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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I agree it was worth the risk at the time, when the Twins were competing to make the play-offs in 2022. As Kirkegaard said, life can only be understood backward but must be lived forward. Those who constantly look backward with the benefit of time are missing that point. If the Twins team this year has provided us anything in terms of a glimpse to winning - good pitching beats good hitting most times. Last year's rotation was a house of cards that would inevitably fall down. This year looks much more stable.
  2. arby58
    Lopez is an excellent starting pitcher with a real chance to be a legitimate ace - and those are the pitchers you need to win in the play-offs. Even the best hitters fail around 6 to 7 per 10 times at bat, so the 'play every day' thing isn't nearly as material as it suggests. Arraez is really great at getting on base - usually just first base. It still takes a lot to drive in a runner on first base. That might be why, even though he leads MLB in batting average, he has only scored 12 runs. Byron Buxton, with a batting average about half of Arraez' has scored 21 runs. It helps when you can hit HRs, doubles and triples - a lot easier to generate runs. That's what ultimately matters, not just BA. Besides just hitting the ball, there is also the defensive side, and that is not Arraez' strong suit (nor is speed on the basepaths). I think the trade was just fine, and the Twins will start hitting a bit better (Correa in particular). Let's judge this trade a bit further down the line and keep in mind the Twins also got at least one pretty good prospect in the deal.
  3. arby58
    Agreed - and some of it is just the 'math' of what it takes to generally produce a run. If you hit three singles, it MIGHT get you one run. If you hit a home run, obviously, that's a run. A single and a double - depends on the order of the two. A triple and a single, either way, is going to nearly always get you a run. That's why OPS is a far better offensive statistic than batting average. So, using OPS, the Twins are 10th in the AL - and the Guardians are dead last. It's still not great, but it's far better than being last.
  4. arby58
    Miranda has hit at every level and had his moments last year - I wouldn't give up on him yet. Ultimately, either he or Julien could end up being primarily a DH, as their defense is suspect.
  5. arby58
    The current batting average for all baseball is .247. There are more useful statistics, particularly OPS. Gallo has a low batting average but hits a lot of extra base hits. He is far above the league average OPS. The Twins, like it or not, are, at the moment, a home run hitting team, so batting average isn't the best measure for them. That said, I'm in full agreement about bringing up Alex and sending down Trevor - which they did earlier today. Trevor is not driving the ball (hence the significant drop of late in his OPS).
  6. arby58
    yeah, it takes two to make a trade. Kepler's meh last couple of years have hollowed out his trade value, and Larnach's lack of power is also a problem for trade value of a corner outfielder.
  7. arby58
    The games against the Yankees and Astros show they are competitive. In years past, they might have one or two starting pitcher you felt reasonably good about, and then were nervous the other three days. Now, with Lopez, Gray, and Ryan they have at least three, and Mahle, Ober and (maybe) Maeda aren't far behind. The bullpen has at least four arms that inspire confidence as well. Then there is the defense, which is really good. That's a great foundation for winning baseball. The offense is a bit of a concern - they need to get Correa going for starters - but the return of Polanco has been encouraging, as has been the emergence of Larnach and Gallo in the middle of the lineup. Plus, they've only played 3 games with KC and none with Detroit, so it's not like they're feasting on their central division cousins.
  8. arby58
    I'd consider it addition by subtraction. For whatever reason, Donaldson didn't really jell with teammates or fans. As others have pointed out, the injury uncertainty was also a concern.
  9. arby58
    I don't understand the 'Maeda will be unhappy in the bullpen' discussion. He is an UFA at the end of the season, he's not a kid anymore, and he's coming off major surgery. He doesn't really have any leverage in those discussions. The Twins should use him now as they think is best - and the bullpen may be the place.
  10. arby58
    It's a good point and an interesting discussion. They signed Paddack for 3 years/$12.6 million, so he isn't a free agent until after the 2025 season. Gray is a UFA after this season, but the way he's pitching, unless they totally go off the rails, they're not moving him. Probably Maeda (don't expect much in return) and maybe Mahle if Ober and Paddack are deemed ready. That said, neither of them are going to get you a ton back as 2024 UFAs.
  11. arby58
    It is encouraging to see this kind of depth in the Twins organization. I think this gets overlooked in some of the angst associated with trading Arraez - while there probably isn't a player who is going to hit .317 among this group (although Julien might get close), there are enough other skills they bring (power, speed, defensive ability) that may make some of them a credible replacement for him. Most of them are also infielders, and you can only play four of them at a time. Trading for a top end pitcher like Lopez makes a lot of sense from that standpoint (and also Mahle).
  12. arby58
    Kudos - the quip (and fact) about Pagan alone was worth the reading time.
  13. arby58
    AAA baseball is a fun place to watch rising stars. I live in Des Moines, IA, where the Iowa Cubs are the Chicago Cubs' triple A team. I recall in the 2014-2016 years watching Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber playing and thinking the Cubs would have a great offense in a couple years - that turned out to be the case and led to their World Series winning team. Last year, I got to see Alex Kirilloff go on a tear in two games in Des Moines, where he hit three home runs combined plus some other extra base hits. I was sitting in a left field box when a ball he crushed rammed against the facing just above our box. It hit so hard they had to send in a couple of guys to repair it - interesting to watch them work just above us. Here's hoping St. Paul is similarly eventful this year.
  14. arby58
    Are you suggesting that the right field wall in St. Paul replicates the one at Target Field? Seems a stretch to use that as the example of things they need to work on, given that every field's dimensions are different.
