arby58

I think the 'lack of run support' argument is overblown. Of MLB pitchers with at least 15 starts this year, there are 17 with less average run support than Gray. If you want to take pity on somebody, try Logan Webb - he's 14-17 on the year with an ERA of 3.45. Unfortunately, his average run support is 3.19 runs a game.

The claims for Gray over Cole are pretty esoteric. I 'get' all the sabermetrics stuff and rely on it from time to time. That said, Cole leads Gray in every 'headline' stat - ERA (Cole 1st, Gray 2nd), wins (Cole 5th, Gray 33rd) innings pitched (Cole 1st, Gray 9th), strike outs (Cole 3rd, Gray 12th). It's not even a close call, and the 'east coast bias' is irrelevant.

He had 162 at bats with the Twins this year, which worked out to a WAR of 0.0. More at bats doesn't necessarily translate into better results. He's had 582 at bats in his career, and his OPS+ is 94 - which suggests he is what he is, a fringe MLB player. He's not a kid anymore either.

Kepler and Polanco have been important parts of the offense when healthy. Kepler is a 'for sure' pick-up ($10 million salary, $17 million value this year, and he plays good defense), Polanco probably depends on injury concerns. While Gray has been an important part of their starting rotation, he is not worth two strong bats in the starting line-up (Larnach this year has a negative WAR, so he shouldn't really factor into this discussion).

This is just speculation, but sometimes writers sprinkle in a little levity to keep things from becoming pedantic (as statistics sometimes do). My suggestion (as I believe the author did) would be to lighten up.

Lee hasn't demonstrated the power you'd like at third base - Lewis is a better fit. Miranda is also not a particularly good defensive player (at first or third), so he is going to have to hit (and a lot) to be more than a platoon player - he does have the advantage of being a right handed hitter in a Twins system that is more loaded on the left hand side of the plate. That said, Lewis and Correa are right handed and Lee is a switch hitter. Miranda may have to go to first base (where he didn't look great) to find a position other than DH (where Julien and/or Buxton also reside, at least at the moment).

A pitcher who is sent down to the minor leagues cannot be recalled for 15 days, unless they are called up to be the 27th player for a doubleheader or they replace a pitcher who was placed on the injured list. It's unlikely they were intending to call him up for one two-inning appearance and then return him to St. Paul.

Getting to third with one out significantly increases the chances of scoring, since the infield has to come in, a sacrifice fly now scores the run, as would a wild pitch. It's not a 'no brainer' to stay on second.

Given that they have the second easiest schedule remaining in MLB, I think suggesting they will have a losing record the rest of the way is overly negative. I'd forecast 85 or 86 wins.

Given how 'inept' many find him, it's amazing he has a .526 winning percentage as a manager. Must be a lot of inept managers in MLB.

Agreed, plus he didn't score nearly the number of runs (84) as Rod or Harmon, That was also the 'rabbit ball' year, and you have to discount that performance at least a little bit.

The funny thing is the year Carew stole home 7 times was 1969 - Harmon's big year. Carew had 'younger' legs back then, although he always had the element of speed to his game. In 1969, Killebrew struck out 84 times - given the 145 walks, that's a pretty impressive ratio. Carew struck out less but also did not draw as many walks (in 1977, 55 strikeouts and 69 walks).

Given that (if they pick up his option) he is a free agent at the end of the year, I doubt his trade value will be particularly high. He will also be 31 before the start of the 2024 season. As for a free agent, I highly doubt they will find a RF with similar stats for $9 million or less (he will make $10 million, but if they buy him out it will cost them $1 million, which nets to $9 million available for a similar/better player). While Wallner looks promising, Larnach has done nothing of note this year that would cause the front office to part ways with Kepler when they have a team friendly contract for a proven MLB player.

I'm pretty confident the Twins will pick up his option. Even with a slow start, he has 20 HRs, a .775 OPS and 1.3 WAR. If he maintains that level of production the rest of the season, picking him up will be a no-brainer.

You make a strong case for Mauer - although his OPS+ was slightly lower than Carew's and the description was greatest offensive season, so playing catcher gets no additional credit. Carew was also a very good baserunner(something neither Joe or Harmon ever was), and he had 23 stolen bases that year. It's a shame Morneau's 2010 season was only half a season - if he had put up similar numbers in the second half to the first 81 games (53 runs, 18 HRs, 56 RBIs, 1.055 OPS), it might have been the greatest season.

Yeah, I was referring to challenged by a Twin. Brett was one of those players you hated to play against but appreciated him nonetheless. Cabrera is like that as well.

