LA Vikes Fan

Well said. Prospects always look great until they don't. It's generally fool's gold to plan for a contending team based on guys who haven't established themselves at the MLB level. The most interesting statement was the Falvey quote on Kirilloff. He's right. This is it; if the last surgery doesn't work Kirilloff is probably done as a pro baseball player. As a fan and just a human being, I really hope that he can achieve his dream and not get sidelined by a physical problem. I think we'll know by mid-season.

Julien looks good but let's pump the brakes a little here, guys. He performed well in AA and the AFL last year. That's a long way from performing in MLB or even AAA. Farmer and Solano have performed competently or better for multiple years in MLB. Both Farmer and Solano are much more likely to help the 2023 Twins; Julien may help the 2024 Twins and is much more likely to help the 2025 Twins. Julien should spend most of this year in AAA and continue to progress, and he might get a shot this year if we have injury issues and/or guys aren't effective. He also needs to find a defensive position he can play at an MLB level. He needs to show us that he can be more than just a bat first 1B/DH. We are exactly where we want to be with him. This Twins team is better and the players and FO think they have the horses to contend for the division title and maybe even a solid playoff run. A team like that should have solid veteran backup players like Farmer and Solano because they can help get those marginal 4-8 wins that will make a huge difference. A young guy like Julien might help, he might not, and you have to give him ABs that might help win or lose a game to find out. Contending teams can't give those ABs away. If you think you can contend to put the Farmers and Solanos of the world on the bench. If you think is a rebuilding or developmental year (think KC or Detroit) you give those ABs to the Juliens of the world. This team thinks it can contend. I'm cautiously optimistic that's right. I think signing Farmer and Solano was the right move and will help us contend. If we can't, we'll know by July and we can trade those guys for A ball lottery tickets and then give Julien, Lee, Martin, SWR, Varland, etc. their shot. No need to force anything now for any of those guys and I think all of them except for Lewis are for the 2024 or 2025 MLB club. .

Right on, as they used to say. I know it's exciting to think about the young guys coming up. Th decision time on those gusy isn't now; it's in July.

Absolutely right, except I think the trade involves Kepler, not Polanco. I think it would be hard to get value for Polanco until he shows that the knee is not an issue. I actually think this acquisition makes a lot of sense. Solano's best positions are 2B and 1B, which happen to be the positions where we have an established player with injury concerns (Polanco) and an unestablished player with injury concerns (Kirilloff). If either can't start the season, Solano takes their spot. If the FO decides it would be better for Kirilloff to start in AAA to get his stroke back, Solano takes his spot. If an IF gets hurt in ST, Solano takes their spot. Good guy to have. Two things about the young players. There is no young MiLB 2B in the system ready to step in as a starter. Lee, Julien and Martin haven't even played a lot at AAA yet for goodness sakes. There was a time when the Twins would throw a guy like those 3 out there and hope. Those were also the times when we had no real shot at contending and/or no other options. We aren't that team any more. We intend to contend for at least a division title/playoff spot in each of the next 6 years that Correa and Buxton are together. Teams that want to do that don't throw AA players out here and hope; they get vets like Solano to fill in as injury insurance. Solano is 35. He's here for a year at most and he isn't blocking anybody. In the unlikely event that we have no injuries and Polanco and Kirilloff are healthy and productive, the only player effected is Lewis and that isn't until probably mid-July or August. Chances are that injuries and ineffectiveness will open up a spot for him and probably at least 1 of the other 3 this year. I think this move is smart and it tells me and the current roster that the Twins think they have a contending team. You're going to have to earn your spot with production on the field. Second, the player impacted is Larnach. Unless there is a trade, Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor and Gordon are the 5 OFs on the 26 man roster. Why? Because they've earned it with their performance on the field. Creating a spot for Larnach requires a trade or Kirilloff not being ready and Kepler or Gallo moving to 1B. There isn't any need to artificially create a spot for him. He hasn't earned it yet, admittedly due to injury, so he goes to AAA if nothing changes. Again, he'll get his shot. Somebody will get hurt or not hit and he's first one up. This is a smart move for a team that wants to/thinks they can contend. If we learn by mid-season that we can't, then we can trade guys like Solano. Farmer and Taylor (or maybe even Polanco and Kepler) to teams that can compete and let guys like Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, etc. get some MLB experience. No need to artificially create that opportunity now.

