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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Baseball Reference dot com. for WAR. The rest of the stats are public knowledge - he had a good year last year in terms of HRs, RBIs, OPS+. Maybe the Twins actually scouted him a bit and went further than looking at prior year stats?
  2. arby58
    Kirilloff last year was horrible against LHP - .482 OPS.
  3. arby58
    This team sort of reminds me of the Timberwolves. Last season, after the Rudy trade, they underperformed but still made the play-offs - but both Rudy and KAT were hurt off and on and never really got the chance to jell. The T-wolves made one (seemingly inconsequential) trade, picking up a 'past his prime' point guard (Conley), and there was a fair amount of criticism of the front office. This year, of course, they have the second-best record in the NBA and have already matched their win total from last year. Why? Healthy Rudy and KAT, emergence of a superstar in Ant, and that 'old guy' Conley runs the offense very well and contributes clutch baskets. Twins, if they have healthy seasons from Correa and Buxton, and if some of the 'old guys' (ala Santana or various pitchers) contribute, they could be in a similar situation. It is entirely possible that Royce Lewis could be on a superstar track this year (again, if he can avoid injuries), and young pitchers (I think Ober in particular) can be expected to progress. Yes, that is a lot of 'ifs' but the T-wolves show how it can work out.
  4. arby58
    I think that is a little harsh. Last year, he had 2.7 WAR - would have tied for 3rd on the Twins. He had 23 HR, only Kepler's 24 were more for the Twins. He had 86 RBI - that would have been first on the Twins (by 20!). He had a 103 OPS+, meaning he was above league average. Throw in a good glove at first base, and it doesn't look like time has 'passed him' yet. Granted, it may this year, but that would not be based on last year's performance.
  5. arby58
    I assume Santana will play close to 100 percent of the time against LHP (and Kirilloff not very much, given his .482 OPS against them last year) and play first base. I agree that Kirilloff will be in the line-up against RHP close to 100 percent of the time. While I don't think Santana will take AB from Kirilloff against RHP, he wasn't that bad last year against them - he hit 17 HRs off them and had an OPS+ of 98. IF he is in the line-up against a RHP, he'll generally play 1B and Kirilloff will probably DH. Santana is a better 1B defensively. At least that's my take on it.
  6. arby58
    It's also funny that lots of people complain about Twins players who strike out a lot. MAT last year struck out 130 times - third most on the team to Gallo (142) and Correa (131). Gallo did walk 48 times, MAT only 26. Gallo had a poor OBP of .301, still higher than MAT's .278. They both had 21 HRS, Gallo in 282 at bats, while MAT had 355. Gallo had a .741 OPS and a 101 OPS+, while MAT was .720 and 94. Sure, MAT played decent centerfield, but the offensive vilification of Gallo and deification of MAT last year is bizarre.
  7. arby58
    There is another difference, in that Taylor will be 33 this year and Margot 29. This makes the roster younger in comparison to last year.
  8. arby58
    Right - fans are fickle.
  9. arby58
    Had to be a Freudian slip - meant to say Larnach will take his spot in St. Paul.
  10. arby58
    Correa is going to play SS for at least several more years. Miller has three years in the minors and has a career .220 BA and .644 OPS. Love the glove, but the teams that win in the MLB have shortstops who can both field AND hit. Miller is a long way from proving he can do that. It's notable the prospect the Twins got back in the trade currently grades out about the same at the minor league level as Miller. Meanwhile, the Twins are trying to win now, and they need a right-handed outfielder who can play all three positions - mission accomplished.
  11. arby58
    The Dodgers preferred Hernandez - and some of the commentary (such as on ESPN) is the Dodgers believe Hernandez gives them more positional flexibility. The Twins already have a 'swiss army knife' in Castro, but a veteran outfielder who can play all three positions is what the Twins needed. Both teams got what they needed - the Dodgers freed up the $4 million to keep them from going even deeper into luxury tax hades, and the Twins got a proven right-handed outfielder who can play all three positions.
  12. arby58
    I remember - part of why I used him as an example. For that matter, Kepler was 'blocking' talent last year too, according to lots of the GMs on this forum.
  13. arby58
    Maybe some balance here? Margot has career WAR of 12.2, and even last year, a down year, it was 0.6. Jake Cave last year had a WAR of -0.1 and has a career WAR of 2.1. Garlick had a WAR last year of -0.1 and a career WAR of 0.0. Stevenson last year had a WAR of 0.1 and a career WAR of 0.4. If you were a GM and choosing these retreads over Margot, you'd be committing professional malpractice.
