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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    He's at high A, and the Twins have a better hitting (and still decent defensively) SS at AAA. They can take their time with Houston - and seeing them both in the Twins defensive lineup together would be a huge improvement over the current situation.
  2. arby58
    Interesting. Who was first? Ted Williams? He had an amazing career OBP.
  3. arby58
    Carew's .388 BA season also seems untouchable. Also, in today's era, Kaat's 25 wins in a season looks pretty untouchable.
  4. arby58
    Wonderful equivocation. I predicted the Twins would be well over 62 wins at the start of the season. Are you moving off your prediction or not?
  5. arby58
    It is hard to claim the Twins lack clutch hitting through their first 19 games - they have a higher than average runs scored when in scoring position. Taking one game and suggesting that proves the claim is, statistically speaking, lame.
  6. arby58
    Every team has these games throughout a 162 game season. If you really are still forecasting a 61 win team, I'll take the over on that bet.
  7. arby58
    His role is understood to be a defensive replacement or pinch runner and the occasional start in CF when Buxton gets a day off or is DHing. My guess is if Buxton were to go on the IL, there would be a callup, probably Emma, as he is a better CF than Roden.
  8. arby58
    Tonight is another example. Abel had a 6-0 lead after 81 pitches through 6 innings. I am 95% certain Rocco would have called it a night for him. Instead, Shelton sent him back out and he had a 9 pitch 7th inning. Keep in mind that Abel has been their 'weakest link' so far - why wouldn't you just call it a great night after 6 innings? I'm pretty sure that is what Rocco would have done. Instead, he gets the 7th and finishes it off in style with 10 Ks. It's great for his confidence.
  9. arby58
    4/15, 5-0 lead, Ober pulled after 77 pitches. 6/3, 5-2 lead, Lopez pulled after 72 pitches. 6/19, 9-4 lead after 4 innings, Paddock pulled after 82 pitches. 6/26, 10-0 lead after 6, SWR pulled after 82 pitches. 8/1, 8-1 lead after 3, Hatch pulled after 81 pitches. 8/8, 7-1 lead after 4, Ryan pulled after 87 pitches. My guess is with those leads, Shelton sends them back out for another inning. Keep in mind the Twins weren't a great offensive team so didn't have all that many big leads last year. Next I'll look at close games and see what that looks like.
  10. arby58
    OTOH, Rocco had Ryan AND Lopez at the top of the rotation. Shelton has let Taj Bradley throw 92, 100, 104, and 106 pitches in his four starts. For context, the Twins had a starting pitcher throw 100 pitches in 28 of 162 games last year (17%). They've already done it 6 times in 17 games (35%). Even with big leads, Rocco had a quick hook, Shelton not so much.
  11. arby58
    I wasn't a Rocco hater, but there is something more stable about Shelton's managing of the team. In particular, he is giving his starting pitchers more opporunity to pitch further in the game than Rocco. Through 17 games, the starter has gone 100+ pitches 6 times (4 different starters at least once) and 90+ an additional 4 times. In contrast, through 17 games last year it was 2 for 100+ pitches and 2 for 90+. I'm sure Rocco would have pulled Ober after the 5th inning last night, and Bradley last time probably after the 4th. My guess is his pitchers are happy about how he's handling them. Sure, Ober gave up a couple of runs in the 6th, but he had a chance for a quality start - anybody really think Rocco would have done that? Same with the lineup - people pretty much know where they are going to hit, and mostly where they are going to play. It's sort of reassuring.
  12. arby58
    Right now, the Twins have a far better record in MLB than the Saints in AAA - and other than Prielipp, none of the listed players is exactly tearing it up. No need for reinforcements at the moment.
  13. arby58
    Ryan has another year of control, and the Twins could be very well in contention next year. They may part ways with Jeffers later this year, but I highly doubt it with Ryan.
  14. arby58
    Y'all need to fix the Bullpen Usage Report, as it is not adding in the pitchers who pitched in the last game into the totals.
