JD-TWINS

Kirilloff hit .270, with 11 HR & had an OPS of .793 in 88 games………..Polanco hit .255, 14 HR & had an OPS of .789 in 80 games…….Kirilloff is 4 years younger & making $9M plus less than Polanco……both struggle with health……Polanco played 104 games in ‘22 & hit .235. By the end of July either Lee or Lewis will be playing 2B. If Julien can handle 1B occasionally & he DH’s some, that’s great. Polanco’s salary needs to be moved……either for prospects or with 2-3 guys for a pitcher, before he gets hurt, not at the deadline.

Don’t believe moving guys around as if it’s no big deal to play 1B to solve roster issues……seems fake. Anyway, if Polanco could handle 1B, which is a reasonable assumption, we need to then move Kepler. Gotta get $10M reduction in payroll for pitching help. Kirilloff - Castro - Wallner becomes the probable opening day OF……does that make sense with Polanco & Julien on the right side of the IF? To me, due to availability issues (108 games & 86 games respectively) over the past couple years, Polanco is the guy to move on from.

Don’t get the allure to Duvall? There are essentially zero AB’s at DH available outside of Buxton & Julien. Even if we trade Polanco, Lee will be up by end of June & Julien will be primary DH v. RH pitching. Kirilloff will play 1B 80% of the time. Wallner - Castro/Buxton - Kepler have the OF reps with Gordon/Martin/Larnach in the wings.

He was 4th in League on defensive metrics, per other sources here in TD. I agree, moving him would be an over reaction and a mistake. What happens if Jeffers breaks a finger……we then have 2 unproven guys over an indefinite amount of time…….scary!!

Marlins need a catcher & veteran leadership. Throw in Gordon to help with their CF & back-up 2B issues & maybe Headrick & a prospect. We shed some salary but give Marlins help in more than one spot. Could get a reasonable arm if the “prospect” is good enough. They would be interested in Rodriguez……..we’d then need a real pitcher! Really tough to move 2 years of blah offense at that price. Maybe we trade him and send $7M along with him to spread over his last 2 years?

Castro played in 124 games - 358 AB’s - hit .257 & had a 106 OPS plus with 33 steals……..2.6 WAR and played about 65-70% of the time. I agree that trading Kepler isn’t bright because of lack of proven options in the Corner spots. I do not have a problem with us starting Willi Castro as often as needed in CF! Have Buxton/Gordon/Martin theoretically as depth, with Castro being the lead. Kepler plays until he doesn’t perform up to the deadline. If he’s playing well we’re set - if not, we give someone performing in St Paul a shot. Other option is to get somebody other than Kirilloff at 1B & move him to LF - Wallner to right.

In “win now” mode & there’s no suitable depth behind him this season. Can’t trade Kepler - must trade Polanco………this frees up $$ for pitching. If he’s just OK this season and somebody is pushing for a OF spot from St Paul, we can move Kepler at the deadline. FA pitching is as affordable as many other trade options. Lugo - Maeda - others are available in the $11-$13M range per year.

It IS low - lack of availability over past 2 years - dwindling BA as well. Best of a mediocre situation is trading him with 2-3 other guys for an arm or straight up for prospect. Cannot carry his salary!

So - I’d try to do all I could to trade for Devin Williams - is he good enough? They want to rebuild and get control pieces - shed salary. 2 yrs of control & a current salary of $6.2M……pretty reliable & affordable & 2 years. Rodriguez - Gordon - Festa - Miranda ……2 solid prospects, a potential inexpensive solution at 2B, & Miranda for some throw in potential upside, to fill in for loss of Telez. Varland back into rotation. A reasonably priced FA to add depth. Not trying to sign deGrom or Scherzer types……Lugo for 2 years $22-$25M or Maeda for similar amount or Severino for a year with big upside. If Kepler & Polanco are such low value dogs why did the organization pick up their options? So, I get Kepler seems to have found himself the last 3.5 months of ‘23 & was brutal prior, going back through ‘20……Polanco played 108 & 86 games respectively the last 2 years - hitting is diminishing no matter what people say her in the forum. That said, they have some value…..I trade Polanco with other’s, potentially for an arm & to reduce salary ……worst case him alone for prospect.

