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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think the starter order is lining up pretty well for the twins. Ober struggled a bit in game 1 and Maeda didn't lock it down behind him, but with Lopez crushing it the twins are now looking at Gray in game 3 at home, Ryan in Game 4 at home, and Lopez ready to go back to Houston on regular rest if needed. But that scenario also means that if Gray and Ryan kick butt (along with the offense providing the juice), we could have Lopez lined up to go game 1 in the ALCS too, which would certainly be ideal. Didn't quite work out with Ober in game 1, but we're still in a good place, and it was a more than reasonable decision. And no shame in getting beat by Alvarez; that dude is a beast. Might be time to just say "we ain't pitching to you" with him, even with Lopez doing great in the matchup. the bottom half of the Astros lineup just isn't as scary as it used to be, and they really need Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman, and Tucker to carry them
  2. jmlease1
    I would still rank the Ryan for Cruz deal as the best; we gave up little (half a season of an aging DH that was unlikely to return) and got a lot (a guy under team control who quickly became a rotation mainstay and can be a playoff starter). More importantly, the twins got what they needed: a young healthy starter that would be our for years at a good price. The Lopez deal is a very good one, though because it raised the ceiling of the twins rotation and slotted us a pitcher with ace potential. We gave up a lot more in making the deal, but we also were still trading from a position of depth and strength (much like we did with the disappointing Mahle deal). Arraez is an excellent player, a good dude, and super fun to watch. But with Julien & Polanco, along with Miranda (even if Miranda's season went belly-up) and Martin and Lee rising, the Twins had plenty of depth to work with...even after having dealt Steer & CES in the ill-fated Mahle deal. But finding pitchers that can raise your ceiling like Lopez did is exceptionally expensive in free agency and not easy to develop either (many potentially great pitchers fall apart in the minors, often just from injury. see also, Canterino, Matt). I don't need to fleece the other team for it to be a great deal, as long as the Twins get what they need.
  3. jmlease1
    I'm sure you're right, but Wainwright did nothing for me either. Nerves/newness certainly didn't help him, nor being in a crowded booth with a guy like AJ who loves to talk. But he still wasn't very good. None of them seemed to pay attention to obvious strategy considerations and had seemingly no idea how the Twins would likely approach their substituting (as in, it's going to be different based on the game state, not just the platoon advantage, which is why Farmer was left in for another AB in the 5th; no need to weaken the defense with 2 outs and a 5-0 lead. But it's like no one in the booth had any idea, they just assumed the Twins would immediately flip the hitters once valdez was out of the game) A-rod is bad in the studio. He just is. Unoriginal and talks a lot without saying much. Jeter seemed bored. Ortiz didn't seem comfortable on that set.
  4. jmlease1
    Ooof. rough start for the hitters! Carr isn't a guy I know much about, but nice to see him have a good outing. Never know what can launch a player to the next level, but we've seen players take this opportunity in the AFL to show they can contribute. Maybe this helps Carr advance up a little bit.
  5. jmlease1
    Excellent win. Really good job coming back from a tough loss in Game 1 to show that they belonged in this series. Lopez was absolutely fantastic. He did a great job keeping Houston off-balance all night. Very good plan of attack against the Astros and Lopez executed it beautifully. This is the kind of start we acquired him to do for us, and it was wonderful to see. Same thing goes for Correa: he's been a big game player in his career, an excellent playoff competitor and he led the way again. We needed his hitting out there and he absolutely delivered. This is the kind of game we signed him for and he too delivered. Alvarez is a monster. Ooof. Lopez may have shut him down, but he takes any opportunity. Good thing the game was 6-0 before he struck. Despised the announcing team on FS1 last night. Thought they added nothing to the broadcast at all (Verducci wasn't bad with the dugout interviews, I guess) and missed the significance of various strategy points, probably because they spent more time talking about each other than the actual game. AJ's usually better than this, but it was a poor team. I guess it was nice to hear Smoltz wax poetic about how great Lopez was, but he spent more time talking about Lopez's interview after coming out than talking about how he actually pitched and attacked the Houston lineup. (the FS1 studio crew stinks too: Vasgerian isn't horrid, but A-Rod, Big Papi, and Jeter are a bad group. A-Rod acts like a try-hard kid desperately wanting everyone to like him, Ortiz only vaguely seems interested in what actually happened in the game, and Jeter seemed to mostly be there to say he had Lopez in Miami so he knew how great he was. Blegh) Great win. Looking forward to Gray kicking butt on Tuesday!