  14. arby58
    Which 'younger guys' does this block? Certainly not Larnach, because he can't play CF. For that matter, Larnach is 27 and the 'old guy' blocking him is 29. Martin? He's barely played at the AAA level so far and while he is making progress, he doesn't look MLB ready yet. Margot is a proven major leaguer. When you're wanting to compete for a title, you want guys like that around - like Solano last year.
  15. arby58
    Good question! My guess would be Weiss.
  16. arby58
    Except they got a 'lottery ticket' in return with a similar minor league grading by several of the minor league graders.
  17. arby58
    Yeah, that was pretty much ESPN's reading - they graded the trade a B for Minnesota and a B for Dodgers - when combined with their signing of Enrique Hernandez. Their reading of the minor leaguers: "F'or now, we can consider the prospect part of this a wash, and we'll see if we hear anything from these guys in a couple of years."
  18. arby58
    Margot is 29, Duvall is 35 and Taylor will be 33 this month. Margot has 12.2 WAR in 7 seasons, Duvall 11.9 in 12 seasons, and Taylor 11.3 in 9 seasons. "Certainly better" isn't looking all that certain.
  19. arby58
    I'm not sure I agree that Varland is "presumably better" than Paddock, who was pretty highly regarded before his two elbow surgeries. He was 22-21, 4.21 ERA, 2.3 WAR and 338 strikeouts in 335 innings with a 1.136 WAR. Those stats compare favorably with Varland's. If Paddock is back (his September performance was promising and you would assume the Twins were monitoring his work over the winter), I think he is a strong number four starter. Varland still has some things to prove as a starter as well.
  20. arby58
    To me, Martin seems like a logical replacement (at a much reduced salary) for Farmer. This creates a lot of flexibility, since both he and Castro can play both infield and outfield, where Farmer is just an infielder. Maybe it doesn't happen at the beginning of the year, but it sure makes sense further down the line.
  21. arby58
    At least last year, that wasn't the way the Twins rolled - they went 1,2,3,4,5 starters throughout the early part of the season rather than skipping the number 5 starter. I suspect the thought process (besides being comfortable with all 5) was that it would provide an extra day of rest here and there for the 1-4 starters, which would help them stay fresh for later in the season. Of course, it helped that they had Varland and Ober available when Mahle and Maeda weren't available.
  22. arby58
    I tend to agree with Varland as the next in line, which is why I think he starts the year in St. Paul (ala Ober last year). One minor quibble with the story - rather than losing 40 percent of their rotation from last year, they really lost about one-third, because Maeda was injured for part of the year - hence starts by Keuchel and Varland.
  23. arby58
    He had such poor years in 2021 and 2022 that it makes one pause. Of course, he's still relatively young and he had an incredible MVP season back in 2019. The other issue as I see it is he is another left-handed bat, and the Twins have had their issues with left handed pitching because of so many left-handed bats. Last year, Bellinger actually had a better OPS against LHPs, but that hadn't been the case the prior two years (in 2021, his OPS against LHP was an abysmal .383).
  24. arby58
    Even if this is 'all there is' (and I do think they will add a right-handed hitting outfielder who can play CF), last year most people didn't think Castro would even make the team let alone be an impactful player. There is the chance for some players to elevate themselves, even absent trades or free agent signings. Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Ober, Varland, and Wallner all did last year. I was (pleasantly) surprised to see that ESPN in their projections, has the Twins fifth in MLB and a forecast of 88.9 wins and a 73.5% chance of making the playoffs. Quite frankly, if they win 89 games, they have a 100% chance of making the play-offs. In the write-up, they mentioned expected return to more normal form for Correa and Buxton and expected continued progression by their young talent. Sounds about right. They also say the Twins have picked up 2.2 wins with their offseason moves. Somewhat dubious on that. ESPN also projects the Twins farm system as 9th best in MLB, so there clearly is some decent talent in the pipeline, at least as they see it.
  25. arby58
    That's the baseball salary structure at play (which is part of the CBA with the players union). There is the opportunity for young impactful players to make extra money via the pre-arbitration bonus pool - Julio Rodríguez picked up an additional $1,865,349, Corbin Carroll $1,812,337, Adley Rutschman $1,798,439, etc. Six Twins also benefited: Ober ($432,752), Julien ($397,629), Ryan ($341,931), Lewis ($341,190), Jeffers ($300,304), and Duran ($271,789).
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