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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    The pitching pipeline last year provided more arms because it was a necessity. The same thing could happen with position players. MLB says the Twins top three prospects (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall) are all position players. Keaschall looks ready, and the other two aren't that far behind. I might trade Duran but wouldn't give up any of their top three starters.
  2. arby58
    Not for the minor league portion of the draft, which is what he was referring to.
  3. arby58
    It's not that bad. No Twins pitcher had an at bat in 2024, and they did use Jeffers as the DH in 34 games.
  4. arby58
    Again, this is one use per game, so the potential impact on statistics is pretty small. For that matter, you could make part of the rule that the Golden At Bat does not count for statistical purposes, if that is the deal breaker. Question: how exactly does the DH 'return the game to its roots?' Answer: it does not. As Heraclitus noted, 2,500 years ago, the only constant is change.
  5. arby58
    You can certainly take the 'what ifs' out of the equation within the rule. They did that with the DH - situations where the DH plays in the field and the pitcher then has to bat. I don't have a problem with the Witt situation described, but if that is the 'deal breaker' you could make it so that a player who is on base cannot be the Golden Bat. The 'hit too many homeruns' nonsense is the fallacy of absurdity.
  6. arby58
    I assume this could only be used once a game, so some of the concerns seem a bit hyperbolic. Tradition dies hard - the DH altered the fundamental fabric of the game as much or more than this, and baseball life went on. I find this less artificial than the runner on second base in extra innings - and it may well lead to less extra innings games. Bottom of the ninth, tie game situations, with the bottom of the order coming up could get potentially a lot more interesting.
  7. arby58
    Dodgers are reportedly signing him for 5 years, $182 million. Yeah, the Twins had a real shot at that one...
  8. arby58
    Please don't use Arraez as a positive comparison. Yes, Arraez hits for a high BA. His offensive contributions pretty much stop there. He was fourth in MLB in BA last year but could only manage a 1.1 WAR. He doesn't get many extra base hits, he doesn't run well, and as a result doesn't score many runs. He also has little value defensively. Jenkins will be better than that in every category but BA.
  9. arby58
    Newsflash: Dobnak can leave now - and he could have left last year. Why does he stick around? There are three million reasons, and he's not getting that contract elsewhere.
  10. arby58
    Larnach has had 958 career AB and produced a 3.2 cumulative WAR with 35 HR and an OPS of .726. Wallner has about half as many ABs (490), has produced a 4.2 WAR with 29 HR and an OPS of .866. Wallner is also a better outfielder and runner. Yes, he strikes out a lot, but he also crushes the ball when he makes contact. I'll take that over a spray hitter, especially considering the other factors.
  11. arby58
    No way they are going to burn a year (both of development and control) to have Emma as a fourth outfielder. If/when he comes up, he's going to play every day. Granted, Buxton's health is always an issue, and there is also the DH spot - but I also doubt they want to turn a 21 year old into a regular DHer.
  12. arby58
    I'm not sure I would label Larnach's 2024 performance as a 'strong season.' It was certainly better than prior years, but he strikes me as a fourth outfielder/DH type - he's not fleet of foot or a particularly good defensive outfielder. That said, he was better offensively than Kepler and I do think it's time to part company with Max. If that is the case, the Twins are a bit thin in terms of outfield depath, so I doubt Larnach is trade bait in the near future, as Rodriguez, for all his obvious talent, has to show an ability to hit big league pitching and stay healthy. I think it nearly impossible for the Twins to trade Rodriguez - the fan mutiny would be enormous, and the Twins likely would regret it for years to come.
  13. arby58
    The back-to-back extra innings losses to the Guardians September 18th and 19th convinced me they were not going to make the play-offs. They fell apart in extra innings games this year (5-9 record).
  14. arby58
    He has a 3.6 WAR in 79 games. A 4-5 WAR is generally considered All Star level, and he certainly could get to 4 by the end of the year.
  15. arby58
    I think either Correa or Lewis will eventually end up at first base. They are both tall enough (Lewis is 6'2 and Correa 6'4) to have the wingspan to handle errant throws. It'd be great to have Santana around for mentorship for another year, but I agree the Twins may wish to put money elsewhere (or not at all).
  16. arby58
    You're missing the part about Martin having an OPS of .669 and a -0.9 WAR (worst on the team). He has absolutely no value on offense and little value other than 'versatility' on defense.
  17. arby58
    I guess the obvious response is 'small sample size.' Of course, that doesn't mean you aren't on to something here. I certainly hope you are right.
  18. arby58
    Alex Kirilloff is a career 0.2 WAR. Santana is 37.4. His results this year 'slightly above average' in your perspective include among Twins players 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs, 2nd in total bases, and 5th in WAR, at 1.8. Kirilloff is -0.5 WAR. You really think the Twins should have stuck with him given his injuries and form? Santana has been huge in clutch positions - anything similar from Kirilloff? Nope.
  19. arby58
    I've been big on Bailey Ober for a long time, and I have suggested that he is perfectly capable of replacing Gray at (or near) the top of the Twins rotation for a long time. It's worth doing an update on how he is performing versus the pitcher he would 'replace' in that position, Sonny Gray. To date, Ober bests Gray in nearly every pitching category. They both have thrown about the same number of innings - Gray 135.2 and Ober 134. Ober has the better won-loss record, 12-5 to Gray's 11-8. Ober also has the better ERA, 3.49 to 3.91, and ERA+, 118 versus Gray's 108. Gray does best Ober in strikeouts, 168 to 140, but Ober has the better WHIP, 1.000 to 1.113. According to Baseball Reference, this works out to a 2.5 WAR for Ober, while Gray is basically half that much, at 1.2. A final feather in the Ober cap: Ober makes just under $762,000 this year, while Gray will make $10 million. You make the call - I'll take Ober.
  20. arby58
    I don't understand this comment. First, we've seen the (in)effectiveness of both Correa and Buxton when injured (and the number of injuries to Lewis), so the emphasis should be on getting them and keeping them healthy. I also fail to see how being 'less secret' about injuries is an issue - none of us has any effect on the games, and it may well be in the Twins benefit to not reveal some stuff. Bill Belichik was famously tight-lipped about injuries, and nobody ever claimed he didn't want to win.
  21. arby58
    Well, that was my original point, which I know you get. Teams that are in the play-offs or play-offs hunt aren't unloading potential assets. Paddock is still a potential asset come October (and also maybe next year) so he isn't going anywhere, and that is the right move by the Twins given their current station in MLB.
  22. arby58
    Taylor Rodgers, if that is what you are referring to, wasn't a 'good RP' the year they traded him. He went 4-8, 4.76 ERA, with an ERA+ OF 82. Those are awful/semi-awful for a relief pitcher.
  23. arby58
    Kirilloff looks like a player with a great future behind him. Of course, the same was said about Brent Rooker, I saw Kirilloff in a AAA game at Des Moines hit two monster home runs (one that hit off the facing above the left field boxes and required repair) and and a ringing double to the wall in center field. When he was on, he could rake, but he just hasn't been on that much. Seems like injuries are the issue, but there comes a point when you move on, and this seems like the point for the Twins. Maybe he makes it back elsewhere, and that's ok.
  24. arby58
    Lots of people thought we were trading a great closer for him, until Rodgers wasn't.
  25. arby58
    They've got a good core, it's not as if they need to chase starting pitching as long as they keep developing the young pitchers (that is what the Guardians have done for years). I don't see the payroll next year as a red flag.
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