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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Quite an over-statement. He had 25 at bats this year before being sent to AAA. Last year, in 213 at bats he had 14 HR, 41 RBI, and an .877 OPS. He's hitting again at AAA - I don't understand the 'can't hit anything' opinion.
  2. arby58
    This isn't just an issue for the Twins - young players often take time to figure things out. The most hyped rookie in all of MLB this year was Jackson Holiday - can't miss, number 1 prospect. Started the year with the Orioles and put up a -0.5 WAR and was sent to AAA. I think we as Twins fans sometimes get tunnel vision related to the team. Meanwhile, we often complain about veterans with slow starts - did it last year with Kepler, this year with Santana - yet they figured it out and both are solid contributors. They're veterans.
  3. arby58
    I've been a pretty constant believer in Santana this year. In his last 10 games, he is 12 for 35 with 11 RBI. He's second on the team in HRs, RBIs and total bases and is solid defensively.
  4. arby58
    Last year they had three rookies play major roles and a couple others were supporting cast. This year SWR is having a big impact, and Martin has had some moments. My guess is Lee and Festa will play a role in the second half. That doesn’t sound too bad in terms of MLB readiness.
  5. arby58
    Given that Santana is second on the team in HRs, RBIs, Total Bases, and Walks (and plays better defense at 1B than anybody else on the roster) that isn't happening. Yes, I know he also has the second most at bats and his OPS is still below .700, but he is not a DFA option. Agree with others that Julien needs to add some two-strikes hitting ability and the current depth provided by Margot and Farmer means they stick around a little longer. IF Lee gets healthy and/or Julien performs and Wallner gets it back together, both Margot and Farmer might not see the second half of the season, at least not from Target Field.
  6. arby58
    That is demonstrably false - look no further than the total payroll for each MLB team. Since the 2000 season, the Twins have had the lowest payroll twice (2000 and 2001). They have typically (but not always) been in the lower half, but they are not even close to the 'most budget conscious' owners in the league. For the record, from 2024 back to 2000, their opening day payroll ranking has been 18 in 2024, then 17, 20, 16, 20, 18, 18, 22, 18, 18, 24, 22, 13, 10, 11, 24, 25, 18, 19, 20, 19, 18, 27, 30, 30. So who has had the lowest payroll the most in those 25 years? The Rays (5), the Marlins (4), the Astro (3), and the A's (3). Along with the Twins, the Orioles, Pirates, and Brewers have 2, and the Padres and Royals 1. Honestly, can't we have reasonable discussions without this sort of hyuperbole?
  7. arby58
    Vazquez, for all his offensive inability at the moment, is still a very good defensive catcher. The Twins are currently 5th of 15 AL teams in runs scored, so it's not as if they can't afford to value defense at one of the key defensive positions. The Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 games, and even Margot has had some key hits. Last year at this time, people were complaining similarly about Max Kepler. Sometimes you have to trust the judgement of those who see the players in the majors and the minors every day.
  8. arby58
    Soto sure - and Judge being back is equally important. They both have a WAR of 3.1 at this point in the season.
  9. arby58
    You're working yourself into a lather with wildly inconsistent claims. Royce Lewis wasn't 'held back' from playing for the Twins as a teenager because of 'the Twins way' - he was 'held back' by tearing his ACL TWICE. He was on the injured list again for a substantial portion of last year and now since the first game of this season. Yet you claim he's basically indestructible. What color is the sky in your world?
  10. arby58
    This is all cherry picking - Acuna, Rodriguez, Witt are among the best players in the game. I'm surprised you didn't add teenagers Trout and Harper to the list. For what it's worth, Byron Buxton debuted with the Twins at 21 - so did SWR, for that matter.
  11. arby58
    Are you an MD? How do you know 'he's 100% healthy and ready to contribute?' The worst thing that could happen for the Twins would be to bring him back too quickly, have him aggravate the injury, and be done for a couple more months. Honestly, why do people believe they know better than the professional trainers, doctors, etc. that are employed by the Twins and have skin in the game? It's not as if they gain anything from keeping him in the minors at this point in his career. The Twins are fighting to make the play-offs - they will bring him up when they believe the rewards outweigh the risks.
