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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    For all the complaints about the Twins offense, they were 10th of 30 teams in runs scored this season - and that, not batting average, strike-outs or any other stat, is what matters when you are at bat. Some of not having 'elite' stats is because they employed a platoon strategy at several positions, and some is injuries. Like it or not, the Twins had a lineup that got pretty equal contribution from 1-9 throughout the season. That didn't happen in the play-offs, but again - small sample size. Relying on elite players is great - until they don't produce. Look at Atlanta: Acuna and Olson combined for 95 home runs and 245 RBIs (!) in the regular season. In their 4 post season games combined; 0 home runs and 0 RBIs.
  2. arby58
    There were also several off days.
  3. arby58
    I agree that moving Lewis to the outfield makes sense. I'm not ready to give up on Kirilloff - he was very effective when healthy and is still only 25 years old. Julien may be able to be a serviceable second baseman - or DH.
  4. arby58
    I appreciate your noting the accomplishments of this team - there were plenty, and the team has a young core that has the potential to play October baseball for many years. ESPN has a column that explores reactions/over-reactions based on game results. I think some of the criticism is hand-wringing over a few games - small sample size is my first reaction. Meanwhile, if you want to talk about a team that under-performed, how about the Atlanta Braves? They had what some were describing as the best offense ever in baseball, and they scored 8 runs in 4 games against the Phillies! I would also note that Houston has a pretty good pitching staff as well. If there is a single trade in recent years that I regret the most for the Twins, it was sending Ryan Pressly to Houston for Alcala and Celestino. That one is never going to balance out for the Twins.
  5. arby58
    For his considerable talents, Lewis has played a grand total 70 MLB games over two years. He'll be 25 next year, meaning they have him locked up until age 30. There were lots of concerns expressed that Correa, at 29 was entering into decline this year - and his injury issues at the same age were certainly no worse than Lewis. Let's see him make it through at least one full season (remember that Buxton guy?) before talking long range extensions.
  6. arby58
    Also known as recency bias.
  7. arby58
    58 games and 217 at bats isn't enough to get you team MVP. Yes, he was great when he played, but you need to play more than approximately one-third of the season.
  8. arby58
    Kepler was second in at bats, 1st in runs scored, home runs, RBIs and total bases. His WAR was more than double Correa's. I'm glad we have a very good shortstop, but Kepler had better offensive production.
  9. arby58
    Gray and Lopez both had excellent years, but it's rare for a pitcher to win league MVP, and I think the same reasoning should apply to a team MVP. Throwing out Ohtani, since he didn't win MVP solely on pitching, you have to go back to 2014 to find a pitcher winning league MVP - Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers. His was a beast of a year - 21-3 record, 1.77 ERA, 198 innings pitched, 238 strikeouts. Prior to that, you have to go back to Justin Verlander in 2011, when he went 24-5, 2.40 ERA, pitched 251 innings with 250 strikeouts. Prior to that, you go all the way back to 1992! So, 41 years, 82 MVPs and 3 were pitchers. The fact that both Gray and Lopez got top votes suggests to me they were more of a 'tandem' MVP - and really it could have gone to the starting pitching as a whole. Granted, no Twin had a huge offensive year (or defensive for that matter - probably no Gold Glovers for this season), but Max Kepler was productive and huge in the second half of the year. He would have been my first place vote.
  10. arby58
    It would be great to have Lopez, Gray, Ryan, and Ober - and then decide whether to make Paddock or Varland the fifth starter and the other a high impact arm out of the bullpen. I suspect Gray is gone and the remaining five will be the starting rotation at the beginning of 2024.
  11. arby58
    Jeffers would be a good choice as well (I think the two of them are the Twins MVPs for the year), but Jeffers was part of a catching tandem and really only had about half of a year's at bats (286) and games played (92). Kepler had 438 at bats in 128 games.
  12. arby58
    I think of 'most improved' as a player who was not yet established at the MLB level who 'improves' and establishes himself. To me, that would be Castro. Kepler was already an established big league player. From my perspective, he would be a great choice for 'Comeback Player of the Year' - although that often (but not always) goes to an established player who comes back from a major injury (in that case, Maeda would have a claim).
  13. arby58
    Agreed - it reminded me of the 'Jeter play' as one few shortstops would make. Correa had a down year offensively - it happens to most every player at some point - but I feel a lot more confident in the Twins defense with him at SS.
  14. arby58
    Agree. One of the advantages of being a relief pitcher is you can often get by with just two plus pitches (or even one if you are a certain first ballot unanimous pick for the HOF reliever). As you note, Duran has three.
  15. arby58
    Varland, Stewart, and Paddock all can 'bring it' in the upper 90s MPH. Maeda gives them the 'crafty veteran' guile. Don't forget about Pagan and Thielbar, who have been pretty solid all year long. Plus, Jax appears to be coming out of the funk he was in for awhile. This is a deep group.