Sounds like this is insurance for Polanco coming back from his knee injury and for Kirilloff coming back from his wrist surgery. It's hard now to see how Larnach makes the team unless there is an OF trade or one of Kirilloff or Polanco can't go to start the season. Gordon is out of options and his performance last year puts him on the team, and they didn't bring in Farmer and Taylor to cut them or send them to AAA. Maybe a Kepler trade is in the works?

I think you map things out well but I am more optimistic on the probable outcome for 2 primary reasons, both involving the pitching. First, I really think our starting pitching is substantially better than it was for most of last season. We have 6 starters who have shown that they can give you something approximating a quality start most times out. Lat year, we had 3 starters that you could like followed by 2 for whom one would be thrilled with 5 innings, 4 runs or better - and who rarely met that modest standard. I feel like now we have 6 starters who can win any time they start , plus at least 2 in the minors who could be close to that standard. We will gave a chance to win MOST every time out this year unless we lose 2 or 3 starters long term. That's a HUGE improvement over last year. The second is I think the bullpen is much deeper both at the major league and AAA level. Is it a top 5 or top 10 in baseball bullpen? Probably not. But I do think it's a top half of baseball. So we not only are more likely to get a good start every time out,. we are less likely to blow a lead with our bullpen. To me, that's also a Huge improvement. Nothing kills a baseball tam faster than blowing late inning leads. Just look at last year. I think the offense is a question mark and the infield defense is a work in process (the OF defense should be top 5). We need young hitters to step up and be able to competently fill the number 4 and/or 6 holes from the Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach and Gordon group (adding Lewis by July, maybe Wallner and Lee as well). I think there's at least a 50/50 chance of that happening. I'm thinking 85-90 wins, wild card, and winning at least one playoff series in the offing for 2023.

It was very good to see Martin's uptick in September and in the AFL. Sometimes we forget that a prospect's pain is rarely linear. There will be up years and down years. Hopefully, last year was simply a down year caused by the Twins trying to change his stroke to generate more power. We may just need to live with Martin as a good on-base percentage guy with occasional power so he can use the swing he's always had and get back to his "normal" self. His normal self is still a good thing to have even if not perfect. I think there may be an opening at 2B sooner then we hope. The little snippets I read suggest that Polanco's knee is still not completely right. Let's not forget that with the shift being outlawed there is much more emphasis on range with middle infielders. Polanco's range was always decent but never stellar anyway, so losing a step could make it hard to keep him at 2B. Still, his bat definitely plays so it may be time for him to take that next step down the defensive spectrum and become a 1B. Even if we don't have to go that far, it is beginning to look like there are going to be significant available innings at 2B. Farmer can play against LH pitching, but you don't really want him playing much against RH pitching and besides, Farmer is 32 so he is not a long-term answer at any position. That's all a long way of saying there's going to be an opening at 2B in the next couple years or maybe even as soon as this year. Martin is a little ahead of Lee at this point, although probably behind Lewis when he returns. I really think this could be the year that one of those three takes over the 2B position and Polanco moves over to 1B with Kirilloff in a 1B/OF/DH role. Hey, if they can all hit, we will have to find them all a place to play.

I think Bigfork is probably right although I am an optimist. I see Cleveland winning 87-92 games this year and the Twins more in the 84-89 range. The key will be better performance from BP pitchers other than Duran, and finding a real "middle of the order, consistently hit 3 or 4 and do it well" bat amongst those vying for playing time at 1B, 3B, LF and DH. And health. With this roster, we are in huge trouble if either Correa, Buxton, Ryan or Duran misses 2 months. We're dead if 2 or 3 of those guys miss significant time. Bottom line to me is that this team COULD truly contend for a title IF the stars stay healthy and play well, at least two of Miranda, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff really step up and become quality hitters who can hit 3/4 and 6 on a contending team, one late inning guy emerges to back up Duran, and everybody else plays at least to their norm. That's a lot of IFs but a lot fewer than we had last year. That spells progress to me.

Pagan is on a one year 3.5m contract, Lopez, one year 3.525m contract. I see your point. It's hard to believe Hand would sign for less given that he ahs outperformed both by more "traditional" stats like ERA over the last 2-3 years. Hand is probably more like a $4-5m base with incentives that could get him to $6-$7m if you just compare contracts. Still, the fact Hand is older and thus more likely to decline, added with the fact that he is still unsigned may bring his price down. Maybe a $3.5 -3.575m base with incentives that could get him to $5m would get it done. It seems unlikely that anything less would work given Pagan and Lopez at that same range and Moore getting $7.55m...

