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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    You list him as a utility guy, but the Twins decided to bring him onto the roster to be their starting shortstop. Lots of guys have flexibility - are you going to refer to Kirilloff or Gallo as 'utility guys' because they can play first base or the outfield? What matters is the role the team believes they fill, and they are not going to keep four guys with no defined role.
  2. arby58
    They didn't sign Farmer as a utility guy - they signed him because they believed Correa was gone. You could say Solano was a 'utility guy' but the reality is they signed him to be a right-handed platoon player, which was situationally necessary.
  3. arby58
    How is a team 6 games over .500 with 'maybe 5-6 players of MLB talent?' That's not credible. As for keeping 'home grown talent' - there are only 40 slots, and you need to be mindful of the pipeline. Some of the players they traded away may well have been lost in the Rule 5 draft if they had kept them.
  4. arby58
    Only so many slots on the 40-man roster, and four of them aren't going to be utility guys.
  5. arby58
    I think people are seriously over-valuing the trade value of some of our corner outfielders. They're both bouncing around between AAA and the majors, and neither is exactly a complete player (or in danger of becoming one).
  6. arby58
    He's certainly proven himself more than any of these three. Why would the Cardinals be interested in another outfielder, and Miranda's season doesn't scream 'we need him' to any team. The Cardinals would ask for a much better prospect than a low minor leaguer here - probably Maya, and that isn't happening.
  7. arby58
    Taylor has the pedigree and performance. If I had to 'bet the farm' on any Twin to win a Gold Glove this year, it would be him.
  8. arby58
    Every indication is Buxton's knee won't allow him to play center field regularly (and probably not as well as Taylor occasionally).
  9. arby58
    Taylor has great defensive value in center field, which is a pretty important position.
  10. arby58
    I'm curious who on the team would be a better contributor as the full-time DH? He leads the team in runs scored - by a lot (43 to 33) - is tied for the lead in home runs, second in RBIs, etc. Granted, the Twins overall offensive performance is poor (24th in runs scored) but I don't see anybody who, being regularly slotted at DH, would give them better offensive performance than Buxton..
  11. arby58
    You asked the question of when a strikeout is preferable to putting the ball in play. The answer is accurate.
  12. arby58
    I wasn't 'making the argument' that Ks are better than putting the ball in play. I just replied to the question of when putting the ball in play can be worse than a strike out. If it's unclear that making two (or three) outs by putting the ball in play is worse than a strike out, then you're watching a different game than I am. I would also note the statistic about grounding into double plays is often mentioned by TV color commentators. Apparently, they think it is notable.
  13. arby58
    Hitting into a double play - yet you've put the ball in play.
  14. arby58
    I compared him to Acuna because the post suggested Arraez might win the MVP this year - which is absurd. Please, read with some context.
  15. arby58
    There seems to be so much angst about Ks with fans here. It's an out - teams will have far more of them a game than players reach base safely. Sure, it's generally not productive, but it isn't the abject failure it's sometimes made out to be. Power hitters generally strike out a lot. The career leaders in strikeouts all fit that characterization. In 1962, Harmon Killebrew struck out a career high 142 times - but also 48 home runs.
  16. arby58
    Is the current Gallo really a 'failure narrative?' His OPS leads the team among qualified players. That alone suggests otherwise. For all their 'failures' the Twins remind me a bit of the much-loved 1987 Twins. They were 85-78 in the regular season - which is certainly a record this Twins team could achieve. They were well below league average in batting average, a bit above average in runs scored, and the pitching was suspect (and this team differs from them there). Still, they two decent starting pitchers, and they caught fire at the right time and won it all. Players like Gallo can get hot and carry a team for a week at a time - you need those types at the right time.
  17. arby58
    If that is Arraez' only job, fine, but baseball is far more nuanced than that. The ultimate job for any offensive player is to produce runs - and it's a lot harder to produce one while standing on first than if on second, third or rounding the bases after a home run. It's also complicated if you don't run particularly well. The fact remains that Arraez isn't scoring many runs for a player with his batting average, and some of the blame falls on him mostly standing on first base after his base hits.
  18. arby58
    The Gallo to Arraez comparison was to make a point, and it is still valid - singles hitters don't contribute to an offense the way hitters do with more power. The best example right now is Atlanta's Acuna. Arraez is still hitting an all-world .388 - good for him. Acuna is hitting 'just' .335. So, big edge for Arraez, right? The story ends there, because Acuna has scored over twice as many runs (77 to 37), hit seven times as many home runs (21 to 3), and has an OPS of 1.011 versus Arraez' .917. I had to LOL at a recent post that suggested Arraez could win the NL MVP - not if this statistical comparisons hold up.
  19. arby58
    Well, 200.2 innings pitched for the Twins, 12-6 record, ERA of 3.13, with 201 Ks and 32 walks - that is a damn good line for a starting pitcher. If that isn't a number one starting pitcher, my guess is any team in baseball would take that as their number two.
  20. arby58
    I'm a finance guy, so I also 'get' what you are saying about long versus short term investments. That said, please note that your comparison starts with an 'if' statement related to Perry. There is no 'if' associated with Gray - he has been a solid starting pitcher, and that's not really a fair way of stating it either. Over the last season and a half, he is 12-6 with an ERA around 3. That is not just 'decent' that is very good. Further, the Twins are in contention this year to win their division. Last time I checked, as a fan, I'm interested in them winning in the present, not just the future. As Keynes once put it, 'in the long run, we're all dead.'
  21. arby58
    First, the Twins this year aren't a 'bad team.' They still have a strong possibility to win the division, they are not the Royals or As, and they need strong starting pitching to do so, because their offense is inconsistent. Gray has provided them that. Second, you are assuming Perry will become at least as solid a major league pitcher. Given the 'time value' situation of the present versus the future, he will have to perform very well for several years to make up for that.
  22. arby58
    In finance, present value represents the current value of future cash flows, based on the principle that money in the present is worth more than money in the future. I'd argue this same principle applies in a baseball trade where you get a 'known quantity' to use in the present, in exchange for a somewhat unknown quantity that could have great value in the future. That is the Gray versus Perry situation, and I won't regret the trade if Petty becomes an ace, taking into consideration the number of years in the future that may be and the inherent risks associated with what was a teen aged pitcher. If he pans out, this will probably be a relatively even trade, and that is still a big if. Meanwhile, Gray has been a very solid major league starting pitcher in both years; if the Twins choose not to pursue him next year, they will still have gotten a good return on the Perry investment, IMHO.
  23. arby58
    It's a good point - you can't just view a draft by its first round. There are plenty of first round busts in baseball, and plenty that become all stars from later rounds.
  24. arby58
    I'd flip Lee and Lewis at this point. Lewis is a significant contributor at the major league level, and Lee isn't exactly setting the world on fire at AA. That said, I expect to see them both playing the infield for the Twins in a couple of years.
  25. arby58
    Miranda butchered first base last year, and his defense at third doesn't suggest he will become the second coming of Don Mattingly. If anybody is moving to first base, it may well be Julien.
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