Trade for Devin Williams - 2 years of solid bullpen!!! ……..$6.2M/yr. After trading Polanco, take the $$ available & sign a FA pitcher for $12-$13M. (Maeda - Lugo - Severino) $122M payroll now after arbitration tenders ………..,,less Polanco @ &10.5mm - then add a FA & Williams and we cap payroll at $130M.

Twins can’t trade for any infielders other than at 1B - & that’s a stretch…………pitching makes sense, but I can’t see stabilizing a potential playoff foe with Polanco & Kepler. Pitching FA’s are available, ability to trade for excellent reliever for less assets is best approach!

Why not sign a known character guy with similar floor and ceiling - Kenta Maeda. This allows for trades for prospects or lumping a group together to get someone of value.

IMO, Goldschmidt, like most, wants to be part of a winner!!! While I’m not a huge proponent to spend on anything other than pitching, I see the value in a trade for Goldy. He’s a tough sign with the current DH logjam of Buxton/Julien. However, with his addition, we can figure out how to make our current arm options work out! Miranda - Festa - Gordon - Winder - Headrick for Goldschmidt. The cards are signing Lance Lynn & Kyle Gibson so they need some controllable pitching with upside & this solves those issues. V. RH pitching: Julien at 2B - Lewis at 3B - Kirilloff at DH - Kepler in RF - Goldschmidt at 1B - Wallner in LF - CC at SS - Jeffers at C - Castro in CF V. LH pitching: Castro in LF - Buxton at DH - Lewis at 3B - Goldschmidt at 1B - Jeffers at C - Farmer at 2B - CC at SS - Kepler in RF - Martin in CF Add Vazquez & these 2 line-ups & you have the 13 man roster for bats. Problem is, there’s no spending on pitching! I prefer no action on Goldy & focus on a FA starter arm ($11-$13M) & trade for a reliever for less prospect capital………Devin Williams!

I don’t like making a foe stronger - there are other FA pitchers out there w/o giving Seattle guys to plug their holes. If we’re a virtual lock to win our Division we need to consider who we may need to get through to advance. I’d pursue other options but if we can move Polanco’s salary, along with depth for Seattle, in Gordon, plus a prospect like Rodriguez, all for a young starter, we need to consider. I’d trade for a solid reliever (Devin Williams) & sign a FA pitcher…….move Varland to depth 5th starter position. Then trade Polanco for prospects or as part of a package to get Williams.

I get it and the assumption from management and/or fans would be that he needs a lot more than 100 plus AB’s to sort out pitching at the MLB level. The thought was contrasting him to Julien, who most often would sit v. LH pitching. Now, he too may benefit by seeing more reps v. lefties. Currently though, if he’s sitting against LH & plays somewhat limited defense, long-term, Lee looks advantageous to many.

Agreed on the “peak value” assumption being awfully misguided. Nothing but praise from guys doing the games in playoffs - there’s something tangible there! His relative awkwardness on defense v. a guy playing solid shortstop, solid defender - switch hitter (no platoon), is a big part of the critique I think. You are right - he had a very good 1/2 season in the Show! I have a hard time seeing where he plays for Twins very far forward with us being stuck with Buxton at DH - realistically, he’s there for 5 years. The miraculous CF comeback is pretty slim IMO. He has never been healthy - DHing after surgery may change that, to Julien’s detriment.

I live in Cincinnati & when they were moving Mahle & Castillo I was preaching to focus on Castillo at whatever cost…….he’s electric! Mahle was/is mentally soft, continually pitching away from contact, too many pitches & getting in trouble - then a HR. Fortunately, we can sign a 6’5” durable guy with a great track record for the same $$ - Jordan Montgomery for 5 years & $115. Not as exciting to watch as Castillo but he gets guys out & he’s durable. ($20M x 2 & $25M x 3)

With arbitration done I’ve seen we are at $120-$122M total salary. We need to move Polanco and that gets us to $111M. It seems to me I’ve seen a ceiling on payroll of $140M…. repeatedly, for what it’s worth. $29M is a decent top end number to spend. I’d focus strictly on pitching as getting marginal hitters “that have had decent years in the past, prior to last year” is a big risk & of not much value with 2-3 young guy’s potentially ready at some point this summer. FA - J. Montgomery for 5 years at escalating salary. $21M x 2 yrs & $26M x 3 yrs. IMO, we could move Varland to the Pen & stop there at $132M this year. This would be great! In addition in trade, we could really get good & make a serious run by adding Devin Williams for $6.2M…….package Miranda - Gordon (or Polanco if they like) - Festa & maybe Rodriguez? The trade package isn’t terribly important as we need to give up something to get a true top line reliever! $138-$139M total.