I would be thrilled if the pitching pitched to its anticipated FIP, much less the anticipated ERA. If the Twins pitch like this in 2023, we will win more than the predicted 80-85 games. I guess a guy can dream....

At $2m, I agree, and I would even go to $3-4M given his track record. I do wonder if he isn't going to be more than that with Moore getting $7.55m. You may be right other than a possible deal with Hand. I expect the bullpen is otherwise set pending how people perform in Spring Training and possible injuries.

The Angels signed Matt Moore to a 1 year, 7.55m deal for 2023. No options in the deal. Would you pay him that? I would not given our other options. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/angels-nearing-deal-with-matt-moore.html

I think there are some young guys who could get that last bullpen spot but will be aced out by a Hand or similar signing. Henriquez, Sands, and Megill all come to mind. I'm guessing there are others. Having said that, I don't think it should drive the decision of whether or not to sign Hand. If the FO thinks he's the same guy or close to it as last year, we should sign him, I think thee will be plenty of opportunities for AAA relievers to get time at the MLB level due to injuries or ineffectiveness. We don't need to make a spot for any of those guys.

Nothing's going to happen with a guy like Hand until they can move Lewis and Paddack to the 60 man IL. There's no reason to lose a guy now on the 40 man roster when you can wait. I think that's true for most teams now that Chafin and Fulmer are gone. There isn't a great groundswell for Hand's services, so I don't think the risk of waiting is too high although not non-existent. He's not coming on a Minor league deal, it will take an MLB contract at the $3-5m level to bring him in at least, and it may take more. I'd be ok with paying him in that range and using him to fill out the bullpen. The young guys can start at AAA, except for Moran. He should break camp with the MLB club. There will be plenty of opportunities with the Twins as the season progresses due to injury or ineffectiveness. Megill, Henriquez, Sands, etc. will get their chances.

I do think this is the biggest issue with the 2023 roster as constructed so far - will the Twins score enough runs? I am more bullish than you on Correa and Miranda, and I do think that Polanco will be better this year due to better health. Plus Vasquez is an offensive (and defensive) upgrade at Catcher. The rest of the roster though is a crapshoot - particularly Kirilloff, Kepler and Gallo. We need that solid #5/6 hitter to hit after Polanco, Correa, Buxton and Miranda. We don't really have that guy although the DH spot is open. Maybe Larnach fills that DH spot well, we trade Kepler and Gordon starts (an offensive upgrade for sure), Kirilloff is good at the plate and stays healthy, and Gallo hits .220/.365 with 30 HRs. That's a lot of maybes. The first 4 hitters are good, not great. The last 5 could be anywhere from solid to weak. It's hard to see this group as a top 10 offense for 2023, maybe not even a top 15. The pitching is better but no better enough to carry a bottom 10 offense. And that's what we could be with a few injuries.

Interesting idea. I agree that Ober is in the rotation if Maeda is not. The question mark is Maeda. I could see him in the bullpen but his contract makes that a tough one since his bonuses are all tied to starts and he "only" makes $3 million without the bonuses. I cold see the twins signing him to another 2-3 year deal if he looks good in Spring training so they have more flexibility with his use. Maybe one with a signing bonus to take the sting out of him going to the bullpen this year.

This. The last roster spot is for Larnach to grab, not Gordon. Gordon is already on the team and should start if Kepler is traded. He'll also start if Kirilloff can't go and either Gallo or Kepler has to play 1B. Gordon could also see 2 games a week at DH. Bottom line is that as presently constructed this is a team with a lot of interchangeable pieces who all will play 5 days a week. Gordon is one of those pieces. .

I agree. How about full time in LF? We could use a RH hitting corner outfielder. He seems pretty athletic. I'm thinking that he has to be teachable enough to at least make the Garlick level on defense, no? Maybe also some time at 1B to make him more valuable? Put him out there in AAA with Walner in RF, Celestino in CF, Julien in LF, and Contreras as the 4th OF. It may not work but I don't really see another option. Besides, his hit/on base tool is such that we should really make the effort to try to find him a spot before relegating him to a DH.

