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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I'm not averse to it, but the expectation is that Buxton is going to DH when he's not in CF. Given Martinez is also a right handed hitter, he becomes superfluous in those situations. Given the 26 man roster limitation, I'd expect they're looking for somebody with a little more positional flexibility (such as can play 1B and/or OF when tough lefthanders tempt them to sit Kirilloff or Wallner).
  2. arby58
    Miley has 18.7 lifetime WAR and 2.5 last year - Corbin Burnes' numbers are 13.5 and 3.5. Miley was 9-4, 3.14 ERA in 23 starts and 120 innings pitched last year. Those aren't bottom feeder numbers.
  3. arby58
    Everybody has their preferences, and he did catch fire in a World Series. That said, the next year his OPS was .587.
  4. arby58
    With the signings of Miley and Hoskins, Milwaukee appears to be trying to make a deep play-off run rather than shedding near-term assets, which is another reason I doubt a Burnes trade - and with Polanco gone, offering up Lee or Julien as a key part of that trade becomes more iffy. The White Sox are a mess so, IMHO, more likely to center on a package of high value prospects. I assume Jenkins and now Lee are untouchable, but probably everybody else is part of the conversation. I know teams don't like to trade within the division, but if you are the White Sox, you don't realistically expect to be competing for a division title the next couple of years, so what's the big harm?
  5. arby58
    I guess I don't understand the not Taylor comment about playing every day for long stretches - he played 129 games for the Twins last year, which suggests he was close to an everyday player (at least in today's baseball). Granted, he was much better against right handed pitching (149 OPS+ versus 80), but the glove makes up for some of that.
  6. arby58
    Agree that Duvall is a far better defensive outfielder than Soler and has played a little first base (Soler never has), so he provides that platoon option as well. Duvall hasn't played more than 92 games in a season since 2021 and has had hand and wrist injury issues. He's also 3 1/2 years older. Both players strike out a lot and have had their ups and downs - probably not surprising they are still waiting around for 'the right offer.'
  7. arby58
    At first I thought you were referring to Taylor, who had 21 HR but only 51 RBIs, but I see you were referring to Eddie Rosario. I dunno, between the two, I think I'd rather have Taylor, just for the sake of my sanity.
  8. arby58
    Topa's strikeouts per inning are almost exactly those of Pagan last year - which is the role he will likely play (solid innings eater, some high leverage situations). He is a ground ball pitcher, and situationally that is something the Twins don't have much in the bullpen. Suggesting Polanco was their '2 hole hitter' - where was he going to play? Julien is their second baseman. Julien hit for a higher average, better OPS and OPS+ than Polanco, he's younger and has more upside potential. Besides, if your '2 hole hitter' is .789 OPS, your offense is in trouble. Polanco didn't fare well at third base, and you have to assume Buxton gets most of the ABs at DH. You can only play 9 at a time.
  9. arby58
    We have decent chances to be #2 or #3 in Ober and Ryan. Paddack is probably going to be too innings-limited to reach that level.
  10. arby58
    As somebody else pointed out, Farmer is a viable platoon option if they keep him (more likely now than yesterday). Granted, it was only 48 plate appearances (about 10 percent of his total), but Julien's splits against LHP were not good. .447 OPS versus .898; no HRs versus 16; 2 walks versus 62; 1 RBI versus 36.
  11. arby58
    Julien at first doesn't pair well with Kirilloff, since they are both left-handed batters. Julien and Lee aren't a great platoon option either, as Lee hasn't shown the ability (at least yet) to rake left handed pitching. That part still makes me wonder how it all shakes out - and reinforces my belief (and others on this board as well) that their primary target will be a right handed bat, either a corner outfielder or first baseman/DH type.
  12. arby58
    Nice analysis - I had the same general belief that he would fill a Pagan-like role. in fact, both Pagan and Topa threw 69 innings last year. Griffin Jax threw 65 and Duran 62, so they effectively replaced their relief 'innings eater.' One difference is Topa had a 2.61 ERA, while Pagan's was a slightly higher 2.99 (admittedly inflated a bit by one really bad outing).
  13. arby58
    Agreed. Stated another way, they could have had Polo for two years, $23 million combined, at ages 32-33, or keep Julien and promote Lee (both 6 years of control, minimal salaries the first two years). Julien already had a better year than Polo last year and is 25 years old, while Lee is their #2 prospect and 2 years younger. This was a no brainer from the start of the off-season.
