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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I don't see the value in rushing Julien. Granted, he played college ball in the SEC, but a comparison to Polanco is reasonable. Polanco's path through the minors was a year at A+/AA, a year at AA/AAA, and a year split between AAA and the Twins. Julien did his first year at A/A+, then a year primarily at AA. I think a full year at AAA is the likely path, with a September 'take a look' call up a possibility. Lewis will be back in the second half of the year, and it is far more likely if they still need a hand at 2B, he's more ready. That said, Farmer/Gordon looks like a perfectly fine platoon there if Polanco has extended downtime. It's also possible Polanco comes back and takes over more DH at bats from Buxton, and he goes to the outfield.
  2. arby58
    The last American League batting champion with an average lower than Arraez' 2022 .316 was Carl Yastrzemski's .301 in 1968. Facts are facts. Through 5 games, Arraez has 11 total bases, but all but 1 are singles. The Twins are scoring most of their runs via the long ball or extra base hits. It's been that way in baseball for a long time. For the Twins, he also wouldn't have an ideal position - they have far better defensive second basemen, and he is not meant for the corner infield positions because of his lack of power. He is also not fleet of foot. I'll grant you Arraez will hit over .300, and I already said I enjoyed watching him play and those 'scrappy' at bats. That said, I enjoy seeing the Twins win even more - and I would argue this year's line-up has the potential to do more of that with Lopez and without Arraez than the other way around. I also think they have a better chance of winning a play-off game with Lopez starting one of them than by trading him for a few Arraez singles.
  3. arby58
    It's three games into the season. Until yesterday, Gallo was at .000 as well. Kepler has hit a couple of balls well, it's not as if he's not making contact. Neither Gordon or Correa has done much either. I'm not a card carrying member of the Max Kepler fan club, but some people were suggesting Gallo sit after his first two games as well.
  4. arby58
    Julien has all of 12 at bats at the AAA level, and is 1 for 12. Long-term, yes, he's part of their future, but he's not part of it in April 2023.
  5. arby58
    Arraez was fun to watch, because he always battled and often found a way to scratch out a single after a long at bat. That said, he was fourth in MLB in batting average but only 28th in OPS, which every baseball analyst will tell you is a far better measuring stick of offensive output than batting average, which weights a single and a home run equally. Arraez hits singles. Compare stat lines from last year: (in order batting average, on base percentage, slugging average, OPS): .316 .375 .420 .795 .311 .425 .686 1.111 Arraez is the first column - and yes, he led the AL in batting average (at the lowest level in several decades). The second column is Aaron Judge, who had a phenomenal offensive year, hitting 62 homes runs (to Arraez' 8) and also significantly more walks (which is why his OBP was higher), and also 16 steals to 4 for Arraez. As Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner said, “singles hitters drive Fords and home run hitters drive Cadillacs.”
  6. arby58
    Last year, while fourth in MLB in BA, Arraez was 29th in runs scored. Those ahead of him were either power hitters who got themselves into better position to score or did it themselves by hitting a home run (the likes of Judge, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Schwarber, etc), players with more speed (Altuve, Betts, Ramirez, Rodriguez, etc.), or both. The object of the game is to score runs, and it's a lot harder when you hit singles and don't run particularly well (i.e., going from first to third on another single) than when you start on second, third or touch all the bases via a home run.
  7. arby58
    First, Arraez has played four games, the Twins you mention only three. In four games, Arraez has 10 total bases (9 singles, 1 double). In three games, Buxton has 9 total bases (a double, a triple, and four singles. Gallo has 10 total bases (a double and two home runs). Singles are not as impactful as doubles, triples and home runs. Pointing these things out isn't 'hating' Arraez, but he is one-dimensional as a player. He's really good at that one dimension, but hitting a lot of singles isn't the way most teams win a lot of ballgames.
  8. arby58
    Julien is currently 1 for 12 for St. Paul. Playing him every day at the MLB level sounds a little premature.
  9. arby58
    Earl Weaver was fond of the three-run homer, and with good reason. Gallo's yesterday changed the complexion of the game and allowed the Twins to use Moran and Pagan rather than a couple of their top-tier arms (although it was a shame that Jax had to warm up in the ninth, meaning he may not be available today). If Gallo is batting first, he probably doesn't get as many opportunities for a three-run home run. Given his below-average OBP, I think he's better suited to batting, say, fifth than first.
