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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Agree that Duvall is a far better defensive outfielder than Soler and has played a little first base (Soler never has), so he provides that platoon option as well. Duvall hasn't played more than 92 games in a season since 2021 and has had hand and wrist injury issues. He's also 3 1/2 years older. Both players strike out a lot and have had their ups and downs - probably not surprising they are still waiting around for 'the right offer.'
  2. arby58
    At first I thought you were referring to Taylor, who had 21 HR but only 51 RBIs, but I see you were referring to Eddie Rosario. I dunno, between the two, I think I'd rather have Taylor, just for the sake of my sanity.
  3. arby58
    Topa's strikeouts per inning are almost exactly those of Pagan last year - which is the role he will likely play (solid innings eater, some high leverage situations). He is a ground ball pitcher, and situationally that is something the Twins don't have much in the bullpen. Suggesting Polanco was their '2 hole hitter' - where was he going to play? Julien is their second baseman. Julien hit for a higher average, better OPS and OPS+ than Polanco, he's younger and has more upside potential. Besides, if your '2 hole hitter' is .789 OPS, your offense is in trouble. Polanco didn't fare well at third base, and you have to assume Buxton gets most of the ABs at DH. You can only play 9 at a time.
  4. arby58
    We have decent chances to be #2 or #3 in Ober and Ryan. Paddack is probably going to be too innings-limited to reach that level.
  5. arby58
    As somebody else pointed out, Farmer is a viable platoon option if they keep him (more likely now than yesterday). Granted, it was only 48 plate appearances (about 10 percent of his total), but Julien's splits against LHP were not good. .447 OPS versus .898; no HRs versus 16; 2 walks versus 62; 1 RBI versus 36.
  6. arby58
    Julien at first doesn't pair well with Kirilloff, since they are both left-handed batters. Julien and Lee aren't a great platoon option either, as Lee hasn't shown the ability (at least yet) to rake left handed pitching. That part still makes me wonder how it all shakes out - and reinforces my belief (and others on this board as well) that their primary target will be a right handed bat, either a corner outfielder or first baseman/DH type.
  7. arby58
    Nice analysis - I had the same general belief that he would fill a Pagan-like role. in fact, both Pagan and Topa threw 69 innings last year. Griffin Jax threw 65 and Duran 62, so they effectively replaced their relief 'innings eater.' One difference is Topa had a 2.61 ERA, while Pagan's was a slightly higher 2.99 (admittedly inflated a bit by one really bad outing).
  8. arby58
    Agreed. Stated another way, they could have had Polo for two years, $23 million combined, at ages 32-33, or keep Julien and promote Lee (both 6 years of control, minimal salaries the first two years). Julien already had a better year than Polo last year and is 25 years old, while Lee is their #2 prospect and 2 years younger. This was a no brainer from the start of the off-season.
  9. arby58
    A better comparison for Justin Topa would be Brock Stewart. Besides, Topa threw 69 innings last year in 75 games. He was a high leverage relief pitcher on a team with a strong bullpen. He wouldn't be the first relief pitcher to figure it out later in his career.
  10. arby58
    It's a good question. Agree JD or Adam would be a nice bat to have. Part of it is how confident are they that BB really can play half-time in CF. If not, I'm thinking outfield.
  11. arby58
    The home/away question is interesting. That year, he was 8-3 at home with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.073 WHIP. On the road, he was 5-4, 3.22 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, slightly better at home. Interestingly his strike out rate was better away. The one area that does stand out was he gave up 4 home runs at home, and 15 on the road.
  12. arby58
    The Athletic quotes Falvey as saying they will spend the saved money from the deal, but it might be for a position player. My guess is they are targeting an actual centerfielder or a right handed hitting first baseman. I agree with you about Varland. He combined to throw 150 innings last year between AAA and the Twins, so he's more than capable of being an every day starting pitcher. He's got the stuff, probably just needs a bit more experience.
  13. arby58
    Topa's first three years at the major league level only amounted to a total of 18 innings. Last year, he was a key piece of Seattle's bullpen, 75 games, 69 innings pitched, 2.61 ERA. That innings pitched and ERA stat line compares favorably with every pitcher in the Twins 2023 bullpen not named Duran, Saying 'he's only had one decent year' is the kind of thing you could also say about the Twins Brock Stewart.
