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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Sooner or later there is going to have to be a decision on who plays regularly and where. Lee is a bit of the odd man out at the moment, IF Julien is seen as the regular 2B and Correa and Lewis are at SS and 3B. While most of the scouts would agree with the first three in the pecking order for the Twins, I suspect that Lee could wind up elsewhere via trade more quickly than 1 or 3 on the list.
  2. arby58
    There's a very nice analysis of Lee at MiLB Analysis by Nick Richards. He delves into the numbers for last season and has the warning that "The scouts love him, but so do lefty pitchers. Was he really climbing out of the Triple-A crater, or was that noise?" He then suggests that "Brooks Lee needs to repeat Triple-A and do at the level what he did at Double-A: slowly but surely improve." He concludes with "So he will get on base and have a good BA, but his power will be only solid, and don't expect speed. A decent prospect, but not a world-changing one." That sounds about right to me. The difference between Julien and Lee is Julien isn't a prospect - he proved to be an excellent MLB hitter in 2023, with a 130 OPS+. If the Twins had a team full of 130 OPS+ hitters last year, they might have won the World Series.
  3. arby58
    I will grant you that Martin is much more 'fleet of foot' than Arraez. Still, if you mostly hit singles, you generally need at least two more constructive offensive things to happen to score a run (unless the guy behind you is a big bopper and hits a HR). You need two more singles, a single and a double or a double and a single, a stolen base and a base hit, a sacrifice and a base hit, etc. I will also grant you that Martin may steal his way into scoring position, and that is a plus - as it was with Taylor last year. We will see about Martin, but so far he looks pretty punch less and doesn't hit a high enough average to compensate for that.
  4. arby58
    If he were coming out of high school, the expectations would be lower, but he played 3 years of Division 1 college baseball. I'm not down on him, but I think Baseball Prospectus' ranking of him (52) is about right. He isn't a phenom. He needs a full year at AAA, and then we'll see. I'm a bird in the hand guy, and the bird in the hand, having done it at the MLB level (130 OPS+ last year), is Julien.
  5. arby58
    Sure, but the two are connected. If you get on base and it is mostly first base, it is a lot harder to score you from there than if you regularly hit doubles (and obviously if you hit a home run). That's part of why Arraez, for all his great batting average traits, did not land near the top of the league leaders for runs scored last year.
  6. arby58
    I have more confidence that Ober has not hit his ceiling. His height and release point make him a unique pitcher - there are very few 6'9" pitchers (more likely to be rebounders). His falling off last year was likely to be because of hitting his innings pitched ceiling, which should become less of an issue as he gets more innings pitched. Ryan is just a solid 3 starter, IMHO, until he gets his fastball percentage in high leverage situations down. There are few starting pitchers who get by on a two pitch mix, which no doubt contributes to the balls leaving the ballpark thing with him. I tend to think Varland's ceiling (throws harder, more pitch mix) is higher than Ryan's. That said, happy to hand him the ball every fifth day - but maybe not the playoffs.
  7. arby58
    People seem really high on Lee, but so far he hasn't exactly torn up the minor leagues. A combined .808 OPS last year between AA and AAA is decent, but it was .737 at AAA. Granted, he is young for that league - I fully expect him to play nearly all of 2024 at St. Paul. We'll know better then - but I tend to think his ceiling is not 'perennial All-Star.'
  8. arby58
    Several players moved up from the minors last year and made positive contributions. Obviously, that included Lewis, Julien and Wallner, but it also included Varland and Funderburk. When you add that many players in a year, it is going to dilute the 'seasoned prospects' list.
  9. arby58
    Lee hit .237 in 168 plate appearances in AAA last year. Julien hit .295 in 170 plate appearances in AAA last year. Then Julien went up to the majors and put up a 130 OPS+ in 408 plate appearances.
  10. arby58
    Yeah, there isn't much that is making the top of national lists. Baseball Prospectus is out with their top 101 for 2024 list, and only three Twins make it - Jenkins is 16, Lee is 52, and Rodriguez is 62. Ouch. By contrast, Texas has two in the top 10. Detroit has 5 on the list (including 17, 22, 24). Others in the division are even worse - KC has 1 (96), White Sox 2 (11, 78). Cleveland also has 3 (31, 37, 57). Lee's ranking suggests maybe he wouldn't garner the haul in a trade that some think he will. Of course, other rankings will differ.
  11. arby58
    Agreed. I'm more inclined to deal Lee - Julien has proved it at the MLB level, but there are those who value Lee's upside potential more (and he has more positional flexibility). Given that Correa isn't moving in the near future, that positional flexibility isn't that great for the Twins but might be for another team. That's the perfect storm to move him rather than Julien - more value to another team than what he provides to the Twins.
  12. arby58
    Julien, as a rookie, had a 130 OPS+, an .839 OPS, 2.6 WAR in just 338 ABs and was 7th in rookie of the year voting. He's hit at every level of minor league ball as well - it better be more than just a 'young, good, cheap' starting pitcher to take that bat out of the lineup for the foreseeable future.
  13. arby58
    The difference between the two is Kirilloff has proven to be a better MLB hitter. His OPS+ last year was 117, and for his career it is 104. Larnach was 98 and 95. That's above average versus below average in about the same number of at bats. The issue with Kirilloff is injuries rather than hitting ability.
