arby58

The funny thing is the year Carew stole home 7 times was 1969 - Harmon's big year. Carew had 'younger' legs back then, although he always had the element of speed to his game. In 1969, Killebrew struck out 84 times - given the 145 walks, that's a pretty impressive ratio. Carew struck out less but also did not draw as many walks (in 1977, 55 strikeouts and 69 walks).

Given that (if they pick up his option) he is a free agent at the end of the year, I doubt his trade value will be particularly high. He will also be 31 before the start of the 2024 season. As for a free agent, I highly doubt they will find a RF with similar stats for $9 million or less (he will make $10 million, but if they buy him out it will cost them $1 million, which nets to $9 million available for a similar/better player). While Wallner looks promising, Larnach has done nothing of note this year that would cause the front office to part ways with Kepler when they have a team friendly contract for a proven MLB player.

I'm pretty confident the Twins will pick up his option. Even with a slow start, he has 20 HRs, a .775 OPS and 1.3 WAR. If he maintains that level of production the rest of the season, picking him up will be a no-brainer.

You make a strong case for Mauer - although his OPS+ was slightly lower than Carew's and the description was greatest offensive season, so playing catcher gets no additional credit. Carew was also a very good baserunner(something neither Joe or Harmon ever was), and he had 23 stolen bases that year. It's a shame Morneau's 2010 season was only half a season - if he had put up similar numbers in the second half to the first 81 games (53 runs, 18 HRs, 56 RBIs, 1.055 OPS), it might have been the greatest season.

Yeah, I was referring to challenged by a Twin. Brett was one of those players you hated to play against but appreciated him nonetheless. Cabrera is like that as well.

The Twins arrived in Minnesota in 1960, and I have been a close follower since about 1967. As a kid, I was a huge Harmon Killebrew fan and attended many games where his home runs were the highlight of the day. I also got to see one of the great on-base hitting machines of that era, Rod Carew. They were far different players, but they produced, in my opinion, the two greatest offensive seasons in Twins history, and both were named American League MVP for them - Killebrew in 1969, and Carew in 1977. What is interesting about those two seasons is how different they were, in terms of the statistics where they excelled - and yet how close they came in a statistic that I believe captures the value of both getting on base and doing it in an impactful way - OPS. For comparison purposes, those grand seasons result in what is, statistically speaking, pretty much a dead heat: Carew's OPS was 1.019, and Killebrew's was 1.011. So, who had the better season? Carew put up an other-worldly batting average - .388. He also led the league - by a mile - in runs scored, with 128. Unlike most years, he also drove in 100 runs and hit 14 home runs. His .570 slugging percentage was, by far the best of his career. He also had an incredible OPS+ of 178. The MVP balloting was interesting: Carew was first on only 12 of 28 ballots. Second was Al Cowens of KC, who had an OPS of .885 and scored 30 less runs while hitting .312 with 23 HR and 112 RBI. He got 4 first place votes - how that is even possible must relate to the fact that the Royals won 102 games, the most in the AL that year. The smattering of other first place votes suggests to me that the voters still favored 'headline stats' like HR and RBI, even in the face of clearly superior overall results. As for Killebrew, he never hit for average like Carew. In fact, his highest batting average in a full season was .288. However, he did hit 573 home runs and drove in 1,584 RBI. It is notable that his lifetime OPS was .884, and his OPS+ 143. Carew's numbers were .822 and 131. That said, this isn't about career, it is about the year. In 1969, Killebrew tied his career mark in HRs with 49 and set his mark with 140 RBIs. What set the season apart was the fact he also drew a league leading 145 walks. Even though his batting average was just .276, he had a .427 OBP. It wasn't Carew's .449, but it wasn't that far off. Killebrew was a much more clear-cut winner for the AL MVP that year, with 16 first place votes, while the second place finisher, Boog Powell, had 6. It's notable that the 1969 Orioles won 109 games and their division, while the Twins won 97 and their division - and the Orioles dispatched the Twins in three straight before losing the World Series in 5 games to the Mets. I have a hard time choosing between the two. Carew was a hit or two everyday, and that year his hits were more impactful than most years. Killebrew hit home runs and drove in runs at the highest level, and he also got on base a lot. That said, Carew still had a (slightly) higher OPS. I watched both seasons very closely. I think Carew's flirting with .400 - in a way that hasn't really been challenged since - gives him a slight nod here. That said, it is very slight.