  14. arby58
    He's two seasons removed from a 13-7, 31 starts, 168 innings pitched and 3.19 ERA season. He had a couple other decent years as a starting pitcher before that. Granted, the last two years have been injury-filled, but I'd assume the Twins have had the opportunity to 'look under the hood.' If he is healthy, he may well be part of the rotation, at least at some point in the year. They'll probably need 7 or 8 starting pitchers by the end of the season anyway. They traded for him, so it's a little different from some of the free agent pitcher 'dumpster dives' of the past.
  15. arby58
    ESPN grades the trade A- for the Twins and C for the Mariners. Apparently a lot of baseball people aren't as high on Polanco, after various injuries, 'coming into his prime.' If the Twins are going to promote Lee, there simply aren't enough at bats at second base for Lee and Julien plus Polanco. This is when his trade value is highest, given his two years of team control. Polanco was going to be moved. The relief pitcher the Twins got strikes me as the key piece (besides the top 100 prospect). It suggests they plan to leave Varland in the rotation rather than putting him in 7th or 8th inning roles (which is where the Mariners used Topa). The back end of the bullpen, with Stewart, Theilbar, Jax, Topa, and Duran, looks strong and deep.
  16. arby58
    ESPN grades the trade as an A- for the Twins and a C for the Mariners. Desclafini is probably the third piece from the Twins perspective. As ESPN writes, "Topa was a major contributor last season for a bullpen that finished with the fourth-best ERA in the majors, posting a 2.61 ERA over 75 appearances." They also refer to Gonzalez as 'a prospect of some note.'
  17. arby58
    I've long felt they would deal Polanco but not Kepler - they have far less depth in the outfield than the infield and few corner outfielders 'on the verge' in AAA. I still feel that way.
  18. arby58
    Yeah, let's not give them credit for putting together a decent team last year and one with a bunch of exciting young players this year. I was to games last year and had a great time - I expect the same this year. But I'll stay home to 'prove a point.' Not.
  19. arby58
    Polanco is a good player, but he's got injury concerns as well, isn't getting any younger, and is no more than an average defender. Topa was a decent reliever last year, and DeSclafini has had his moments. With a decent prospect and Seattle sending back some salary money, it seems about right. I was reading a transcript of a chat about baseball trade rumors, and the expert who does these made the point that hometown fans often overvalue their players for trade purposes. It takes two to make a trade, and my guess this is about Polanco's value at the moment.
  20. arby58
    The difference with Morris is they didn't have to trade for his one year of control, so it wasn't a zero sum game. Here, you would be giving up a hitter who figures to be batting at the top of the order in 2024 - that's pretty important too.
  21. arby58
    I don't doubt he is a great pitcher, and I actually think FanGraphs rating of him (19) is a bit low - but he's not top 5. Yes, I would love to have him on the Twins, but I think people are undervaluing Julien as an asset. A rookie who puts up a 130 OPS+ (and not a super small sample) is pretty impressive. By comparison, Luis Arraez' OPS+ last year was 133 - and, as already mentioned, All-Star Semien's was 122. I've heard some people raise the specter of Jose Miranda, and sure, that's possible (although Miranda was hurt last year). Still, Miranda's 2022 season carried an OPS+ of 114 - still considerably below 130. Miranda also had 483 plate appearances to Julien's 338, yet Julien hit one more home run and scored 15 more runs. Julien had a far better season in 2023 than Miranda in 2022. Yes, 'the future is now' but Julien is part of the 'now' and six years of his 'now' is worth far more than one of Burnes.
  22. arby58
    Interesting to see how 'over 6 innings a start' aligns with Fan Graphs. There were 13 pitchers who pitched at least 6 innings per game last year. Nine of them ranked in the FanGraphs top 20, where Burnes was 19th.
  23. arby58
    He had 408 plate appearances for the Twins and another 170 for St. Paul. They weren't hiding him much. He was also a rookie - you would expect some additional improvement, as he was only 24 last year.
  24. arby58
    Based on 2023 performance, FanGraphs places him 19th. For them, number one was Wheeler, Gray was 4th, Cole 5th, Lopez 10th, Snell 14th, just to name some well known names.
  25. arby58
    Last year, in about 2/3rds of a full year of at bats, Julien had WAR of 2.6. He also had a 130 OPS+, which compares nicely to Texas Rangers star second baseman Marcus Semien's 122 from last year. So, extrapolate that WAR to a full season and you get 3.9. Burnes is a fine pitcher, and his 10-8 record, 194 IP, 200 Ks, etc. resulted in a WAR of 3.5. Sorry, I'm not giving up six years of team control of a player with Julien's level of performance for one year of 30 starts by Burnes.
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