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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    That's exaggerating Gibson's profile. Other than his rookie season, he hasn't ever had a 5.5 ERA. Given that he was 15-9 last year, it's also not the case that 'generally' the Orioles lost when he started.
  2. arby58
    I suppose it depends on what a team values. Gibson will absolutely eat innings - 192 in 2023, 168 the year before., and 182 the year before that. He's a pretty dependable back of the rotation guy, even at 36 years of age. Gibson's probably more dependable but Maeda has more upside.
  3. arby58
    Jose Altuve's range factor/9 innings was 3.4 last year; Julien's was 3.67. The league average was 4.06. Sounds like that Altuve guy won't be playing second base anymore.
  4. arby58
    Switch hitters are nice to have, but if there is a marked difference in performance on opposite sides of the plate, it's not such a great advantage. Last year, Lee had 458 ABs against RHP and an OPS of .860 with 14 home runs - that's good. He had 109 ABs against LHP and a .603 OPS with 2 HRs - not so good. He'll need to improve those numbers against LHPs for his switch hitting to be considered a material asset.
  5. arby58
    The Sonny Gray trade worked out ok - the Twins got 2 strong years of starting pitching for an 18 year old pitcher who was just getting to AA at the end of last year. Granted, he throws 100 mph, but his minor league performance to date hasn't exactly been lights out. Plus the Twins will likely get a decent draft pick when Gray signs elsewhere. Gray was a decent pitcher coming off a so-so year when the Twins traded for him, and maybe that's the approach they take this year - find a pitcher where they like the peripherals, even if the results the last year or so weren't earth shattering.
  6. arby58
    The preference for Lee over Julien is not based on comparable offensive metrics. First, Julien is the one with MLB experience and put up a nice 2.6 WAR IN 338 AB for the Twins, with an .839 OPS and a 130 OPS+. He also had 170 ABs at AAA, with a .932 OPS. Lee split time between AA and AAA last year and had an .808 OPS. Julien played at AA the prior year and had a .931 OPS. Lee has more defensive ability and positional flexibility, to be sure - but the offensive statistics favor Julien. The claim that he has somehow 'peaked' after 338 MLB ABs is, given his history in the major and minor leagues, baffling.
  7. arby58
    I'm not so sure Seattle would want starting pitching back - or why trade a sure thing starting pitcher in the first place? I'm more inclined to think they would want two position players. If that is the case, Jenkins is untouchable, and Rodriguez strikes me as having huge upside potential. After that, it starts getting negotiable.
  8. arby58
    Agree on Lee. He may well become a very good player, but Julien showed that he was already close to that level - and his performance was at the MLB level. If you take Julien's 338 at bats, 60 runs, and 16 home runs and project it over 500 at bats, you get 89 runs scored and 24 home runs - pretty good for a lead-off hitter who had an .839 OPS and 130 OPS+. Julien looks like the 2B, Correa is at SS and Lewis at 3B. Granted, there are always concerns about depth, but if Lee and another decent prospect (much as I like Severino, he might be the other piece) get you there for a #2 starting pitcher? I'd do it.
  9. arby58
    The difference with Ober is the players who they chose instead of him were legitimately better choices. There is no 'legitimate' rationale for choosing Gordon over Castro. Besides, the point is to keep players on the MLB roster who you believe can best help you win games. Unless Gordon has a stratospheric spring training, he hasn't proven he's better than Castro for any of the five baseball tools.
  10. arby58
    Leverage decreases as you approach the fulcrum. Every team will know that Gordon is out of options, so thinking you'll just wait until late in spring training to decide means you are left with the options of keeping him on the roster or waiving him. If there is something to get for him, you have to do it sooner rather than later.
  11. arby58
    It's still cute by half. You don't do this to players who performed well for you the prior year. It creates ill will you do not need with players you are going to need.
  12. arby58
    I don't understand the business logic of cutting loose a player who plays the same set of positions, is faster, better defensively, hits for more power, and had a far better year than Gordon last year. This strikes me as too cute by half.
