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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Well, it's three batters or the end of an inning. I can see a situational need for two left-handed relief pitchers, particularly since Thielbar has frequently been used for less than an inning. Of his 33 appearances, 5 were for 1/3rd of an inning and4 were for 2/3rds. the most he's pitched were 1 1/3 innings on three occasions, but none since early August.
  2. arby58
    If Maeda starts game three (and I'm slightly leaning in that direction as well), then I would leave Ryan off and add Funderburk. Only one lefty in the pen is a problem, and expecting Ryan to take on a relief role that he has not prepped for is a risky move in the play-offs. Varland has adjusted to it, but he's had time to do so, which isn't the case with Ryan. Given how things are 'progressing' (not), I'm pessimistic about Buxton being available in round one. In that case, I'd probably sub in Luplow for a right handed bat.
  3. arby58
    Puckett is in the HOF, sure, although if you are looking at career stats, his are skimpy for the HOF because of the eye issue (career WAR of 51.2). OTOH, Alan Trammel is in the HOF, and his career WAR was 70.6. Lou Whitaker probably deserves to be in the HOF, with a WAR of 75.9. It's odd that you want to compare 'old Darrell Evans' but look at the careers of guys like Gaetti, Hrbek and Brunansky. Evans had a great year in 1987 - scored 95 runs (pretty good for an 'old' guy), 34 HRs, 99 RBIs and an OPS of .880. The only Twins player with a higher OPS was Puckett's .900. Besides, if you want to talk careers, Evans' WAR was 58.7. For comparison, Gaetti was 42.1, Hrbek 38.0, Gagne 26.3, and Brunansky 22.0. Chet Lemon handled center field pretty well for them, with 75 runs scored, 20 HRs, 75 RBI and a .857 OPS. Interestingly, his career WAR, 55.6, was higher than Puckett's. The Detroit Tigers were a clearly better team - I've posted before the Twins were well below average in team ERA and below average in runs scored. They got hot at the right moment, but it wasn't because their players were, career-wise, so much better than the Tigers.
  4. arby58
    I'm not entirely convinced that Ryan will be the third starting pitcher. Maeda has looked good (and thrown around 100 pitches) in recent appearances and had a 2.82 ERA over 4 starts in September. Plus, if the opponent is Seattle, he was really good in consecutive starts against them (both Twins wins) going 6 1/3 innings in both, 1 and 2 earned runs 8 and 9 strikeouts, 2 and 0 walks. Ryan had a tough start last time out versus the Reds, but he pitched well in his previous three starts against Texas, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. Basically because of the Reds start, his ERA over 4 September starts is 4.12. I'm not saying the third starter won't be Ryan, but I don't think it's a slam dunk either.
  5. arby58
    They've had some other recent successful reclamation projects - Caleb Thielbar for one. If Brock Stewart can come back with form similar to when he went on the IL, that would be another.
  6. arby58
    He's been valuable, but MOST valuable? I suspect part of why Dan Gladden likes him is he plays the game with the same abandon that Dan did. Being a 'plug and player' adds value, for sure, and he's come on of late, but the statistics are pretty similar to Julien's. Castro, in 336 at bats, has scored 55 runs, hit 9 HRs, driven in 34 runs and has an OPS of .735. Julien, in 310 at bats, has also scored the same 55 runs, has 11 HRs, driven in 2 more at 36, and has a much higher .836 OPS. Granted, Castro leads the team by far in stolen bases, with 32, and that helps offset the lower OPS in my way of thinking. Really, the MVP to me is Max Kepler - and boy, is that a surprise. Besides playing excellent defense, in 414 at bats, he has scored 64 runs, has 22 HRs, 60 RBIs and a .798 OPS. Unlike a lot of Twins players, he has been available most days and has the second most at bats on the team.
  7. arby58
    That is just false, plain and simple. The Twins are nine games over .500 with 81 wins at the moment - of the 30 MLB teams, there are 21 teams with fewer wins.
  8. arby58
    Well, they sure have the right three teams remaining to run the table. Unlikely, but stranger things have happened. I'm inclined to think they go 6-3 the rest of the way, but if they are 5-1 heading into Colorado, they just might get to 8-1.
  9. arby58
    This team is starting to remind me of Philadelphia last year - the Phillies won 87 games and made it to the World Series by getting hot at the right time. The interesting thing is the Twins are doing it with contributions up and down the line. Really the only stats where they have players among the MLB leaders are strikeouts (Lopez) and ERA (Gray). Oh, yeah, and grand slams (Lewis). It's a different player most games, with the rookies really showing up, veterans Kepler and Polanco re-emerging, and Willi Castro looking like a primo Swiss army knife.