  6. jmlease1
    excellent win by the Twins. It's great to win a series, and have the pitching to get it done. Correa had a tough season (for him) at the plate, but he's been good in the field all year, and he really mattered in this series. Really smart play backing up Polanco in Game 1. Spotting the pickoff opportunity (and executing it) in Game 2. Turning DPs. And he's getting hits. This is exactly what we signed him for. Much as I want him to get 3 months off to heal from the plantar fasciitis...I'm move than ok with him getting 2 months off in exchange for a long run in the playoff, lol. Duran is just filthy, BTW.
  7. jmlease1
    There's no question Royce Lewis will be a fan-favorite if he can stay healthy. He plays with such joy and enthusiasm that you can't help but smile. I just hope he can stay healthy and have the kind of career to match his talent. (sadly, there are a lot of fans who will turn on him if he can't stay healthy as if injuries are a personal moral failing on his part) This is why he was drafted number 1. Looking forward to seeing much much more of Royce!
  8. jmlease1
    I'm surprised people are so ready to toss Polanco over the side. Once he got back into the lineup, he's been a key contributor for the Twins from August on, and an important part of their improved offense and success in locking down the division. He's also been a leader and team player and his switch-hitting makes the lineup more dangerous. Yes, Willi Castro is a better 3B defensively and so is Farmer, but Polanco is a far better hitter than either. Castro is a weapon to have off the bench and his versatility allows him to be deployed anywhere, including the OF, reducing the number of changes that need to be made if you bring him in. Doesn't work as well with Polanco. If Toronto wants to try to take advantage of Polanco's occasionally wobbly defense at 3B by slapping the ball into the ground, I'm all for it. This isn't the NBA or NFL when you can design your offense to target another team's worst defender (which still might be Julien, BTW) and exploit them. Or does anyone really think Toronto is going to light us up by bunting at Polanco all day? It was a great win, and it's so nice to finally be done with the losing streak. Here's hoping Sonny Gray makes Toronto hitters look silly today!
  9. jmlease1
    Excellent win. I was nervous as hell, but every time the Jays tried to get the game, someone stepped up from the Twins and shut it back down. That's really good to see, and hopefully gives the team confidence going into game two. Royce Lewis...what else is there to say? No moment is too big for him. Just stay healthy young man, because your star burns bright. Pablo Lopez sure looked like a Game One starter today. Very nice work from him, and then the bullpen slammed the door. Twins starting pitching looks like a playoff rotation to believe in. I'm not worried about Polanco. No, he didn't have a strong game at 3B, but he's a heck of a player and he will be fine. I see a big impact for him coming. That play by Correa to get Bichette was brilliant. Not a lot of players can make that play: first getting to that ball behind Polanco when you're so far to 2B, then fielding it cleanly, then making the smart and strong throw to home...that's wonderful SS play. I love watching him play defense out there.
  10. jmlease1
    The voting showed a fair result, almost a coin flip between Mr. Grand Slam and the Canadian God of Walks. Both had excellent seasons, leaving us with really only one further question: how much fun is it going to be to have them both with the Twins from Day One next season?!? Tough beat for Cement Bones Wallner, who walks away with this easily in most other years...but I think he'll be fine
  11. jmlease1
    When you're on the fringe, everything plays into the decisions. lack of options, limited success in MLB (even if celestino was pushed sooner than he should have been, though sheer necessity), limited progress as either a hitter or defender (he wasn't bad in in AAA this year, but he was a better hitter in 2021 and wasn't showing much power this year), and he'd had a professionalism blip during his time in the majors. Going into his age 25 season, he looks like a replacement level player/organizational depth guy. Maybe it would have been different for Celestino if he would have had a 2020 season to grow, hadn't been pushed up to MLB before he was ready in 2021, had been able to spend more time in AAA in 2022 before being called into action again, and hadn't gotten hurt early this season. He had a lot of things go wrong for him that weren't in his control. He also never took off as a hitter and was good (while a little erratic) but not great defensively.
