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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    It's a good point, if it matters. The April average high/low temperature in Wichita is 71/43, and in St. Paul it is 58/36.
  2. arby58
    I assume 'willing to get rid of' means players acquired by trade. By that 'logic' we would dismiss the performances of, in the past, Gray, Lopez, Ryan, and Duran - all acquired by trade. The Twins have picked up some bullpen arms that way for this year - we can only hope that Topa and Okert are similar performing 'guys other teams were willing to get rid of.'
  3. arby58
    It's rumor season.
  4. arby58
    These suggested trades provide strong evidence that recreational marijuana is legal in Minnesota.
  5. arby58
    In the Falvey era, the Twins top picks have generally been position players - Lewis, Larnach, Lee being prominent examples. One pitcher who was a first round pick, Petty, was traded for two years of Gray (fine by me). Reya was taken in the fourth round in 2020, and he still has a shot. Like it or not, the Twins seem relatively risk averse to starting pitching at the top of the draft and prefer to trade for it.
  6. arby58
    Only if he can improve his control - a relief pitcher with 52 BB in 91 innings is not going to cut it.
  7. arby58
    Ober has the advantage of being 6'9", so he delivers the ball from a fairly unique angle and has a release point closer to the batter, which 'speeds up' his fastball in comparison to Headrick or most other pitchers.
  8. arby58
    Assume it is '10 batters per nine innings' because it would be practically impossible to strike out 10 batters per inning. I'll admit to thinking Headrick was in a bit over his head last year. Maybe a third pitch will improve his chances.
  9. arby58
    It's pretty interesting that the TOP 3 all missed the play-offs. Didn't correlate all that well last year. Diamondbacks in the World Series doesn't sound very convincing for your correlation either.
  10. arby58
    Rose bet on MLB, and an investigation found he bet on at least 50 Reds games in 1987, at a minimum of $10,000 per day, according to Bleacher Report. I know keeping jerks out of the HOF would be an impossible task, but when you so blatantly flout the rules of the game, there are consequences. Fine with me if it also keeps Beltran out of the HOF.
  11. arby58
    I like a lot of these - although I'm thinking more like 88-90 wins. The one I'd take you on is still Buxton (and I'm a big fan of his). Only 1 season with more than 92 games played makes it tough to expect 120. The big one though - he's never had more than 51 RBI - expecting a 50 percent increase is brave. So sign me up for the under on that bet in its entirety.
  12. arby58
    So you want them to sign Montgomery, but you aren't frustrated because the payroll went down? How are those compatible? I also highly doubt that Montgomery is signing a one-year contract with anybody. He may sign a three year deal with player options, but that is not a one-year contract. It is also not going to be for peanuts.
  13. arby58
    This is serious cherry picking. Why did you stop at 10? The answer is because only 6 of the top 15 - those above the league average - made the play-offs. In other words, you had teams with below average payrolls making the play-offs as often as those with above average payrolls. The White Sox were 15th and the Twins 16th, go figure. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2023/
  14. arby58
    Mine too. If they have too many players for the middle infield and third base, use that capital for other positions. Julien is not a first baseman - the Twins appear to have learned that at A-ball level, as he hasn't really played it since (other than a cameo with the Twins). Besides, he and Kirilloff are both left handed hitters who rake RHP and don't do nearly as well against LHP. No reason to think Julien is a better fit there than Kirilloff.
  15. arby58
    Which means the Twins must be pretty good as well. I agree - the young talent that is now stranded at St. Paul could have started for the Twins a few years ago. The 'good' news is it's a long season, and there will be injuries.
  16. arby58
    First, KirilIoff 'showed his game' last year when not injured, especially against RHP, with an OPS of .858. Given that Lee is also considerably better against RHP, they are not a logical platoon, so i doubt they are in competition for a spot, Lee has not played first base in college or the minor leagues, and some of his value is as a defensive player. Second, the Twins seem pretty set on second base being Julien's best position, and I don't see them moving either around.
  17. arby58
    60 day? Both of them? I'd take that bet.
  18. arby58
    That was not the way the Twins rolled last year - both Ober and Varland were called up after other starters went on IL rather than juggling the rotation. I get the feeling the Twins prefer to maintain that sort of regularity - which also can give their key starters a bit of a break now and then (in terms of extra days between starts), which may help them later in the year.
  19. arby58
    Some of the worst owners of major league sports franchises are those that treat it like a hobby toy. The Dan Snyders of the world make horrible decisions that they can justify because it's their money that they are losing. In baseball, you can pretty well slot teams into categories based on the size of their market and potential revenue. Teams don't get out of their slots all that often, and the Twins have generally aligned with where you would expect them to be. Until baseball imposes a salary cap (maybe never), if you want to pull for the big money spenders, you know where to go. As I have noted before, it doesn't necessarily guarantee success - the three teams with the largest payrolls in MLB last year all missed the play-offs.
  20. arby58
    The conversation about Santana playing close to every day doesn't have to mean he takes ABs from Kirilloff - I specifically said he would not elsewhere on this topic. However, if they are both in the lineup, my guess is Kirilloff is DH, because Santana is a better first baseman. This 'never against righties' for Santana is hyperbolic - he had a 98 OPS+ against RHP last year and hit 17 home runs. The 'never against a handed pitcher' is Kirilloff and LHP, where he had a .482 OPS last year.
  21. arby58
    Baseball Reference dot com. for WAR. The rest of the stats are public knowledge - he had a good year last year in terms of HRs, RBIs, OPS+. Maybe the Twins actually scouted him a bit and went further than looking at prior year stats?
  22. arby58
    Kirilloff last year was horrible against LHP - .482 OPS.
  23. arby58
    This team sort of reminds me of the Timberwolves. Last season, after the Rudy trade, they underperformed but still made the play-offs - but both Rudy and KAT were hurt off and on and never really got the chance to jell. The T-wolves made one (seemingly inconsequential) trade, picking up a 'past his prime' point guard (Conley), and there was a fair amount of criticism of the front office. This year, of course, they have the second-best record in the NBA and have already matched their win total from last year. Why? Healthy Rudy and KAT, emergence of a superstar in Ant, and that 'old guy' Conley runs the offense very well and contributes clutch baskets. Twins, if they have healthy seasons from Correa and Buxton, and if some of the 'old guys' (ala Santana or various pitchers) contribute, they could be in a similar situation. It is entirely possible that Royce Lewis could be on a superstar track this year (again, if he can avoid injuries), and young pitchers (I think Ober in particular) can be expected to progress. Yes, that is a lot of 'ifs' but the T-wolves show how it can work out.
  24. arby58
    I think that is a little harsh. Last year, he had 2.7 WAR - would have tied for 3rd on the Twins. He had 23 HR, only Kepler's 24 were more for the Twins. He had 86 RBI - that would have been first on the Twins (by 20!). He had a 103 OPS+, meaning he was above league average. Throw in a good glove at first base, and it doesn't look like time has 'passed him' yet. Granted, it may this year, but that would not be based on last year's performance.
  25. arby58
    I assume Santana will play close to 100 percent of the time against LHP (and Kirilloff not very much, given his .482 OPS against them last year) and play first base. I agree that Kirilloff will be in the line-up against RHP close to 100 percent of the time. While I don't think Santana will take AB from Kirilloff against RHP, he wasn't that bad last year against them - he hit 17 HRs off them and had an OPS+ of 98. IF he is in the line-up against a RHP, he'll generally play 1B and Kirilloff will probably DH. Santana is a better 1B defensively. At least that's my take on it.
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