The Twins arrived in Minnesota in 1960, and I have been a close follower since about 1967. As a kid, I was a huge Harmon Killebrew fan and attended many games where his home runs were the highlight of the day. I also got to see one of the great on-base hitting machines of that era, Rod Carew. They were far different players, but they produced, in my opinion, the two greatest offensive seasons in Twins history, and both were named American League MVP for them - Killebrew in 1969, and Carew in 1977. What is interesting about those two seasons is how different they were, in terms of the statistics where they excelled - and yet how close they came in a statistic that I believe captures the value of both getting on base and doing it in an impactful way - OPS. For comparison purposes, those grand seasons result in what is, statistically speaking, pretty much a dead heat: Carew's OPS was 1.019, and Killebrew's was 1.011. So, who had the better season? Carew put up an other-worldly batting average - .388. He also led the league - by a mile - in runs scored, with 128. Unlike most years, he also drove in 100 runs and hit 14 home runs. His .570 slugging percentage was, by far the best of his career. He also had an incredible OPS+ of 178. The MVP balloting was interesting: Carew was first on only 12 of 28 ballots. Second was Al Cowens of KC, who had an OPS of .885 and scored 30 less runs while hitting .312 with 23 HR and 112 RBI. He got 4 first place votes - how that is even possible must relate to the fact that the Royals won 102 games, the most in the AL that year. The smattering of other first place votes suggests to me that the voters still favored 'headline stats' like HR and RBI, even in the face of clearly superior overall results. As for Killebrew, he never hit for average like Carew. In fact, his highest batting average in a full season was .288. However, he did hit 573 home runs and drove in 1,584 RBI. It is notable that his lifetime OPS was .884, and his OPS+ 143. Carew's numbers were .822 and 131. That said, this isn't about career, it is about the year. In 1969, Killebrew tied his career mark in HRs with 49 and set his mark with 140 RBIs. What set the season apart was the fact he also drew a league leading 145 walks. Even though his batting average was just .276, he had a .427 OBP. It wasn't Carew's .449, but it wasn't that far off. Killebrew was a much more clear-cut winner for the AL MVP that year, with 16 first place votes, while the second place finisher, Boog Powell, had 6. It's notable that the 1969 Orioles won 109 games and their division, while the Twins won 97 and their division - and the Orioles dispatched the Twins in three straight before losing the World Series in 5 games to the Mets. I have a hard time choosing between the two. Carew was a hit or two everyday, and that year his hits were more impactful than most years. Killebrew hit home runs and drove in runs at the highest level, and he also got on base a lot. That said, Carew still had a (slightly) higher OPS. I watched both seasons very closely. I think Carew's flirting with .400 - in a way that hasn't really been challenged since - gives him a slight nod here. That said, it is very slight.

I agree that, based on performance to date, Duran should be number one. Yes, a bit of a rough patch of late, but he's been a top performer for the Twins in both 2022 and 2023. After that, you can make a case for just about any combination of Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and Kirilloff, given that they have some positive MLB experience and are with the Twins at present. Of course, Lewis and Kirilloff have been injury prone, Julien doesn't have a position where he is adequate defensively, and Wallner strikes out a lot and has a very small MLB sample size. With Lee, it's pure potential, and, as the youngest on the list, I wouldn't necessarily drop him that far - given some of the shortcomings of others. So, Duran is 1, and I'd be fine with slotting everybody else, including Lee, in the same order as here after the Duran adjustment.

It takes different skills. It's nice if you're left-handed (Kirilloff is). It's nice if you're tall (Gallo is 6'5" and Kirilloff is two inches taller than Julien at 6'2"). Julien isn't either of those. Then it becomes hands, footwork, practice. Nothing suggests Julien is a great fielder - at any position.

Probably right. His career earnings through 2023 are roughly $63 million.

If he can't even make it out of Triple A for the Twins, his trade value is likely pretty meagre. My guess is the Twins still hope he'll catch lightning in a bottle, at least for another year or so. He's still relatively young (he's still 2 years younger than the average Triple A player).

The point of wRc+ is to normalize statistics for the ballpark. While a K is a K everywhere, a fly out versus a home run is definitely different with, say, the short right field porch at Yankee Field versus the pretty high wall at Target Field. Once you take that into consideration, differences in OPS start to make sense, which is why Gallo, even with his flaws, gets to league average. If he played half his games this year at Yankee Field, no doubt the batting average (and number of home runs) would be higher.

You're right, Larnach, in three seasons, has only accumulated 669 plate appearances - and the most of any year was his first year, 2021. He will probably suffer from 'corner outfield glut syndrome.' Given his season this year, the Twins are likely to pick up Kepler's option, so he's in right field. If Wallner is 'the real deal' he is probably in left field. Larnach is definitely not a center fielder. It doesn't help his cause that all three of these are left handed hitters.

The league average OPS in 2023 is .733, and Gallo is at .726. He hits balls out of the ballpark, and he plays half his games in Target Field, where there aren't many cheap home runs to right field. wRC+ takes these ballpark factors into account.

Well Ober and Jax are having nice years, Balazovic is finally looking promising, and Varland has had his moments.