  13. arby58
    The Twins have lots of players with positional flexibility. The issue is whether you need two 'Swiss Army Knife' players. If Gordon were particularly good at any one thing, maybe - but he's not particularly fast, doesn't have a strong arm, isn't going to hit for power, and was really poor offensively last year before he got hurt. I'm not seeing the case for him making a 26 man roster.
  14. arby58
    Gordon was hitting .176 with a .503 OPS through 91 at bats before the broken bone - it's not as if he was assured of a roster spot. Yes, he had a nice 2022, but he's got 696 career at bats, a .685 OPS and a 92 OPS+. I wouldn't expect much in return for him but agree they might as well see what they can get.
  15. arby58
    If you're going to include Julien, you need to include Lewis as well - IF he can stay healthy, he looks like the Twins number 3 hitter in the lineup, maybe until Jenkins displaces him.
  16. arby58
    If they keep Julien, they may as well trade Lee - only so much infield positions to go around, unless they decide to revisit the 'Lewis in centerfield' experiment. The advantages for Lee is he's a better defensive player (Julien's improvement notwithstanding), he's a switch hitter, and he's a couple years younger.
  17. arby58
    The only player here that would pique my interest as a GM is Rodriguez - the rest are marginal prospects/major leaguers. Miranda was hurt/ineffective last year, Larnach is a replacement player, WAR-wise. Winder, Moran, and Sands are probably the 12th or 13th pitcher on a MLB staff.
  18. arby58
    Add me to the chorus of 'why not Julien' from a trade chip perspective. On the plus side of value, he had a nice rookie year at the MLB level, so he jumps some of the players where it is conjecture as to whether they can hit MLB pitching. He also does well in the OBP area, and there is some pop to his bat. Plus, he's controllable. The downside is defense - and the Twins' log jam of players who might conceivably play 2B, which is still his natural position. That said, for a team looking for offense at that position, he should be plenty interesting as a trade chip. I would slot him at 6 as well.
  19. arby58
    They just added a power hitting bat who strikes out a lot in Yunior Severino. Yunior is younger and has put up far better numbers - and already reached Triple A this year. Severino yes, Sabato no.
  20. arby58
    The operative phrase being 'when they traded for him.' He was two years removed from being an All-Star, and the year before they traded for him he went 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA. Nobody was calling him an All-Star that year.
  21. arby58
    Martin did better at St. Paul second half of the year, but a AAA OPS under .800 doesn't scream ready for MLB. I wouldn't bet on him as the immediate answer - probably needs more time in St. Paul. Castro has looked decent in CF, although he significantly over-achieved his career averages last year. That could just be the fact that he's relatively young. I suppose between the three of them (including Buxton), you'd hope at least one pans out.
  22. arby58
    You're going to look for upside potential. Neither Lopez or Gray was an All-Star when they traded for them - although both were solid starting pitchers. Twins gave up a pitcher drafted in the high first round who threw 100 mph for Gray, which isn't chopped liver, but it isn't an All-Star position player either.IF you think Brooks Lee is ready and/or Polanco can play most days (and both are switch hitters), I'd bet Julien, who is sort of a young Arraez, could bring you back a (possible future All Star) pitcher with upside.
  23. arby58
    It costs a lot more to buy a free agent than to trade for one. Everybody here ignores the dollar side of the equation (related to a free agent), but it is real, and it limits what else the Twins can do. The Twins have been excellent at the trade approach to starting pitching, why change now?
  24. arby58
    I (barely) remember the days with Halsey Hall as the color commentator and Ray Scott doing play-by-play (and, of course, the Hamm's bear) on WTCN television.
  25. arby58
    Joe Ryan isn't a big problem, granted, but the question is whether you can rely on him in a really big game. Maybe the groin injury is the story of his second half of 2023, but it is telling that he has been trying to expand his pitch repertoire: the author is right, a starting pitcher throws a lot of pitches, so batters have a better opportunity to adjust, even if that one pitch is stellar. The key for Ryan is making one of those other pitches a plus pitch. If he can, maybe he could be more than a #3-ish starter. If not, it's highly doubtful.
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