arby58

Severino is a switch hitter - and his OPS numbers from both sides of the plate in 2023 were remarkably similar: .901 batting left, .889 batting right. If he is the real deal, no reason to platoon him.

I forgot to mention that Severino's first at bat at St. Paul was impressive - it landed 467 feet from home plate.

For all the interest in playing Brooks Lee out of position, Yunior Severino deserves more discussion. While he has primarily been a second or third baseman, he did play `first base in 15 games for St. Paul. While they are different types of hitters, they put up similarly good numbers with both spending about the same amount of time last year between AA and AAA. Lee had 39 more plate appearances, but they scored a similar number of runs (83 for Lee, 80 for Severino), and both had 84 RBIs. Lee hits far more doubles (39 versus 17) and Severino far more home runs (35 versus 16). They draw a similar number of walks (56 for Lee, 51 for Severino). Severino strikes out a lot more (173 versus 91), but his OPS is also significantly higher. I suppose a cynic would say that Severino's strike out rate makes him a natural for the Twins, but if he can replicate those power numbers . . . He's also just 23 years old (Lee is 22), so both should have promising futures for the Twins or elsewhere.

Absolutely. That said, 9 shut outs in one year? That's impressive, and, even adjusting for number of starts, is something current pitchers will never approach.

Who wouldn't love to have him - good for 40 HRS and 100+ RBIs a year. That said, it sounds like the Mets are trying to extend him, and he's represented by Scott Boros, meaning the Twins extending him would be costly. I highly doubt that one works out.

Awhile back, I was working on a post (still working on it) to identify the greatest season by a Twins starting pitcher. I still haven't entirely decided on that one, but after going through the starting pitching stats for every year since the Washington Senators became the Minnesota Twins (in other words, since 1961) there were a couple of fascinating finds - stats that I doubt will ever be surpassed. Combined Wins and Losses in a Season The Twins record for most wins in a season was Jim Kaat's 25 in 1965. Back then, there was only one Cy Young for all of MLB, and Sandy Koufax was the unanimous winner after compiling a phenomenal set of stats: 26-8 record, 2.04 ERA, 160 ERA+, 9 shutouts, and 382 strikeouts in 335.2 innings pitched. Wow. Kaat also set another mark that I doubt will be surpassed, particularly in today's baseball: along with the 25 wins, he also accumulated 13 losses, and those 38 combined results should stand the test of time. It's notable that close behind was Bert Blyleven, with 37, and Jim Perry with 36. Innings Pitched and Shutouts in a Season These records are also safe, given the specialized nature of pitching these days. For innings pitched, these days 200 is considered a full season - but the Twins have had three pitchers surpass 300 innings - Bert Blyleven had 325 in the 1973 season, Jim Kaat had 304.2 in 1966, and Dave Goltz had 303 in 1977. Nowadays, pitchers get huzzahs for just a handful of complete games, let alone shutouts, but in that 1973 season, Blyleven had 9 shutouts, far and away the best ever for a Twins pitcher. Workhorse Pitcher Season for the Ages Bert's 1973 season was phenomenal in many respects. On a 81-81 team, he went 20-17, but the other stats are eye openers (including innings pitched and shutouts, already mentioned). His 2.52 season ERA was third best ever among Twins starting pitchers (and those who knew that Camilo Pascual is first with 2.46 take a bow. Yes, Jim Kaat was 2.06 in 1972, but he only started 15 games so that doesn't count - same with strike or pandemic-shortened seasons). Speaking of complete games, Bert also had 25 that year, which is also far and away the best by a Twins pitcher. His 258 strikeouts are also the second most, trailing only Johan Santana's 265 in 2004. On top of that, his ERA+ of 156 was fifth best all time for a Twins starting pitcher. Quite a year! Best Two Combined Seasons This one could someday be overcome (give it your best shot, Pablo) but I doubt it. It is also debatable, as Frank Viola and Jim Perry both won a Cy Young and also put together another strong year. Still, this one belongs to Johan Santana. Not only did he win the Cy Young in both 2004 and 2006, he also had the two best ERA+ years, at 182(!) in 2004 and 162 in 2006. As previously mentioned, he put up the biggest strikeout total in 2004 and had an ERA of 2.61 and 2.71 in 2004 and 2006 respectively. Besides that, 20-6 and 19-6 win-loss records weren't too shabby either.

I know people point to the Houston 'professional' approach to hitting, and they were among the MLB leaders in fewest strikeouts and most runs scored. in the regular season Still, drawing conclusions about the Twins offense from that four game series is definitely an issue of small sample size. In two games so far against Texas, Houston was shut out in one game (and has scored four total runs in the two games combined), and last night struck out 10 times. Good pitching happens - particularly in the play-offs. For all the lamenting about strike outs, the Twins were 10th in MLB in runs scored, which isn't bad.

It's in there - Extend at least one young building block.

It's not trivial - not everybody's rate will go down the same, because there are players who take very few walks (and that is the predominant plate appearance that does not show up in at bats). If you're going to use a statistic, it's better to use one that is more precise in expressing what it means. Strike outs per plate appearance is far superior to per at bat.

I'd be interested in comparable trades - where a team gives up a solid starting pitcher with team control for a corner outfielder with somewhere around 300 plate appearances. Given the value placed on starting pitching, this sounds far-fetched. I'm thinking back on what it took to get Maehle from the Reds, and he didn't have that much team control and came with injury concerns.