  12. jmlease1
    More Colorado nonsense in the thin air. Such a weird place to play, got to be hard for pitchers to adjust, especially relievers who get little time to settle in. But Paddack (who has at least pitched there before) looked good and it seems clear he can be a useful pitcher in the playoffs and is setting himself up for a rotation spot next year. Great to see him bounce back from the second major elbow surgery and look healthy and strong. This front office has a mixed record on trades, but the end result on the Paddack deal is looking promising. I think if the Twins played their games in CO they'd be clearing 300 HRs on the regular. Kepler's dinger isn't out anywhere else. But props to the lineup for taking good ABs, pounding the ball and putting the game out of reach early.
  13. jmlease1
    Colorado definitely plays against Ryan's style and way of pitching. It's just reality. Did he have a great game? No, but it's also the first time he's pitched there and if you ask literally anyone in MLB they'll tell you it's a different deal. Ryan's biggest issue is always the long ball and playing in Colorado magnifies it. Good work by the bullpen to clean it up and finish it off.
  14. jmlease1
    I would much rather have Duran pitching to the other team's best hitters late in the game than saving him for an opportunity that might never come if you let a lesser reliever try to handle the heart of the other team's order in the 7th or 8th inning. I want my best reliever pitching in a close game. Having your best reliever only pitch the 9th in a save situation is wasting their talent. It's been interesting to see Rooker playing for the sorry, no-account A's (they are a really bad team). He had a really hot start to the season, tailed off drastically, and now is finishing the season on fire again. He's a poor defender, and I still can't figure out if he's a good stats on a bad team guy. Part of me is hoping that when he drove in 2 off Thielbar Solano muttered to him "well, you really knocked the crap out of that one..." :P Nice to keep winning. not worried about Lopez.
  15. jmlease1
    I'd like it a lot more if I could work from home and have the game on these days...
  16. jmlease1
    Fun game last night. Twins just keep working the walks, and correctly assuming that the next guy will take care of business. Morneau making the call on Wallner's HR was pretty fantastic. My goodness he pounded that one; I know they reported it at 463 ft, but it seemed even longer. Just an absolute bomb. Nice to see Paddack's stuff playing up. He looked great in the first inning he threw. Not so great in the second one, but it's good to have him back regardless. Should he be in the bullpen for the post-season? Maybe? Oakland is a pretty bad team, though. Yikes.
  17. jmlease1
    They are 100% going to make Sonny Gray the QO, and will be thrilled if he takes it. (spoiler alert: he's not going to take it) I'm also baffled by the presumption that Gray wants to leave. If it's because he's complained about being pulled from a game and/or said he wants to pitch deeper into games, I'll wager you all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours that if he goes somewhere else he'll say something very very similar to what he's been saying the past 2 seasons with the Twins. Sonny Gray basically never wants to come out, will almost always think he can go one more inning, get one more hitter, whatever. (and I like that about him! it's not a knock) He's also never been, basically his whole career, a guy who goes 7+ innings all the time. He hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season since he was 25. he's got some tough numbers that 3rd time through the order. He has had one of his best seasons as a professional this year, and set himself up for a very nice free agent contract. If he doesn't come back for the Twins it's going to be because he's getting a deal for more years and/or more money than the Twins are willing to go on him, not because he doesn't "like it" here. I expect Gray to get at least one 4-year contract offer for an AAV of $20M per season. Twins would bring him back on a 1 year deal, a 2 year deal, and maybe even a 3 (though I'm sure they'll start to get itchy about paying a pitcher $20M in year 3 at 36...), but they seem very unlikely to go 4 or 5. And someone who needs pitching will probably throw a 4+ year deal at him. Maybe he wouldn't be interested in going back to NYC (though being a Met is different than being with the Yankees), but they're not the only team that could toss that kind of money at Gray.