  10. arby58
    I liked Arraez a lot - he was fun to watch. That said, he could also 'clog up' the bases because he has little speed. Watching the Twins go first to third on singles in the KC series was good baseball. If Arraez was batting first and on first base, and Buxton got a hit, in many cases, Arraez would just be on second base. Buxton on first makes it harder for him to wreak havoc on the bases. Arraez was also not a great defensive player. The Twins played great defense in the KC series, and if/when Polanco comes back and plays second base (better than Araez would) where do you play him? He's not the caliber of any of the Twins regular outfielders, Miranda appears to be their third baseman, and Kiriloff their first baseman. Gallo looked pretty impactful yesterday, with two HRs and a ringing double. Arraez isn't going to get you 10 total bases in a single game - and it takes a lot of singles to have that impact.
  11. arby58
    Ober is 6'9" - he's going to have a release point closer to home plate than a pitch who is, say, 6 inches shorter. A batter has less reaction time when a pitch it thrown harder - but also when it is released closer to home plate. Given that he has struck out 263 batters in 214 minor league innings and 147 in 148 major league innings, it doesn't appear that throwing harder is necessarily a key need for him.
  12. arby58
    Baseball Prospectus is out with their prediction for the Twins in 2023 - between 88 and 89 wins and first in the AL Central. They attribute the bullpen with 4.5 wins above replacement, led by Duran (no surprise) but followed pretty closely by Moran, Thielbar, and PAGAN (I kid you not). Lopez and Jax trail behind those three. Hmmm.
  13. arby58
    Well, every player is a question mark if you don't accept past performance as at least an indicator of future results. Jax was great last year, start to finish - I'd say he's not much of a question mark. Same with Thielbar. Along with Duran, I'd say that's a pretty good bullpen foundation.
  14. arby58
    Why not? He's 6'2" so would have the size you prefer there. He hits, he plays, right?
  15. arby58
    You could say that about any relief pitcher, since their innings pitched are a smaller sample size than starters. That said, the data across the board is solid - and ERA is really not the stat to rely upon, particularly for relievers.
  16. arby58
    That's correct, based on last year. I think the hope is that the shift restrictions help Kepler (I think that is a sound assumption) and Gallo returns to prior form (we'll see). That said, if they aren't hitting particularly well but are great defensively, they'll see some time. That is certainly the best feature of Taylor's game (granted, he was far better offensively than either Gallo or Kepler last year).
  17. arby58
    It's complicated. Nelson Cruz, Jim Thome, Chili Davis, etc. were not a 'wasted cog.' As has also been pointed out, if a player is a negative defensvely (as Arraez was, and Miranda probably will be), it'd be better to keep their bat in the lineup and put a better defender in the field. That's why my long-term bet (if he hits and doesn't improve defensively) is on Miranda as a semi-regular DH.
  18. arby58
    I tend to agree, especially with Kepler and Gallo, as a big part of their value is as defensive outfielders.
  19. arby58
    Still possible they move Kepler, which frees up a spot for Larnach. I like them getting a right-handed bat for first base, as Kiriloff hit .167 against left handed pitching last year (granted, a small sample size).
  20. arby58
    Gallo is primarily in outfielder (and a good one defensively). Solano is primarily an infielder. Gallo bats from the left side, Solano from the right side. Those don't sound redundant to me.
  21. arby58
    Lee played a handful of games at AA last year, and that was also the level for Julien - neither of them has even played a game at AAA, so calling them 'ready' is a stretch. Meanwhile, using healthy in the same sentence as Lewis or Kiriloff remains to be seen, and in Lewis' case probably won't be known for several months. The move is solid - the Twins have more depth on this team than any in a long time.
  22. arby58
    The good news is the Twins are pretty well set in the infield in 2023, so even if he's doing well, there isn't an urgent need to move him up (knocking on wood that injuries don't pile up ala 2022).
  23. arby58
    If both Lewis and Lee 'make it' while Correa is slotted at SS, Polanco at 2B, and Miranda is at 3B, there's a bit of a log jam there. My guess is if this transpires, Miranda becomes primarily a DH. If Lewis' mobility is reduced but he can still rake, he could also become an option at 1B. Of course, if they both make it, it's a good problem to have (and makes a player like Farmer expendable).
  24. arby58
    Not a chance - he is untouchable. Comparisons with Mike Trout if he tears up high-A (Trout played at Cedar Rapids at 18) wouldn't be out of place.
  25. arby58
    If you compare Julien's numbers at AA with Arraez, there really is no comparison - Julien's power and speed are far more impactful. Yes, he's older than Arraez was at AA, but if he hits anywhere near that at AAA, the Twins will find a place for him, and a DH who hits for average, power, and can steal bases is far better than anybody else they will trot out there.
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