arby58

I like Polanco (he could always hit) and his contract is team friendly, but that isn't going to get you a 'top prospect' given his injury concerns and the position he plays. You'll probably get a couple of mid-level prospects for him. I'd keep him, play him when he's healthy, and accept that there will be plenty of at bats for your tier of veterans (Farmer, Solano) or young players (Julien, Lewis).

Judging the Arraez trade after a few months is premature. We were all sad to see Nelson Cruz go, but the Twins got Joe Ryan for a few months of him (can't complain about that one). I was sad to see Eduardo Escobar go too - he was a fan favorite. The pain subsided when Jhoan Duran turned into one of the best closers in baseball. Yes, the Twins lost the Presley trade, but you can't win them all. Berrios hasn't exactly tore up baseball since leaving the Twins. He was 12-7 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP last year. This year is better, at 6-4, 3.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but that would still slot around 3 or 4 in terms of performance of Twins starting pitchers this year. Eddie Rosario was maddingly inconsistent - and that continues to date. He had a pedestrian 2020 with Cleveland (.685 OPS, which is Kepler-like without the defense) before catching fire latter half of the year with Atlanta (.903 OPS) and was great in the play-offs. Then he had a really crappy last year (.587 OPS) and is just average this year. Who knows with him? Also, for the Kepler haters, his career WAR is 17.1 in 7 full seasons and Rosario's is 10.7 in 8 full seasons.

I'm not following how Jeffers can be 5-0 in his last 8 as the starter. Are you treating him like a pitcher, where if he leaves the game and it is tied, it doesn't count? I don't think that is an accurate way to do it, for several reasons. Regardless, this seems like a stat with way too many exogenous variables to have much predictive value.

They're paying him $10 million a year for three years, so it's not a super big albatross - and baseball's only salary cap is a team's internal budget. The barrel rate chart is a bit unfair, comparing 1/3 of a season to 3/3rds of a season. Your stats are otherwise solid, but catcher (along with SS and to some extent CF) is a position where defense comes first, and offense is gravy. For now, the pitching staff looks good, and you have to give the catchers some credit for that. Even so, Jeffers is starting to impress at the plate, so this may work itself out.

Brad Radke had that as well.

This starting staff is really solid, and it's great to know that at least 4 of the 5 will be back next year. The Twins need maybe one more shut down arm in the bullpen. They've been competitive with the best teams so far this year. Now, with Lewis and Kirilloff back, they sort of remind me of the Phillies last year - if they get hot, watch out.

First, the Twins ARE a homerun hitting team - among 30 MLB teams, they have the 7th most home runs. By contrast, they are 14th in runs scored. As for Arraez, he had lots of endearing qualities, but statistically he does just one thing really well - get on first base. Of his 68 hits, 55 are singles, 11 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR. As a result, even with a .376 BA, his OPS is .897. That's very good, but it's not other-worldly. Even more concerning is the fact with all those times on base, he's only scored 19 runs - that is far fewer than the 31 Byron Buxton has scored for the Twins. The fact is it's a lot tougher to score from first than the other hits, and he also doesn't run particularly well. Sure, it would be nice to have his OBP in the lineup (although I suspect the average will fall as the year goes on), but it's really hard to score a lot of runs with primarily singles hitters.

I would change that to too much of the same level of talent. The guys we're talking about are mostly average to slightly above average at this point in time. The difference with some is we know their ceiling (Kepler in particular). At least with Larnach and Wallner there is probably room to grow.

Every hitter will have up and down weeks/months. Gallo may be injured to the point it is impacting his numbers. Still, it's hard to argue with the cumulative numbers: he leads the team in home runs, 2nd in runs scored, 3rd in RBIs, has the highest OPS (.862) among those who have played the entire regular season, 3rd in WAR but only 6th in total at bats. Gallo is not the problem.

Is he really that bad defensively? He has a cannon of an arm - teams will stop running on him based on that. When you can make 97 mph throws from right field, that is an asset.

They rank 6th in home runs - like it or not, this isn't a team that is going to regularly string together three hits to score a run. Joey Gallo has 21 his on the season, and an incredible 15 of them are extra base hits. The good news is just a week ago, the Twins were last in batting average, so they're moving up - as is Gallo, whose batting average is now 'up' to .214.

The front office gets dumped on a lot, but the depth they added has been really important. Add Solano to that list - his fielding is sometimes an 'adventure' but he is as good as advertised against left handed pitching. Also the pickup of Stewart is looking like a really good move - the guy has been far more than could have been asked since coming over from St. Paul.

The percentage of OBP that is hits versus walks varies from player to player. Last year, Juan Soto had 135 walks. His batting average was .242, and his OBP was .401. Do the math, walks were a lot more than 20 percent of his OBP. Same with Aaron Judge and some other players.

