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Bailey Ober takes the bump as the Twins try to halt the losing streak. Come join the discussion! ×
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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I'm not sure I would label Larnach's 2024 performance as a 'strong season.' It was certainly better than prior years, but he strikes me as a fourth outfielder/DH type - he's not fleet of foot or a particularly good defensive outfielder. That said, he was better offensively than Kepler and I do think it's time to part company with Max. If that is the case, the Twins are a bit thin in terms of outfield depath, so I doubt Larnach is trade bait in the near future, as Rodriguez, for all his obvious talent, has to show an ability to hit big league pitching and stay healthy. I think it nearly impossible for the Twins to trade Rodriguez - the fan mutiny would be enormous, and the Twins likely would regret it for years to come.
  2. arby58
    The back-to-back extra innings losses to the Guardians September 18th and 19th convinced me they were not going to make the play-offs. They fell apart in extra innings games this year (5-9 record).
  3. arby58
    He has a 3.6 WAR in 79 games. A 4-5 WAR is generally considered All Star level, and he certainly could get to 4 by the end of the year.
  4. arby58
    I think either Correa or Lewis will eventually end up at first base. They are both tall enough (Lewis is 6'2 and Correa 6'4) to have the wingspan to handle errant throws. It'd be great to have Santana around for mentorship for another year, but I agree the Twins may wish to put money elsewhere (or not at all).
  5. arby58
    You're missing the part about Martin having an OPS of .669 and a -0.9 WAR (worst on the team). He has absolutely no value on offense and little value other than 'versatility' on defense.
  6. arby58
    I guess the obvious response is 'small sample size.' Of course, that doesn't mean you aren't on to something here. I certainly hope you are right.
  7. arby58
    Alex Kirilloff is a career 0.2 WAR. Santana is 37.4. His results this year 'slightly above average' in your perspective include among Twins players 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs, 2nd in total bases, and 5th in WAR, at 1.8. Kirilloff is -0.5 WAR. You really think the Twins should have stuck with him given his injuries and form? Santana has been huge in clutch positions - anything similar from Kirilloff? Nope.
  8. arby58
    I've been big on Bailey Ober for a long time, and I have suggested that he is perfectly capable of replacing Gray at (or near) the top of the Twins rotation for a long time. It's worth doing an update on how he is performing versus the pitcher he would 'replace' in that position, Sonny Gray. To date, Ober bests Gray in nearly every pitching category. They both have thrown about the same number of innings - Gray 135.2 and Ober 134. Ober has the better won-loss record, 12-5 to Gray's 11-8. Ober also has the better ERA, 3.49 to 3.91, and ERA+, 118 versus Gray's 108. Gray does best Ober in strikeouts, 168 to 140, but Ober has the better WHIP, 1.000 to 1.113. According to Baseball Reference, this works out to a 2.5 WAR for Ober, while Gray is basically half that much, at 1.2. A final feather in the Ober cap: Ober makes just under $762,000 this year, while Gray will make $10 million. You make the call - I'll take Ober.
  9. arby58
    I don't understand this comment. First, we've seen the (in)effectiveness of both Correa and Buxton when injured (and the number of injuries to Lewis), so the emphasis should be on getting them and keeping them healthy. I also fail to see how being 'less secret' about injuries is an issue - none of us has any effect on the games, and it may well be in the Twins benefit to not reveal some stuff. Bill Belichik was famously tight-lipped about injuries, and nobody ever claimed he didn't want to win.
  10. arby58
    Well, that was my original point, which I know you get. Teams that are in the play-offs or play-offs hunt aren't unloading potential assets. Paddock is still a potential asset come October (and also maybe next year) so he isn't going anywhere, and that is the right move by the Twins given their current station in MLB.
  11. arby58
    Taylor Rodgers, if that is what you are referring to, wasn't a 'good RP' the year they traded him. He went 4-8, 4.76 ERA, with an ERA+ OF 82. Those are awful/semi-awful for a relief pitcher.
  12. arby58
    Kirilloff looks like a player with a great future behind him. Of course, the same was said about Brent Rooker, I saw Kirilloff in a AAA game at Des Moines hit two monster home runs (one that hit off the facing above the left field boxes and required repair) and and a ringing double to the wall in center field. When he was on, he could rake, but he just hasn't been on that much. Seems like injuries are the issue, but there comes a point when you move on, and this seems like the point for the Twins. Maybe he makes it back elsewhere, and that's ok.
  13. arby58
    Lots of people thought we were trading a great closer for him, until Rodgers wasn't.
  14. arby58
    They've got a good core, it's not as if they need to chase starting pitching as long as they keep developing the young pitchers (that is what the Guardians have done for years). I don't see the payroll next year as a red flag.
  15. arby58
    Exactly 'who knows' how to unload players? The Twins seemed to do ok with 'unloading' Cruz. When you're a top team (and the Twins are currently 4th best in the American League) unloading players isn't really your primary concern.
  16. arby58
    $7.5 million isn't a king's ransom for a starting pitcher in today's MLB. The good news is the Twins have lots of young pitchers on minimum salaries, so I wouldn't sweat it. I would take a chance on him coming back next year.
  17. arby58
    As noted, he has a better WAR this season than Berrios, a better ERA and a better WHIP. Why wouldn't you? It's not as if he hasn't been pitching in important games for the Twins. He's been the winning pitcher against Houston (twice) and pitched well in close losses to Cleveland and Philadelphia. Those are all play-off teams. Meanwhile, Berrios' one play-off start for the Twins didn't go so well - 3 innings, 3 earned runs, 1.667 WHIP in a loss to the Yankees (who else?). In fact, he is 0-4 in the post-season between the Twins and Blue Jays, including a loss to the Twins last year.
  18. arby58
    Berrios wasn't the only 'hole' in the rotation the Twins tried to fill - they basically had no rotation. Last year, both Gray and Lopez outperformed him, and this year, SWR has a 1.9 WAR and Berrios a 1.6.
  19. arby58
    Say what?? If you're figuring out who won a trade, you examine both sides of the ledger.
  20. arby58
    I like the store front window sign. Of course, not all (maybe not even most) of these will pan out, but it sure feels different than the pipeline from the prior era.
  21. arby58
    Fair enough, but Berrios' starting pitching time with Toronto has averaged out to a 4.40 ERA - he hasn't been 'lights out' for the Blue Jays either.
  22. arby58
    It's hard to call a 26 year old pitcher who's been in the major leagues for parts of three seasons a 'young pitching prospect.' If you want another 'up and comer' rather than an 'up and downer' what about Andrew Morris?
  23. arby58
    How so? We only trailed for a half inning in this game.
  24. arby58
    I've been high on Santana since they signed him, and he continues to deliver in a lot of games. It's good to have players who have been there before.
  25. arby58
    If you don't think it relevant, why were you responding in the first place?
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