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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Julien, as a rookie, had a 130 OPS+, an .839 OPS, 2.6 WAR in just 338 ABs and was 7th in rookie of the year voting. He's hit at every level of minor league ball as well - it better be more than just a 'young, good, cheap' starting pitcher to take that bat out of the lineup for the foreseeable future.
  2. arby58
    The difference between the two is Kirilloff has proven to be a better MLB hitter. His OPS+ last year was 117, and for his career it is 104. Larnach was 98 and 95. That's above average versus below average in about the same number of at bats. The issue with Kirilloff is injuries rather than hitting ability.
  3. arby58
    I had the same hope regarding walk rate last year. We will see. His 'not figured it out yet' is why I don't believe the Twins will trade Kepler. Polanco, Farmer, maybe even one of Lee or Julien, but their outfield depth is a year away.
  4. arby58
    There is no general manager who, based on Mauer's performance behind the plate, would have contemplated moving him to right field 'just in case there are concussion issues.' The comparative advantage that Mauer offered as a decent defensive catcher and an awesome offensive one are far greater than would have been the case as a decent offensive and defensive right fielder. Besides, injuries happen at every position - and even while running the bases (hello, Justin Morneau). There is no 'tragedy of Joe Mauer' any more than there is the 'tragedy of Dale Murphy' (a dominant OUTFIELDER whose career was cut short by injuries). If we want to talk tragedies, we should talk Thurman Munson, or Roberto Clemente, or Lyman Bostock.
  5. arby58
    There isn't a lot to give you confidence that Larnach will figure it out. Besides the hitting aspect, both Kepler and Wallner are better outfielders and baserunners. On the hitting side, Larnach's career OPS+, with over 600 at bats, is 95. He's also stuck a bit in that all three (including Kepler and Wallner) are left-handed hitters, and Larnach performs abysmally against left handed pitchers (his small sample size OPS last year was .412, and for his career it is .569). He probably only gets ABs against right handed pitchers as the DH or if either of the other corner outfielders needs a day off. Sure, he hits AAA pitching well, but that doesn't seem to translate to the MLB level.
  6. arby58
    The most telling statistic was a 7.2 WAR in 1965, and a combined 5.4 WAR over his other 11 MLB seasons. If that isn't a one hit (defined as MLB season) wonder, it's pretty close.
  7. arby58
    It's a nice article, but the Twins didn't make a 'horrible trade' with Ortiz, they did something even worse - as the article notes, they just released him, which means they got nothing back from Boston. The headline should be changed.
  8. arby58
    Miranda had a bad 2023, but if it is largely because of injury, then he most certainly should fit into their plans. He played close to a full 2022, with 483 plate appearances and a 114 OPS+. Besides that, he had a monster year in AA/AAA in 2021, with a combined OPS of .973. If Brooks Lee and Austin Martin (with no big league experience and no performance at AA/AAA even close to Miranda's 2021) are in their plans, Miranda certainly should be.
  9. arby58
    One of the raps against Maurer was that he didn't play catcher long enough to be considered that for induction purposes. That is nonsense. In Mauer's career, he appeared at catcher in 921 games. He was at first in 603 games. He served as a DH in 310 games. He played catcher more than any other position. A recent article supporting Joe's election noted that from 2005-13, Mauer hit .323 with a .135 OPS+. and 43.2 WAR, or an average of 4.8 per season. It closed with "A general guideline of WAR says 5.0 in a year is an All-Star level. So Mauer was basically All-Star level for nine years as a catcher. That's plenty long enough." Welcome to Cooperstown, Joe!
  10. arby58
    Gallo led the team in strikeouts, with 142 in 282 at bats (!), so you would expect the average to go down regardless of what else happens. Some of this may not necessarily carry over from year to year. If you look at the top five teams in Ks in 2023 (Twins, Mariners, Rockies, Angels, Reds) and compare it to 2022 (Angels, Braves, Pirates, Brewers, Giants), there is only one team on both lists. I'm more interested in taking good at bats than just avoiding strikeouts. How many times have you seen the lead off batter in an inning hit a soft fly ball for an out on the first pitch? Those can be real buzz kills. Then there were times you'd watch a Julien battle for 8 or 9 pitches and then strike out (or walk). Those at bats seem more likely to be impactful on the game, as it is stressful for the pitcher and drives up his pitch count. The Yankees used to be famous for that 'grind it out' approach to hitting, and maybe the Twins can do it too.