  12. arby58
    Now you have 'missed the point.' The request was 'ask them directly' which you didn't do. Of course they aren't going to be stirred up about a trade from years ago unless given the opportunity to comment on it
  13. arby58
    You should take this rap to a Rays discussion board and ask their fans if they think it was 'no big deal' that they basically gave away what is now a starting pitcher with an ERA under 3. Just as the first thing you learn in investing is that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, I'm not buying into the first half/second half theory to explain Ryan this year. As he admitted, he was injured last year and tried to play through it - that was dumb, but it helps to explain his performance. Second, he IS throwing harder this year on his fast ball, and he is actually throwing it less often - which was probably part of the 'catch up' in previous years. This idea that it takes the league time to catch up doesn't make a lot of sense - they have tape of every game he pitches, they shouldn't need volumes of his work to 'catch up' if that is what they are able to do. Mowing down the hot-hitting Royals yesterday was impressive - I get the impression you didn't actually watch the game.
  14. arby58
    "The point"" is here and now. Here and now the Rays would benefit from having Ryan, and suggesting it's ok because they MIGHT churn out another talented pitcher is just a rationalization of a bad trade for them. Did you watch yesterday's game? I did - Ryan overpowered a line-up that is second in the AL (and fourth in all of MLB) in runs scored. He threw harder than ever, and he was efficient as well - 9 Ks no walks. Rationalize that away.
  15. arby58
    Statistically speaking, it is not overrated - hard hit balls will, more often than not, result in positive results for the hitter. That's not 100 percent, but it is the case more often than not. Morneau (who knows something about hitting) made a comment yesterday about the confounding nature of baseball and the ninth inning was an example. That inning had little to do with the pitchers, it was just one of those weird innings.
  16. arby58
    Given the Rays are currently 23rd in MLB in ERA (and have a losing record), my guess is their fans would be ecstatic to have Ryan in their rotation.
  17. arby58
    Even less than that - 55 games.
  18. arby58
    I get it, they scored 4 runs in the 9th inning, but that was about as collective soft contact as you'll see for a team scoring 4 runs in an inning.
  19. arby58
    I think the Polanco comparison is more apt than Arraez, because Lee has not put up high batting averages in the minor leagues. Granted, he's been younger than the league at AA and AAA, but his type of hitting (with more power ala Polanco) doesn't really align with Arraez. Plus he's a switch hitter like Polanco.
  20. arby58
    You really think they are going to send Duran down to AAA? What color is the sky in your world?
  21. arby58
    This seems a bit of an overreaction.
  22. arby58
    Ultimately, Duran throws the pitch - I simply do not believe that the Twins will tell their best relief pitcher that he needs to throw the pitch the pitching coach/catcher call 'or else.' Or else what? I still think this is on Duran. Baldelli criticism to me seems hindsight driven. He makes a lot of moves, so when they don't work out, it is subject to criticism. I suspect he doesn't get enough credit for times when those moves work out.
  23. arby58
    It was the first thing that I wondered about after the Guardians series. He's a power pitcher, and if he has lost some mph on his pitches, that is reason to be concerned. He did so well coming off the injury - maybe there are some lingering issues?
  24. arby58
    Baldelli has always seeemed like a bit of a 'rah rah' guy to me. Perhaps because he was a player himself, he has seemed to go out of his way to praise the players and stay away from direct criticism. Those comments seemed out of character. Duran as well, but not quite as much.
  25. arby58
    I've done statistics for a living, so this stuff doesn't really surprise me as presented. In my world, we create ARIMA (auto-regression integrated moving average) models to forecast future outcomes, where a time series is regressed on its own past values, it is then made stationary (such as removing seasonality) and then regressed on past forecast errors. The first thing we learn about these is the need to use human intervention, because lots of stuff outside of statistical models needs to be taken into consideration. In the world you rely upon, you are aggregating outcomes - fine, but it loses the individual impact in specific games. Lots of baseball people refer to that as 'clutch hitting.' It's like when Royce Lewis comes up with the bases loaded and does you know what. Of course, it happens that he does that in lots of instances, but maybe the Carlos Santanas of the world should be recognized when they 'go off' for three or four games in a row and have a pretty direct positive impact on the outcome of games. I'd much rather have Santana winning a game they probably otherwise don't win with a 3-run homer than a guy who stuffs stats with a bunch of singles that don't really produce much of anything.
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