LA Vikes Fan

I'm unhappy that we didn't ay the freight to get Correa and happy that we didn't really compete for Rodon (too injury prone). But please, let's stop complaining about Urshela. Nice guy, decent player, but a classic starter on a second division team who is a UTL/trade bait on a good team kind of guy. His defense is good as long as the ball is hit to him or a step or two either way. No range. That's why the Yankees moved him off SS, and then realized that his bat isn't good enough bat to augment his glove at an offense first position once MLB got rid of the juiced ball. He's not on the Yankees any more because he wasn't good enough for a team that expected to contend. Perfect for the Angels who won't really contend but don't want to rebuild. He'll help them get as high as 80-82 wins this year. Whopee! And let's not forget he's a FA in 2024. We traded Urshela to create room for a player that has a much higher offensive ceiling at 3B, while leaving 1B open for the reigning AL batting champ and/or Kirilloff who also has a much higher ceiling. Yes, both young players have a lower floor. Will this work? I say more likely yes than no but none of us know. These are the kind of moves the Twins have to make and risks they have to take to have a chance to get better. A team of Urshelas might win 80-85 games but it won't compete for anything else. This might work, it might not, but at least it's an attempt to get better.

Kepler and/or Maeda is not going to get us a good SP, you're right. They might get us some decent prospects, particularly Kepler. I'm in the camp of trading Kepler for prospects but not packaging him with Arraez to get a decent but not great SP. I think we need Arraez' bat. This lineup is at least 2 bats short as it is unless the young guys step up.

I'm actually very OK with this approach with a couple of tweaks. I wouldn't trade Gray; I'd try to re-sign him for 2-3 more years. Given the injury issues in the projected starting 5 there will be at least 20-25 starts available for Varland, Winder and SWR to cover for guys on the IL, probably more. I would add a RH hitting 1B/LF/DH type - either Trey Mancini or Wil Myers seems to fit that bill. I'm assuming Kepler will be traded for a solid BP arm or prospects, so leaves open ABs for Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, and Gordon (also as the backup SS/2B/CF). Use this year as more "competitive rebuild". 75-85 win team depending on health and whether the young guys step forward or fall back as a group. 2024 is the competitive window year.

Sign Swanson. Then pivot to signing some hitters and trying to trade for a pitching upgrade. For hitters there's Benintendi, Profar, Wil Myers, Trey Mancini, and Michael Conforto. Sign two to play LF/DH/1B. My picks are Two of Profar, Mancini and Myers. Trade for a starter if you can do it without giving up Arraez. Otherwise, roll with what you got.

And vice versa. Both have said that they want to play for a consistent contender. That is not the Twins as presently configured. That could be the Twins with Correa, Vazquez, PLUS a strong SP and some BP help. My guess is that both are waiting to see what else the club does before seriously considering the Twins as their destination. Let's face it, they both have time to wait. Then we can get the issue of that 4th year for Vazquez or 10th for Correa.

Let me change he discussion a little Does a team with Max Kepler starting every day contend for a title? Not unless he REALLY improves at the plate, and definitely not if he's hitting in the top 6 in the order. Do the Twins chances to contend improve if he's traded and Wallner, Larnach or Gordon play RF every day? Hard to know since we don't know what we're getting back in a trade or whether any of the other 3 will be an improvement. Here's what we do know. The Twins are not good enough to contend with the current roster, even if we re-sign Correa. We need to look at every avenue to improve, including trading a vet like Kepler as part of package to get a return to shore up the pitching staff or catching. A trade also has the ancillary value of giving another guy who might turn out to be better a place to play. That's why I say shop Kepler and if you can improve the team by shoring up a weak point absolutely make the trade. No need to dump him just to create a spot; but definitely trade him if can get pitching or catching in return.

Agree on Bassitt but the word is he wants 4 years and won't sign for 3. He's 34 years old. Question to all - Would you give him the same or a slightly better deal than Tijuan Walker who got 4 years, 72M? Maybe 4 years, 75-80m? Answer assuming that a 3 year deal is not possible, that some team will give him 4. I would give him the 4th year.

I'm fine with trading Kepler for a decent return, and I don't think that's going to be an MLB player. A good fielding below average to poor hitting corner OF just isn't worth that much. I don't think we can get a solid return unless we (1) package him with a bona fide pitching prospect like SWR, Raya or Canterino, or (2) we trade him and a lesser prospect for a strong prospect from a team that needs a CF, not a RF. Logical team - the Dodgers. They need a CF but don't have to play him there every day since they have Chris Taylor and Trayce Thompson (both RH hitters) who can play CF. They are trying to keep the payroll down a little to reset for luxury tax purposes and they may be on the hook for the 60 million left on Trevor Bauer's contract. He will not pitch another inning for LA. The word in the LA media is that they aren't fishing in the high end FA pond this year. Do the Dodgers have a minor league Catcher or Pitcher who isn't the very top end but has real potential? I looked at their 40 man and the pitching names that jumped out are Ryan Pepiot as a starter and Justin Bruihl or Caleb Ferguson, both LH relievers. Pepiot would require a big payout - Kepler and probably 2 top 20 prospects - but the relievers might be had for Kepler and something lower level. They also have a A+ ball catching prospect named Diego Cartaya that has good stats and is only 21 that they felt the need to protect. Anybody know anything else about their org that could help identify a target? Max's ability to play CF and his very reasonable salary might appeal to LA.

