arby58

After the All Star break, Twins runs scored in games (not counting post season): 0 - 5 1 - 3 2 - 6 3 - 8 4 - 5 5 - 13 6 - 4 7 - 9 8 - 4 9 - 4 10 - 5 11 - 1 12 - 2 13 - 1 14 - 1 20 - 1 (the silly game where Cleveland offered up batting pitching the last few innings) Five or over gives you a great chance to win, as the median team runs scored per team in MLB this year was 4.55. In the second half, the Twins scored 5 or over 47 times and 4 or less 27 times. Doesn't sound that awful to me.

A helpful look forward. The next step would be to do some 'guesstimating' at how the salaries for the young core, if they perform reasonably well, escalates. The good news for the Twins is that both Kepler and Polanco will fall off the books in 1 and 2 years respectively (if the Twins pick up the option on Polanco for 2025), so that provides useful money as well. The other good news is there is another wave of emerging 'nearly ready for prime time' players ala Lee, Martin, Severino that will continue to provide salary value in coming years. The pitching side is less clear, but the hitting/fielding side looks pretty strong.

The 'we didn't hit well enough in the regular season' narrative is, IMHO, overblown. The Twins were 10th of 30 teams in runs scored in the regular season - and that is the only offensive stat that matters. One of the teams still alive, Arizona, scored fewer runs, as did two other play-off teams. They had their chances against Houston, and when your starting pitcher, team MVP Sonny Gray, gives up 5 runs in 4 innings when the series was tied 1-1, I'm having a hard time suggesting it was all on the hitters.

Joe Nathan started closing at age 29. Between ages 29 and 39, he had 44, 43, 36, 37, 39, 47, 14 (injured), 37, 43, and 35 saves. I guess he 'was not even close' when he turned 40.

Short of Kirk Gibson, there aren't many 'one hit' stars of post-season baseball. The author isn't asking for a team full of Altuve's - he was mostly asking for just one more. Seems like a reasonable ask.

I don't think this contract would be enough money to induce Duran to sign a long-term deal. You're probably needing to get closer to the recent arbitration awards for Hader, otherwise you aren't looking at it from a current dollars perspective.

thanks for the correction, you are, of course correct. Koufax was incredible.

It's difficult to think they would get either of these, let alone both, for him, unless they assume most of his salary.

In 2022, Rosario's OPS was .587. This year he 'improved' to .755. If this is what you aspire, it isn't much.

Kepler, Pagan, Maeda, and Paddack are non-examples of the sunk cost fallacy.

Martin still has plenty to prove, in the 'can hit MLB pitching' category. He had a .791 OPS at St. Paul in 2023.

Severino is a switch hitter - and his OPS numbers from both sides of the plate in 2023 were remarkably similar: .901 batting left, .889 batting right. If he is the real deal, no reason to platoon him.

I forgot to mention that Severino's first at bat at St. Paul was impressive - it landed 467 feet from home plate.

For all the interest in playing Brooks Lee out of position, Yunior Severino deserves more discussion. While he has primarily been a second or third baseman, he did play `first base in 15 games for St. Paul. While they are different types of hitters, they put up similarly good numbers with both spending about the same amount of time last year between AA and AAA. Lee had 39 more plate appearances, but they scored a similar number of runs (83 for Lee, 80 for Severino), and both had 84 RBIs. Lee hits far more doubles (39 versus 17) and Severino far more home runs (35 versus 16). They draw a similar number of walks (56 for Lee, 51 for Severino). Severino strikes out a lot more (173 versus 91), but his OPS is also significantly higher. I suppose a cynic would say that Severino's strike out rate makes him a natural for the Twins, but if he can replicate those power numbers . . . He's also just 23 years old (Lee is 22), so both should have promising futures for the Twins or elsewhere.

Absolutely. That said, 9 shut outs in one year? That's impressive, and, even adjusting for number of starts, is something current pitchers will never approach.

Who wouldn't love to have him - good for 40 HRS and 100+ RBIs a year. That said, it sounds like the Mets are trying to extend him, and he's represented by Scott Boros, meaning the Twins extending him would be costly. I highly doubt that one works out.