I agree that, based on performance to date, Duran should be number one. Yes, a bit of a rough patch of late, but he's been a top performer for the Twins in both 2022 and 2023. After that, you can make a case for just about any combination of Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and Kirilloff, given that they have some positive MLB experience and are with the Twins at present. Of course, Lewis and Kirilloff have been injury prone, Julien doesn't have a position where he is adequate defensively, and Wallner strikes out a lot and has a very small MLB sample size. With Lee, it's pure potential, and, as the youngest on the list, I wouldn't necessarily drop him that far - given some of the shortcomings of others. So, Duran is 1, and I'd be fine with slotting everybody else, including Lee, in the same order as here after the Duran adjustment.

It takes different skills. It's nice if you're left-handed (Kirilloff is). It's nice if you're tall (Gallo is 6'5" and Kirilloff is two inches taller than Julien at 6'2"). Julien isn't either of those. Then it becomes hands, footwork, practice. Nothing suggests Julien is a great fielder - at any position.

Probably right. His career earnings through 2023 are roughly $63 million.

If he can't even make it out of Triple A for the Twins, his trade value is likely pretty meagre. My guess is the Twins still hope he'll catch lightning in a bottle, at least for another year or so. He's still relatively young (he's still 2 years younger than the average Triple A player).

The point of wRc+ is to normalize statistics for the ballpark. While a K is a K everywhere, a fly out versus a home run is definitely different with, say, the short right field porch at Yankee Field versus the pretty high wall at Target Field. Once you take that into consideration, differences in OPS start to make sense, which is why Gallo, even with his flaws, gets to league average. If he played half his games this year at Yankee Field, no doubt the batting average (and number of home runs) would be higher.

You're right, Larnach, in three seasons, has only accumulated 669 plate appearances - and the most of any year was his first year, 2021. He will probably suffer from 'corner outfield glut syndrome.' Given his season this year, the Twins are likely to pick up Kepler's option, so he's in right field. If Wallner is 'the real deal' he is probably in left field. Larnach is definitely not a center fielder. It doesn't help his cause that all three of these are left handed hitters.

The league average OPS in 2023 is .733, and Gallo is at .726. He hits balls out of the ballpark, and he plays half his games in Target Field, where there aren't many cheap home runs to right field. wRC+ takes these ballpark factors into account.

Well Ober and Jax are having nice years, Balazovic is finally looking promising, and Varland has had his moments.

Well, that is a start at his stat line; he won 3 gold gloves as a catcher, 5 silver sluggers, 6-time all star, and besides his MVP year, he also finished 4th and 6th in the balloting in two other years.

The Twins got roundly criticized for deals last year that looked really good on paper and then did not pan out. That is the nature of trades - and those who are now criticizing the Twins for doing nothing may have criticized them for last year's moves. I tend to agree with the front office - they are likely to make the play-offs without big moves, but there isn't a lot of point in making moves to add this year, as the team isn't good enough to advance in the play-offs. That said, they are good enough to make the play-offs, and it would be short-term stupid (for its fan base and players) to trade off assets that can help them do that.

My thoughts are there is a fourth reason: they think the return of some of their injured players (besides Lewis, that includes Stewart and the recently-reactivated Thielbar) are going to give them as much boost as a trade for help.

First, you have no way of knowing if there was a market for any of these players, or if the return would be positive. Second, there is something to be said for actually making the play-offs - there are a lot of fans who go through the turnstiles every home game who would prefer they make them than not. I'd venture that both Gray and Maeda give the Twins a better chance of making the play-offs than not (and Kepler of late has been valuable as well).

You list him as a utility guy, but the Twins decided to bring him onto the roster to be their starting shortstop. Lots of guys have flexibility - are you going to refer to Kirilloff or Gallo as 'utility guys' because they can play first base or the outfield? What matters is the role the team believes they fill, and they are not going to keep four guys with no defined role.

They didn't sign Farmer as a utility guy - they signed him because they believed Correa was gone. You could say Solano was a 'utility guy' but the reality is they signed him to be a right-handed platoon player, which was situationally necessary.

How is a team 6 games over .500 with 'maybe 5-6 players of MLB talent?' That's not credible. As for keeping 'home grown talent' - there are only 40 slots, and you need to be mindful of the pipeline. Some of the players they traded away may well have been lost in the Rule 5 draft if they had kept them.

Only so many slots on the 40-man roster, and four of them aren't going to be utility guys.

I think people are seriously over-valuing the trade value of some of our corner outfielders. They're both bouncing around between AAA and the majors, and neither is exactly a complete player (or in danger of becoming one).

He's certainly proven himself more than any of these three. Why would the Cardinals be interested in another outfielder, and Miranda's season doesn't scream 'we need him' to any team. The Cardinals would ask for a much better prospect than a low minor leaguer here - probably Maya, and that isn't happening.

Taylor has the pedigree and performance. If I had to 'bet the farm' on any Twin to win a Gold Glove this year, it would be him.