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Bailey Ober takes the bump as the Twins try to halt the losing streak. Come join the discussion! ×
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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    That wasn't the 'fact' you provided without foundation, but feel free to amend your complaint.
  2. arby58
    I just looked it up there: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=varlan000lou Last night's performance was better, to be sure, but he's still 0-5 on the season. Hard to get excited about that.
  3. arby58
    Assumes facts that have not been introduced as evidence.
  4. arby58
    Add his 2024 AAA stats - there he was 4-8, 4.91 ERA, 1.432 ERA in 72.1 innings. Like him a lot better now?
  5. arby58
    Repetition isn't argumentation. You presented nothing new here. Ignoring the money saved and how it was spent in the trade calculus is, in fact, not candid or sincere (i.e., disingenuous).
  6. arby58
    So you 'like' the fact that he's been up for 7.2 innings, has a 5.87 ERA, and 1.826 WHIP? If that is 'someone plausible' give me someone who is implausible.
  7. arby58
    First, Farmer was on the roster with Polanco in 2023, and he would have been on the roster in 2024 regardless of trade/no trade. It's fine that you felt Polanco was the better hitter in March, but it's hard to understand how you can feel that way in August. Even with a bit of uptick of late, his OPS is .645, OPS+ is 88, and WAR is 0.5. Santana is .749, 109, and 1.8. His defense is also not nearly that of Santana's. Given that you admit the Twins used the savings to sign Santana, it is disingenuous to claim the Mariners won the trade because Polanco is the only player in the trade active at the MLB level.
  8. arby58
    They used the money saved to sign Santana, and he made the Twins better. If you say Santana wasn't part of the trade, you are just parsing words - the only way they could sign him was by shedding Polanco's salary.
  9. arby58
    The savings is exactly what they are paying Carlos Santana, and he is having a solid year. Topa is still under contract at a reasonable salary and can be expected to also provide some return. Polanco is 0.3 WAR for the year (Santana is 1.8). End of discussion.
  10. arby58
    The Twins were a sub .500 team in 2018, so it's hard to see how they expected to be immediately competitive after trading one of their better players. I agree that in the end this worked out fine for both teams. In four years, Berrios in Toronto is 38-32, with a 4.20 ERA. That is ok but not exactly lights out.
  11. arby58
    True - the Escobar trade didn't look so great in 2018, until Duran became a quality relief pitcher in 2022. Same with the Pressly trade, but Alcala is finally making it look a bit more balanced.
  12. arby58
    Obviously, I 'just quoted stats' but if the goal of the game is to score more runs than the other team, those are the two most impactful stats. Part of the issue at the moment is they are missing their most valuable offensive player. Getting him back should be a 'wake up call' for the offense. That said, they are scoring enough runs, statistically speaking - I don't know how you can argue with that given their league placement in that statistic.
  13. arby58
    The bats haven't been the problem - Twins are 4th in the AL in runs scored. Pitching is the problem - 10th in the AL in ERA.
  14. arby58
    At this point in the season, it's not a 'big bucks' issue (if it ever was). Margot's OPS versus left handed starting pitching is .847, and that is why he is batting lead-off in those situations. He has some value (although not nearly as much against right handers), and if part of a platoon, he's effective. If the left-handed outfielders (Kepler in particular) were performing as well against right handed pitching, the Twins would be just fine offensively. Kepler's OPS versus right handed starting pitching is .687. Unlike his career splits, he is doing better this year against left handed starting pitching. You can't blame the Twins for not seeing that in their pre-season crystal ball.
  15. arby58
    September 1 expansion is to 28 players, so only two more, and no more than 14 pitchers. My guess is the Twins will add another pitcher, so that only leaves 1 slot for a position player come September 1st.
  16. arby58
    Santana is a big guy and isn't exactly gazelle-like. My guess is there is a lot Santana can teach him about playing the position.
  17. arby58
    He is stiff in the outfield, but he has a cannon for an arm. If he eventually ended up at 1B (given his height), that would be ok if he is an .850 OPS guy. Have Santana work with him.
  18. arby58
    When you have an OPS approaching 1.000, you live with the Ks. In 1982, Reggie Jackson (the all-time leader in striking out) fanned 156 times - but also had 39 HR, 101 RBIs, a .907 OPS and finished 6th in MVP voting. Do you think anybody wished they had a Bert Campaneris-type guy in the line-up instead?
  19. arby58
    Dismissing the latest starts for a pitcher when they don't match your take on that pitcher is the epitome statistical rationalization. Meanwhile, you really should write to Baseball-Reference.com and tell them the headline stats they quote for pitchers are all wrong.
  20. arby58
    You've got to get there before you worry about the play-offs. The Twins are still in a fight for the play-offs. This isn't the time for experimentation.
  21. arby58
    I don't think he has been appointed the ace, although his 89 pitch complete game was pretty impressive. I still think Lopez is the guy you send out there for game one of a play-off series, and his recent results suggest he has 'figured it out' compared to earlier in the year. Ober as a legitimate number two sounds right. Last year, I think the 'lost confidence' was an innings fatigue thing. Now he's stretched out.
  22. arby58
    Isn't that a bit of rationalization? If mine is optimism fill in the blank on what yours is - 'a couple rough starts in a row' is not relevant? And what about the WAR? Ober's 1.8 to 1.1 is certainly relevant.
  23. arby58
    I've been high on Ober for a long time and have often made the case that Ober's stats aligned pretty well with Gray's last year (other than ERA, where his was still quite good). Turns out that is the case this year as well: Ober 1.8 WAR (Gray 1.1), 10-5 (Gray 10-6) 3.76 ERA (Gray 3.79), 115 Ks (Gray 111), WHIP 1.009 (Gray 1.101). Yep, the Twins found their replacement for Sonny. Now if SWR is the replacement for last year's Ober, they'll be fine.
  24. arby58
    They won a play-off series last year, and they were quite competitive with Houston, which most last year considered 'top tier.' That said, what about this team screams 'this year' rather than,, say, next year? They'll have the whole starting pitching staff back next year, and there is reason to believe they will get better. Same with their young core. I'm certainly not thinking they should trade away top prospects for a rental, (even a good one) to 'go for it all' this year. I'm sure the requests for top flight rental starting pitchers begin with an ask for some combination of an Emmanuel Rodriguez or Luke Keaschall (assuming 'everybody knows' Jenkins and Lee are untouchable) and another Raya or Soto (or both).
  25. arby58
    The X post indicates that the Twins are 16th in baseball in terms of percentage of revenue devoted to payroll - and just a fraction from 15th. That suggests 'mid-market' to me, and the various statistical gyrations to suggest they aren't meeting payroll expectations aren't all that impressive. Media market size, for example doesn't really matter other than what you can get in payment from media for broadcasting the team, and we've seen that $ eroding, not growing. As that graph suggests, payroll doesn't necessarily translate into great results - witness the two teams at the top of the payroll as a percentage of revenue. Last year, the top three teams in terms of payroll all missed the play-offs. There are lots of other areas of investment that are also important, including the farm system. The Twins have pretty consistently ranked in the upper half (or better) for farm systems. They are turning out some pretty good young talent, and it appears more is on the way. Sure, a 'big splash' would be great (wait, wasn't that Correa?), but making the play-offs on a pretty consistent basis is a decent product, which is what the mid-market Twins have done of late.
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