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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    While everybody can lose a ball in the sun, the thing I saw with him last year was poor footwork and being 'lost' in judging ball flights.
  2. arby58
    Gordon is not a good MLB player. Last year, in Miami, he had a .627 OPS, 68 OPS+ and a -1.7 WAR. He wasn't a good outfielder either, with a -6 defensive runs saved that would have translated into a -13 DRS over a 1,200 inning season. That dog won't hunt.
  3. arby58
    I sure didn't see anything in his favor in the outfield eye test last year. I suppose there is really no place to go but up. Baseball reference had him at -13 defensive runs saved for his playing time in the outfield and translates that into -30 defensive runs saved over a 1,200 inning year. There is general agreement that Margot was not a good outfielder last year - but he was -3 DRS for his playing time, which would have translated into -5 for a 1,200 inning year.
  4. arby58
    90th percentile exit velocity isolates the 10 percent of fair ball contact for a hitter and averages it. Since there is a clear correlation between high exit velocity and positive hitting outcomes, it is a useful tool. The article doesn't identify what they are in miles per hour for both players.
  5. arby58
    Graterol appeared in 82 minor league games and exactly half (41) was as a starting pitcher. Then, in 10 appearances with the Twins he was solely a relief pitcher. Raya has appeared in 66 minor league games, 64 as a starter. I would suggest that is A LOT more suggestion they consider him a starting pitcher than they did with Graterol.
  6. arby58
    Ober pitched 56 innings over 11 starts in 2022 - that hardly compares to SWR's 28 starts and 134 innings. If you found that 'far more impressive' my response would be 'small sample size.'
  7. arby58
    He's a right handed thrower and not particularly tall, neither of which is ideal for 1B. They tried Julien at 1B in 42 games in 2021, then a combined 12 games in 2022-2024. It looks like the Twins (even though strongly valuing positional flexibility) learned that Julien was not 1B material.
  8. arby58
    I suppose it's possible, although my guess would be if they keep him with the major league team, they park him in the bullpen while Stewart gets back into pitching shape. He's intriguing, but his minor league stats include exactly the same number of starts (36) as Matthews, and Mathews' minor league stats were better. Maybe they work out a trade with the Phillies? I think Paddock is a completely different set of circumstances.
  9. arby58
    Now understanding this is all hypothetical, I don't understand any decision making process - at least based on MLB performance - where SWR ends up back in AAA in 2025. He started 28 games for the Twins last year and threw 133.2 innings, so he's not a flash in the pan. Further, it's clear he wore down at the end of 2024, which inflated his season ERA. After beating the Padres on August 21, where he went 5 innings, he did not go 5 innings in his last 6 starts (and less than 4 in 3 of them), he had 2 losses and his ERA went up to 4.17. Further, in those starts he threw no more than 72 pitches. I view him sort of like Ober, where the Twins built him up to 178.2 innings pitched in MLB last year - my guess is they do the same with SWR this year.
  10. arby58
    Nice piece - I was surprised that Kaelen Culpepper wasn't on the list. Thoughts there?
  11. arby58
    He'll still be doing it in spring training, not the real thing - maybe see it a bit longer than 36 games that count. Reminds me of Allen Iverson's 'we're talkin' about practice, not the game.'
  12. arby58
    This just keeps getting better and better - or is it the other way around? Reminds me of Yogi's quip that nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded.
  13. arby58
    I've never before read a post that admitted their grading system was 'totally made up and almost completely arbitrary.'
  14. arby58
    He's started a grand total of 36 games between the minors and the 9 he started for the Twins last year. Last year, he was clearly overmatched at the MLB level. It's hard to judge expected MLB performance by games in the Grapefruit league - you don't consistently see major league hitters, and you're rarely going to go through the lineup more than once. So I don't have a problem with the Twins 'stashing' him at St. Paul even if he has a great spring training. The Twins have at least six starting pitchers with more experience, and sometimes pitchers do need more of it to perform well at the MLB level.
