TopGunn#22

Wow, we just can't have good things. This article drops, and now Stewart is on the I.L. Funderburk just recalled to replace him. Makes me wonder AGAIN about Max Effort every pitch. You know, Goose Gossage sure looked like he was giving Max Effort every time he threw, but he had a long and successful career. But every arm, shoulder and elbow just isn't built that way.

Castro--Not going anywhere. Solid defensive versatility and SPEED. I consider Castro a key piece. Thielbar--For Caleb, it's all about health. He will land on the I.L. at least two more times this season. We have Funderburk, in every way a competent major league relief pitcher down in St. Paul. This is Caleb's last season. If his health holds up, he'll finish the year with the Twins. Farmer--A solid glove at 2nd, 3rd and SS he has to hit to his career numbers to avoid being traded or DFA 'd. Brooks Lee is getting healthier and closer to playing. Farmer is safe for now. But if Lee hits the ground running in St. Paul and Farmer continues to struggle at the plate, Farmer probably shouldn't finish the year with the Twins, despite his $6.3 million dollar salary. Santana--Nice to see the 3 HR's in back-to back-to back games. But with Kirilloff and Miranda hitting, the ice was getting pretty thin for Carlos. I will predict Santana cools off in the not too distant future and when Royce Lewis comes back Santana's time (and AB's) will dwindle. Jay Jackson--Jackson has a pretty decent track record but he's got to perform. Alcala is deserving of another opportunity and if some of these veteran guys don't do the job the Twins may just turn to the younger arms. Alcala and Funderburk and Varland for that matter if they consider the bullpen an option for him, are wasting bullets in St. Paul. Margot--The seat is the hottest for Margot. Frankly, the only thing I could see saving him is to go on a hot streak (similar to Santana's 3 game stretch). As guys get healthy or if they continue to perform at the major league level (Martin, who was not tearing it up but was clearly better than Margot to date) or in the minors (Kiersey) there could be no choice but to cut bait with Margot even if other teams are paying all but $4 million of his salary.

No, that's different Tar Heel. We TRADED Graterol (reluctantly) to get a guy for our rotation (Maeda) who gave us some very good return on the trade.

Yeah Seth, I agree. Let's STOP this "Emma" nonsense and just call him E-Rod for Pete's Sake ! Exciting to see some of these bats getting off to such a good start, and no mention of Walker Jenkins at all as he works to get healthy ! Kiersey is starting to grow on me. It started around August last year and not that I'm hoping for injuries or anything, but I'd love to see the kid get a 2-4 week shot with the Twins. That kind of speed and that kind of defense just jumps out for me. As a 4th outfielder with pinch running ability late in games or to begin the 10th inning at 2nd base could pay some dividends. I get that he's got a little more to prove, but he really intrigues me. Getting off to a hot start is always nice. Sustaining it is the challenge. Already looking forward to your May wrap up in early June.

Nice article Ted, and I always appreciate the random word here or there for vocabulary purposes. In this case "lacuna" which means "a blank space or missing part." Nicely done !! I remember when Brock Stewart was an up and coming starter in the Dodgers system, but who never really cleared the hurdle to become a part of their rotation. When he was throwing absolute gas out of the pen last year, I wondered how the Dodgers could ever let an arm like his get away. You've answered that question. How guys can go from throwing 92-93 to 97-98 like Stewart is remarkable to me. The MLB Players Union wants to blame all these pitcher injuries on the pitch clock being sped up. Anyone who ever watched Bob Gibson or Jim Kaat work knows that theory is nonsense. I'm sure the "Max Effort" on every pitch philosophy is at the center of these arm issues but that doesn't change how I marvel at Brock Stewart just coming in and blowing guys away each opportunity he's given. I don't know how long Stewart can keep this up, but he's a guy who has my confidence level WAY UP whenever he comes into a game.

As far as the Margot trade and what we gave up. I know we have a lot of SS "prospects" but lots of SS prospects end up getting moved to a different position. And when I see Correa play SS and I hearken back to watching someone like Ozzie Smith, the idea of having a Platinum Glove SS is REALLY appealing to me. We will probably regret giving him up, especially for a "talent" like Margot. I'm not sure Margot will finish this season with the Twins.