  15. arby58
    Martin has far more speed so doesn't clog up the bases on a single the way Arraez did/does. Arraez does have more pop - career slugging percentage of .413 versus Martin's .356. I think a better comparable is Steven Kwan, as they are both primarily left fielders with some speed and similar OBP/Slugging Percentage.
  16. arby58
    Sure, Martin makes more contact and has a higher BA. Now put the runner at 1B. Wallner has 5 extra base hits so far, Martin 1. It all depends on the situation.
  17. arby58
    Show me where I said he 'was a natural in the OF' and I'll respond. I pointed out that suggesting he was 'forced' into the OF by the Twins doesn't match up with his college or Toronto minor league experience. Toronto did not 'start him out mainly at 2B' - he split time almost evenly between SS and OF. Playing OF at a college power like Vanderbilt should not be dismissed. It's why he was placed at AA after his junior year there. It is notable that the 2019 Vanderbilt team has six players playing in MLB. They don't put players into pedestrian positions - they are playing to win national titles (which they did while Martin was a sophomore).
  18. arby58
    Martin played far more in the outfield than at second base at Vanderbilt. He didn't play 2B at all his freshman year (but played 18 games at 1B, 9 at 3B and 28 in the outfield, as well as 2 at SS and 4 at C). His sophomore year, he was primarily at 3b (51 games) but also 18 at 2B and 4 at 1B. His final year at Vanderbilt, he again didn't play games at 2B and played primarily in the OF. In the minors for Toronto, he split time about evenly between SS and OF, with no time at 2B. So, it's hard for me to accept the premise that Martin is primarily a 2B and was 'forced' into the OF by the Twins.
  19. arby58
    A .500 OBP is world class. The only two players with a .500 OBP (but far more at bats than Martin's 30) so far this year are Yordan Alvarez and Ben Rice. Unlike Martin, they both have unreal slugging percentages as well - .755 and .756 respectively. As the article notes, there are few players whose OBP is higher than their slugging percentage. In 2026, the only comparable outfielder in terms of overall OPS is Randy Arozarena (.426/.400), alhtough Kyle Tucker (.343/.316) and Steven Kwan (.338/.333) also qualify, albeit with lower OPS. Interestingly, other players this applies to in 2026 are Boby Witt Jr. (.371/322) and Victor Caratini (.345/.283), although my bet is on Witt to turn that around the balance of the year. It's possible that Kwan is a comparable to Martin, and if so, my guess is the Twins will take it.
  20. arby58
    First, I know the group very well - I wrote a post awhile back about the fact they called up a bunch of players in 1982, and that was the foundation for later success. Keep in mind, however, that team went 60-102. I think the Twins aim for higher this year. Also, both Puckett (who was called up in 1984) and Viola were called up from AAA.
  21. arby58
    That isn't the point. Did you even read my rationale?
  22. arby58
    Gonzalez is not a CF, and Jenkins still hasn't shown much against AAA pitching. I'm pretty sure Emma would be called up if Buxton goes on the IL (but definitely not interested in that happening). Same with Roden if/when a corner outfielder hits the IL. In the meantime, getting them everyday ABs is more important than bringing them up to play a couple times a week.
  23. arby58
    As Seneca pointed out "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." Ryan goes 7 against a good hitting team,Kreidler makes a great defensive play, Larnach hits a three-run HR off a lefthanded pitcher, and the Twins score 7 runs. Their glass was far more full than empty.
  24. arby58
    Outman is not playing many innings. Emma, in particular, hasn't played that many MiLB innings because of injury. My guess is they want both Emma and Roden playing close to every day, not a couple times a week. If/when somebody goes on the IL, sure, bring them up then, but replacing Outman's innings right now isn't that big a deal.
  25. arby58
    Correa, to date, has a .716 OPS. He's not exactly setting the MLB world on fire.
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