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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Can't complain about the signing - he is a steady, professional hitter who has accumulated 35.5 WAR and added 2.7 to that total last year. You always worry when they get into their late 30s, but 2023 was, in some ways, ,an uptick for him. He will bring a slightly different approach to at bats, and that could be helpful. Let's hope he is another Nelson Cruz.
  2. arby58
    Agreed, and I was thinking about making a similar point. I used the $26 vs. $90 million comparison because that is what the article used.
  3. arby58
    Polanco wasn't in that type of insane amount of money situation - he was making around $500,000 a year back then. While that is nothing to sneeze at, if he had a career-ending injury, it wouldn't mean he didn't have to find something else to do with his life. For him, it was a real choice.
  4. arby58
    I agree with everything you wrote except for this. Of course, what constitutes a 'GOOD starter' is subjective (I'll define it as a #3 starter), but I doubt any team is giving up their #3 starter for two years of Polanco's projected stat line, taking into consideration age and injury concerns.
  5. arby58
    It's an interesting choice: contract for a sure $26 million or bet that you'll stay healthy, perform well, and perhaps make $90 million over time. I'd bet that most people would take the $26 million.
  6. arby58
    Sure, have him in the lineup. However, when looking for the optimal alignment - combining both offense and defense - I don't think Julien at first base is it.
  7. arby58
    It's a stretch to refer to Julien as a 1Bman. Last year, he played 17 innings for the Twins at first base. By contrast, he played 535 innings at second base. The year before, at AA, he played only second base. Yes, in 2021, he played all over - outfield, first base, second base, third base - but the position he played the most innings at was second base. It sounds to me like the Twins determined that second base was his best position. IMHO, playing 17 innings combined over 2 years at first base doesn't make you a first baseman.
  8. arby58
    I suppose, but my understanding is that Julien has been working hard on his defense and has improved considerably. Kirilloff has some inherent advantages defensively versus Julien - he is two inches taller and throws left-handed (even though Julien bats left handed, he throws right handed). Julien's experience at first base is also limited. I'd much rather he turn into a passable defensive second baseman, as his comparative advantage at the plate is more likely at second than first base.
  9. arby58
    Alex is quickly becoming an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The point about not a lot of HRs in over 700 plate appearances is valid, but he can really smoke the ball at times - somewhat streaky. I was at a Triple A game in Des Moines when Kirilloff was doing his rehab work, and in one game he hit two home runs and a ringing double that went to the deepest part of the ballpark. I was in a left field box when one of his home runs smashed off the facing above us, and left a notable dent that workers above us had to fix between innings.
  10. arby58
    It really is an excellent article.
  11. arby58
    I think it's that the Twins want him to get more experience. DeSclafini has started 169 games in MLB, Varland 15. He'll get his opportunities in time, and they are both in some ways an insurance policy - we know the Twins are not going to use 5 starting pitchers the entire season (not 6, either).
  12. arby58
    I'm not averse to it, but the expectation is that Buxton is going to DH when he's not in CF. Given Martinez is also a right handed hitter, he becomes superfluous in those situations. Given the 26 man roster limitation, I'd expect they're looking for somebody with a little more positional flexibility (such as can play 1B and/or OF when tough lefthanders tempt them to sit Kirilloff or Wallner).
  13. arby58
    Miley has 18.7 lifetime WAR and 2.5 last year - Corbin Burnes' numbers are 13.5 and 3.5. Miley was 9-4, 3.14 ERA in 23 starts and 120 innings pitched last year. Those aren't bottom feeder numbers.
  14. arby58
    Everybody has their preferences, and he did catch fire in a World Series. That said, the next year his OPS was .587.
  15. arby58
    With the signings of Miley and Hoskins, Milwaukee appears to be trying to make a deep play-off run rather than shedding near-term assets, which is another reason I doubt a Burnes trade - and with Polanco gone, offering up Lee or Julien as a key part of that trade becomes more iffy. The White Sox are a mess so, IMHO, more likely to center on a package of high value prospects. I assume Jenkins and now Lee are untouchable, but probably everybody else is part of the conversation. I know teams don't like to trade within the division, but if you are the White Sox, you don't realistically expect to be competing for a division title the next couple of years, so what's the big harm?
  16. arby58
    I guess I don't understand the not Taylor comment about playing every day for long stretches - he played 129 games for the Twins last year, which suggests he was close to an everyday player (at least in today's baseball). Granted, he was much better against right handed pitching (149 OPS+ versus 80), but the glove makes up for some of that.
  17. arby58
    Agree that Duvall is a far better defensive outfielder than Soler and has played a little first base (Soler never has), so he provides that platoon option as well. Duvall hasn't played more than 92 games in a season since 2021 and has had hand and wrist injury issues. He's also 3 1/2 years older. Both players strike out a lot and have had their ups and downs - probably not surprising they are still waiting around for 'the right offer.'
  18. arby58
    At first I thought you were referring to Taylor, who had 21 HR but only 51 RBIs, but I see you were referring to Eddie Rosario. I dunno, between the two, I think I'd rather have Taylor, just for the sake of my sanity.
  19. arby58
    Topa's strikeouts per inning are almost exactly those of Pagan last year - which is the role he will likely play (solid innings eater, some high leverage situations). He is a ground ball pitcher, and situationally that is something the Twins don't have much in the bullpen. Suggesting Polanco was their '2 hole hitter' - where was he going to play? Julien is their second baseman. Julien hit for a higher average, better OPS and OPS+ than Polanco, he's younger and has more upside potential. Besides, if your '2 hole hitter' is .789 OPS, your offense is in trouble. Polanco didn't fare well at third base, and you have to assume Buxton gets most of the ABs at DH. You can only play 9 at a time.
  20. arby58
    We have decent chances to be #2 or #3 in Ober and Ryan. Paddack is probably going to be too innings-limited to reach that level.
  21. arby58
    As somebody else pointed out, Farmer is a viable platoon option if they keep him (more likely now than yesterday). Granted, it was only 48 plate appearances (about 10 percent of his total), but Julien's splits against LHP were not good. .447 OPS versus .898; no HRs versus 16; 2 walks versus 62; 1 RBI versus 36.
  22. arby58
    Julien at first doesn't pair well with Kirilloff, since they are both left-handed batters. Julien and Lee aren't a great platoon option either, as Lee hasn't shown the ability (at least yet) to rake left handed pitching. That part still makes me wonder how it all shakes out - and reinforces my belief (and others on this board as well) that their primary target will be a right handed bat, either a corner outfielder or first baseman/DH type.
  23. arby58
    Nice analysis - I had the same general belief that he would fill a Pagan-like role. in fact, both Pagan and Topa threw 69 innings last year. Griffin Jax threw 65 and Duran 62, so they effectively replaced their relief 'innings eater.' One difference is Topa had a 2.61 ERA, while Pagan's was a slightly higher 2.99 (admittedly inflated a bit by one really bad outing).
  24. arby58
    Agreed. Stated another way, they could have had Polo for two years, $23 million combined, at ages 32-33, or keep Julien and promote Lee (both 6 years of control, minimal salaries the first two years). Julien already had a better year than Polo last year and is 25 years old, while Lee is their #2 prospect and 2 years younger. This was a no brainer from the start of the off-season.
  25. arby58
    A better comparison for Justin Topa would be Brock Stewart. Besides, Topa threw 69 innings last year in 75 games. He was a high leverage relief pitcher on a team with a strong bullpen. He wouldn't be the first relief pitcher to figure it out later in his career.
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