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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    He needs to accomplish more on the field if he is going to be their #5 starter. DeSclafani had arguably a better performance last year (lower ERA, better WHIP) than Varland as a SP.
  2. arby58
    I think people are underestimating how good Bailey Ober can be. Last year, he was 8-6, 3.43 ERA, 1.067 WHIP. Berrios was 11-12, 3.65 ERA, 1.186 WHIP. Berrios is a great 'innings eater' pitcher, no doubt, but it's quite likely he would be the #3 starter for the Twins. Sure, that would be nice to have, but if they get Ober stretched out, he has better upside.
  3. arby58
    Correct - and from last year, Maeda was even less average innings pitched per start. I don't understand why DeSclafani has become such a show stopper for people. He's a pretty typical 5th starter. Last year in that role, Varland was 3-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.357 WHIP. Maeda was 6-7, 4.28 ERA, 1.178 WHIP. DeSclafani was 4-8, 4.72, 1.206.
  4. arby58
    DeSclafani. They have an emerging nucleus, and if they get full seasons at similar levels from last year from Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, and Wallner, plus a more stretched out starting pitcher performance from Ober, with maybe Lee sprinkled in for an early summer call up, the team seems equal to last year - less starting pitching, more depth in the bullpen and more offense. If you get a healthy Correa and semi-healthy Buxton, they could well be a 90+ wins team. Sure, there are 'ifs' but the talent is there.
  5. arby58
    The ones on the current Twins roster came from ESPN, those not came from Googling them. If it is off by a year somewhere, I assume that would be they are actually older - that would be the players no longer on the Twins' roster. As for Varland - ready for what? He looked good at the end of the year in the BP. His starting line last year, OTOH, in MLB was 3-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.357 WHIP. Everybody's hated new possible 5th starter, was 4-8, 4.72 ERA, 1.206 WHIP. He may have also been playing through an injury.
  6. arby58
    The movie title 'Trouble with the Curve' springs immediately to mind. Until Larnach proves he can hit that pitch, the only pitcher types I'd regularly start him against are Joe Ryan types (and he currently doesn't get to hit against Ryan).
  7. arby58
    They didn't re-sign a number of older players as well - Keuchel (36), Solano (36), Maeda (35), Gray (34), Taylor (32), Gallo (30) - and traded Polanco (30). Meanwhile, Topa is 32, DeSclafani is 33, Jackson 36, and Santana 38. Not that much different than last year.
  8. arby58
    Do you honestly think this example means the Twins 'front office is not 'remotely competent?' Maybe a little balance in your thinking? It's the same FO that traded for Gray and Lopez (both trades leading to a fair amount of criticism), and drafted the young core of players they now have. Besides, the Twins as a team were not hitting first half of the year - who would have performed all that much better at that time?
  9. arby58
    The 'one good year in the last four' was last year. His WAR from last year would have been third best among Twins position players, and he would have led the team in RBIs by 20. I'm assuming the Twins have scouts and front office types who follow players and make judgements before they sign them.
  10. arby58
    Hoskins signed a 2 year, $34 million contract with Milwaukee, first year $16 million. Justin Turner signed a 1 year, $13 million contract with Toronto. Santana's contract is for a little over $5 million. Do you sense a disparity here?
  11. arby58
    His 'couple nice weeks in April' was 19 games, 7 HR, 14 RBI and an OPS of 1.063. As that baseball philosopher Kirkegaard (that's a joke, by the way) so aptly put it 'life (aka a baseball season) can only be understood backward but must be lived forward.' It's easy, with the benefit of hindsight, to say they should have pulled the plug on Gallo sooner, but after 19 games he looked like their now-found clean-up hitter, and he kept hitting home runs throughout the season (tied for second on the team for the year, in 282 at bats). He started 83 games - it's not like they played him every day, either.
