TopGunn#22
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Everything posted by TopGunn#22
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Acquiring a bunch of #2's and #3's is sound strategy. Once upon a time, we had a true ACE (Johan Santana). We still haven't won a playoff game in forever. I'm risk averse tp overpaying for pitchers on the FA market. If we could sign Senga for a reasonable price I'd be for that. I'd rather utilize organizational strength (like LOTS of talented LH hitting outfielders) to TRADE for a targeted SP that is clearly better than anyone we currently have) and that we have a couple years of control at a manageable cost. Then, after those couple of years, assess how a Brandon Woodruff or Pablo Lopez has done and decide like we did with Berrios, whether we are extending or selling off.
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Rumor: Some Correa Rumors, Twins Offering Multiple Packages
TopGunn#22 replied to CRF's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think Doc Bauer and "Always in Moderation" have this dialed in pretty well. I'm all for signing Correa to any of those deals. Like Buxton last winter, he's our #1 priority. I also like Bogaerts as a solid #2 if things get too rich for Correa. Having the varying lengths also allows the Twins to have a contingency plan if Correa opts out with Lewis or Lee waiting in the wings. Any team with a Carlos Correa is better WITH him than without him (with the obvious exception being the World Champion Astros). :) I still think while that $8 million could help sign other free agents, that Kepler's trade value is pretty low. I'd consider a deal straight up for Lourdes Gurriel to give us a solid RH bat in our OF, but I'd hang onto Max one more year as my 4th outfielder and package Larnach to get us a bigger piece, like Jansen at catcher, or a Woodruff/Lopez #1 top of our rotation pitcher. I'd hate to move Larnach. I think he'll be a Jesse Winker style hitter. But with Kirilloff and Wallner (and Max for one more year) trading Larnach to upgrade catcher or the rotation would be better use of resources. -
Is Xander Bogaerts Enough to Replace Carlos Correa?
TopGunn#22 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While I would love to have CC back I just think he's going to want too much money and for too long a length of contract. I've always liked Bogaerts as our #2 option. Swanson is staying with the Braves. Turner is the BEST offensive player of all the SS's but his glove is suspect and he will also be cost prohibitive. Bogaerts, in my opinion is the 2nd best hitter and is more consistent as a hitter than Correa. With Lewis and Lee the Twins could sign Bogaerts for 5-6 years and shift him to other positions at some point when Lewis or Lee emerges as the SS. If Polanco isn't dealt this off-season, he will surely be dealt this midseason or next off-season. Julien appears to be the 2B of the future, but Bogaerts could play 2B & 3B when his SS days are over and DH the rest.- 9 replies
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Twins Trade Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels
TopGunn#22 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm late to this again but it's been fun reading through 90+ comments to get multiple perspectives. For the last week my keyboard has been loading what I type really SLOW so I have to type 5 words and then wait for them to print. If anything, it's forcing me to be more concise and less long winded, a benefit I'm sure you all will appreciate. I was hoping for a little more than a 1-A ball pitcher as well and I liked Gio as a player and a teammate. But this move makes sense seeing the logjam of 3B players the Twins currently have. Aaraez and Miranda, with Lewis, Lee and Julien waiting in the wings. Lewis won't be available until end June/early July and will certainly require a minor league stint at St. Paul to knock off the rust. But I think Lee and Julien are pretty close. And Farmer COULD be the SS depending on what happens on the Correa, Bogaerts etc...front. Here's something I believe I'm in the minority: Kepler only has a BTV of 5.6. He's a solid defensive OF'er whose offense has really disappointed the last 3 seasons. With Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner Gordon, and Kepler that's just too many LH hitters. Something has to give. Larnach has a 30.4 value in BTV. I would keep Max around in 2023 as the 4th OF'er and a late inning defensive replacement. I'd give him one more try to see if he can figure things out offensively. I'd trade Larnach despite how much I like him because he has the most market value right now. After 2023 you see how Kepler and Wallner did and reassess. But I use Larnach as a centerpiece to acquire a true starting catcher (Danny Jansen) or a true #1 to head the pitching staff (Pablo Lopez, Brandon Woodruff). The Urshela move and corresponding trade for Farmer is just the first move on the chessboard. There are a LOT of moves to be considered and made yet to come. Nothing should be judged in a vacuum.- 108 replies
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- gio urshela
- carlos correa
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It will be expensive indeed to resign him, but what are the Twins plans BEYOND resigning Correa ? A deal would certainly need to be creative and I like the 4 years with the options kicking in giving both the Twins and Correa future "protection." BEYOND signing Correa, the Twins need to be very aggressive, because signing him is a WIN NOW move. Several other moves would need to be made to contend NOW. Are they willing to make that commitment?? I for one would not mind making a run at Bogaerts if Correa got too expensive.
