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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Keirsey has been older than his competition from the beginning, but his OPS doesn't give much confidence he will perform well in MLB. Age 21 (older than competition) OPS was .798. Age 22 (older) .736. Age 23 (older) .733. COVID was age 23. Age 24 (older) .733. Age 25 (older) .724. Finally, at ages 26 and 27 (still older) he put up .821 and .845 respectively. Detect a pattern here? Any MLB regulars who put up pedestrian numbers through seven years in the minors? I can think of any Twin from the past who fits that profile. He is what he is - likely a AAA-fringe MLB player.
  2. arby58
    I've wondered about Larnach at 1B as well. He's 6'4", so he'd have good reach. He's not a great arm in the OF, and that isn't really a need at 1B.
  3. arby58
    The Twins have taken a shot on plenty of young players - Martin and Lee last year, Julien and Wallner the year before, Larnach the two years before that. That said, the Twins have put a premium on experience at key defensive positions - primarily SS, CF, and C. That doesn't strike me as an unsound preference.
  4. arby58
    I didn't lead with the 13 ABs - the issue is he is going to be 28, and he really didn't start performing at AA and AAA until he was older than the competition. That isn't a formula that suggests MLB regular. You didn't address that.
  5. arby58
    Keirsey will be 28 in May, and it wasn't until he was older than average at AA and AAA that he really started to hit - that's not super encouraging. He was 2 for 13 with the Twins last year, so his 'cup of coffee' was lukewarm at best. I suspect the Twins talent evaluators have had plenty of time to figure out what they have, given that he's been in the system since he was 21.
  6. arby58
    I 'get' that he still has value - his 2023 was excellent - but I wouldn't be giving him a 26 player roster spot until he shows some growth in his hitting approach. He didn't exactly tear up AAA last year either.
  7. arby58
    It's hard to not have disdain for a pedestrian (at best) defensive player who had a 74 OPS+ last year. Even Margot was better than that (76).
  8. arby58
    If the Rays want young pitching (they have plenty of established pitching but have done well by selling high and buying low), according to Baseball Trade Values, Matthews (15.0) and Culpepper (8.2) about balance out Diaz (22.5). I'm surprised they rate Julien as highly as they do (17.6), but the Rays have Brandon Loewe for that spot. Nobody really believes Julien is a bona fide 1B, right? If he were, we wouldn't be having this conversation. The Rays catching corps isn't anything to rave about - hmmm.
  9. arby58
    By all means, play him at 2B if you're going to keep him - as an outfielder last year he was -30 in defensive runs saved. You have to hit a lot better than he hits to put up with that level of 'defense.'
  10. arby58
    I'm still not sold on Martin. His outfield play is near-brutal, and his 2024 89 OPS+ and -1.0 WAR don't scream out MLB-worthy. If Emma has a decent spring training, my guess is he ends up in LF and Larnach spends a lot of time at DH.
  11. arby58
    Coulombe at least fills a need for a left-handed relief pitcher.
  12. arby58
    If you can't discern the difference between a 107 and a 74 OPS+ and a positive versus a negative WAR, you should give up.
  13. arby58
    Lewis had a positive WAR last year (0.7) and likely would have been higher but for the time missed to injury. Julien was -0.2, Lewis' OPS+ was 107, and Julien was 74. True, they both performed far better the year before, but Julien's 2024 was a complete bust.
  14. arby58
    In 40 games at 2B last year, Castro projected out to -13 defensive runs saved. Julien, in 90 games, projected out to -12 defensive runs saved. Suggesting he is a far superior defensive second baseman is speculative.
  15. arby58
    Castro was just an average hitter last year, and you would expect more at a position that isn't as defensively challenging. His greatest asset is his flexibility - making him an everyday player at one position negates that.
  16. arby58
    The issue the article doesn't address is what do the Cardinals want/need that would align with the Twins wants/needs. From looking at the Baseball Trade Values website, they aren't too keen on the Cardinals net assets at either the MLB or MiLB level. It appears starting pitching is an area of need based on their numbers. If so, there is pretty close alignment between the value of Zebby Matthews (15.0) and Burleson (16.5). If the Twins tossed in a lower level prospect (they give Travis Addams a value of 1.4) this would about balance out. Are we willing to give up high-prospect Matthews and another halfway decent one for ANOTHER left handed bat with a fairly pedestrian OPS+? I'm thinking not.
  17. arby58
    I think it is even more. At the least, they will want a proven MLB starting pitcher, at least SWR, and probably the rest of your haul.
  18. arby58
    I highly doubt that would be enough for the Padres. I expect they want at least an MLB pitcher in addition to what you've suggested.
  19. arby58
    It's far easier to drive in yourself than to rely on somebody else having to do that.
  20. arby58
    Ralph Kiner had it right: "Home run hitters drive Cadillacs, singles hitters drive Chevys."
  21. arby58
    Castro scored 6 more runs in 37 less plate appearances. If you equalized the plate appearances and pro-rated the runs scored, Castro would have had 94 runs scored versus Arraez' 83. That would be 9 percent more runs scored, which is not insubstantial.
  22. arby58
    This is an incredible rationalization. It is sort of the baseball HOF version of a Rube Goldberg scheme. Looking at the ballot, I'd be hard pressed (unless you are voting for those who aren't making it because of alleged PED use) to find even six or seven players worthy of a vote, let alone 10. Of those who didn't get in (non-PED players), I'd say Beltran and Jones were as far down the list as I would go. Maybe Manny Ramirez, given it is his 9th season on the ballot, but nobody else really makes sense to align with your scenario.
  23. arby58
    Arraez was in an offense that was 8th in the league in runs scored. The Twins were 10th, so I have a hard time believing his less runs scored were due to the players behind him. He mostly hits singles and doesn't run well. That makes it harder to score runs than if you hit with some power and have some speed. Finally, the fact that Buxton scored himself 18 times versus 4 for Arraez is not an argument in Arraez' favor.
  24. arby58
    My guess is SD wants more than 3, and that is the only deal I'd be offering if I were the Twins. One year rentals are for teams that are legitimate WS contenders. Given the Twins injury concerns among their core offensive players, lack of a right-handed 'big bat' for a corner OF spot or IB, I just don't see it. If the Twins can fill a couple of those holes, their young starting pitching/established pitching might look really good in 2026, especially if Emma/Walker arrive in earnest at that time.
  25. arby58
    Arraez is hardly a 'base runner.' He's slow and doesn't score all that many runs. Last year, he was 4th in MLB in batting average and 39th in runs scored. He had 524 plate appearances for the Padres and scored 61 runs, drove in 41. Byron Buxton topped those totals in 388 plate appearances (scored 62 and drove in 56).
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