I think the key battle is the corner OF position and whether we keep all of Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon. While there are a number of options, I'd like to see them trade Kepler and make LF a Gordon/Larnach/Farmer platoon. That opens up the DH spot for a number of players while still giving Larnach and Gordon 400-500 ABs apiece. It also opens up a spot for a RH hitting 1B/OF or a utility IF like Willi Castro. It is a little risky if we have a lot of injuries again but on balance I think we need to play Larnach and Gordon regularly and I just don't se how to do that if we keep Kepler on the roster. I would also like to se us pick up a LH bullpen piece, hopefully Chafin or Moore, after Lewis and Paddack go on the 60 day IL. Megill can then go to AAA as the closer. I could also see them keeping Henriquez or Sands as a long man with Alcala to AAA so he get his rhythm back after the layoff. The Starting pitchers should stay starting in AAA for depth for the season. Both Ober and Winder should be starting in AAA every 5th day so they are ready to come up start when necessary. I expect there to be at least 15-25 MLB starts available outside of the presumed starting 5 due to injuries and ineffectiveness issues so we will need these guys, plus Varland, SWR, and eventually Paddack.

You and me both, Mike. They also project Louie Varland at 4.19 in 129 innings. Interestingly, none of the regular 6 starters are projected below a 3.78 ERA or for more than 156 innings. The projections I saw in the Athletic are: Gray - 3.79, 123 innings Lopez - 3.92, 156 innings (most) Ryan - 3.91, 150 innings Mahle - 3.78 (best), 133 innings Maeda - 4.24 (worst of top 6), 83 innings (fewest of top 6) Ober - 4.00, 90 innings Winder - 4.82 (highest overall), 80 innings (fewest) Varland - 4.19, 129 innings SWR - 4.26, 108 innings Interesting stuff. I think probably pretty close to reality for the top 6 except that I think Ryan will be closer to 170 innings and a 3.5 ERA, and Gray will be closer to 150 innings with a 3.5 ERA. Would be thrilled with the predicted performance for Varland and SWR in MLB innings and ERA, a little disappointed if Ober isn't below a 4.00 ERA. Otherwise, these look pretty right on to me.

Applebee's, Olive Garden, TGI Fridays. Who wins?

Well said. He is a good example of the depth this team finally has for starting pitchers. There have been many years, if not most years, that he would be starting in the bigs for the Twins due to a lack of other options. I agree that he's unlikely to be a long term #1 or even a solid #2 starter unless he develops an "out" breaking pitch like Santana did with his change up. He just doesn't have that 94-95 mph plus velocity to get outs even when he's a little off. Still, even with his current arsenal he has the real potential to be a mid-rotation starter for a number of years. Add to that the fact that he's only 22 and he is a real asset. I think we'll know a lot more in October because I expect him to get at least 10-12 MLB starts this year as an injury replacement (plus I think Maeda winds up in the BP by year end with a new contract as a longer term BP pitcher). The Athletic did an article with prediction on the Twins top 9 starters. They put SWR at the #9 starter spot and Fangraphs predicts a 4.26 ERA in 108 innings for him. I think the prediction is for MLB innings. To me, that would be a solid start to a long big league career.

I think there’s two things going on that explain why we have not yet added a reliever. The first is we don’t want to drop anyone from the 40 man roster when pitchers and catchers report in just a couple of weeks and we can then put Paddack and Lewis on the 60 day IL. That then opens up two spots on the 40 man to add a reliever. I think that explains why Fulmer, Moore, Chafin, and others have not yet been signed by us or anyone else. I think I read that only the Astros have an open 40 man spot at this point The second is the Strahm contract did reset the reliever market and I think there’s some reluctance to go multiple years with any of these guys, especially when it’s going to be at least $7 million per year. I would like to see them sign Chafin or Moore, Fulmer not so much. I know that may mean some of the young guys have to take a backseat coming out of spring training, but there’s going to be lots of innings for everyone given the usual injuries in a pitching staff, I don’t think we should be very worried about young pitching not getting a chance; I’m much more worried about the veteran pitching getting so injured that young pitching is all we wind up having. I do think adding another quality left-handed reliever would really help hence Moore or Chafin. Whoever gives you the best deal. I’m less excited about Fulmer because he wasn’t really all that good the second half of last year and the peripherals are a little scary, so I am less confident in his ability to really perform.

interesting article. As someone who is the managing partner of a law firm, I completely understand why the FO isn’t constantly updating us on progress. Because if they did that, they couldn’t do their real job of running the team. Everybody wants information, and giving them complete daily information we make it impossible to do much of anything else. And worse, if you give people partial information, then they anchor their thinking based on information that becomes quickly outdated. One of the things that we have to understand about sports teams, and frankly about business in general, is there is a lot of information we will never know and really have no right or need to know. we need to let these guys do their jobs, update us as they find necessary, and then hold them accountable for the results. That does not include getting involved in the details or day-to-day changes.

Well said, Richie.