To me, the short term decision is also the long term decision: Play Austin Martin and continue to monitor E-Rod's progress. It's possible Martin just takes the position if things are worse for Buxton than we realize right now. Now that we're not trying to change Martin's approach to unlock possible "power potential" I'm happy with a guy that makes contact, gets on base at a high clip and can steal some bases hitting #1 or #2 or #8/#9 in our lineup. And all the while, keep monitoring Emmanuel Rodriguez's progress at AA. The Twins "COULD" promote him directly from AA but I would advise against that. And of course, this is all moot if Buxton just has some knee soreness and he'll be fine after some time off. The only reason we're really discussing this as Twins fans at this point is that we're all more than a little nervous about Buxton.

This is what makes the Margot signing questionable if he's NOT really the backup to Buxton in CF. It's probably wise to IL Byron for 10 days and get Austin Martin back up. I would love to see E-Rod get a chance, but I don't think he's quite ready and I've been pleased with what Austin Martin has done so far. If martin had NOT played as well as he did, I'd probably be clamoring for E-Rod )or Kiersey).

No. And can we finally put this speculative thread that bubbles up occasionally to bed at last? There are plenty of other topics we could discuss than to keep dredging this up. Has Carlos Santana found his stroke? Did getting a save "save" Caleb Theilbar's Twins career? Trevor Bauer did WHAT in the Mexican League? Should he join our rotation? Duran is not going to be a SP ever again.

Oh, there is blame aplenty to go around. It all starts with ownership. The idea $30 million needed to be cut from the salary budget when there was no great mystery the Pohlad's were NOT going to be $55 million in the hole for the 2024 season is laughable. They KNEW there were going to get a pretty hefty sum from Balley for 2024. These things don't just suddenly happen. They got $48 million. Cutting $30 million wasn't necessary. I'm not against dealing aging players to give younger, up and coming players a chance. With Julien, Brooks Lee and even Austin Martin in the pipeline there was no need to keep Polanco. So this brings me to the FO. This FO has always been either a home run or a strikeout. Much like their hitters. They either push all the right buttons with veteran pickups, like last year with the exception of Gallo (which made zero sense from the beginning--adding a LH bat when the team craved a RH bat). Or they push all the wrong buttons like Margot and Santana, or every veteran they brought in for the bullpen, also keeping an aging Theilbar when Funderburk is the obvious successor, to hanging on to an expensive utility guy like Farmer. The hitters need to hit. But I watch their approach and I wonder "are they being coached to this" or do they just have no plan or sense of situational hitting. The Twins are incredibly frustrating to watch while batting. I go back to the ownership and FO. They needed to fill the void left by Sonny Gray's exit and essentially chose not to. They deemed DeSclafani the replacement and then went with Varland as the #5 SP. Cleveland, Detroit and KC all WORKED to get better and it shows so far. If ownership imposed a "salary cap" for lack of a better term and the need for a veteran SP was acute, the answer was right there all along and actually still is.

There is a LOT of baseball left to play but right now the Twins are taking all the joy out of watching baseball with their inability to hit OR pitch. First hitting: In addition to all the other hitting stats the Twins are terrible at they are leading the majors in called 3rd strikes. If there is some kind of "approach" each hitter is being coached to apply each at bat I cannot figure out what it is. As a team, they look completely out of sorts. Many of us on TD have questioned this approach since 2020. Even in 2019, when balls were flying out of ballparks there were far too many strikeouts with runners on 2nd & 3rd and less than 2 outs. Consider this: Ryan was DEALING the other day against the Tigers. We have the lead. Their #9 hitter gets a gift walk on what should have been a called 3rd strike. Meadows then steals 2nd base. He comes in on a bloop hit. That hitter then steals 2nd base and comes in on an inside out jam shot by Carpenter, and before you know it, the Tigers have a 3-2 lead. It took Rocco until JUNE last year to figure out with the new rules, that stealing a base wasn't a venial sin. And that was mostly because Castro swiping bags was igniting the offense. There were teams that had more stolen bases than we even had attempts the first two months last year. Our hitting "approach" is horrible. But this is also a "POHLAD PROBLEM." We followed up a division winning season and the first playoff win in almost 20 years with an abysmal off season. The Tigers, Cleveland and Royals all made aggressive moves to improve. We cut payroll despite still getting $48 out of the $55 million for 2024 from Balley. Getting that TV money was not some big surprise. The Pohlad's had to know they were going to recoup most of that money. Yet they still cut payroll. We don't deserve this as Twins fans but the Pohlad's sure do as owners and Falvey and Levine do as the "yes men" who didn't push back and counsel otherwise. Instead we have washed up guys like Santana and Margot. We have veteran guys in our bullpen who are showing they are nothing more than journeymen while we send Alcala down and discuss sending Funderburk down when Duran and a host of others finally get healthy (because they have "options)." We decided we didn't really need any starting pitching reinforcements other than DeSclafani because we had Paddack and Varland. How long to paddack and Varland keep their rotation spots??? There is a lot of baseball yet to be played, and the Twins could still wake up and turn things around. But at this point they are being beaten in every facet of the game: Hitting, pitching, baserunning, fielding, managing, situational baseball, you name it. And there is nothing happening now or planned that would give Twins fans any hope it's going change either.