Hilarious. One of my all time favorites. Well Said. Rocco definitely has the urban lumberjack look.

Agreed. Part of Correa's timing may have to do with him watching what else the Twins do in the offseason. He's going to get paid wherever he goes. He may like the Twins, but why go back to a 78 win team that won 73 the year before unless you think they've made themselves better? I think a part of what's keeping things slow is Correa waiting to see what else the team does. They've made room at 3B for his protégé Miranda. Can they sign a Rodon or trade for a Lopez type? Is there another Catcher or some relief help on the way? Correa will be signing a 7-10 year deal. Even with opt outs, he's probably committed to a team for at least the next 3-4 years. The next 3-4 years are his prime years as a player. He's going to want to know that he's going to a team that will be a contender more often than not. If I'm him, I would wait to see what the Twins do before deciding even if I'm interested. If the Twins can't wait and pivot to Bogaerts, so be it. Better than signing a long term deal with a team that doesn't put the assets around him to contend and playing out multiple 70-80 win seasons. I think the better strategy is for the Twins to sign or trade for that needed Starting Pitcher first as part of convincing Correa or Bogaerts to seriously consider coming to Minnesota.

I agree and I think the trade was a good gamble. There are no guarantees in trades and what we gave up was never going to be enough to get someone without risk. To me, this is the kind of thing that mid-market teams do to try to improve. I supported the trade then and I still support it now.

I like the contract structure and couldn't agree more on the intent - this would have to be a stepping stone as PART of team building, not the end all and be all of that effort. The Twins still badly need a LH catcher, a quality starter, and a RH OF. To pull all of this off, we probably had to trade Urshela's salary, probably need to say goodbye to Kepler and maybe Polanco (hope not on Polanco), and may need to trade Farmer if we can sign Correa although I think Farmer is the perfect utility infielder for this team. Even at $160 million payroll the only way this works is to have a team of star(s) and Young guys who are still cost controlled. Sign Correa to this kind of a deal, sign Rodon or Bassitt, sign Hanigar, sign Navaez, and find a reliever. This probably gets you to about $165m and should give us a competitive team in the make the playoffs and make some noise sense. BTW, I do think the opt outs make sense and I think they are necessary to entice a guy like Correa. He can get 275-325m from 4 or 5 different teams. He'll go where he thinks he can be well paid AND win. The opt outs give him security and put pressure on the Twins to stay competitive so he'll stick around. Good structure.

True that and it points out an issue that the Twins have to deal with. Who is that workhorse? 150 innings a year is the best we can realistically hope for from Sonny Gray and we will probably get less. Same is true for a Maeda coming off injury, Ober coming off a shortened season due to injury, Mahle coming off shoulder issues, and Winder's track record suggests he won't last more than 125 if he's a starter. That leaves Joe Ryan who I think can give us 160-175 innings in the projected starting 5. So maybe we don't "need" a workhorse and maybe baseball has gotten away from that model. It would be great to have one but most teams don't. So what do you do? You fill the AAA rotation with guys who can start when the inevitable need arises. We actually have some depth with Varland, SWR, and even Dobnak (remember him?) but not enough. Not enough; we need more.

I agree. That would be 2 years (2023 and 2024) at around $32m. I can see a deal at 3 years, $36-$40m kicking in at 2023.

I'll add to the chorus - Haniger, Bell or Nimmo are the best options. Nimmo seems likely to stay with the Mets and Haniger with Seattle. I do kind of like Josh Bell. He's a switch hitter, and can play some decent 1B. He is streaky and more of a doubles power type than a HR hitter. At 3 years, $45m he should fit the budget without impacting the return of Correa.

My bad, I missed that. Seems like a light package for Lopez. Having said that, I would make the deal if Miami was interested. Maybe trade out Sands for Varland (baseball trade values has them close with Sands slightly more valuable). Or, if we need to, substitute Winder (much more valuable) and get Miami to throw in a catching prospect? I like Miranda and think he will be an above average but not All Star caliber hitter for the next 10 years. He also plays a position that could be manned by Lewis or Lee in the next year or two. He is exactly the kind of guy we will need to trade to get a Lopez level starter. It's worth it to me.

I'm right there with you and I think you have named the two guys to go after - Fullmer and Rogers. We "should" be able to get both for $12m or less. That leaves enough for Correa and a catcher like Navaez. Trade Kepler for prospects. IF you can get Chris Bassitt, also trade Urshela for prospects and turn 3B over to Miranda, leaving 1B for Arraez and Kirilloff. Now you have your Basitt money. All that leaves in my mind is how to get a RH OF/1B/DH to put in the middle of the lineup. That would then require either raising the payroll (nice thought) or trading prospects (probably at least one pitcher) for that bat. Both are eminently doable. I like Josh Bell or Trey Mancini for the RH hitter role.

