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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Austin Riley is not a 'great comparable.' He signed as a player with no major injury concerns (he's played between 159 and 160 games a year for the last three years). If you can't see the difference from that and Lewis . . .
  2. arby58
    Except three of Trout's four major injuries occurred while batting (broken hamate bone), running the bases (calf strain) and sliding into second (torn thumb ligament). He also said he didn't know what caused the torn meniscus - it also could have been running the bases.
  3. arby58
    Right now, FanGraphs has the Twins with a 76.4% chance of making the play-offs. Interestingly, they give them the 3rd best chance of AL teams to win the World Series (Yankees are 13.6%, Orioles are 8.8% and the Twins are 6.2%).
  4. arby58
    He was injured this year trying to go from first to third on a base hit. That's not exactly a 'physically demanding' play. I believe his hamstring injury last year was also while running the bases. The guy is injury-prone.
  5. arby58
    MLB is riddled with lengthy contracts that didn't turn out well, and it's most often because of injuries. Even as great a player as Mike Trout is becoming a financial problem because of the length and size of his contract and lost games due to injuries. I love Royce Lewis as a player, but he still hasn't played much - again, because of numerous injuries. The Twins have given lengthy contracts to Correa and Buxton to be 'the face of the franchise' - given the financial reality that they are a mid-market club, I think they let it ride with Lewis.
  6. arby58

    Delusions of Grandeur

    arby58 commented on Twins GFP's blog entry in Twins GFP

    I don't feel badly treated. They won a play-off series last year and were in the hunt against the Astros. Yankees fans must have felt 'treated badly' by their missing the play-offs. They are in a good position to make the play-offs this year as well, and they have a lot of exciting, homegrown young players. The Twins made significant investments in their minor league operation as well as analytics, etc. It's not an accident the Twins keep raising MPH on their pitchers - it is investments that make that possible. The Twins cut payroll this year primarily because of the TV revenue uncertainty - and you can find plenty of articles detailing how that impacted multiple teams, not just the Twins. Ultimately, MLB needs to figure that out, not just the Twins.
  7. arby58

    Delusions of Grandeur

    arby58 commented on Twins GFP's blog entry in Twins GFP

    Baseball economics is different for the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, etc. - large market teams with payroll that matches their much greater revenue stream. If you look at the yearly payroll data for all the teams in MLB, you'll see fairly consistent rankings. The Yankees 'respect how they treat their fans' because of the revenue they bring in, pure and simple. That said, they also missed the play-offs last year.
  8. arby58
    He's 2.2 WAR through 74 games, so 3.5 seems a little low. Speaking of Polanco, he's currently 0.0 WAR and an OPS of .595 for the Mariners. Even if all the trade was for the Twins was a salary dump, it looks like a smart move in sending him west. I suspect they look to re-sign Castro. The other possible utility players (Lee, Martin) don't have his range of possible positions or the speed he brings to the top of the line-up. When he's on, he's electric.
  9. arby58
    A lot of good points and food for thought! Having a 'super utility' player who can play pretty much every day in multiple positions is, to me, as or more valuable than just nailing him to 2B. I do think he needs to be at the top of the lineup most days and one of Julien or Lee and one of Larnach or Wallner needs to go as trade material for pitching. Which will probably depend on what they get in return.
  10. arby58
    Including Santana in that group is unfair. He's currently second on the team in HRs, tied for 1st in RBIs, 3rd in total bases, has a 1.0 WAR and his OPS has been climbing, now at .741. He also is an excellent defensive first baseman. I'd say you are about a month or two behind in your assessment of his performance.
  11. arby58
    Whatever happens, it won't be a trade for either Margot or Farmer - the 'sell low' concept isn't going to net you anything close to 'minor league flame-throwing...pitchers.' Whoever goes will be DFA'd.
  12. arby58
    They'd have to actually want him. Hard to believe with his current peripherals.
  13. arby58
    Both Julien and Wallner had excellent years last year - it wasn't just hype. Julien, in 339 ABs had a 2.6 WAR and .839 OPS; Wallner, in 213 ABs had a 2.2 WAR and an .877 OPS. Like lots of players, they didn't sustain it their sophomore year - at least to this point. It is worth remembering that Wallner only had 25 AB this year before being sent down. Suggesting it is time to make final decisions on those two is of the 'haste makes waste' variety of decisions.
  14. arby58
    Agree - and the trade doesn't really make sense for the Mets either. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are 1 game out of a wild card spot. Why would they trade a proven MLB bat for minor leaguers in the middle of a play-off race?
  15. arby58
    We'll agree to disagree. Just about every player will encounter an injury season every few years, and Correa's injury last year had nothing to do with the 'medicals' that you refer to. Meanwhile, Correa has been very good this year, not just during this hot streak. He was also the Twins best position player in last year's play-offs. The Giants . . . nope, no play-offs last year, under .500 this year.
  16. arby58
    The Giants are 36-37 and getting very little from the shortstop position. Baseball doesn't have a salary cap, the Giants are considered a 'big market' team, and they have a payroll of over $200 million in 2024 (10th in MLB). They'd look a whole lot more like a play-off team with Correa at shortstop.
  17. arby58
    The thing that often doesn't get factored into these 'see what he looks like in 5 years' is what will salaries look like in 5 years? If, as expected, they continue to inflate, even a lesser Correa may still be in line with salaries because of inflation. Things are not static.
  18. arby58
    First, the Mets didn't 'save' any money by not signing Correa, because they replaced him with Francisco Lindor, who is on a 10-year, $341 million contract(!). He makes $34.1 million this year, while Correa makes $33.3 million. Lindor is having a decent year, with a 2.1 WAR in 70 games. However, Correa has posted a 2.5 WAR in just 54 games, 5th best among all MLB shortstops - and the 4 above him have all played at least 70 games. Sure, the Giants 'saved a lot of money' but the shortstops they have are barely better than replacement players. My guess is they wish they had signed Correa.
  19. arby58
    The Twins are 5th in the AL in runs scored. They are 11th in ERA. I'm not buying that hitting is the glaring area of weakness.
  20. arby58
    I saw him in Des Moines when he was down last when he went on a tear. We were in an outfield box in a game where he went 3-5 with two home runs and a ringing double to the centerfield fence. One of the home runs hit above us on the facing to the upper stands in left field - so hard that it damaged the facing. We then got to watch workers above us repairing it. If he's healthy and right, he has serious skills. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to be able to maintain that.
  21. arby58
    The issue isn't his 'improving average' it is that he brings little else offensively. He's still below .600 OPS, which is really bad, and has a negative WAR. I like veterans, but there is little that is dynamic about his bat - suspect they will want more later in the season.
  22. arby58
    I'm a big fan of veterans, but I would not be surprised if Farmer gets DFA'd at some point in the next month or so and Wallner gets promoted. Or Julien. Or Lee. Whenever one comes up, Farmer going down is the only logical move.
  23. arby58
    Yeah, but if nobody is buying now, it doesn't really matter. My guess is nobody will buy now - why would they?
  24. arby58
    I suspect for the Twins it is Correa - and maybe Santana. From what I've observed, teams that are going well always have 'chemistry' and when they're not going well, not so much. The Twins have been really up and down this year, but I suspect it would be better 'chemistry' if Lewis had been playing every day and Julien and Wallner had been performing like the second half of last year.
  25. arby58
    Hitting coaches - can anybody credibly name more than a few at the MLB level? Blaming them or thinking a new one is going to immediately change things - I doubt it. It seems to work better for pitching.
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