  16. arby58
    Sure, but Rivera was more just 'an elite closer' - he was a first ballot, unanimous selection to the MLB Hall of Fame.
  17. arby58
    Well, it's three batters or the end of an inning. I can see a situational need for two left-handed relief pitchers, particularly since Thielbar has frequently been used for less than an inning. Of his 33 appearances, 5 were for 1/3rd of an inning and4 were for 2/3rds. the most he's pitched were 1 1/3 innings on three occasions, but none since early August.
  18. arby58
    If Maeda starts game three (and I'm slightly leaning in that direction as well), then I would leave Ryan off and add Funderburk. Only one lefty in the pen is a problem, and expecting Ryan to take on a relief role that he has not prepped for is a risky move in the play-offs. Varland has adjusted to it, but he's had time to do so, which isn't the case with Ryan. Given how things are 'progressing' (not), I'm pessimistic about Buxton being available in round one. In that case, I'd probably sub in Luplow for a right handed bat.
  19. arby58
    Puckett is in the HOF, sure, although if you are looking at career stats, his are skimpy for the HOF because of the eye issue (career WAR of 51.2). OTOH, Alan Trammel is in the HOF, and his career WAR was 70.6. Lou Whitaker probably deserves to be in the HOF, with a WAR of 75.9. It's odd that you want to compare 'old Darrell Evans' but look at the careers of guys like Gaetti, Hrbek and Brunansky. Evans had a great year in 1987 - scored 95 runs (pretty good for an 'old' guy), 34 HRs, 99 RBIs and an OPS of .880. The only Twins player with a higher OPS was Puckett's .900. Besides, if you want to talk careers, Evans' WAR was 58.7. For comparison, Gaetti was 42.1, Hrbek 38.0, Gagne 26.3, and Brunansky 22.0. Chet Lemon handled center field pretty well for them, with 75 runs scored, 20 HRs, 75 RBI and a .857 OPS. Interestingly, his career WAR, 55.6, was higher than Puckett's. The Detroit Tigers were a clearly better team - I've posted before the Twins were well below average in team ERA and below average in runs scored. They got hot at the right moment, but it wasn't because their players were, career-wise, so much better than the Tigers.
  20. arby58
    I'm not entirely convinced that Ryan will be the third starting pitcher. Maeda has looked good (and thrown around 100 pitches) in recent appearances and had a 2.82 ERA over 4 starts in September. Plus, if the opponent is Seattle, he was really good in consecutive starts against them (both Twins wins) going 6 1/3 innings in both, 1 and 2 earned runs 8 and 9 strikeouts, 2 and 0 walks. Ryan had a tough start last time out versus the Reds, but he pitched well in his previous three starts against Texas, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. Basically because of the Reds start, his ERA over 4 September starts is 4.12. I'm not saying the third starter won't be Ryan, but I don't think it's a slam dunk either.
  21. arby58
    They've had some other recent successful reclamation projects - Caleb Thielbar for one. If Brock Stewart can come back with form similar to when he went on the IL, that would be another.
  22. arby58
    He's been valuable, but MOST valuable? I suspect part of why Dan Gladden likes him is he plays the game with the same abandon that Dan did. Being a 'plug and player' adds value, for sure, and he's come on of late, but the statistics are pretty similar to Julien's. Castro, in 336 at bats, has scored 55 runs, hit 9 HRs, driven in 34 runs and has an OPS of .735. Julien, in 310 at bats, has also scored the same 55 runs, has 11 HRs, driven in 2 more at 36, and has a much higher .836 OPS. Granted, Castro leads the team by far in stolen bases, with 32, and that helps offset the lower OPS in my way of thinking. Really, the MVP to me is Max Kepler - and boy, is that a surprise. Besides playing excellent defense, in 414 at bats, he has scored 64 runs, has 22 HRs, 60 RBIs and a .798 OPS. Unlike a lot of Twins players, he has been available most days and has the second most at bats on the team.
  23. arby58
    That is just false, plain and simple. The Twins are nine games over .500 with 81 wins at the moment - of the 30 MLB teams, there are 21 teams with fewer wins.
  24. arby58
    Well, they sure have the right three teams remaining to run the table. Unlikely, but stranger things have happened. I'm inclined to think they go 6-3 the rest of the way, but if they are 5-1 heading into Colorado, they just might get to 8-1.
  25. arby58
    This team is starting to remind me of Philadelphia last year - the Phillies won 87 games and made it to the World Series by getting hot at the right time. The interesting thing is the Twins are doing it with contributions up and down the line. Really the only stats where they have players among the MLB leaders are strikeouts (Lopez) and ERA (Gray). Oh, yeah, and grand slams (Lewis). It's a different player most games, with the rookies really showing up, veterans Kepler and Polanco re-emerging, and Willi Castro looking like a primo Swiss army knife.
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