  14. arby58
    I had the same hope regarding walk rate last year. We will see. His 'not figured it out yet' is why I don't believe the Twins will trade Kepler. Polanco, Farmer, maybe even one of Lee or Julien, but their outfield depth is a year away.
  15. arby58
    There is no general manager who, based on Mauer's performance behind the plate, would have contemplated moving him to right field 'just in case there are concussion issues.' The comparative advantage that Mauer offered as a decent defensive catcher and an awesome offensive one are far greater than would have been the case as a decent offensive and defensive right fielder. Besides, injuries happen at every position - and even while running the bases (hello, Justin Morneau). There is no 'tragedy of Joe Mauer' any more than there is the 'tragedy of Dale Murphy' (a dominant OUTFIELDER whose career was cut short by injuries). If we want to talk tragedies, we should talk Thurman Munson, or Roberto Clemente, or Lyman Bostock.
  16. arby58
    There isn't a lot to give you confidence that Larnach will figure it out. Besides the hitting aspect, both Kepler and Wallner are better outfielders and baserunners. On the hitting side, Larnach's career OPS+, with over 600 at bats, is 95. He's also stuck a bit in that all three (including Kepler and Wallner) are left-handed hitters, and Larnach performs abysmally against left handed pitchers (his small sample size OPS last year was .412, and for his career it is .569). He probably only gets ABs against right handed pitchers as the DH or if either of the other corner outfielders needs a day off. Sure, he hits AAA pitching well, but that doesn't seem to translate to the MLB level.
  17. arby58
    The most telling statistic was a 7.2 WAR in 1965, and a combined 5.4 WAR over his other 11 MLB seasons. If that isn't a one hit (defined as MLB season) wonder, it's pretty close.
  18. arby58
    It's a nice article, but the Twins didn't make a 'horrible trade' with Ortiz, they did something even worse - as the article notes, they just released him, which means they got nothing back from Boston. The headline should be changed.
  19. arby58
    Miranda had a bad 2023, but if it is largely because of injury, then he most certainly should fit into their plans. He played close to a full 2022, with 483 plate appearances and a 114 OPS+. Besides that, he had a monster year in AA/AAA in 2021, with a combined OPS of .973. If Brooks Lee and Austin Martin (with no big league experience and no performance at AA/AAA even close to Miranda's 2021) are in their plans, Miranda certainly should be.
  20. arby58
    One of the raps against Maurer was that he didn't play catcher long enough to be considered that for induction purposes. That is nonsense. In Mauer's career, he appeared at catcher in 921 games. He was at first in 603 games. He served as a DH in 310 games. He played catcher more than any other position. A recent article supporting Joe's election noted that from 2005-13, Mauer hit .323 with a .135 OPS+. and 43.2 WAR, or an average of 4.8 per season. It closed with "A general guideline of WAR says 5.0 in a year is an All-Star level. So Mauer was basically All-Star level for nine years as a catcher. That's plenty long enough." Welcome to Cooperstown, Joe!
  21. arby58
    Gallo led the team in strikeouts, with 142 in 282 at bats (!), so you would expect the average to go down regardless of what else happens. Some of this may not necessarily carry over from year to year. If you look at the top five teams in Ks in 2023 (Twins, Mariners, Rockies, Angels, Reds) and compare it to 2022 (Angels, Braves, Pirates, Brewers, Giants), there is only one team on both lists. I'm more interested in taking good at bats than just avoiding strikeouts. How many times have you seen the lead off batter in an inning hit a soft fly ball for an out on the first pitch? Those can be real buzz kills. Then there were times you'd watch a Julien battle for 8 or 9 pitches and then strike out (or walk). Those at bats seem more likely to be impactful on the game, as it is stressful for the pitcher and drives up his pitch count. The Yankees used to be famous for that 'grind it out' approach to hitting, and maybe the Twins can do it too.
  22. arby58
    It still will, even if their pitcher turns out well. You play baseball in the moment. Would you, as a fan, been happy if the Twins had finished second in the division last year (or even first then lost three straight in the play-offs?). Sonny Gray was second in CYA voting, and he had a great season (granted, he laid an egg in the play-offs against the Astros, but nobody is perfect). The Twins may not have made the play-offs or beaten the Blue Jays without him. Meanwhile, the pitcher in question is still in the minor leagues, and, while promising, there is no guarantee he will have two years as good as the ones Gray gave the Twins. Everything is a risk/reward calculation - and I will never fault the Twins for that trade, even if the pitcher they gave up turns into an All-Star (oh, that's right, so was Sonny).
  23. arby58
    The Sonny Gray trade worked out fine.
  24. arby58
    I agree - for all the concern about players traded away for actual major leaguers that didn't work out, there is some basic math that suggests you can't keep them all: 26 and 40.
  25. arby58
    I don't like trade one, because the OF is not where the Twins have much surplus. With both Wallner and Kepler gone, who plays on the corners? It starts looking like a black hole, offensively, and would require a full bounce back from Buxton and Larnach actually hitting for an entire MLB season. Seems unlikely. Number two probably works for both teams, IF the Twins believe Miller is for real. Number three is hard to swallow - probably for both teams. At least in this deal, you can see the Twins handling the infield (unlike the outfield in number one), as Polanco for two years at 2B (IF healthy) isn't a big worry, and maybe Severino becomes the heir apparent. Still, Julien and Lee might both be All Stars someday - would rather give up one and not both. Maybe keep one and throw in Rodriguez, Polanco, and Larnach.
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