  10. arby58
    I think the 'lack of run support' argument is overblown. Of MLB pitchers with at least 15 starts this year, there are 17 with less average run support than Gray. If you want to take pity on somebody, try Logan Webb - he's 14-17 on the year with an ERA of 3.45. Unfortunately, his average run support is 3.19 runs a game.
  11. arby58
    The claims for Gray over Cole are pretty esoteric. I 'get' all the sabermetrics stuff and rely on it from time to time. That said, Cole leads Gray in every 'headline' stat - ERA (Cole 1st, Gray 2nd), wins (Cole 5th, Gray 33rd) innings pitched (Cole 1st, Gray 9th), strike outs (Cole 3rd, Gray 12th). It's not even a close call, and the 'east coast bias' is irrelevant.
  12. arby58
    He had 162 at bats with the Twins this year, which worked out to a WAR of 0.0. More at bats doesn't necessarily translate into better results. He's had 582 at bats in his career, and his OPS+ is 94 - which suggests he is what he is, a fringe MLB player. He's not a kid anymore either.
  13. arby58
    Kepler and Polanco have been important parts of the offense when healthy. Kepler is a 'for sure' pick-up ($10 million salary, $17 million value this year, and he plays good defense), Polanco probably depends on injury concerns. While Gray has been an important part of their starting rotation, he is not worth two strong bats in the starting line-up (Larnach this year has a negative WAR, so he shouldn't really factor into this discussion).
  14. arby58
    This is just speculation, but sometimes writers sprinkle in a little levity to keep things from becoming pedantic (as statistics sometimes do). My suggestion (as I believe the author did) would be to lighten up.
  15. arby58
    Lee hasn't demonstrated the power you'd like at third base - Lewis is a better fit. Miranda is also not a particularly good defensive player (at first or third), so he is going to have to hit (and a lot) to be more than a platoon player - he does have the advantage of being a right handed hitter in a Twins system that is more loaded on the left hand side of the plate. That said, Lewis and Correa are right handed and Lee is a switch hitter. Miranda may have to go to first base (where he didn't look great) to find a position other than DH (where Julien and/or Buxton also reside, at least at the moment).
  16. arby58
    A pitcher who is sent down to the minor leagues cannot be recalled for 15 days, unless they are called up to be the 27th player for a doubleheader or they replace a pitcher who was placed on the injured list. It's unlikely they were intending to call him up for one two-inning appearance and then return him to St. Paul.
  17. arby58
    Getting to third with one out significantly increases the chances of scoring, since the infield has to come in, a sacrifice fly now scores the run, as would a wild pitch. It's not a 'no brainer' to stay on second.
  18. arby58
    Given that they have the second easiest schedule remaining in MLB, I think suggesting they will have a losing record the rest of the way is overly negative. I'd forecast 85 or 86 wins.
  19. arby58
    Given how 'inept' many find him, it's amazing he has a .526 winning percentage as a manager. Must be a lot of inept managers in MLB.
  20. arby58
    Agreed, plus he didn't score nearly the number of runs (84) as Rod or Harmon, That was also the 'rabbit ball' year, and you have to discount that performance at least a little bit.
  21. arby58
    The funny thing is the year Carew stole home 7 times was 1969 - Harmon's big year. Carew had 'younger' legs back then, although he always had the element of speed to his game. In 1969, Killebrew struck out 84 times - given the 145 walks, that's a pretty impressive ratio. Carew struck out less but also did not draw as many walks (in 1977, 55 strikeouts and 69 walks).
  22. arby58
    Given that (if they pick up his option) he is a free agent at the end of the year, I doubt his trade value will be particularly high. He will also be 31 before the start of the 2024 season. As for a free agent, I highly doubt they will find a RF with similar stats for $9 million or less (he will make $10 million, but if they buy him out it will cost them $1 million, which nets to $9 million available for a similar/better player). While Wallner looks promising, Larnach has done nothing of note this year that would cause the front office to part ways with Kepler when they have a team friendly contract for a proven MLB player.
  23. arby58
    I'm pretty confident the Twins will pick up his option. Even with a slow start, he has 20 HRs, a .775 OPS and 1.3 WAR. If he maintains that level of production the rest of the season, picking him up will be a no-brainer.
  24. arby58
    You make a strong case for Mauer - although his OPS+ was slightly lower than Carew's and the description was greatest offensive season, so playing catcher gets no additional credit. Carew was also a very good baserunner(something neither Joe or Harmon ever was), and he had 23 stolen bases that year. It's a shame Morneau's 2010 season was only half a season - if he had put up similar numbers in the second half to the first 81 games (53 runs, 18 HRs, 56 RBIs, 1.055 OPS), it might have been the greatest season.
  25. arby58
    Yeah, I was referring to challenged by a Twin. Brett was one of those players you hated to play against but appreciated him nonetheless. Cabrera is like that as well.
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