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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Well, Miller's batting average and OBP in June was .192 and .241, so pretty easy to go up from there. His OPS still bounced around and was .653 for the year. The prior year, at Fort Meyers, his OPS for the year was .627. By contrast, De Andrade at Fort Meyers last year (both in their age 19 season) had an OPS of .750. It's hard to say that Miller is ahead of De Andrade offensively. We'll see how it shakes out.
  2. arby58
    The hitting part is the rub. The top teams these days get offense as well as defense from their shortstops. You're right about the fielding part, though.
  3. arby58
    He'll be 20 in April, so it would seem a reasonable progression for him to play most or even all of this year at Cedar Rapids. He could even do a year at AA and at AAA and still arrive in time for the Twins to make a decision about where Correa plays.
  4. arby58
    I don't understand the value to the Twins in somehow reducing the cost of you attending a game where the Angels get all the revenue.
  5. arby58
    Thinking beyond this year, if Canterino and Varland emerge, that could be a really nice, relatively young and not super expensive starting rotation in 2025.
  6. arby58
    There are very few MLB veteran players who have had no injury issues - 162 games is a grind, and pitching, in particular is really tough on a body. So yeah, expect trips to the IL, but it isn't just the recent Twins history, it is baseball as a whole.
  7. arby58
    I like Canterino as well - it would be great if he could stay a starting pitcher, as we don't have nearly as much depth there as in the bullpen.
  8. arby58
    The eye test with Stewart - there were games last year where I almost felt sorry for the hitters, they were so over-matched. Unless injuries pull him down (and that is very possible), I doubt much regression, as his stuff is overpowering. The good news this year is they have far more depth than last year.
  9. arby58
    I've said this before - you could say the same thing about Brock Stewart. Topa was a high leverage guy for a team with a very good bullpen last year. If the question is 'what have you done for me lately?' he had a really good answer in 2023.
  10. arby58
    It's a good point - and part of why the Twins were willing to part with some prospect talent in recent years to acquire MLB players. The Gray trade worked out, Mahle and Jorge Lopez not so much. That said, there are only 26 and 40 spots, so moving some on occasion, even if it doesn't work out, is ok when you have a decent pipeline.
  11. arby58
    One ranking that wasn't mentioned was ESPN. They rank the Twins farm system as number 9. That is higher than those discussed here.
  12. arby58
    What about Ober suggests he has 'more injury risk than say guys that have had two or three or four years without a major injury?' He wasn't on the IL last year for an injury. For that matter, when Kenta Maeda blew out his elbow, he would have been one of those pitchers who had 'two or three or four years without a major injury.' Suggesting Ober is part of the 'house of cards' is unwarranted.
  13. arby58
    Every pitcher just getting started in major league baseball is going to have 'the first year he threw that many innings.' When you put up the stat line he did last year, there is no way he is part of a house of cards.
  14. arby58
    How is Ober part of 'a house of cards?' He started 26 games for them, threw 144.1 innings. He started another 5 games at AAA and threw 22.2 innings there. Combined, he threw 167 innings without going on the IL, had a MLB WAR of 3.0, a 3.43 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.067. Other than Lopez, he is the starting pitcher who appears to be rock solid.
  15. arby58
    I agree that Varland will start at AAA. It's just terminology, but Varland was primarily a starter last year (between the Twins and Saints he started 25 games) - I don't think he needs to get 'stretched out' as much as keep using him as a starting pitcher.
  16. arby58
    Why not? If it's a one-year deal, the uncertainty about next year's TV contract isn't an issue. They clearly are getting more back on this year's deal than what they were talking about cutting from last year's budget. Tough choice - probably take Bellinger . . . no, wait, Snell . . . or Montgomery?
  17. arby58
    I've noted Arraez' shortcomings, but let's be real here. Last year, Arraez, in 574 ABs had a WAR of 4.9, an OPS of .861 and an OPS+ of 133. Julien, in 338 at bats had a WAR of 2.6, an OPS of .839, and an OPS+ of 130+. Given that OPS is weighted toward power, how is that? The answer is that Arraez' slugging percentage was 10 POINTS HIGHER than Julien's last year. Lee, of course, has yet to sniff the majors.
  18. arby58
    Luis Arraez was coming off a batting title - neither Lee or Julien has that sort of value at this point in time. Gray for Petty was not a starting pitcher for a position player, Cincinnati was in rebuild, and Gray was not coming off a particularly good year. I'm looking for a trade of a top prospect or a young position player for a #3 or better starting pitcher.
