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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    He's also a veteran who knows his way around a hit (or in his case lots of walks). Festa may eventually get there, but once a runner or two was on base, you could pretty well bank on them scoring - he hasn't yet 'figured it out' at the MLB level. Meanwhile, Varland is still having trouble getting batters out at the AAA level. He has a 3-7 record, 5.91 ERA, and a 1.562 WHIP. Not much better than in MLB this year. Yuck.
  2. arby58
    Combined, Varland and Festa have a 1-5 record, an ERA of 7.75, and a WHIP of 1.67. In a combined 36 innings pitched, they've given up 10 home runs and 11 walks with 33 strikeouts. So, no, they aren't likely to piece together anything remotely effective over 10 starts. Matthews started the year a high-A, then 9 starts at AA and was just promoted and made 1 5-inning start at AAA. If this is all the Twins have got, they're going to have to work hard to make the play-offs.
  3. arby58
    I think 'steal' is a bit too optimistic - many analysts noted his upside but also the injury downside risk. So, he was a high risk/reward draft pick.
  4. arby58
    Sounds like fantasy baseball. Santana is an excellent defensive first baseman and contributes on offense as well. Neither Miranda or Lewis is a first baseman of any skill.
  5. arby58
    That may well be the greatest season for a catcher in modern baseball history. The excellence both at bat and in the field was remarkable. Hitting .365 as a catcher, given all the wear and tear throughout the year, is phenomenal. When combined with a 1.031 OPS, I'm shocked he wasn't a unanimous selection for MVP (he only missed by one first place vote).
  6. arby58
    But the methodology was pick three outfielders, presumably with the best WAR.
  7. arby58
    Not the author's stated criteria, which requires being on an All-Star team in the decade.
  8. arby58
    Except that he didn't make an All-Star team, and that is part of the methodology of this exercise. If you did an all-decade team and took the peak year performance rather than All-Star game qualification and the year of it, you most definitely could construct some monster wins, WAR wins-wise.
  9. arby58
    That's where the best non-pitcher athletes generally are - what is wrong with drafting that? They may end up anywhere else on the field, but you know a player who didn't play shortstop probably won't have as much positional flexibility.
  10. arby58
    It truly is one of the exciting/frustrating aspects of following a team. I remember Marty Cordova winning ROY and having a good second year, then injuries derailed his career for many years. John Castino was also a ROY and had several good years, and then, same thing as Cordova - back issues. Don't get me started on Francisco Liriano - his rookie year had the makings of perhaps another Twins World Series win until he and Brad Radke went out with injuries.
  11. arby58
    Fine, and if they perform, they continue to play - if not, they may find themselves in AAA. BTW, Evan Carter is having an injury-marred sophomore year - his OPS is a pedestrian .633 in 45 games. That's often the story, as they also were with Miranda in his second year.
  12. arby58
    That is correct, but in Torri's case, he played 135 games with the Twins in 1999 and was sent down for 55 games in 2000 - in that respect, it reminds me of Wallner and Julien, who both spent/are spending a significant amount of time back in AAA. In Morneau's case, he had only played 40 games with the Twins in 2003, so it's not as surprising that he basically spent half his time the next year between AAA and the AL.
  13. arby58
    Both Lee and Miranda got their chance because of injuries - not because they're young players with potential who 'deserve' a chance to start. It's also why both Wallner and Julien were sent back down - they didn't 'deserve' to play, based on their MLB performance. Wallner performed very well at AAA, and now he's back and has another shot. Julien has his AAA OPS up to .789, and if they need another infielder, he might get a shot yet this year. That said, he won't get that shot just because of potential. The goal is to make the play-offs, and those who have already proven it are going to play - as it should be. I have no idea what you are talking about regarding Texas' Garcia. Ardolis Garcia debuted with Texas in 2021 and played 149 games for them that year, then 156 in 2022 and last year, when you say he did not make his debut until December, he played in 148 games - how the heck do you do that in September?
  14. arby58
    13 HRs, second on the team to Jeffers' 14.
  15. arby58
    There are still the Brock Stewarts and Caleb Thielbars of the world that are notable exceptions - and at ages far in advance of 26.
