Would it have been less controversial to sign both? Probably. Is it poor judgement to think that Varland/Paddack can’t go .500 in 50 starts? IMO, I don’t think so.