I keep hammering 2 years of control for Devin Williams……..much more value in a trade with the 2nd year & more affordable once he’s on our payroll…….he brings enough to the Staff to enable Varland to start & still maintain an excellent Pen………..$6.2M We move Polanco’s salary to Brewers & let them trade him for prospects as they rebuild if they like ………..package him with 2-3 other guys …….Gordon as an inexpensive flexible guy that can play a bunch of 2B if needed with some upside …….Miranda, if they like - they’re looking for a 1B/DH………..Festa & another prospect as needed. Eliminating Polanco’s salary allows for some spending. $112M + Williams is $118M…….. Maeda or Severino or Seth Lugo all in the $11-12.5M range. Or, we could max out in the $143-$144M range & sign Montgomery for $24-$26M with an escalating salary from $20M to $22M to $26M x 3 years. Maeda or Severino would be acceptable. D. Williams would be great! Montgomery would be fantastic!!…Varland to Pen How about Williams & Montgomery….can’t imagine. It’s realistic…..we keep Kepler & Farmer and still only spend $138-$142M this year and next year we clear Kepler & Farmer with youth & can afford Lopez bump of $16M in ‘25. Salary is “expected” to increase 5-10% per year per many experts here. This is an 8% reduction in payroll and we can essentially maintain it going forward in ‘25! We’re getting a TV deal somewhere this year - the Major League, Division Champs will be televised - there will be some reasonable level of $$$ to the franchise for TV/stream.

Don’t see Mariners moving Gilbert - particularly to a team in same League at a similar level of post-season capabilities. Manoa seems like a head case with a lot of risk …..”didn’t report after being sent down” NOT cool! His ERA had nearly tripled, had to go down to work on some things. Keller makes some sense - I’d try to find an alternative to Wallner as main trade piece Blackburn isn’t worth pursuing Burnes is too much player capital for a one year rental However, we use similar trade pieces to Milwaukee and get back Devin Williams for two years at just over $6M/year. Move Varland to rotation. Sign Seth Lugo for 2,years at $25M total. Rotation is stellar & Pen is better!! Staff is solid and we trade Polanco to get his $10.5M freed up and the pitching adds are $18. Low $130’s Million for total spend for ‘24! Festa - Miranda - Gordon - E. Rodriguez

Who is the clear cut team aligned with kids from Mississippi?? I don’t like the risk but really don’t like the zero contribution in ‘24!

Sorely lacking …. “….dynamic multi position player….” sounds to me the exact definition of Wiili Castro in ‘23 - not sure what Mr. Fangraphs was watching??

I don’t get the predicting of guys stats to change for the better, or for the worse depending upon what we want to happen. We can hope they go one way or the other but have no idea & neither do they. You could have said the same thing about Kepler and his return to form at beginning of ‘21 & again at beginning of ‘22…….nobody thought fans would rally around him now, at the end of May ‘23. Nobody knows. I know Alonso hit .217 & struck out over 150 times - the impression I have is we already tied for the league lead in HR……& the league lead for K’s. Nobody’s paying part of his salary to take him! We can’t sign him at a minimum of $25M going forward. He’s a lower value with a one year stint being the ceiling. Moot point to justify IMO. I’d trade Polanco to free up his $10.5M & focus those $$ on pitching.

Last year was rough to watch - one feels for the guy……,but if you drop his first year breaking in at age 21, and the shortened Covid year of ‘20, & include his 140 game season ……..it’s 7 years of averaging 83 games per year. Last year or the last two years haven’t been the problem - it’s his entire career. His injuries are routine and doubtful they can be solved.

I might slide Carew & Oliva in there as franchise competition but he’s at a vibe I haven’t had since Morneau was healthy!