I like these ideas. None of these 3 are likely to be lights out back end guys but each could provide some critical mid level depth. I would like to see them re-sign Fullmer for 2 years like you have it, and would actually give Rogers a little more if necessary, maybe 1/$7 with an option at 1/$9. He is left handed and breathing with some track record so he may be popular. May is a bigger risk so I would only sign him to the kind of incentive based deal that you mention.

Interesting. What happened to Miranda? Back at AAA?

Hey, I'm with you on that. Here's a thought, sign Vasquez - 3 years 27m (9 per), Bogaerts - 7 years 196m (28 per), Chri1sBassitt - 4 years 72m (18 per).

You're right about that. My bad. I made the change to Taylor, not Trevor. hey, tomato, tomato...

This is a tough exercise. There just isn't any way to adequately fill all of our needs at SS, SP, RP, C, OF and stay within a 140m budget. So I didn't. I'm a little over with a 2 players who could be dropped to get to $140m. Here's what I did: SS - Sadly said goodbye to Correa and instead signed Xander Bogaerts to a 7 year, $196m deal - $28m a year. SP - Got priced out on Rodon and signed Chris Bassitt instead to a 4 year, $72M deal - $18m a year. Would have him #1 and move Gray and Mahle down. BP- Moved Maeda to the BP but kept his $9m assumed cost, could be lower given his contract. See the Twins re-signing him to a 3 year deal with some extra money to convince him to go to the BP full time. Re-signed Fullmer for $3,m. Added back our old friend Taylor Rogers at $7m on a 3 year, $21m deal. Both Maeda and Rogers may come in cheaper than where I have them. C- Got priced out of Vasquez, signed Navaez for 2 years, $12m. Would rather have Vasquez if he could be had for 6-7m instead of the 8.5-10m I think he'll get. Trades - Had to make payroll room so I traded Urshela and Kepler for prospects. Moved Miranda to 3B, with Kiriloff/Larnach/Gordon to RF/LF, Except.... OF/DH - Signed Trey Mancini to a 2 year $20m deal to be a LF/DH. Would love that player to be Josh Bell as a 1B/DH but he's probably too expensive. Also brought up Martin as a UTL but that could be a number of different guys. Just don't want it to be Garlick again. Mancini is the guy I could lose to get down to a $140m budget. I think we need a RH hitting power guy to hit 4th or 5th so really want to keep one of them. Would prefer to lose Rogers and have Sands or Henriquez fill that spot in the bullpen or sign a deal with Maeda to lower his 2023 cost. ? Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Mranda ($0.70M) SS: Xander Bogearts ($28.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Trey Mancini ($10.00M) 4th OF: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.70M) Backup ? Omar Navaez ($6.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Chris Bassitt ($18.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Baily Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Michael Fullmer ($3.00M) RP: Taylor Rogers ($7.00M) Payroll is 1.20% over budget

Here's a good 4th reason - Jeffers is the best we got and there isn't anyone else out there who isn't going to cost a lot in prospects. Sean Murphy? I'd love to get him but the cost starts with Lewis or Lee PLUS a quality pitching prospect. Contreras? It's him OR Correa, not both, I'd rather have Correa. Here's my thought - Christian Vasquez. Great concept but probably 8-9m a year for multiple years. Tough for a 32 year old catcher. Might even be more and will he leave Houston after winning the World Series for a team that won 78 games a year ago? If he would, we could fit him in AND get Correa and maybe Rodon, but only if if we traded Kepler and Urshela for prospects to free up salary room. Maybe that works because we have Miranda and Larnach/Kirilloff/Gordon to play their spots. To me, there are 2 good choices. Choice 1 - get Vasquez, move Urshela to 3B and Larnach or Gordon to RF, trade Kepler and Urshela, sign Corrrea and Rodon. Choice 2 - go with Jeffers, sign one of the usual suspects (Navaez, Barnhardt, Leon), trade Urshela and/or Kepler, sign Correa and Rodon, sign a quality relief pitcher (Robertson?). Likely Twins move - sign Navaez, keep Kepler and Urshela, sign Elvis Andrus to play SS, sign Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, Michael Wacha, or Tijuan Walker as a SP, roll with the bullpen as is.

$75m is definitely enough to get somebody's attention.

I agree that the current payroll can handle one large contract fairly comfortably. The real question is to me, is that one contract for a pitcher, a shortstop, or can we afford both? I think a pitcher gives you more value but higher injury risk, and the drop off from the top pitchers to the next level is pretty steep. I think we can afford both as long as one of the contracts is in the $35 million year range and one of the $20 million a year range or some combination that adds up to $50 – $55 million. Dump Kepler and that goes up $5m-$8.5m. Maybe Correa and Bassitt? Bogearts and Rodon? Correa and Rodon with no Kepler and no Urshela? I vote for signing Correa long term now, trading Kepler for prospects to free up another $8.5m, keeping Urshela, and spending the other $20-$30m million on a combination of Bassitt, David Robertson or Corey Kenebel, and Christian Vasquez. That may be more than we've got to spend but a guy can dream right?. Will be fascinating to see.