Awhile back, I was working on a post (still working on it) to identify the greatest season by a Twins starting pitcher. I still haven't entirely decided on that one, but after going through the starting pitching stats for every year since the Washington Senators became the Minnesota Twins (in other words, since 1961) there were a couple of fascinating finds - stats that I doubt will ever be surpassed. Combined Wins and Losses in a Season The Twins record for most wins in a season was Jim Kaat's 25 in 1965. Back then, there was only one Cy Young for all of MLB, and Sandy Koufax was the unanimous winner after compiling a phenomenal set of stats: 26-8 record, 2.04 ERA, 160 ERA+, 9 shutouts, and 382 strikeouts in 335.2 innings pitched. Wow. Kaat also set another mark that I doubt will be surpassed, particularly in today's baseball: along with the 25 wins, he also accumulated 13 losses, and those 38 combined results should stand the test of time. It's notable that close behind was Bert Blyleven, with 37, and Jim Perry with 36. Innings Pitched and Shutouts in a Season These records are also safe, given the specialized nature of pitching these days. For innings pitched, these days 200 is considered a full season - but the Twins have had three pitchers surpass 300 innings - Bert Blyleven had 325 in the 1973 season, Jim Kaat had 304.2 in 1966, and Dave Goltz had 303 in 1977. Nowadays, pitchers get huzzahs for just a handful of complete games, let alone shutouts, but in that 1973 season, Blyleven had 9 shutouts, far and away the best ever for a Twins pitcher. Workhorse Pitcher Season for the Ages Bert's 1973 season was phenomenal in many respects. On a 81-81 team, he went 20-17, but the other stats are eye openers (including innings pitched and shutouts, already mentioned). His 2.52 season ERA was third best ever among Twins starting pitchers (and those who knew that Camilo Pascual is first with 2.46 take a bow. Yes, Jim Kaat was 2.06 in 1972, but he only started 15 games so that doesn't count - same with strike or pandemic-shortened seasons). Speaking of complete games, Bert also had 25 that year, which is also far and away the best by a Twins pitcher. His 258 strikeouts are also the second most, trailing only Johan Santana's 265 in 2004. On top of that, his ERA+ of 156 was fifth best all time for a Twins starting pitcher. Quite a year! Best Two Combined Seasons This one could someday be overcome (give it your best shot, Pablo) but I doubt it. It is also debatable, as Frank Viola and Jim Perry both won a Cy Young and also put together another strong year. Still, this one belongs to Johan Santana. Not only did he win the Cy Young in both 2004 and 2006, he also had the two best ERA+ years, at 182(!) in 2004 and 162 in 2006. As previously mentioned, he put up the biggest strikeout total in 2004 and had an ERA of 2.61 and 2.71 in 2004 and 2006 respectively. Besides that, 20-6 and 19-6 win-loss records weren't too shabby either.

I know people point to the Houston 'professional' approach to hitting, and they were among the MLB leaders in fewest strikeouts and most runs scored. in the regular season Still, drawing conclusions about the Twins offense from that four game series is definitely an issue of small sample size. In two games so far against Texas, Houston was shut out in one game (and has scored four total runs in the two games combined), and last night struck out 10 times. Good pitching happens - particularly in the play-offs. For all the lamenting about strike outs, the Twins were 10th in MLB in runs scored, which isn't bad.

It's in there - Extend at least one young building block.

It's not trivial - not everybody's rate will go down the same, because there are players who take very few walks (and that is the predominant plate appearance that does not show up in at bats). If you're going to use a statistic, it's better to use one that is more precise in expressing what it means. Strike outs per plate appearance is far superior to per at bat.

I'd be interested in comparable trades - where a team gives up a solid starting pitcher with team control for a corner outfielder with somewhere around 300 plate appearances. Given the value placed on starting pitching, this sounds far-fetched. I'm thinking back on what it took to get Maehle from the Reds, and he didn't have that much team control and came with injury concerns.

If the K issue is so compelling for Wallner, why on earth would either team take him in return for 'a solid SP with team control?' Certainly not the Mariners, who have plenty of offense (and also strike out nearly as much as the Twins). Wallner showed a nice flash in the second half, but he is still largely unproven - not the kind of player who will get you a 'solid SP with team control.'

I appreciate that the author provides some balance to the 'to be or not to be' discussion around strike outs. It is worth noting that the two teams that had the most strike outs, Minnesota and Seattle, scored far more runs than the two teams with the least strikeouts, Cleveland and Washington. A good offense that doesn't strike out a lot can also be shut down and look pretty lame - Houston's 2-0 loss to Texas last night is an example. In the regular season, Houston was 5th in runs scored and had the 3rd fewest strikeouts. Some players are, based on what they are trying to do, going to strike out a lot. Wallner, for example, is going to rocket a fair number of balls out of the ballpark. In that respect, he is following in a long line of power hitters. Strikeouts as a percentage of at bats is not the most useful calculation. At bats needs to be replaced by plate appearances, because walks, being hit by a pitch, and sacrifice flies do not count as at bats. For a player like Julien, who walks a lot, it makes a material difference. Julien had 338 at bats but 408 plate appearances. His percentage of strike outs based on plate appearances was 31% - quite a bit different than 38%. Wallner takes walks AND gets hit by a pitch more than most. He had 254 plate appearances, and his strike out percentage based on that was also 31%.

Gordon is on the 60-day IL so not currently counting against the 40 man roster, but if, say, Lee is ready, he needs a spot. If you keep Farmer and Solano returns - along with Lewis, Julien, Polanco, and Correa, it's hard to understand why you would need more than one utility player, as most can play multiple positions. Gordon had a horrible start to the season, and if I'm thinking 'redemption tour' for the Twins, I'd look first at Miranda, who has some power, is two years younger, and could be a platoon option at first base.

This is just wrong. The Twins were tied for third for average innings pitched by starting pitchers (5.5). Only Houston and Seattle were better. The Guardians were at 5.3.