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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    The movie title 'Trouble with the Curve' springs immediately to mind. Until Larnach proves he can hit that pitch, the only pitcher types I'd regularly start him against are Joe Ryan types (and he currently doesn't get to hit against Ryan).
  2. arby58
    They didn't re-sign a number of older players as well - Keuchel (36), Solano (36), Maeda (35), Gray (34), Taylor (32), Gallo (30) - and traded Polanco (30). Meanwhile, Topa is 32, DeSclafani is 33, Jackson 36, and Santana 38. Not that much different than last year.
  3. arby58
    Do you honestly think this example means the Twins 'front office is not 'remotely competent?' Maybe a little balance in your thinking? It's the same FO that traded for Gray and Lopez (both trades leading to a fair amount of criticism), and drafted the young core of players they now have. Besides, the Twins as a team were not hitting first half of the year - who would have performed all that much better at that time?
  4. arby58
    The 'one good year in the last four' was last year. His WAR from last year would have been third best among Twins position players, and he would have led the team in RBIs by 20. I'm assuming the Twins have scouts and front office types who follow players and make judgements before they sign them.
  5. arby58
    Hoskins signed a 2 year, $34 million contract with Milwaukee, first year $16 million. Justin Turner signed a 1 year, $13 million contract with Toronto. Santana's contract is for a little over $5 million. Do you sense a disparity here?
  6. arby58
    His 'couple nice weeks in April' was 19 games, 7 HR, 14 RBI and an OPS of 1.063. As that baseball philosopher Kirkegaard (that's a joke, by the way) so aptly put it 'life (aka a baseball season) can only be understood backward but must be lived forward.' It's easy, with the benefit of hindsight, to say they should have pulled the plug on Gallo sooner, but after 19 games he looked like their now-found clean-up hitter, and he kept hitting home runs throughout the season (tied for second on the team for the year, in 282 at bats). He started 83 games - it's not like they played him every day, either.
  7. arby58
    Some people are half full types, and I won't apologize for being one of them. The above is the equivalent of 'half empty' thinking. So the 'nice 32 year old relief pitcher had one year of success' - which happened to be last year, and it was very successful, and done in high leverage situations for a play-off contending team. The one-time slugging first baseman/DH who should help more as a coach' had a WAR last year that would have been third best on the Twins - and he would have led them in RBIs by 20. Given what may be new-found revenue, they also may not be done. Meanwhile, no additional value is provided for what should be full seasons by very productive rookies from last year. Yes, the starting pitching isn't as strong, but you hit as well as pitch. I believe this year's offense will be much improved over last year. All they have to replace offensively is the half year of Polanco and the full year of Taylor, which doesn't strike me as a heavy lift.
  8. arby58
    I agree with your general perspective, but Gallo wasn't struggling at the start of the year - he was their best hitter. It's a lot harder to 'back off' a player when they had put up the early numbers that Gallo did. They eventually did. For all the complaining about him (mostly legitimate), he was good defensively and put up a league average OPS (power hitting helps with that) and a 101 OPS+.
  9. arby58
    You can play the 'what if' game all day, but you're forgetting, in your example, that Gallo started off red hot, and even with his end of year collapse, he still had, for the season, a league average OPS and 101 OPS+. Besides, last year Santana, hit 23 HR, had 86 RBI and a 103 OPS+. The Twins took a flyer on Gallo, who in 2022 had an OPS+ of 79 - they are far different situations, and Miranda still has something to prove based on last year.
  10. arby58
    Can't complain about the signing - he is a steady, professional hitter who has accumulated 35.5 WAR and added 2.7 to that total last year. You always worry when they get into their late 30s, but 2023 was, in some ways, ,an uptick for him. He will bring a slightly different approach to at bats, and that could be helpful. Let's hope he is another Nelson Cruz.
  11. arby58
    Agreed, and I was thinking about making a similar point. I used the $26 vs. $90 million comparison because that is what the article used.