If the K issue is so compelling for Wallner, why on earth would either team take him in return for 'a solid SP with team control?' Certainly not the Mariners, who have plenty of offense (and also strike out nearly as much as the Twins). Wallner showed a nice flash in the second half, but he is still largely unproven - not the kind of player who will get you a 'solid SP with team control.'

I appreciate that the author provides some balance to the 'to be or not to be' discussion around strike outs. It is worth noting that the two teams that had the most strike outs, Minnesota and Seattle, scored far more runs than the two teams with the least strikeouts, Cleveland and Washington. A good offense that doesn't strike out a lot can also be shut down and look pretty lame - Houston's 2-0 loss to Texas last night is an example. In the regular season, Houston was 5th in runs scored and had the 3rd fewest strikeouts. Some players are, based on what they are trying to do, going to strike out a lot. Wallner, for example, is going to rocket a fair number of balls out of the ballpark. In that respect, he is following in a long line of power hitters. Strikeouts as a percentage of at bats is not the most useful calculation. At bats needs to be replaced by plate appearances, because walks, being hit by a pitch, and sacrifice flies do not count as at bats. For a player like Julien, who walks a lot, it makes a material difference. Julien had 338 at bats but 408 plate appearances. His percentage of strike outs based on plate appearances was 31% - quite a bit different than 38%. Wallner takes walks AND gets hit by a pitch more than most. He had 254 plate appearances, and his strike out percentage based on that was also 31%.

Gordon is on the 60-day IL so not currently counting against the 40 man roster, but if, say, Lee is ready, he needs a spot. If you keep Farmer and Solano returns - along with Lewis, Julien, Polanco, and Correa, it's hard to understand why you would need more than one utility player, as most can play multiple positions. Gordon had a horrible start to the season, and if I'm thinking 'redemption tour' for the Twins, I'd look first at Miranda, who has some power, is two years younger, and could be a platoon option at first base.

This is just wrong. The Twins were tied for third for average innings pitched by starting pitchers (5.5). Only Houston and Seattle were better. The Guardians were at 5.3.

For all the complaints about the Twins offense, they were 10th of 30 teams in runs scored this season - and that, not batting average, strike-outs or any other stat, is what matters when you are at bat. Some of not having 'elite' stats is because they employed a platoon strategy at several positions, and some is injuries. Like it or not, the Twins had a lineup that got pretty equal contribution from 1-9 throughout the season. That didn't happen in the play-offs, but again - small sample size. Relying on elite players is great - until they don't produce. Look at Atlanta: Acuna and Olson combined for 95 home runs and 245 RBIs (!) in the regular season. In their 4 post season games combined; 0 home runs and 0 RBIs.

There were also several off days.

I agree that moving Lewis to the outfield makes sense. I'm not ready to give up on Kirilloff - he was very effective when healthy and is still only 25 years old. Julien may be able to be a serviceable second baseman - or DH.

I appreciate your noting the accomplishments of this team - there were plenty, and the team has a young core that has the potential to play October baseball for many years. ESPN has a column that explores reactions/over-reactions based on game results. I think some of the criticism is hand-wringing over a few games - small sample size is my first reaction. Meanwhile, if you want to talk about a team that under-performed, how about the Atlanta Braves? They had what some were describing as the best offense ever in baseball, and they scored 8 runs in 4 games against the Phillies! I would also note that Houston has a pretty good pitching staff as well. If there is a single trade in recent years that I regret the most for the Twins, it was sending Ryan Pressly to Houston for Alcala and Celestino. That one is never going to balance out for the Twins.

For his considerable talents, Lewis has played a grand total 70 MLB games over two years. He'll be 25 next year, meaning they have him locked up until age 30. There were lots of concerns expressed that Correa, at 29 was entering into decline this year - and his injury issues at the same age were certainly no worse than Lewis. Let's see him make it through at least one full season (remember that Buxton guy?) before talking long range extensions.

Also known as recency bias.

58 games and 217 at bats isn't enough to get you team MVP. Yes, he was great when he played, but you need to play more than approximately one-third of the season.

Kepler was second in at bats, 1st in runs scored, home runs, RBIs and total bases. His WAR was more than double Correa's. I'm glad we have a very good shortstop, but Kepler had better offensive production.

Gray and Lopez both had excellent years, but it's rare for a pitcher to win league MVP, and I think the same reasoning should apply to a team MVP. Throwing out Ohtani, since he didn't win MVP solely on pitching, you have to go back to 2014 to find a pitcher winning league MVP - Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers. His was a beast of a year - 21-3 record, 1.77 ERA, 198 innings pitched, 238 strikeouts. Prior to that, you have to go back to Justin Verlander in 2011, when he went 24-5, 2.40 ERA, pitched 251 innings with 250 strikeouts. Prior to that, you go all the way back to 1992! So, 41 years, 82 MVPs and 3 were pitchers. The fact that both Gray and Lopez got top votes suggests to me they were more of a 'tandem' MVP - and really it could have gone to the starting pitching as a whole. Granted, no Twin had a huge offensive year (or defensive for that matter - probably no Gold Glovers for this season), but Max Kepler was productive and huge in the second half of the year. He would have been my first place vote.

It would be great to have Lopez, Gray, Ryan, and Ober - and then decide whether to make Paddock or Varland the fifth starter and the other a high impact arm out of the bullpen. I suspect Gray is gone and the remaining five will be the starting rotation at the beginning of 2024.

Jeffers would be a good choice as well (I think the two of them are the Twins MVPs for the year), but Jeffers was part of a catching tandem and really only had about half of a year's at bats (286) and games played (92). Kepler had 438 at bats in 128 games.