  18. jmlease1
    Really good year for Twins starting pitching and a fantastic change from previous years where we were throwing out a lot of guys to cover innings that were really contingent on them doing things they hadn't done before to be successful. Unsurprisingly, a lot of times they weren't. Health-wise the starters have been pretty good, with the exception of losing Mahle early. Ryan and Maeda missed some time, Ober was shut down to save his arm, but there's generally been good health and that's really great. Only 22 starts this season were made by pitchers not named Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober...and 10 of those 22 were given to Louis Varland, a quality prospect, and 5 went to Mahle who pitched as hoped before his elbow exploded. they have 5 starters this season who have at least 20 starts and all of them have an ERA+ of 100 or more. Compare that to last season when the Twins gave 65 starts to the law firm of Bundy, Archer, and Winder and none of them had an ERA+ over 90. They gave 45 starts to pitchers outside of their top 5 starters. It really matters when you don't give innings to poor pitchers. Starting depth doesn't guarantee wins in the playoffs, but at the same time we're also not hoping Randy Dobnak can start game one of playoff series any longer either. We can move arms like Varland and possibly Maeda into the bullpen to give us more strength there and Varland's late season move has paid dividends: in 10 1/3 IP as a reliever he's got 14 Ks, the WHIP is great, and he's been efficient, averaging less than 15 pitches per innings. Twins will need some health from the lineup to win in the playoffs, but starting pitching should give anyone hope, and the depth reinforcing the bullpen absolutely makes a difference.
  19. jmlease1
    I don't get this. Polanco is a better defender than Julien and it's not like anyone is taking the bat away from Julien by DHing him. This is a short series, win or go home, so wear & tear is not an issue any longer. I love Castro, he's been great for the Twins, but Michael A. Taylor is a gold glove caliber CF. Beyond that, part of what makes Castro great for this team is the ability to drop him in anywhere at any time and not worry about defensive alignments or needing to make a second move when you pinch hit/pinch run. Fair argument that the second lefty might not matter as much, Seth, with the 3-batter min rule, but it does allow you to be more pro-active in attacking the other team's lineup. One reliever move matters less than forcing a lineup change, and I'd rather be the team pushing the pace that way than reacting. But at the end of the day it really matter how much the team likes Funderburk and trusts him to perform. He's been excellent so far, but it's a tiny sample
  20. jmlease1
    My instinct is to keep an additional lefty and hang on to Funderburk over Paddack, and slide Maeda into the relief role rather than Ryan (I don't know that Ryan's stuff plays up at all in relief, so he's then really just a "break glass in case of emergency" player, and if that happens we have bigger problems. Maeda's breaking stuff and no need to pace himself makes him deployable situationally). Paddack is looking good right now, but he's still just coming back from TJ and I think there might be more utility in having a second lefty than a righty who would be behind Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, Pagan, and likely Maeda in the pecking order. Otherwise, I agree with this roster for the wild card. Personally I would consider going with 16 position players, but I think there's little chance the Twins will, so I'm just going to hope beyond hope they stick at 15-11 and don't do something silly like carry 12 pitchers and have at least 2 of them never play. This is predicated on Royce & Correa & Buxton being able to play, of course, but I think that's likely. Correa could probably play right now if they really needed him; his absence is about trying to get him as right as possible. Buxton is an interesting question, but for a short series I think he's likely to be able to go, even if it might not be in the field. As a right-hand bat I still would rather bet on his talent than the other options. Royce is the biggest concern...hamstring injuries are what they are and you just won't know until you know if he can go. I hope he can't; he's an energizer and a heck of a player. I think he makes it. If one of the "injured three" can't go, Luplow seems like a good option to add as a RH bat.