  15. arby58
    I've always found it interesting that the Wilfs are generally considered great owners by Minnesota sports fans and the Pohlads are considered the opposite. It's not as if the Vikings have had all that much more success than the Twins. I think the answer is two words: salary cap. You can't complain about the Vikings spending, because of the cap. Not so for the Twins.
  16. arby58
    I'm pretty sure most do. If they truly want 'to do anything they wish' there are more enlightened (and for that matter entertaining) options. I mentioned this elsewhere, but most of a billionaire's net worth is tied up in illiquid assets. That means either liquidating stock/options (with the tax implications - they'd rather hold them and borrow against them so when they leave this earth stepped up basis means never having to say you're sorry about capital gains) or getting financing for what could be hundreds of millions of dollars. In that case, the billionaire has to take into consideration paying off the note - and from what? If the team is a bottom line loser AND they're paying off a nine figure note . . . it can seriously crimp even a billionaire's lifestyle. I know there are a few owners who treat this as a 'hobby horse,' but if you look at team spending, it generally aligns with revenue.
  17. arby58
    Even your run-of-the-mill billionaire doesn't have $1.5 billion in liquid assets, so it's likely they have to arrange financing, which means even $100-$200 million in the difference can mean a lot more when you build in those costs (and it isn't as cheap to borrow money as it was a few years ago).
  18. arby58
    He did a good job in Texas, and I liked him as a player for the Twins as well - not much offense but positionally flexible (sound familiar?) and a 'good guy.'
  19. arby58
    They keep advancing him and making him a starting pitcher. Those seem to be treating him like a starting pitcher. His innings per start were ramped up as the year went along last year - none of that suggests they view him as anything but a starting pitcher.
  20. arby58
    I don't understand the 5 man rotation without either SWR or Festa. I would have it as Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddock - and if Paddock is traded, Festa. I'd also put Matthews in front of Raya in the AAA pecking order.
  21. arby58
    I'm also tired of going around in circles on this. OF COURSE he hired him - that's the 'get his approval' part. Taylor still owned the team. Fine, L&AR were involved, even brought it to him, but he still had to make the decision, and it could have been no. Meanwhile, he had been in charge in 2019 when they drafted Edwards number one and drafted other key pieces. That said, I'm no longer responding - my first post was I didn't believe Taylor would be interested in the buying the team, so why don't we get back to the issue of who might.
  22. arby58
    You want to look at what is mostly ancient history, and I want to look at the past few years. It's sort of the HOF peak period versus career Yin and Yang. In the last three years, the T-wolves have been much better than the Twins in terms of results - and they may well be this year as well. Picking Edwards was an important decision, and there were plenty suggesting they take Ball or Wiseman, neither of which has had the career (or the upside potential of Ant. Connelly also made some trades that many fans disliked (a lot), and you know that Taylor had to sign off on those as well. As somebody recently said, 'flags fly forever' and I'd give the T'wolves at the moment a better chance to fly a flag in the near future than the Twins. If they do, the 'horrible owner' thing starts to sound off-key.
  23. arby58
    https://hoopshype.com/rumor/lamelo-ball-favorite-for-no-1-pick/ https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2020/4/8/21211341/lamelo-ball-nba-draft-mock-scouting-report-highlights-video https://www.si.com/nba/2019/12/02/lamelo-ball-nba-draft-potential-first-pick https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30217723/source-minnesota-timberwolves-meet-potential-no-1-pick-lamelo-ball
  24. arby58
    So what? They were minority owners, and Taylor had to approve it - and he did.
  25. arby58
    Taylor still had to approve it - and he did. I'm not suggesting Taylor should buy the Twins, but his tenure with the T'wolves, once he turned over the decisions to Connelly, have been just fine. You also gloss over that Edwards was a brilliant draft selection, and that was in 2019 - well before the 2021 buy in by Lore and ARod. If they had selected anybody else, they would not have been in the Final Four last year.
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