Great article. Good insights. His ceiling is high, but eventually you have to hit the ball. You are correct to have pointed out that his walk rate rate will continue to diminish the higher his level of play goes. Pitchers that make it to the major leagues have better command. He will certainly find himself in more 0-2 counts than he ever has before. When Joe Mauer used to fall behind 0-2 I was never worried. Mauer had elite bat to ball skills that led to a HOF career. E-Rod hits with more power and with that is a baked in higher swing and miss. But at some point, E-Rod is going to have to start hitting that "first pitch fastball." And he needs to be hitting some singles as well. The kid has power, he's going to hit his homers. He just needs to make contact more consistently. The upside is certainly there. And this is why the decision NOT to trade him for pitching was wise.

The guy on the current roster I'm least impressed with is Margot. When guys start getting healthy just DFA Margot and keep Austin Martin up. Larnach has actually looked better swinging the bat, albeit a very small sample size. If you were throwing darts at a dart board with Twins players on it, the worst guys to have hurt, and thus, hit with a dart, would be Lewis, Correa and Duran. (Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan as well). Now that I've jinxed Lopez and Ryan I hope I'm not going to become persona-no-grata on TD. Buxton is a constant source of frustration. The headline of the article "Why is Byron Buxton swinging and missing?" could just as easily have a post script "Because that's what he does!"

It IS going downhill fast. The only news that could push it lower than it already is would be something wrong with Pablo Lopez and an impending IL stint coming. Still, baseball is a LONG season. There is time for the Twins to right the ship. I keep hearing that Funderburk might get sent down once the bullpen returns to full health and I just don't understand it. He was one of their most impressive guys coming out of the pen last year and he is once again. I think Funderburk is a keeper.

After Ober's outing yesterday I've been dreading the announcement that he's got a tender elbow or a sore shoulder... :(

Well, I agree Castro would be my choice at 3B because he's a more dangerous offensive player than Farmer and is a good fit hitting out of the #9 hole. I wouldn't say he was "relegated" to LF. Castro is probably the best LF on the Twins roster. The fact that he's probably better at 3B than Farmer also speaks highly of his solid glove and versatility. If I was calling the shots for the Twins, my next move would be to promote Austin Martin after Lewis is placed on the I.L. Martin can be the RH platoon with Wallner in LF and still provide depth at 2B. It's time to get Martin up to the major league club anyway. How about a couple of classic piranhas hitting 8th and 9th in the lineup in Castro and Martin. The obvious callup would have been Brooks Lee but with the back issues let's give Martin a chance. Miranda isn't really a logical callup with Santana and Kirilloff. One or BOTH of them would have to be injured to see Miranda get the call. On another note: Wasn't it nice to see Julien come off the bench, step in against a tough lefty like Ragans, and proceed to line a shot up the middle for a base hit? Looks like the hard work the kid put in during the off season paid off.

I would have thought Jax being the BP guy who would get save opportunities whenever Duran wasn't available would have been the plan all along. I just bump everyone in the pen up one spot and re-set once Duran comes back fully healthy. The only deviation going forward without Duran would be to see Funderburk get a save opportunity or two if the last out or couple outs are tough LH hitters.