  21. jmlease1
    Good job finishing off the division title! Always good to get it done on your own terms, at home, and without having to take multiple shots at it. Good job by the Twins not letting it hang around. Happy to see Kirilloff get a dinger; if he's elevating the ball and flashing power it's a great sign for this club. I'm a huge fan of him as a hitter, but when he gets dinged up it really shows for him at the plate. And props to Julien for drawing a walk against a lefty for the first time this season. (Twins drew 10 walks. 10! that's crazy) Lopez looked really great early. Had a wobbly inning but still gave us a solid 6. Varland looked pretty great; that cutter seems to be really playing up now that he's hucking it at 90+. Duran's command was a bit off, but the bloody Angels also took good ABs against him. (plus you could see some of their guys up there really hoping for the walk). Glad he finished it. Rest up, get everyone as healthy as possible and let's get ready for the post-season!
  22. jmlease1
    Seriously. Gray & Lopez have been the MVPs this season, leading the rotation and providing impact innings. The lineup this year is filled with a bunch of guys who have been good for partial seasons or solid starting quality for most if not all of the year, but none of them has been as truly impactful and valuable as those two starters. Gray is going to finish top 5 in the AL Cy Young. Lopez is likely to get votes and could land top 10. Castro has been excellent for the team, come up in big moments, added an additional dimension and been available basically all season. That's important and we love him. But in terms of team MVP is he really more valuable than any one of Julien, Lewis, Jeffers, or Taylor? They've all been important, especially in a year where Buxton and Correa haven't performed to their standards (ugh, I hate injuries!). Arguably, the MVP on this team is simply depth. We haven't given away as many innings or ABs to players who just aren't up to MLB quality this year as last and it's made a huge difference. Instead of 240 innings going to Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer they've gone to Pablo Lopez and more of Sonny Gray. Instead of Celestino, we've had Michael A. Taylor. as the injuries piled up, there were a lot of ABs that went to guys that either weren't ready, were playing through injury, or not MLB players. This year, we have guys like Farmer and Solano, and Castro to absorb those rather than hoping Palacios or Contreras might get lucky. Very nice win against a Cincy team fighting for the playoffs. Never complain about winning a series on the road. Division is basically locked up, so let's get everyone healthy and ready for playoffs!
  23. jmlease1
    Gray has been excellent this season, and done exactly what the Twins hoped he could do when they traded for him. It's been great. he's been healthy and effective, and he's having one of his best seasons of his career. (appropriate, in Sonny Gray's 3 best seasons, he's also been an all-star) His previous other excellent seasons he's finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting, and deserve that accolade again this season. he's not going to win this year. And that's ok: Cole has been better. Not massively, not absurdly...but he has. More innings, more Ks, fewer walks and basically the same ERA. I'd give it to Cole. Gray should be top 5 for sure.
  24. jmlease1
    They've had some busts at the top of the draft (Cavaco & Sabato are notable) that were questionable at the time, but overall their drafts are producing and they've done a good job of finding value in later round picks, so it's not just dependent on the first rounder making good. Sure, Sabato probably isn't going to be anything...but Kal'ai Rosario and Marco Raya might. Even after dealing significant assets from the 2021 draft away, they still have guys like Festa, Ohl, and Nowlin developing in the pipeline. I'm pretty impressed overall with their drafts and subsequent development of players in the minors. They're not all going to work, but it's easy to see where talent is starting to flow upwards on a consistent basis. They're going to be facing some real questions on who to add to the 40-man and could have real competition for spots on the MLB roster even without free agent signings, and that's a great problem to have. Julien, Wallner, Lewis, Ober are all important contributors to this team, Varland coming in late to shore up the bullpen is big...and the cupboard is not bare!
  25. jmlease1
    Castro really had a excellent game. He's exactly what you like to have in this kind of super-utility role: switch hitter, loads of positional flexibility without major defensive downgrades, and speed. He's close to league average as a hitter, they've been able to keep him for being over-stretched at SS (while still being an option if needed)...he's been a great for for this team and was really important last night. I will admit, I didn't think a lot of the move. I thought it was a depth move that wouldn't have much impact, but since he had an option left I figured he'd end up as a "break glass" replacement in AAA. The utilization of his speed and development of his skill as a baserunner has really increased his value. It's interesting that he didn't do this much in Detroit; he had shown some signs in the minors of having the ability. He's also done a good job this season of being more patient at the plate and taking his walks.
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