  11. arby58
    It still will, even if their pitcher turns out well. You play baseball in the moment. Would you, as a fan, been happy if the Twins had finished second in the division last year (or even first then lost three straight in the play-offs?). Sonny Gray was second in CYA voting, and he had a great season (granted, he laid an egg in the play-offs against the Astros, but nobody is perfect). The Twins may not have made the play-offs or beaten the Blue Jays without him. Meanwhile, the pitcher in question is still in the minor leagues, and, while promising, there is no guarantee he will have two years as good as the ones Gray gave the Twins. Everything is a risk/reward calculation - and I will never fault the Twins for that trade, even if the pitcher they gave up turns into an All-Star (oh, that's right, so was Sonny).
  12. arby58
    The Sonny Gray trade worked out fine.
  13. arby58
    I agree - for all the concern about players traded away for actual major leaguers that didn't work out, there is some basic math that suggests you can't keep them all: 26 and 40.
  14. arby58
    I don't like trade one, because the OF is not where the Twins have much surplus. With both Wallner and Kepler gone, who plays on the corners? It starts looking like a black hole, offensively, and would require a full bounce back from Buxton and Larnach actually hitting for an entire MLB season. Seems unlikely. Number two probably works for both teams, IF the Twins believe Miller is for real. Number three is hard to swallow - probably for both teams. At least in this deal, you can see the Twins handling the infield (unlike the outfield in number one), as Polanco for two years at 2B (IF healthy) isn't a big worry, and maybe Severino becomes the heir apparent. Still, Julien and Lee might both be All Stars someday - would rather give up one and not both. Maybe keep one and throw in Rodriguez, Polanco, and Larnach.
  15. arby58
    Donaldson had a limited trade clause - only 5 teams he could not be traded to. This is comparing apples and lemons. Buxton chooses, not the Twins (or Yankees in the Donaldson case).
  16. arby58
    This 'the Twins don't want him but another team will, and will be willing to buy out his no trade clause seems so far fetched to me to strain credulity. Can you describe what that set of circumstances would look like?.
  17. arby58
    It's all conjecture. Players agents negotiate contracts with 'gives' and 'gets.' You have to assume that getting a no-trade contract clause was something he got and there should be a dollar value attached to it, in terms of what he had to give up to get it. Pro athletes have to be thick skinned or they won't survive - I highly doubt some heat from fans is going to affect a contract decision that he in some way had to pay for.
  18. arby58
    Just last year, Detroit's Eduardo Rodriguez used his no-trade clause to block a deal to the Los Angeles Dodgers. So who is on the other side of 'just negotiation clauses?' and what is to suggest Buxton would agree?
  19. arby58
    Buxton = no trade clause. Don't like him, fine, but suggesting they trade him is monotonously unrealistic.
  20. arby58
    You are right - they did get Bartlett for Buchanan. Funny how these things got intertwined.
  21. arby58
    That would have been a bit more balanced, given his career WAR of 16.8 (ceteris paribus, of course).
  22. arby58
    That's not my recollection on the Knoblauch trade. Baseball Almanac says 'Traded by Minnesota Twins to New York Yankees in exchange for Brian Buchanan, Cristian Guzman, Eric Milton, Danny Mota and cash (February 6, 1998).'
  23. arby58
    Thanks for the research on that - knew the trade was bad, just didn't know how bad. Another interesting trade (although far longer ago) was the Twins sending Chuck Knoblauch to the Yankees for Brian Buchanan, Christian Guzman, Eric Milton, and Danny Mota. I assume, based on Guzman's and Milton's performance, that one turned out pretty well.
  24. arby58
    There is revenue sharing in baseball. 48 percent of team revenue is pooled and split evenly among teams. There is also a competitive balance tax, and if teams go over the threshold (which is $237 million in 2024) there is a tax of between 20-50 percent of the overage. Note also that deferred compensation still counts in that calculation.
  25. arby58
    Agree - Kepler fills more of a need, and his trade value is likely lessened because of only one year of control. The infield is where they should focus the trade attention, and Polanco's two years of team-friendly control is the logical starting point. Of course, if you want a lot, teams are going to ask about Lee or Julien rather than Polanco.
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