  12. arby58
    Some people are half full types, and I won't apologize for being one of them. The above is the equivalent of 'half empty' thinking. So the 'nice 32 year old relief pitcher had one year of success' - which happened to be last year, and it was very successful, and done in high leverage situations for a play-off contending team. The one-time slugging first baseman/DH who should help more as a coach' had a WAR last year that would have been third best on the Twins - and he would have led them in RBIs by 20. Given what may be new-found revenue, they also may not be done. Meanwhile, no additional value is provided for what should be full seasons by very productive rookies from last year. Yes, the starting pitching isn't as strong, but you hit as well as pitch. I believe this year's offense will be much improved over last year. All they have to replace offensively is the half year of Polanco and the full year of Taylor, which doesn't strike me as a heavy lift.
  13. arby58
    I agree with your general perspective, but Gallo wasn't struggling at the start of the year - he was their best hitter. It's a lot harder to 'back off' a player when they had put up the early numbers that Gallo did. They eventually did. For all the complaining about him (mostly legitimate), he was good defensively and put up a league average OPS (power hitting helps with that) and a 101 OPS+.
  14. arby58
    You can play the 'what if' game all day, but you're forgetting, in your example, that Gallo started off red hot, and even with his end of year collapse, he still had, for the season, a league average OPS and 101 OPS+. Besides, last year Santana, hit 23 HR, had 86 RBI and a 103 OPS+. The Twins took a flyer on Gallo, who in 2022 had an OPS+ of 79 - they are far different situations, and Miranda still has something to prove based on last year.
  15. arby58
    Can't complain about the signing - he is a steady, professional hitter who has accumulated 35.5 WAR and added 2.7 to that total last year. You always worry when they get into their late 30s, but 2023 was, in some ways, ,an uptick for him. He will bring a slightly different approach to at bats, and that could be helpful. Let's hope he is another Nelson Cruz.
  16. arby58
    Agreed, and I was thinking about making a similar point. I used the $26 vs. $90 million comparison because that is what the article used.
  17. arby58
    Polanco wasn't in that type of insane amount of money situation - he was making around $500,000 a year back then. While that is nothing to sneeze at, if he had a career-ending injury, it wouldn't mean he didn't have to find something else to do with his life. For him, it was a real choice.
  18. arby58
    I agree with everything you wrote except for this. Of course, what constitutes a 'GOOD starter' is subjective (I'll define it as a #3 starter), but I doubt any team is giving up their #3 starter for two years of Polanco's projected stat line, taking into consideration age and injury concerns.
  19. arby58
    It's an interesting choice: contract for a sure $26 million or bet that you'll stay healthy, perform well, and perhaps make $90 million over time. I'd bet that most people would take the $26 million.
  20. arby58
    Sure, have him in the lineup. However, when looking for the optimal alignment - combining both offense and defense - I don't think Julien at first base is it.
  21. arby58
    It's a stretch to refer to Julien as a 1Bman. Last year, he played 17 innings for the Twins at first base. By contrast, he played 535 innings at second base. The year before, at AA, he played only second base. Yes, in 2021, he played all over - outfield, first base, second base, third base - but the position he played the most innings at was second base. It sounds to me like the Twins determined that second base was his best position. IMHO, playing 17 innings combined over 2 years at first base doesn't make you a first baseman.
  22. arby58
    I suppose, but my understanding is that Julien has been working hard on his defense and has improved considerably. Kirilloff has some inherent advantages defensively versus Julien - he is two inches taller and throws left-handed (even though Julien bats left handed, he throws right handed). Julien's experience at first base is also limited. I'd much rather he turn into a passable defensive second baseman, as his comparative advantage at the plate is more likely at second than first base.
  23. arby58
    Alex is quickly becoming an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The point about not a lot of HRs in over 700 plate appearances is valid, but he can really smoke the ball at times - somewhat streaky. I was at a Triple A game in Des Moines when Kirilloff was doing his rehab work, and in one game he hit two home runs and a ringing double that went to the deepest part of the ballpark. I was in a left field box when one of his home runs smashed off the facing above us, and left a notable dent that workers above us had to fix between innings.
  24. arby58
    It really is an excellent article.
  25. arby58
    I think it's that the Twins want him to get more experience. DeSclafini has started 169 games in MLB, Varland 15. He'll get his opportunities in time, and they are both in some ways an insurance policy - we know the Twins are not going to use 5 starting pitchers the entire season (not 6, either).
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