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I like a lot of what you've done but I'm in agreement with Nashville that I'm not moving Lee. It was a gift he fell and the Twins pounced. As much as I want to acquire Woodruff (and I REALLY do, I've written about it several times), I just wouldn't give up a possible Chipper Jones type. Just can't. However, I see the logic of what you're doing. With Correa locked up for a minimum of 4 years you've still got Lee and Lewis as future SS's. There's a surplus to deal from. I've also been pushing for a Jansen trade and would rather have him and Jason Castro than a Jeffers/Narvaez duo. MY problem is that Ober is a key trade piece to get Woodruff from the Brewers as well as a possible piece to acquire Jansen the catcher. I can't trade Ober twice. But Woodruff gives us a true stud at the top of our rotation and Jansen would solve our catching problem for years to come. Kenley Jansen would be a sneaky good pickup. He's a proven CLOSER. Duran could be relied upon in high leverage situations and if Lopez bounced back you'd have THREE really effective pitchers in the 7th, 8th and 9th. It would also order the bullpen in such a way that Rocco would practically be forced to have clearly defined roles for each pitcher. This is something Rocco needs to save him from himself.
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Happ and Hernandez are VERY interesting. I'd look into both options and weigh the cost for either. All the talk about the Cubs is how aggressive they will be going after a SS and pitching, so it's hard to imagine them parting ways with Happ. Hernandez is more of a situation where Toronto is overly RH in their lineup. Maybe we could offer Larnach or Kepler and something else (Kepler alone wouldn't get it done). Kepler and Polanco ??
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Twins Add Four to their 40-Man Roster
TopGunn#22 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm just glad Julien and Canterino were protected. I still have high hopes for Canterino. He will probably never be a SP but he could be a dominant arm in the BP and I'm fine with that if that's all he ever is.- 52 replies
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- edouard julien
- matt canterino
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Kiner-Falefa would be who I would go after. He's a perfect "bridge" SS with multi position utility if the Yanks non-tender him. Great glove, not a disaster as a #9 hitter. It would be surprising if the Yanks non-tendered him rather than seek a trade. I would be disappointed if the Twins non-tendered Gio. He's a keeper to me.
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- hunter renfroe
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It's time to move Martin and Julien up and continue to move them up if they merit it. I see Martin as a LF'er who can spell Buxton in CF when he's hurt. We can't count on Julien THIS season, at least at the beginning, but we may be looking at the final season of Polanco if he isn't traded this off season.
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- edouard julien
- austin martin
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I'm going to be kind of wishy washy on this "debate" and just say that I'm pretty happy we have both and even though they are both projected to be a SS, one of them probably won't end up there. I'm going to predict Lewis ends up at SS and Lee becomes a 3B who will be the next Chipper Jones. I'll take that.
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Nicely done Doc Munson ! Judge is a pipe dream, but Correa is indeed possible. You laid out how "affordable" the bulk of this roster is. Moving Polanco for SP'ing frees up even more money to be spent elsewhere. Maybe a trade could be made where the Twins take on a bigger contract to fill a void. For example, but not necessarily THE trade: Acquire Kris Bryant from the Rockies to be our RH hitting LF'er. In a deal like this, Colorado would have to to chip in a sizeable portion of his salary. How desperate are the Rockies to mitigate some of that salary pressure ? It's not a perfect scenario because Bryant is as injury prone as Buxton, but imagine if he was healthy and playing 140 games?
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One thing TK had going for him was he always had clearly defined "roles" for his BP guys. Rocco frustrates me because I can't figure out what his roles are for his BP. I'm not sure Rocco knows. I think Lopez will be just fine and he and Duran will be the closers.