  12. arby58
    Polanco wasn't in that type of insane amount of money situation - he was making around $500,000 a year back then. While that is nothing to sneeze at, if he had a career-ending injury, it wouldn't mean he didn't have to find something else to do with his life. For him, it was a real choice.
  13. arby58
    I agree with everything you wrote except for this. Of course, what constitutes a 'GOOD starter' is subjective (I'll define it as a #3 starter), but I doubt any team is giving up their #3 starter for two years of Polanco's projected stat line, taking into consideration age and injury concerns.
  14. arby58
    It's an interesting choice: contract for a sure $26 million or bet that you'll stay healthy, perform well, and perhaps make $90 million over time. I'd bet that most people would take the $26 million.
  15. arby58
    Sure, have him in the lineup. However, when looking for the optimal alignment - combining both offense and defense - I don't think Julien at first base is it.
  16. arby58
    It's a stretch to refer to Julien as a 1Bman. Last year, he played 17 innings for the Twins at first base. By contrast, he played 535 innings at second base. The year before, at AA, he played only second base. Yes, in 2021, he played all over - outfield, first base, second base, third base - but the position he played the most innings at was second base. It sounds to me like the Twins determined that second base was his best position. IMHO, playing 17 innings combined over 2 years at first base doesn't make you a first baseman.
  17. arby58
    I suppose, but my understanding is that Julien has been working hard on his defense and has improved considerably. Kirilloff has some inherent advantages defensively versus Julien - he is two inches taller and throws left-handed (even though Julien bats left handed, he throws right handed). Julien's experience at first base is also limited. I'd much rather he turn into a passable defensive second baseman, as his comparative advantage at the plate is more likely at second than first base.
  18. arby58
    Alex is quickly becoming an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The point about not a lot of HRs in over 700 plate appearances is valid, but he can really smoke the ball at times - somewhat streaky. I was at a Triple A game in Des Moines when Kirilloff was doing his rehab work, and in one game he hit two home runs and a ringing double that went to the deepest part of the ballpark. I was in a left field box when one of his home runs smashed off the facing above us, and left a notable dent that workers above us had to fix between innings.
  19. arby58
    It really is an excellent article.
  20. arby58
    I think it's that the Twins want him to get more experience. DeSclafini has started 169 games in MLB, Varland 15. He'll get his opportunities in time, and they are both in some ways an insurance policy - we know the Twins are not going to use 5 starting pitchers the entire season (not 6, either).
  21. arby58
    I'm not averse to it, but the expectation is that Buxton is going to DH when he's not in CF. Given Martinez is also a right handed hitter, he becomes superfluous in those situations. Given the 26 man roster limitation, I'd expect they're looking for somebody with a little more positional flexibility (such as can play 1B and/or OF when tough lefthanders tempt them to sit Kirilloff or Wallner).
  22. arby58
    Miley has 18.7 lifetime WAR and 2.5 last year - Corbin Burnes' numbers are 13.5 and 3.5. Miley was 9-4, 3.14 ERA in 23 starts and 120 innings pitched last year. Those aren't bottom feeder numbers.
  23. arby58
    Everybody has their preferences, and he did catch fire in a World Series. That said, the next year his OPS was .587.
  24. arby58
    With the signings of Miley and Hoskins, Milwaukee appears to be trying to make a deep play-off run rather than shedding near-term assets, which is another reason I doubt a Burnes trade - and with Polanco gone, offering up Lee or Julien as a key part of that trade becomes more iffy. The White Sox are a mess so, IMHO, more likely to center on a package of high value prospects. I assume Jenkins and now Lee are untouchable, but probably everybody else is part of the conversation. I know teams don't like to trade within the division, but if you are the White Sox, you don't realistically expect to be competing for a division title the next couple of years, so what's the big harm?
  25. arby58
    I guess I don't understand the not Taylor comment about playing every day for long stretches - he played 129 games for the Twins last year, which suggests he was close to an everyday player (at least in today's baseball). Granted, he was much better against right handed pitching (149 OPS+ versus 80), but the glove makes up for some of that.
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