  14. arby58
    A better comparison for Justin Topa would be Brock Stewart. Besides, Topa threw 69 innings last year in 75 games. He was a high leverage relief pitcher on a team with a strong bullpen. He wouldn't be the first relief pitcher to figure it out later in his career.
  15. arby58
    It's a good question. Agree JD or Adam would be a nice bat to have. Part of it is how confident are they that BB really can play half-time in CF. If not, I'm thinking outfield.
  16. arby58
    The home/away question is interesting. That year, he was 8-3 at home with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.073 WHIP. On the road, he was 5-4, 3.22 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, slightly better at home. Interestingly his strike out rate was better away. The one area that does stand out was he gave up 4 home runs at home, and 15 on the road.
  17. arby58
    The Athletic quotes Falvey as saying they will spend the saved money from the deal, but it might be for a position player. My guess is they are targeting an actual centerfielder or a right handed hitting first baseman. I agree with you about Varland. He combined to throw 150 innings last year between AAA and the Twins, so he's more than capable of being an every day starting pitcher. He's got the stuff, probably just needs a bit more experience.
  18. arby58
    Topa's first three years at the major league level only amounted to a total of 18 innings. Last year, he was a key piece of Seattle's bullpen, 75 games, 69 innings pitched, 2.61 ERA. That innings pitched and ERA stat line compares favorably with every pitcher in the Twins 2023 bullpen not named Duran, Saying 'he's only had one decent year' is the kind of thing you could also say about the Twins Brock Stewart.
  19. arby58
    He's two seasons removed from a 13-7, 31 starts, 168 innings pitched and 3.19 ERA season. He had a couple other decent years as a starting pitcher before that. Granted, the last two years have been injury-filled, but I'd assume the Twins have had the opportunity to 'look under the hood.' If he is healthy, he may well be part of the rotation, at least at some point in the year. They'll probably need 7 or 8 starting pitchers by the end of the season anyway. They traded for him, so it's a little different from some of the free agent pitcher 'dumpster dives' of the past.
  20. arby58
    ESPN grades the trade A- for the Twins and C for the Mariners. Apparently a lot of baseball people aren't as high on Polanco, after various injuries, 'coming into his prime.' If the Twins are going to promote Lee, there simply aren't enough at bats at second base for Lee and Julien plus Polanco. This is when his trade value is highest, given his two years of team control. Polanco was going to be moved. The relief pitcher the Twins got strikes me as the key piece (besides the top 100 prospect). It suggests they plan to leave Varland in the rotation rather than putting him in 7th or 8th inning roles (which is where the Mariners used Topa). The back end of the bullpen, with Stewart, Theilbar, Jax, Topa, and Duran, looks strong and deep.
  21. arby58
    ESPN grades the trade as an A- for the Twins and a C for the Mariners. Desclafini is probably the third piece from the Twins perspective. As ESPN writes, "Topa was a major contributor last season for a bullpen that finished with the fourth-best ERA in the majors, posting a 2.61 ERA over 75 appearances." They also refer to Gonzalez as 'a prospect of some note.'
  22. arby58
    I've long felt they would deal Polanco but not Kepler - they have far less depth in the outfield than the infield and few corner outfielders 'on the verge' in AAA. I still feel that way.
  23. arby58
    Yeah, let's not give them credit for putting together a decent team last year and one with a bunch of exciting young players this year. I was to games last year and had a great time - I expect the same this year. But I'll stay home to 'prove a point.' Not.
  24. arby58
    Polanco is a good player, but he's got injury concerns as well, isn't getting any younger, and is no more than an average defender. Topa was a decent reliever last year, and DeSclafini has had his moments. With a decent prospect and Seattle sending back some salary money, it seems about right. I was reading a transcript of a chat about baseball trade rumors, and the expert who does these made the point that hometown fans often overvalue their players for trade purposes. It takes two to make a trade, and my guess this is about Polanco's value at the moment.
  25. arby58
    The difference with Morris is they didn't have to trade for his one year of control, so it wasn't a zero sum game. Here, you would be giving up a hitter who figures to be batting at the top of the order in 2024 - that's pretty important too.
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