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- jhoan duran
- matt moore
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Offseason Status Update: Starting with a Clean Slate
TopGunn#22 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Rosterman, Murphy would be VERY expensive. That's why I'd recommend trading for Jansen from Toronto. He's not as good, but he's MILES ahead of anyone we have. I'd like to use some leftover trade capital to try to land someone like Woodruff or Lopez to head our staff.- 18 replies
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- carlos correa
- michael fulmer
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C'mon there's a big hole for you to walk through.
TopGunn#22 commented on stringer bell's blog entry in stringer bell's Blog
I see Martin as a contender for LF and as a super utility guy who could grow into a bigger role. The Twins didn't hand Ceasar Tovar an exclusive position after acquiring him from the Reds. I see Martin as a similar type of player who grew into his role. Martin could certainly be the RH backup for CF as Kepler could be the LH backup. I would look to move Larnach as a primary piece in a deal to acquire Woodruff or Pablo Lopez. With our glut of LH hitting OF'ers, Larnach has the most "current" value at 30.4 (BTV). Kepler as a 4th OF and Kirilloff and Wallner is plenty of LH depth if someone is hurt or not playing well.- 10 comments
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Interesting moves. Adding a lot of RH bats. You're missing Jorge Lopez in the bullpen at $3 million so maybe subtract Trevor May and his $6 million and save $3 million. I like the Graveman addition. I think Robertson at that point is overkill. You could save another $8 million. Acquiring Singer is tremendous, maybe see if you can get Mondesi as well. It would be a gamble, but if the kid could ever stay healthy there is BIG upside. Then instead of Pollack you would save another $6 million and have a cheaper option in Mondesi. You could get closer to a more realistic budget, or spend that money somewhere else.
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RonCoomersOPS’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint
TopGunn#22 replied to RonCoomersOPS's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I see that you're loading up on prospects for the future Coom-Dog, but this roster would have attendance fall off a cliff and the Twins out of any kind of contention by Memorial Day. If we're willing to throw nearly $18 million annually at Taillon, why not just spend $5 million more per year and get someone "better." The re-do of this seasons catching combo won't do any better than this year, and would probably do worse. I do like that you brought back Correa. But if the Twins do indeed bring him back they will most certainly address the catching situation as well as add a "quality" SP. Taillon just doesn't move the needle. They should be looking to add someone thru FA or a trade that would be the #1 of our rotation. Not a #3 or #4. -
JYTwinsFan’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint
TopGunn#22 replied to JYTwinsFan's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Tremendous job JY ! My only quibble is that Jansen is twice the player Jeffers is. Jansen is your starter. Abreu is a bold signing but could be a great middle of the order hitter, ala Nelson Cruz. -
I like the targets (Correa and Rodon). I could see the team making ONE big splurge on a FA. Whether that's Correa (or Bogaerts) or Rodon is yet to be determined. Correa is FAR superior to Bogaerts with the glove. Bogaerts "might" have a tiny edge with the bat. Either would be good, but with Lewis and Lee in the pipeline, the idea of an 8-10 year contract for a SS seems a bad fit. Neither Lee or Lewis may make it as a SS, but the fact the Twins have TWO solid prospects has me thinking Bogaerts and Senga. Both are the cheaper option leaving the Twins with a little more payroll flexibility. But if the Twins were to bring back Correa on a 3-year $120 or a 4-year $150 deal I would like to see the Twins be aggressive on the trade market. Put a deal together with Toronto for Jansen 26.6 and Lourdes Gurriel 5.6 (BTV). Total 32.20 The Twins deal Larnach 30.4 and Enlow 2.2 for a total of 32.40. You now have Jansen behind the plate and Lourdes Gurriel a RH bat in LF. Then, I call the Brewers and offer Ober 19.50, Jeffers 13.0 and Winder 8.3 (total 40.8) for Brandon Woodruff 37.8 (BTV). Twins now have the following lineup: C Janson, 1B Arraez, 2B Polanco, SS Correa, 3B Urshela, LF Gurriel, CF Buxton, RF Wallner, Miranda DH. Kepler is 4th OF'er as a defensive replacement for Wallner and primary Buxton backup for CF. Gordon is also an outfield/infield backup. Kirilloff is in this lineup either at 1B or RF depending on his recovery. If he's healthy, he will hit, and somebody will sit. By dealing Jeffers I have no backup catcher (Brewers need a catcher for the future). I'll pick up a Jason Castro type for pennies. Pitching staff SP's: Woodruff, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan. With Woodruff, you have stability at the top. Varland & SWR would be available for spot starts or win long relief/piggyback jobs with Mahle and Maeda needing to be built up. Duran and Lopez head a BP that also features Jax, Theilbar, Alcala, with Megill and Sands. I don't know what that total payroll is, but I don't think it's over $150 million. Depending on how much money I have left to spend (if I indeed have any) a guy like Senga intrigues me to replace Maeda in the rotation while Kenta ramps up. In the end, I've added an ACE (that term is debatable I know), a starting caliber catcher, a RH bat for the outfield and a cornerstone Gold Glove, clutch hitting SS. A team like that should hold Twins fans interest into September and hopefully beyond and could certainly compete with the Guardians and White Sox. It's a plan for the NOW and for the future as Lewis and Lee emerge.