  16. arby58
    On the contrary, the Twins decided that Wallner and Julien had to learn their way back to MLB at AAA. Complete agreement on that - the poster I responded to believes you should play the young players 'because they have potential.' That is what teams out of the play-off race do.
  17. arby58
    You deserve it when you prove it at the MLB level. The Twins are in the play-offs hunt, and this isn't the time or place for on-the-job training. That is what AAA is for. Miranda and Lee are playing because they are contributing, not because they have 'great potential.' We can hope that Wallner figured it out while at AAA, and Julien will also be ready. They were stinking up the joint for the Twins - it's notable that the offense picked up considerably when proven veterans like Correa, Buxton, Santana, and Kepler started picking it up.
  18. arby58
    Flaherty beat the Guardians last night, went 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 earned run. Doesn't sound like he is injured.
  19. arby58
    Agree - if Detroit has any chance of getting back into the play-off game in the next couple of years, they need to keep Skubal. They didn't make moves like signing Maeda (boy, that looks better for the Twins every day) if they were going into a 3 or 4 year rebuild.
  20. arby58
    Lewis looks brilliant when he is playing (although this year he has experienced a slump). That said, he has 379 plate appearances over parts of 3 MLB seasons with the Twins. It's phenomenal that he has generated 4.1 WAR over that stretch, but he is a constant risk of another injury. Meanwhile, Skubil is 4.2 WAR this season alone and 9.3 for his career. I'm thinking if anybody says no to this trade, it is Detroit.
  21. arby58
    There is still a lot of baseball left, and last year Ober's stats were not far off from Gray's. It may be that he has started to 'figure it out.' He has had some incredibly efficient starts of late - including the 89 pitch complete game. I still think he is in the top three. That said, SWR may not have great K%, but the rest of his game is playing pretty well. Yes, he doesn't have many innings under his belt, but neither does one of the Yankees' key starters. SWR has 87 innings pitched in MLB and Luis Gil has 129.
  22. arby58
    Comparing Nathan to Rivera as a 'dominant closer' is not going to come out well for Nathan. The 'glamor stats' are lopsided in Rivera's favor: he finished 2nd, 3rd (three times), 5th and 8th in Cy Young balloting. Nathan was 4th once and 5th once. Rivera got significant MVP votes in 9 seasons, including 9th twice 11th once, and 12th once. Nathan got those votes twice - 12th and 18th. Rivera was an All Star 13 times, Nathan 6. Of course, he was also the only player ever unanimously selected on the first ballot to the HOF - Nathan is not there. So go to an advanced stat, WAR. Nathan's 16 seasons produced 26.7 WAR. Rivera's 19 seasons produced 56.3. In the 8 comparable seasons when Nathan was closing for the Twins, his WAR was 18.3, and Rivera's was 27.3. Yes, in two of those seasons, Nathan had a higher WAR, but that is certainly not 'several years.' Nathan was very good, but Rivera was other-worldly.
  23. arby58
    I hear you - but AJ was a very good player at a premium position, whereas Cruz was a short-term rental. Liriano really only had the one super-outstanding year with the Twins - otherwise he was up and down. Bonzer was -0.5 WAR for his career, nearly all with Minnesota, so he's not really a factor. It's also a situation where we are assessing the entirety of Nathan's (outstanding) career with the Twins - if Ryan keeps pitching the way he has the first part of this year, that might flip thinking as well. Maybe the right grade is 'incomplete.'
  24. arby58
    It's an interesting comparison. The Twins also got Liriano and Bonzer plus Nathan. They did have to give up a very good catcher in A.J. Pierzynski, but they had Joe Mauer waiting in the wings. The thing that made the Ryan trade so valuable is they gave up next to nothing to get him. I'd probably also rate the Nathan trade slightly higher. I'd go back even further in history for what I thought as a kid was the best trade the Twins made - getting Caesar Tovar for Gerry Arrigo. Arrigo never really matched his performance after the trade, with a 2.2 career WAR - and Tovar's positional flexibility was unmatched, along with a career WAR of 28.3. That's a darn good trade!
  25. arby58
    I'm not as high on Martin (at least so far) as some. Sure, he gives them positional flexibility, but he has looked a little lost at those positions at times. Also, his -0.2 WAR is nothing to write home about.
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