Yeah, Clevinger will only take a major league deal, and he's probably still sitting out there because he wants 2 or more years. I'd be interested in Reyes because of his fastball. Mondesi has always intrigued me, but he's never healthy (Twins fans are waaay to familiar with that). Boyd is at least a LH starter. Trevor Bauer just threw 4 scoreless innings against a Yankee "A-Squad" in Mexico. Someone will be desperate enough to sign him within a month.

I'm just glad Duran's injury is not to his arm. Jax and to some degree Stewart will have to step up. Hopefully he's back in 6 weeks strong as ever. I am actually fine with Varland stepping into "Disco's" spot, but I also wouldn't mind signing Clevinger (or dare I say it again...Bauer). Theilbar is no surprise at all. He will have at least 3 other stints on the IL for various ailments and I'm actually quite pleased with that. This should insure that Alcala and/or Funderburk break camp with the Twins. I'm convinced both of them are a better option than Theilbar at this stage of their careers. I drafted Duran for my Fantasy team and now I'm going to have to cut someone and pick up Jax.

To do well is never a bad thing. That said, he will start at St. Paul, where he has previously "raked" and if he continues to hit well, (again, that is not a bad thing), he could see himself back on the big league roster if needed. I don't think he has a long-term future with the Twins because he's been surpassed by better players at the positions he would play. I could see him being a trade chip to better the team in another area.

Doc I agree with your assessment 100%. In the first half of last season, or at least into June, Ryan was actually our best pitcher. I've got to believe, as you suggest, that his groin injury affected his Slider/Sweeper. It sure seemed like a darned good pitch early last year. I am always in favor of pitchers working to add new pitches, to expand their repertoire. The more the hitter has to be ready for, the more he's thinking too much in the batters box. Juan Marichal had quite a repertoire and it came from many different angles. He could command all his pitches from all those different angles. Joe Ryan doesn't have to be Marichal, but if he's a little more efficient with his pitches he may be able to go deeper into games. The strikeouts will always be there for Ryan. He just has a fastball that rides and gets hitters to chase. If adding a sinker that he feels good about throwing can make his other pitches better and he becomes more efficient he could be joining Lopez at the All Star Game this season. I also think the Twins plan for 2024 even without the payroll cut was that Ryan and Ober would replace Sonny Gray. I just think the Twins have confidence that both of them are going to continue to improve and spending $30 million on a SP wasn't necessary.

We all want "Good Max" in 2024 and it seemed like he had finally figured out how to get back to lifting the ball the second half of last year. I agree that the shift ban helped but only a little bit. The thing about hitting, is that when things go well EVERYTHING seems to fall into place. When they don't, things can go to hell in a handbasket quickly. If we get the "Good Max" in 2024, it will be tough to see him move on after the season. He will simply price himself out of Minnesota with Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins pushing for 2025. As you stated, the key for Max is launch angle, I am looking forward to him launching balls into the right field stands early and often this season.

Doc Bauer literally said everything I would have. (and he said it better anyway). I'm excited to see how 2024 goes for Wallner. Just the nature of his strengths and weaknesses means he's going to have hot streaks and cold streaks. It's the normal course for a power hitter. Having Margot gives us a decent platoon option for especially tough lefties but he needs to hit against some lefties to get better. I agree though, 20-25 HR's in 450 AB's seems VERY possible.

Prior to C.C. the Twins had a Black Hole at SS for many years. He had a tough season in 2023 but seems primed for a major bounce-back. I'm cautiously optimistic that is going to be the case. And with Farmer, Lewis, Lee and Castro the twins have developed more depth than they've maybe ever had for the SS position. We're in good hands.

Canterino is the Wild Card. When you look at how much he's pitched for the Twins in the minors since Rice University over-used him it just doesn't seem possible he could reach 125 innings. Yet, smarter people than me have stated he can do it. There is no question Canterino is worth more as a SP than a RP and with his stuff, if he could just stay healthy he could be VERY valuable as a RP. Canterino is probably the #1 guy I'm curious to see how 2024 unfolds. Will he be a SP? Will he end up in the bullpen? Will he FINALLY stay healthy? The stuff is undeniable. Yes, I'm also very interested in Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. but Canterino sits at the top for me and who he becomes will be very interesting in influencing the Twins fortunes in 2024 and beyond. So while the article is interesting and has elicited some excellent conversation, I'd just leave Duran in the bullpen.