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- carlos correa
- carlos rodon
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There have been several posts written about the Twins catching situation. I've had comments in each. First, I've watched a lot of baseball (60-years worth) and played a bit as well. I could always be wrong, but I just don't think Jeffers is a starter, and he may even be a below average backup. I agree that we have no one on the farm with the exception of Noah Cardenas and he's a minimum of 2-years away. Murphy is too expensive if you want to use assets (both money and players) to shore up other areas. Look to trade for a Danny Jansen or Travis d'Arnaud. William Contreras is the catcher of the future in Atlanta. d'Arnaud is 33 years old and wouldn't have a prohibitive cost (13.3 BTV). And he could fill in for the 2-years it would take to see Cardenas make the team. The best option is Jansen from the Blue Jays. They have 3 guys who should all be full time catchers. The most any team can accommodate is TWO. Gabe Moreno is their star of the future and this kid is GOOD. He got a taste of the big leagues this season and I believe will be their #1. Alejandro Kirk is also very good and will get AB's at DH in addition to playing catcher. Jansen is a pretty darn good catcher and hitter who has battled some injuries only to see himself shoved down the pecking order because the other two guys are REALLY good. His BTV is 26.6. Murphy's is almost 3-times that. Call the Blue Jays. See what they're interested in. Make a deal. Jeffers is NOT the answer.
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I'm with tony&rodney on this one. We are a team who's manager still manages like it's 2019. Sorry Rocco, the Twins ain't hittin' 310 HR's in a season anytime soon. Tony&rodney correctly pointed out that we are in fact, a poor "baserunning" team. Our 3B coach sent MANY runners who were pegged out at the plate. As a team the Twins have players who could run: Buxton, Gordon, Kepler. But even SLOW runners can steal a base if you're aggressive enough and they're coached properly. I "rec" a lot of stuff mikelink writes, but I disagree with the "don't let Buxton run, he might get hurt" line of thinking. It's long past time to stop trying to "manage" Byron into better health. Let's just take the shackles off and let him play...and what comes will come. "FREE BYRON!!!" :)
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- byron buxton
- nick gordon
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Twins Trade Target: Sean Murphy
TopGunn#22 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nice article and discussion. However, as good as Murphy is, he's just too expensive in trade capital. You could get get 80% of Murphy with someone like Danny Jansen at a much lower cost. Jeffers is a career backup. I've seen enough and to me, he's not a starter. On the farm, the cupboard is bare for any help in the next two years. SS and #1 SP are bigger priorities, but a better catching option isn't far behind. An upgrade at catcher is needed and probably needs to come via a trade.- 27 replies
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- sean murphy
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I like the salary structure Indiana has laid out. The Twins have some young potential SS talent coming up their pipeline. They don't know if any of them could cut it at the Major League level. BUT...they could, and not just cut it, but a Lewis or Lee could turn out to be outstanding SS's. Front load the deal. Give Correa opt outs at 4 years and 6 years. You insure you would have Correa for 3 productive years. You give yourself time to see how Lewis, Lee and Miller develop. You're not wasting time on has-beens like Iglesias or Andrus. You're building for the "now" with an eye on the future.
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Raya is the guy to keep an eye on but he's at least a couple years away. I agree about Festa, could have/should have been mentioned. he's a little closer than the others. What is the latest on Matt Canterino. I still have high hopes for him but he's got to overcome the injury bug.
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- marco raya
- twins pitching
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