I'll guarantee it will be an improvement over Sano's last season, and it won't be that hard to get above his second to last season either.

So refute it - use numbers and baseball logic. I have provided enough of that to make a prima facia case - have a crack at it rather than just posting a hitting your head against a rectangle meme.

Their careers have some similarity - about the same number of at bats (Sano 2502, Gallo 2455), HRs (Sano 162, Gallo 186), and OPS (Sano .808, Gallo .799). There is one big difference - Gallo's WAR is 15.5 and Sano is 7.6. That is probably largely due to Gallo's far superior defensive ability. Of course, Sano isn't employed by a MLB team, and I'm certain that Minnesota is happy to have Gallo - even with a low batting average, his 91 ABs with 9 HR and 21 RBIs would translate over a full season to something like 45 HRs and 100+ RBIs. I understand that will probably not be the outcome, but it will be far better than the last couple of years of Sano.

Sure, but getting on base isn't the ultimate desired outcome, it is scoring runs. I remember Bert Blyleven pointing out that a walk or a single with two outs is generally not going to produce a run, and he (and other commentators) discussed the importance in those situations of hitting the ball hard somewhere, which makes it much more likely you might score a run. That, of course, is the whole point of slugging percentage as an offensive statistic.

Actually it is on base percentage and slugging percentage, not batting average, that make up OPS. Theoretically, one could have a super high on base percentage and a meh batting average.

That's not an offensive statistic. That said, missing bats is fielder independent, so it does reflect on the pitcher's ability to control an offense.

Headlines are meant to get a reader to read it. If you would prefer 'less useful than OPS or WAR' statistic, that's fine with me. The beauty of OPS is it gives hitters like Arraez credit for what they do (via OBP), but it also recognizes that a walk or single is less impactful than extra base hits. The Gallo example is a stark reflection of that. As I noted in another post, Gallo went 1 for 5 yesterday, but the 1 was a HR, so he had a run scored and a run batted in - but his batting average went down. Arraez was 2 for 4, but neither hit led to him scoring a run or batting one in. His batting average went up. Who had the better game?

This is a bit over-simplified. A strikeout is not always worse than putting the ball in play (balls put in play that result in a double or triple play, or, in the case of a strikeout, the runner safe via a wild pitch or passed ball), and putting the ball in play is often far better than a walk (any double, triple or home run). OBP still gives the same credit to a walk or single as a double, triple, or home run, which is a weakness. That is why OPS, which combines OBP and slugging percentage, is a better measure.

Baseball is a game replete with statistics. I would note we are now more than 1/4 through the season, so the statistics are starting to gain more traction. Yesterday, Joey Gallo went 1 for 5, but the one hit was a two-run home run. So he generated his own run and drove in two runs. His batting average went down. Yesterday, Luis Arraez went 2 for 4; he didn't score or drive in any runs. His batting average went up. This is an example of why batting average is a poor primary indicator of offensive performance.

I would point out that those enamored with Arraez' offensive output have posted continuous updates on his batting average since back in April. At least the talk of him hitting .400 for the season has died down a bit now that he's at .382.

Runs and RBIs do tell a useful story. So, if you compare them, in 91 at bats, Gallo has scored 17 runs and driven in 21; in 136 at bats, Arraez has scored 14 runs and driven in 14 runs.

As a kid, I remember looking at batting average as the key to the value of a player. OK, not every player, as I was a Harmon Killebrew fan, and he never really hit for average. That should have alerted me to the fact that not all base hits are created equal - and those that sail over the fences are far more valuable than a single to center field. There are a lot of people who complain about trading away last year's AL batting champion, Louis Arreaz. That said, while he hits for a very high average, just how impactful is he? I would argue not that impactful. Let's compare two players so far this year - and they are night and day difference makers. Introducing Joey Gallo. Gallo is an all or nothing player offensively. He strikes out a lot, but when he gets hit, he hits the ball hard. Many of those get out of the ballpark or at least produce extra base hits. Arraez is the oppposite - he doesn't really hit the ball hard, but he gets a lot of base hits. Through tonight, his batting average is a gaudy .379. By contrast, Gallo is at .209. So who is more effective? I would argue it is about a wash, and, given the many more at bats for Arraez, Gallo is more impactful In 132 at bats, Arraez has scored just 14 runs. That is largely because it takes a lot to score a run when you just hit a single or walk, and that is what Arraez mostly does. With 132 at bats, Arraez' 50 hits are mostly singles (7 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run), so his OPS is.905. That's pretty good, but remember the runs scored thing. In just 86 at bats, Gallo has scored 16 runs, and has a similar .903 OPS. The difference is he drives the ball - he has 18 hits, and nearly all are extra base hits (5 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 home runs). So Gallo is hitting .209, and Arraez is hitting .379 - but the impact factors in baseball suggest Gallo has been more valuable offensively.