  15. arby58
    I don't see the value in rushing Julien. Granted, he played college ball in the SEC, but a comparison to Polanco is reasonable. Polanco's path through the minors was a year at A+/AA, a year at AA/AAA, and a year split between AAA and the Twins. Julien did his first year at A/A+, then a year primarily at AA. I think a full year at AAA is the likely path, with a September 'take a look' call up a possibility. Lewis will be back in the second half of the year, and it is far more likely if they still need a hand at 2B, he's more ready. That said, Farmer/Gordon looks like a perfectly fine platoon there if Polanco has extended downtime. It's also possible Polanco comes back and takes over more DH at bats from Buxton, and he goes to the outfield.
  16. arby58
    The last American League batting champion with an average lower than Arraez' 2022 .316 was Carl Yastrzemski's .301 in 1968. Facts are facts. Through 5 games, Arraez has 11 total bases, but all but 1 are singles. The Twins are scoring most of their runs via the long ball or extra base hits. It's been that way in baseball for a long time. For the Twins, he also wouldn't have an ideal position - they have far better defensive second basemen, and he is not meant for the corner infield positions because of his lack of power. He is also not fleet of foot. I'll grant you Arraez will hit over .300, and I already said I enjoyed watching him play and those 'scrappy' at bats. That said, I enjoy seeing the Twins win even more - and I would argue this year's line-up has the potential to do more of that with Lopez and without Arraez than the other way around. I also think they have a better chance of winning a play-off game with Lopez starting one of them than by trading him for a few Arraez singles.
  17. arby58
    It's three games into the season. Until yesterday, Gallo was at .000 as well. Kepler has hit a couple of balls well, it's not as if he's not making contact. Neither Gordon or Correa has done much either. I'm not a card carrying member of the Max Kepler fan club, but some people were suggesting Gallo sit after his first two games as well.
  18. arby58
    Julien has all of 12 at bats at the AAA level, and is 1 for 12. Long-term, yes, he's part of their future, but he's not part of it in April 2023.
  19. arby58
    Arraez was fun to watch, because he always battled and often found a way to scratch out a single after a long at bat. That said, he was fourth in MLB in batting average but only 28th in OPS, which every baseball analyst will tell you is a far better measuring stick of offensive output than batting average, which weights a single and a home run equally. Arraez hits singles. Compare stat lines from last year: (in order batting average, on base percentage, slugging average, OPS): .316 .375 .420 .795 .311 .425 .686 1.111 Arraez is the first column - and yes, he led the AL in batting average (at the lowest level in several decades). The second column is Aaron Judge, who had a phenomenal offensive year, hitting 62 homes runs (to Arraez' 8) and also significantly more walks (which is why his OBP was higher), and also 16 steals to 4 for Arraez. As Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner said, “singles hitters drive Fords and home run hitters drive Cadillacs.”
  20. arby58
    Last year, while fourth in MLB in BA, Arraez was 29th in runs scored. Those ahead of him were either power hitters who got themselves into better position to score or did it themselves by hitting a home run (the likes of Judge, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Schwarber, etc), players with more speed (Altuve, Betts, Ramirez, Rodriguez, etc.), or both. The object of the game is to score runs, and it's a lot harder when you hit singles and don't run particularly well (i.e., going from first to third on another single) than when you start on second, third or touch all the bases via a home run.
  21. arby58
    First, Arraez has played four games, the Twins you mention only three. In four games, Arraez has 10 total bases (9 singles, 1 double). In three games, Buxton has 9 total bases (a double, a triple, and four singles. Gallo has 10 total bases (a double and two home runs). Singles are not as impactful as doubles, triples and home runs. Pointing these things out isn't 'hating' Arraez, but he is one-dimensional as a player. He's really good at that one dimension, but hitting a lot of singles isn't the way most teams win a lot of ballgames.
  22. arby58
    Julien is currently 1 for 12 for St. Paul. Playing him every day at the MLB level sounds a little premature.
  23. arby58
    Earl Weaver was fond of the three-run homer, and with good reason. Gallo's yesterday changed the complexion of the game and allowed the Twins to use Moran and Pagan rather than a couple of their top-tier arms (although it was a shame that Jax had to warm up in the ninth, meaning he may not be available today). If Gallo is batting first, he probably doesn't get as many opportunities for a three-run home run. Given his below-average OBP, I think he's better suited to batting, say, fifth than first.
  24. arby58
    I liked Arraez a lot - he was fun to watch. That said, he could also 'clog up' the bases because he has little speed. Watching the Twins go first to third on singles in the KC series was good baseball. If Arraez was batting first and on first base, and Buxton got a hit, in many cases, Arraez would just be on second base. Buxton on first makes it harder for him to wreak havoc on the bases. Arraez was also not a great defensive player. The Twins played great defense in the KC series, and if/when Polanco comes back and plays second base (better than Araez would) where do you play him? He's not the caliber of any of the Twins regular outfielders, Miranda appears to be their third baseman, and Kiriloff their first baseman. Gallo looked pretty impactful yesterday, with two HRs and a ringing double. Arraez isn't going to get you 10 total bases in a single game - and it takes a lot of singles to have that impact.
  25. arby58
    Ober is 6'9" - he's going to have a release point closer to home plate than a pitch who is, say, 6 inches shorter. A batter has less reaction time when a pitch it thrown harder - but also when it is released closer to home plate. Given that he has struck out 263 batters in 214 minor league innings and 147 in 148 major league innings, it doesn't appear that throwing harder is necessarily a key need for him.
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