  19. arby58
    I'm ok with the starting rotation, but it's not because I think the #5 starters are collectively going to perform as well as the pitcher who finished second in Cy Young award balloting last year. Instead, I am confident Ober is going to have a breakout season - and if Ryan can stay healthy, he should be better as well. If you get upgrades from those two and the #5 starters do ok, you have a decent rotation. It may not match last year's but the bullpen has far better depth and options, so the pitching to me is a wash. It's the offense where they will be markedly better, IMHO.
  20. arby58
    Can you provide a comparable trade that supports your claim, but make it for at least a #3 starting pitcher - the Twins would be insane to trade a player who was 7th in ROY balloting or one of their top 2 prospects for a number 4 starting pitcher.
  21. arby58
    The two logical comparisons are Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Trout was 17 his first year, where he had 207 plate appearances between Rookie and Low A ball with an OPS of .905. Harper didn't play Rookie league ball, at 18 he started at low A and in 305 plate appearances put up an OPS of .977 - they then promoted him to AA, where it's not surprising that in 147 plate appearances the OPS dropped to .724. For comparison purposes, Jenkins, at age 18, had 115 plate appearances between Rookie and low A league ball and put up an OPS of .989. Next year will be interesting for comparison. Jenkins will be in his age 19 and first full season. At 19, Harper went to AAA and in 84 plate appearances had an OPS of .690 - nothing to write home about. The Nationals either saw something they like or promoted him out of necessity, and in 597 plate appearances he had an OPS of .817, with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases. Trout's age 18 progression was a bit more normal, as he started in low A, and in 368 plate appearances put up an OPS of .979 - more than enough to be promoted to high A, where in 232 plate appearances he put up an OPS of .821. My guess is this is sort of the path Jenkins follows for this year. Then, in his third (age 19 season), he started at AA, got a late-year call up to MLB. He started the next year at AAA for 93 plate appearances, had an OPS OF 1.091, was called up to MLB, and was rookie of the year with 30 HRs, 83 RBIs, 49 stolen bases, and an OPS of .963. I'd be perfectly fine with Jenkins following the Trout progression, which would mean the majors at age 21 versus Trout's 20. It would also mean a late season call-up in 2025 and then hitting the ball hard in MLB in 2026.
  22. arby58
    The 'get me somebody who already is' desire - hardly any pitcher ever starts from 'already is.' It is the natural progression that some of the younger pitchers will progress to 'already is' - and some of the 'already is' will regress to 'no longer is.' I'm fine with them projecting growth from Ober - and maybe also Ryan and Varland. Ober's stats, in particular, suggest he may well be 'already is.'
  23. arby58
    Yes, the Twins only scored an average of 3.71 runs in games Gray started. Ober was next on the list of 'non-support' - half his 24 starts the Twins scored 3 or fewer runs, for average run support of 4.17. At the other end of the spectrum, they were over 5 runs of support for Varland (5.06, and scored four or more in 7 of 10 starts), Ryan (5.37 and four or more runs in 17 of 29 starts), and Lopez (5.47 and four or more runs in 21 of 32 starts). It's why the won-loss record isn't always a great indicator. OTOH, Gray laid an egg in arguably the Twins' biggest post-season game, giving up 5 runs in 4 innings pitched against Houston in game 3 - after Lopez had pitched a gem in game 2.
  24. arby58
    I don't think there is much doubt on that. Last year Wallner, in 213 MLB at bats, hit 14 HRs, had a .877 OPS and 139 OPS+. Larnach, in 183 MLB at bats, hit 8 HRs, had a .727 OPS and a 98 OPS+. If I were the Twins, I'd still be looking for a right-handed batting OF who can credibly play CF. If Michael A. Taylor is still available, he would fit that description.
  25. arby58
    I've said it before and I'll say it again - Bailey Ober can be that 'another arm at the top of the rotation.' His stats compare pretty nicely with Gray's from last year. Yes, Gray had an 'other worldly' ERA AT 2.79, but Ober's 3.43 is plenty good as well. They both won 8 games, and while Gray's WAR (5.3) was much higher than Ober's 3.0, Ober only threw 144 innings to Gray's 184. They both averaged a K an inning, and Ober's WHIP was actually better (1.067 to 1.147). I think Ober was on the cusp of being a dominant pitcher last year until he sort of ran out of gas in September. If he is up to a bit larger workload, he has the tools to be a number 2 starter. I don't understand how the roster is not improved, either. The bullpen has much greater depth, which should offset less depth in starting pitching. The offense, with some return to form from Correa, a hoped-for better Buxton, and far more at bats for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner should be at least somewhat improved.
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